RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ553I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ553I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 686 1 Snow Bowl, San.Fr. Peak DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 686 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3150 3526-11012 1453 1983 686 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 686011 1453 1983 531 3.462 0.206 1.576 12.776 0.041 0.496 2 686012 1565 1983 419 3.396 0.203 0.273 2.845 0.039 0.639 3 686021 1768 1983 216 3.139 0.187 1.130 8.770 0.044 0.385 4 686022 1728 1983 256 3.206 0.219 0.312 3.044 0.039 0.720 5 686031 1766 1983 218 3.088 0.265 2.521 15.077 0.049 0.621 6 686032 1758 1983 226 2.888 0.215 1.414 5.762 0.045 0.700 7 686041 1735 1983 249 3.022 0.348 -0.199 2.679 0.042 0.894 8 686042 1734 1983 250 3.210 0.256 0.315 3.143 0.043 0.756 9 686051 1611 1983 373 3.052 0.192 0.114 2.692 0.040 0.673 10 686052 1635 1983 349 3.161 0.254 0.461 2.792 0.042 0.769 11 686061 1745 1983 239 3.046 0.196 0.334 2.999 0.048 0.502 12 686062 1724 1983 260 3.025 0.210 0.879 5.779 0.048 0.547 13 686081 1692 1983 292 3.538 0.210 0.795 4.327 0.043 0.529 14 686082 1665 1983 319 3.237 0.226 0.464 4.638 0.042 0.613 15 686091 1761 1983 223 3.214 0.299 1.467 6.766 0.055 0.624 16 686092 1780 1983 204 3.051 0.234 0.163 3.783 0.056 0.544 17 686101 1640 1983 344 2.845 0.197 0.305 3.420 0.055 0.455 18 686102 1587 1983 397 3.204 0.344 0.613 2.601 0.042 0.881 19 686111 1696 1983 288 3.113 0.456 2.190 7.709 0.045 0.905 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 686112 1721 1983 263 3.102 0.294 0.521 3.089 0.048 0.778 21 686122 1711 1983 273 3.119 0.259 0.969 3.473 0.039 0.818 22 686131 1599 1962 364 3.305 0.216 0.507 3.784 0.042 0.630 23 686132 1633 1983 351 3.402 0.192 0.273 3.086 0.043 0.507 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1453 TO 1983 531 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 300 3.166 0.247 0.756 5.002 0.045 0.651 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.171 0.065 0.681 3.309 0.005 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 273 3.139 0.219 0.507 3.473 0.043 0.630 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 106 0.174 0.057 0.741 2.749 0.007 0.226 MINIMUM VALUE 204 2.845 0.187 -0.199 2.601 0.039 0.385 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 244 3.051 0.204 0.308 3.022 0.042 0.536 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 350 3.226 0.262 1.050 5.771 0.048 0.762 MAXIMUM VALUE 531 3.538 0.456 2.521 15.077 0.056 0.905 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.180 0.229 0.014 -0.278 2.975 -0.550 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.550 SERIES 686041 AND 686122 249 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 686091 AND 686092 204 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 6. 21. 28. 36. 55. 136. 171. 253. 253. RBAR 0.529 0.164 0.104 0.194 0.220 0.230 0.274 0.188 0.255 0.337 SDEV 0.000 0.197 0.252 0.278 0.381 0.300 0.233 0.280 0.259 0.224 SERR 0.000 0.080 0.055 0.053 0.064 0.040 0.020 0.021 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.825 0.557 0.491 0.697 0.769 0.822 0.881 0.838 0.888 0.921 NSS 4.2 6.4 8.3 9.5 11.8 15.5 19.6 22.3 23.0 23.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.366 0.393 0.368 0.344 SDEV 0.212 0.222 0.217 0.234 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.930 0.937 0.930 0.923 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1453 1983 531 3.287 0.214 1.077 4.434 0.034 0.730 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.581 -0.352 1.364 74 457 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.88 1.00 1.05 1.93 17.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.31 0.00 0.63 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 273. 106. 204. 244. 350. 531. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.728 0.640 0.631 0.645 0.665 0.686 0.650 0.625 0.662 0.649 PACF 0.728 0.233 0.235 0.216 0.211 0.213 0.065 0.055 0.170 0.044 95% C.L. 0.087 0.125 0.147 0.166 0.184 0.202 0.218 0.233 0.245 0.258 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.643 0.348 0.015 0.077 0.104 0.121 0.192 0.072 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 686011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015622 3.50390983 2 686012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023455 3.44553280 3 686021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071845 3.06153917 4 686022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00153367 3.00870395 5 686031 1 2.37432551 0.27467096 0.00000000 3.05343437 6 686032 1 1.03839171 0.12751316 0.00000000 2.85431337 7 686041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00359264 2.57328963 8 686042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041932 3.15705538 9 686051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088416 3.21718717 10 686052 1 0.54973245 0.00718053 0.00000000 2.96034408 11 686061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087137 3.15092468 12 686062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069886 2.93383694 13 686081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010250 3.55282378 14 686082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019609 