# Ensemble streamflow reconstruction for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ; time period, water years 1-1905 CE #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Service for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # Template Version 4.0 # Encoding: UTF-8 # NOTE: Please cite original publication, NOAA Landing Page URL, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. # If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, study title, NOAA Landing Page URL, and date accessed. # # Description/Documentation lines begin with '#' followed by a space # Data lines have no '#' # # NOAA_Landing_Page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/36093 # Landing_Page_Description: NOAA Landing Page of this file's parent study, which includes all study metadata. # # Study_Level_JSON_Metadata: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/json/noaa-recon-36093.json # Study_Level_JSON_Description: JSON metadata of this data file's parent study, which includes all study metadata. # # Data_Type: Climate Reconstructions # # Dataset_DOI: 10.25921/6vba-4g33 # # Science_Keywords: streamflow reconstruction, hydrology, drought #--------------------------------------- # Resource_Links # # Data_Download_Resource: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/gangopadhyay2022/gangopadhyay2022-leesferry-bcm-cv-conflimits.txt # Data_Download_Description: NOAA Template File; Lees Ferry Streamflow (bcm) Cross Validation Ensemble Members Confidence Limits # #--------------------------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2022-03-16 #--------------------------------------- # File_Last_Modified_Date # Date: 2022-07-08 #--------------------------------------- # Title # Study_Name: Ensemble streamflow reconstruction for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ; time period, water years 1-1905 CE #--------------------------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Routson, Cody C.; Meko, David M. #--------------------------------------- # Description_Notes_and_Keywords # Description: Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA; https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/22454; last accessed, 2020/08/28); 125 grid points from the LBDA archive for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) domain were used in developing the streamflow reconstruction. #--------------------------------------- # Publication # Authors: Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Routson, Cody C.; Meko David M. # Published_Date_or_Year: 2022-06-16 # Published_Title: Tree Rings Reveal Unmatched 2nd Century Drought in the Colorado River Basin # Journal_Name: Geophysical Research Letters # Volume: 49 # Edition: # Issue: 11 # Pages: # Report_Number: e2022GL098781 # DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098781 # Online_Resource: # Full_Citation: # Abstract: The ongoing 22-year drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has been extremely severe, even in the context of the longest available tree-ring reconstruction of annual flow at Lees Ferry, Arizona, dating back to 762 CE. While many southwestern drought assessments have been limited to the past 1,200 years, longer paleorecords of moisture variability do exist for the UCRB. Here, gridded drought-atlas data in the UCRB domain along with naturalized streamflow data from the instrumental period (1906–2021) are used in a K-nearest neighbor nonparametric algorithm to develop a streamflow reconstruction for the Lees Ferry gage starting in 1 CE. The reconstruction reveals a second-century drought unmatched in severity by the current drought or by well-documented medieval period droughts in the UCRB. Although data are sparse, analysis of individual long tree-ring records and other paleoclimatic data also support the occurrence of an exceptional second-century drought. #--------------------------------------- # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: # Grant: #--------------------------------------- # Site_Information # Site_Name: Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ # Location: Arizona # Northernmost_Latitude: 36.864333 # Southernmost_Latitude: 36.864333 # Easternmost_Longitude: -111.587872 # Westernmost_Longitude: -111.587872 # Elevation_m: 939.6984 #--------------------------------------- # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Lees Ferry streamflow(bcm) CrossValid ConfLimits Gangopadhyay2022 # First_Year: 1906 # Last_Year: 2017 # Time_Unit: year Common Era # Core_Length_m: # Parameter_Keywords: streamflow # Notes: #--------------------------------------- # Chronology_Information # Chronology: #--------------------------------------- # Variables # PaST_Thesaurus_Download_Resource: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/skos/past-thesaurus.rdf # PaST_Thesaurus_Download_Description: Paleoenvironmental Standard Terms (PaST) Thesaurus terms, definitions, and relationships in SKOS format. # # Data variables follow that are preceded by "##" in columns one and two. # Variables list, one per line, shortname-tab-var components: what, material, error, units, seasonality, data type, detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data) # ## wyr age,,,year Common Era,annual,climate reconstructions;tree ring,,,N,The years correspond to water years. The years correspond to water years. The term "water year" is defined as the 12-month period October 1 through September 30 of the following year. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. ## ensmean streamflow,,percentile,cubic meter,annual,climate reconstructions;tree ring,,,N,x1e9 units; ensemble mean ## lbe streamflow,,percentile,cubic meter,annual,climate reconstructions;tree ring,,,N,x1e9 units; lower confidence limit (5th-percentile) ## ube streamflow,,percentile,cubic meter,annual,climate reconstructions;tree ring,,,N,x1e9 units; upper confidence limit (95th-percentile) #------------------------ # Data: # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing_Values: None wyr ensmean lbe ube 1906 20.799697 17.826873 29.806664 1907 24.400752 20.640459 29.255874 1908 22.274160 18.656485 29.417584 1909 20.296621 14.522934 22.102053 1910 19.783141 16.552074 21.907603 1911 20.908285 14.522934 29.417584 1912 23.722849 17.438451 29.806664 1913 21.719149 18.571038 24.930380 1914 23.844508 20.640459 29.255874 1915 25.919537 20.428484 29.255874 1916 23.522049 17.826873 29.806664 1917 22.287016 14.522934 27.047720 1918 19.863358 16.452927 26.878955 1919 17.431743 13.643184 20.617972 1920 23.022184 17.826873 29.417584 1921 22.636919 17.438451 29.255874 1922 16.769809 13.643184 20.617972 1923 15.485753 13.643184 20.617972 1924 21.455790 16.792052 26.878955 1925 14.227948 10.647413 18.305633 1926 20.979980 17.465033 25.718123 1927 22.852031 17.465033 26.117197 1928 21.486354 20.042355 26.940963 1929 18.655987 18.071644 22.849502 1930 19.912520 16.792052 26.878955 1931 15.773420 10.647413 20.296727 1932 24.616625 20.809814 26.117197 1933 15.642333 14.380289 20.118610 1934 11.651863 6.699168 14.335934 1935 15.503981 13.644204 20.127516 1936 13.143255 11.346858 15.555092 1937 21.442097 19.552218 26.117197 1938 20.665689 14.522934 29.417584 1939 14.270469 10.647413 17.373835 1940 15.164543 10.647413 17.373835 1941 23.225674 17.438451 29.255874 1942 23.220504 17.438451 29.255874 1943 19.531977 15.184051 22.849502 1944 18.797104 16.552074 20.809814 1945 20.693079 16.552074 21.907603 1946 14.929455 11.346858 17.911896 1947 20.243140 17.465033 25.738077 1948 19.273856 16.552074 24.930380 1949 24.136690 17.438451 29.255874 1950 15.557977 10.939342 20.296727 1951 14.255970 11.243428 17.911896 1952 21.184088 17.465033 26.117197 1953 15.220765 10.647413 17.373835 1954 11.596206 10.396903 14.335934 1955 13.561606 11.243428 17.911896 1956 10.772833 8.128263 12.871746 1957 20.100704 18.571038 20.921649 1958 21.856881 17.851159 24.930380 1959 11.455501 10.242818 14.335934 1960 15.959802 13.644204 17.632389 1961 15.013641 11.243428 17.373835 1962 18.256697 16.552074 20.462947 1963 13.628025 11.346858 17.911896 1964 13.057456 11.243428 17.911896 1965 24.055220 17.826873 29.806664 1966 16.592001 13.812568 22.849502 1967 18.309599 13.643184 22.606565 1968 18.119426 13.812568 22.849502 1969 22.880202 18.656485 29.806664 1970 17.839766 16.552074 20.809814 1971 14.251030 10.647413 20.296727 1972 17.201700 14.773732 20.296727 1973 21.734401 17.826873 29.806664 1974 14.179081 10.647413 20.296727 1975 22.341057 17.826873 29.806664 1976 18.440394 13.643184 22.606565 1977 10.614979 8.128263 14.335934 1978 16.921583 13.643184 22.849502 1979 21.228769 17.465033 25.942027 1980 23.144663 17.465033 26.940963 1981 15.990673 10.939342 18.305633 1982 19.055233 13.812568 22.849502 1983 22.079940 17.438451 28.003783 1984 22.127337 17.826873 29.417584 1985 20.483863 17.465033 25.718123 1986 24.062274 17.851159 26.117197 1987 20.431645 17.318328 24.930380 1988 17.274065 13.644204 20.296727 1989 12.349185 10.242818 15.555092 1990 11.422503 10.242818 14.335934 1991 13.814573 11.243428 17.373835 1992 15.398750 14.380289 17.632389 1993 22.804819 17.465033 26.117197 1994 13.193978 11.243428 17.911896 1995 21.369081 17.826873 29.806664 1996 13.335422 11.243428 17.373835 1997 22.315660 17.465033 27.577099 1998 19.940555 17.851159 24.930380 1999 22.474667 17.465033 25.942027 2000 13.993892 11.403646 17.911896 2001 12.555687 11.243428 17.911896 2002 9.491841 6.699168 14.335934 2003 11.607534 10.242818 14.335934 2004 11.840361 10.242818 15.351531 2005 19.500888 17.318328 20.809814 2006 13.718112 11.346858 17.911896 2007 12.636609 11.243428 17.373835 2008 15.161792 13.644204 20.296727 2009 16.463195 14.773732 20.296727 2010 19.692363 13.812568 22.849502 2011 24.211037 17.851159 27.577099 2012 12.163768 8.128263 14.335934 2013 11.369121 10.242818 14.335934 2014 14.567523 11.346858 17.325730 2015 19.533484 17.318328 24.930380 2016 15.683838 14.380289 20.118610 2017 16.306529 15.187523 18.305633