3.20558405 15 686091 1 0.97529668 0.04495141 0.00000000 3.11927676 16 686092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166754 3.22170734 17 686101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034492 2.90467310 18 686102 1 1.09238124 0.00517720 0.00000000 2.74157500 19 686111 1 1.77758741 0.02455576 0.00000000 2.86541271 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 686112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265458 3.45219135 21 686122 1 0.69559717 0.00731284 0.00000000 2.81946778 22 686131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088271 3.14401555 23 686132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049543 3.31442785 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 686011 1453 1983 531 1.000 0.059 1.614 13.845 0.041 0.487 2 686012 1565 1983 419 1.000 0.059 0.346 2.869 0.039 0.631 3 686021 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.058 1.076 9.143 0.043 0.346 4 686022 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.059 0.607 3.761 0.039 0.602 5 686031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.062 0.415 2.981 0.048 0.484 6 686032 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.061 0.769 3.724 0.044 0.569 7 686041 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.076 0.293 2.880 0.042 0.755 8 686042 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.079 0.292 3.108 0.043 0.747 9 686051 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.055 0.313 3.006 0.040 0.573 10 686052 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.067 0.159 2.971 0.041 0.655 11 686061 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.061 0.392 2.953 0.048 0.451 12 686062 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.068 1.283 7.870 0.048 0.516 13 686081 1692 1983 292 1.000 0.059 0.761 4.245 0.043 0.525 14 686082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.070 0.577 4.754 0.042 0.609 15 686091 1761 1983 223 1.000 0.070 0.471 3.239 0.055 0.468 16 686092 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.069 -0.073 4.396 0.056 0.446 17 686101 1640 1983 344 1.000 0.068 0.384 3.577 0.054 0.440 18 686102 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.068 0.516 3.359 0.042 0.703 19 686111 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.065 0.530 4.280 0.045 0.578 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 686112 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.068 0.693 3.514 0.048 0.583 21 686122 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.062 0.430 2.925 0.038 0.668 22 686131 1599 1962 364 1.000 0.059 0.527 4.402 0.042 0.553 23 686132 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.054 0.368 3.118 0.043 0.476 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 300 1.000 0.064 0.554 4.388 0.044 0.559 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.006 0.367 2.584 0.005 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.062 0.471 3.514 0.043 0.569 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 106 0.000 0.009 0.293 1.345 0.006 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 204 1.000 0.054 -0.073 2.869 0.038 0.346 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.059 0.357 2.994 0.041 0.480 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 350 1.000 0.068 0.650 4.338 0.048 0.620 MAXIMUM VALUE 531 1.000 0.079 1.614 13.845 0.056 0.755 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 686011 -67 355 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 686012 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 686021 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 686022 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 686031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 686032 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 686041 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 686042 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 686051 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 686052 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 686061 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 686062 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 686081 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 686082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 686091 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 686092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 686101 -67 230 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 686102 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 686111 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 686112 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 686122 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 686131 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 686132 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 686011 1453 1983 531 1.000 0.056 1.696 14.557 0.041 0.433 2 686012 1565 1983 419 1.000 0.048 -0.081 3.039 0.039 0.439 3 686021 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.055 1.105 9.976 0.043 0.291 4 686022 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.052 0.669 3.950 0.039 0.505 5 686031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.052 0.791 4.402 0.048 0.271 6 686032 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.050 0.660 3.750 0.044 0.374 7 686041 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.058 0.685 4.299 0.042 0.579 8 686042 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.051 0.324 4.469 0.043 0.411 9 686051 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.052 0.250 3.050 0.040 0.525 10 686052 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.062 0.201 3.277 0.041 0.599 11 686061 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.057 0.429 3.009 0.048 0.376 12 686062 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.058 0.930 6.418 0.048 0.368 13 686081 1692 1983 292 1.000 0.056 0.839 4.644 0.043 0.473 14 686082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.060 1.453 9.455 0.042 0.472 15 686091 1761 1983 223 1.000 0.066 0.357 3.383 0.055 0.397 16 686092 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.065 -0.131 4.712 0.056 0.386 17 686101 1640 1983 344 1.000 0.062 0.452 3.795 0.054 0.327 18 686102 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.064 0.480 3.304 0.042 0.671 19 686111 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.064 0.616 4.639 0.045 0.559 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 686112 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.064 0.644 3.447 0.048 0.524 21 686122 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.055 0.453 3.153 0.038 0.588 22 686131 1599 1962 364 1.000 0.054 0.749 5.466 0.042 0.467 23 686132 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.048 0.542 3.838 0.043 0.320 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 300 1.000 0.057 0.614 4.958 0.044 0.450 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.006 0.422 2.788 0.005 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.056 0.616 3.950 0.043 0.439 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 106 0.000 0.010 0.377 1.334 0.006 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 204 1.000 0.048 -0.131 3.009 0.038 0.271 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.052 0.393 3.343 0.041 0.375 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 350 1.000 0.062 0.770 4.678 0.048 0.524 MAXIMUM VALUE 531 1.000 0.066 1.696 14.557 0.056 0.671 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.276 0.125 0.008 -0.204 3.383 -0.132 0.679 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.132 SERIES 686022 AND 686102 256 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.679 SERIES 686091 AND 686092 204 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 6. 21. 28. 36. 55. 136. 171. 253. 253. RBAR 0.537 0.151 0.115 0.193 0.243 0.278 0.292 0.223 0.267 0.362 SDEV 0.000 0.159 0.251 0.297 0.304 0.209 0.220 0.249 0.239 0.213 SERR 0.000 0.065 0.055 0.056 0.051 0.028 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.830 0.533 0.520 0.695 0.791 0.856 0.890 0.865 0.893 0.929 NSS 4.2 6.4 8.3 9.5 11.8 15.5 19.6 22.3 23.0 23.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.379 0.402 0.373 0.363 SDEV 0.210 0.218 0.197 0.204 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.934 0.939 0.932 0.929 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1453 1983 531 1.000 0.042 0.488 3.856 0.037 0.323 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.010 -0.005 0.040 127 404 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.62 1.00 1.05 1.67 5.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.322 0.123 0.055 0.064 0.118 0.144 0.090 0.104 0.131 0.086 PACF 0.322 0.021 0.010 0.046 0.092 0.085 0.010 0.065 0.080 0.004 95% C.L. 0.087 0.095 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.102 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.106 0.325 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.254 0.056 -0.062 -0.033 0.007 -0.009 0.027 0.103 0.025 -0.006 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.254 2 0.256 -0.009 3 0.256 0.011 -0.079 4 0.256 0.011 -0.080 0.003 5 0.256 0.013 -0.080 -0.003 0.022 6 0.256 0.013 -0.082 -0.003 0.027 -0.022 7 0.257 0.012 -0.082 0.000 0.027 -0.030 0.033 8 0.254 0.015 -0.085 0.000 0.035 -0.032 0.008 0.099 9 0.257 0.015 -0.086 0.001 0.035 -0.034 0.008 0.106 -0.031 10 0.256 0.016 -0.085 0.001 0.035 -0.034 0.007 0.107 -0.028 -0.011 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2602.47 2569.06 2571.01 2569.66 2571.66 2573.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2575.15 2576.58 2573.40 2574.88 2576.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.254 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.45 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.90 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.254 0.065 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 686011 1 0.200 0.436 2 686012 1 0.209 0.443 3 686021 1 0.094 0.292 4 686022 1 0.318 0.510 5 686031 1 0.146 0.272 6 686032 1 0.161 0.375 7 686041 1 0.341 0.583 8 686042 1 0.174 0.414 9 686051 1 0.283 0.526 10 686052 1 0.388 0.604 11 686061 1 0.143 0.378 12 686062 1 0.150 0.368 13 686081 1 0.261 0.475 14 686082 1 0.230 0.473 15 686091 1 0.168 0.402 16 686092 1 0.181 0.386 17 686101 1 0.117 0.327 18 686102 1 0.493 0.672 19 686111 1 0.325 0.562 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 686112 1 0.289 0.524 21 686122 1 0.375 0.591 22 686131 1 0.231 0.468 23 686132 1 0.111 0.320 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.234 0.452 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 0.107 MEDIAN 1 0.209 0.443 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.148 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.094 0.272 LOWER HINGE 1 0.156 0.376 UPPER HINGE 1 0.304 0.525 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.493 0.672 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 686011 1453 1983 531 1.000 0.050 2.057 19.317 0.050 -0.052 2 686012 1565 1983 419 1.000 0.043 -0.111 3.660 0.048 -0.055 3 686021 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.053 1.118 10.738 0.051 -0.028 4 686022 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.045 0.417 4.148 0.052 -0.145 5 686031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.050 0.975 4.905 0.055 -0.074 6 686032 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.047 0.595 3.757 0.053 -0.059 7 686041 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.047 0.284 3.384 0.053 -0.030 8 686042 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.046 0.411 4.529 0.051 -0.026 9 686051 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.044 0.177 3.151 0.051 -0.048 10 686052 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.049 0.523 4.794 0.057 -0.119 11 686061 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.053 0.583 3.850 0.057 0.007 12 686062 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.054 1.136 7.939 0.057 -0.048 13 686081 1692 1983 292 1.000 0.049 0.845 5.059 0.055 -0.101 14 686082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.053 1.804 11.563 0.052 -0.042 15 686091 1761 1983 223 1.000 0.060 0.622 3.912 0.064 0.028 16 686092 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.060 -0.012 4.630 0.068 -0.074 17 686101 1640 1983 344 1.000 0.059 0.475 4.170 0.063 -0.035 18 686102 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.047 -0.013 2.802 0.059 -0.187 19 686111 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.053 0.818 4.996 0.059 -0.067 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 686112 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.054 0.249 3.187 0.063 -0.074 21 686122 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.045 0.538 3.920 0.052 -0.119 22 686131 1599 1962 364 1.000 0.048 0.951 6.625 0.053 -0.056 23 686132 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.045 0.619 4.135 0.050 -0.031 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 300 1.000 0.050 0.655 5.616 0.055 -0.062 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.005 0.530 3.737 0.005 0.048 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.049 0.583 4.170 0.053 -0.055 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 106 0.000 0.006 0.550 1.224 0.006 0.041 MINIMUM VALUE 204 1.000 0.043 -0.111 2.802 0.048 -0.187 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.046 0.347 3.804 0.052 -0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 350 1.000 0.053 0.898 5.027 0.058 -0.033 MAXIMUM VALUE 531 1.000 0.060 2.057 19.317 0.068 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.355 0.099 0.006 0.134 3.034 0.089 0.659 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.089 SERIES 686021 AND 686102 216 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.659 SERIES 686091 AND 686092 204 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 6. 21. 28. 36. 55. 136. 171. 253. 253. RBAR 0.546 0.286 0.156 0.290 0.330 0.326 0.340 0.315 0.361 0.478 SDEV 0.000 0.142 0.165 0.184 0.171 0.196 0.193 0.163 0.160 0.146 SERR 0.000 0.058 0.036 0.035 0.028 0.026 0.017 0.012 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.835 0.720 0.605 0.796 0.853 0.882 0.910 0.911 0.928 0.955 NSS 4.2 6.4 8.3 9.5 11.8 15.5 19.6 22.3 23.0 23.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.431 0.392 0.434 0.461 SDEV 0.182 0.190 0.149 0.145 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.946 0.937 0.946 0.952 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1453 1983 531 1.000 0.039 0.543 3.970 0.044 -0.121 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.020 0.009 0.018 137 394 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.57 1.00 1.07 1.64 8.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.121 -0.026 -0.012 0.022 0.060 0.097 0.010 0.015 0.075 0.032 PACF -0.121 -0.041 -0.021 0.017 0.065 0.116 0.044 0.032 0.085 0.048 95% C.L. 0.087 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.090 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.122 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.043 -0.013 0.028 0.077 0.108 0.024 0.026 0.083 0.049 PACF -0.004 -0.043 -0.013 0.026 0.076 0.112 0.034 0.038 0.087 0.045 95% C.L. 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1453 1983 531 1.000 0.039 0.549 3.991 0.037 0.240 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.240 0.021 0.007 0.054 0.114 0.140 0.070 0.066 0.110 0.086 PACF 0.240 -0.039 0.011 0.054 0.094 0.098 0.019 0.051 0.085 0.030 95% C.L. 0.087 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.060 0.242 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES