RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA559L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA559L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 697 1 Squaw Valley, Lake Tahoe WIDTH_LATE ABMA - 697 2 United States of America California red fir 2280 3906-11916 1712 198 697 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 697011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 3 GAPS / 1930 1934 / 1975 1976 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 697021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1932 1936 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 697031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 697032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 697091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 697092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 697111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 0.192 0.080 0.864 4.463 0.173 0.800 2 697012 1751 1983 233 0.231 0.155 2.187 7.692 0.190 0.870 3 697021 1751 1983 233 0.180 0.098 1.331 6.004 0.211 0.793 4 697022 1746 1983 238 0.211 0.103 0.937 3.651 0.226 0.768 5 697031 1712 1983 272 0.185 0.097 1.756 7.458 0.186 0.805 6 697032 1734 1983 250 0.202 0.138 1.670 5.606 0.220 0.831 7 697041 1777 1983 207 0.349 0.128 1.114 4.591 0.258 0.503 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.338 0.113 -0.146 2.954 0.219 0.686 9 697051 1731 1983 253 0.235 0.131 1.026 4.128 0.289 0.715 10 697052 1737 1950 214 0.294 0.178 0.910 3.315 0.266 0.763 11 697061 1767 1983 217 0.252 0.096 1.059 4.230 0.195 0.733 12 697062 1785 1983 199 0.295 0.199 1.439 4.424 0.204 0.869 13 697071 1796 1983 188 0.238 0.140 0.943 3.410 0.200 0.849 14 697072 1787 1983 197 0.225 0.121 0.721 2.862 0.196 0.859 15 697081 1798 1983 186 0.274 0.096 1.035 3.986 0.204 0.625 16 697082 1803 1983 181 0.274 0.101 0.659 3.889 0.221 0.639 17 697091 1772 1983 212 0.257 0.157 0.764 3.059 0.214 0.822 18 697092 1779 1983 205 0.204 0.112 1.222 4.980 0.183 0.794 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.269 0.108 0.388 3.081 0.225 0.656 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.258 0.116 0.760 3.929 0.236 0.707 21 697111 1776 1983 208 0.253 0.178 1.013 3.121 0.220 0.868 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.332 0.283 2.053 8.022 0.216 0.854 23 697121 1799 1983 185 0.482 0.208 1.065 4.287 0.265 0.717 24 697122 1806 1983 178 0.263 0.121 2.436 11.017 0.222 0.705 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1712 TO 1983 272 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.262 0.136 1.134 4.757 0.218 0.760 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.066 0.046 0.574 1.995 0.028 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.255 0.121 1.030 4.179 0.217 0.780 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.066 0.054 0.571 1.931 0.028 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.180 0.080 -0.146 2.862 0.173 0.503 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.218 0.102 0.814 3.363 0.198 0.706 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 0.284 0.156 1.385 5.293 0.225 0.840 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 0.482 0.283 2.436 11.017 0.289 0.870 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.580 0.218 0.013 -1.998 6.960 -0.197 0.899 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.197 SERIES 697041 AND 697091 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.899 SERIES 697071 AND 697072 188 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.421 0.179 0.293 0.284 0.335 0.207 0.219 0.307 SDEV 0.122 0.185 0.226 0.176 0.170 0.201 0.259 0.207 SERR 0.050 0.023 0.017 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.897 0.812 0.907 0.905 0.923 0.862 0.871 0.913 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.269 0.113 0.480 3.038 0.147 0.842 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.471 0.218 0.033 167 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.70 1.36 1.01 1.24 2.61 25.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.17 0.00 0.81 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 214. 28. 178. 198. 226. 272. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.839 0.768 0.729 0.736 0.765 0.771 0.730 0.701 0.672 0.669 PACF 0.839 0.218 0.151 0.231 0.254 0.146 -0.030 0.018 -0.032 0.008 95% C.L. 0.121 0.188 0.230 0.261 0.290 0.319 0.345 0.367 0.386 0.403 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.790 0.428 0.043 -0.012 0.102 0.207 0.192 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106530 0.30558798 2 697012 1 0.60168040 0.02843591 0.00000000 0.14132763 3 697021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106919 0.30241454 4 697022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121164 0.35558876 5 697031 1 0.31606033 0.01284177 0.00000000 0.09657585 6 697032 1 0.43506449 0.01233107 0.00000000 0.06598415 7 697041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050472 0.29649499 8 697042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116113 0.46421275 9 697051 1 0.40866014 0.00882070 0.00000000 0.07252728 10 697052 1 0.58024156 0.01002060 0.00000000 0.05581155 11 697061 1 0.26844606 0.01614114 0.00000000 0.17788620 12 697062 1 0.72397459 0.02385565 0.00000000 0.14554644 13 697071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221539 0.44717318 14 697072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185304 0.40862891 15 697081 1 0.29566082 0.01050129 0.00000000 0.14465685 16 697082 1 0.27368295 0.01091066 0.00000000 0.15522055 17 697091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00215093 0.48396522 18 697092 1 0.40524396 0.00958281 0.00000000 0.02635122 19 697101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113959 0.39400500 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00137218 0.40985304 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 1 1.03706610 0.02297509 0.00000000 0.12432960 23 697121 1 0.58803529 0.02419639 0.00000000 0.35418519 24 697122 1 0.42365712 0.04618416 0.00000000 0.21269433 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 0.999 0.214 0.426 3.119 0.169 0.503 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.001 0.300 1.653 13.359 0.189 0.490 3 697021 1751 1983 233 0.997 0.332 2.276 14.290 0.206 0.613 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.007 0.258 0.819 5.330 0.225 0.401 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.276 0.380 3.422 0.185 0.593 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.002 0.378 1.503 5.774 0.217 0.631 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.337 0.646 3.881 0.257 0.463 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.998 0.293 0.628 6.017 0.218 0.528 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.003 0.397 1.539 8.464 0.287 0.413 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.009 0.497 3.602 23.426 0.264 0.516 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.282 1.147 5.681 0.195 0.473 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.333 0.515 3.389 0.203 0.641 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.036 0.299 0.741 3.954 0.200 0.569 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.035 0.325 1.100 5.293 0.197 0.585 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.223 0.466 3.648 0.203 0.315 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.299 0.774 4.102 0.220 0.495 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.026 0.360 1.685 7.884 0.217 0.538 18 697092 1779 1983 205 0.995 0.273 0.421 3.030 0.183 0.567 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.991 0.298 0.718 3.747 0.224 0.471 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.994 0.289 1.021 4.298 0.235 0.425 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.005 0.275 0.697 3.647 0.219 0.405 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.993 0.324 0.956 4.110 0.214 0.575 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.309 0.328 3.283 0.264 0.433 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.283 0.955 5.586 0.222 0.410 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.004 0.311 1.042 6.197 0.217 0.502 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.012 0.058 0.735 4.706 0.028 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.299 0.796 4.204 0.217 0.499 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.005 0.054 0.753 2.248 0.026 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.991 0.214 0.328 3.030 0.169 0.315 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.998 0.279 0.572 3.648 0.198 0.429 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.004 0.332 1.325 5.895 0.225 0.572 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.036 0.497 3.602 23.426 0.287 0.641 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 697012 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 697021 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 697022 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 697031 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 697032 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 697041 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 697042 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 697051 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 697052 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 697061 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 697062 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 697071 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 697072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 697081 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 697082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 697091 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 697092 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 697101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 697121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 697122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 0.998 0.190 0.317 2.702 0.169 0.382 2 697012 1751 1983 233 0.996 0.300 3.188 27.167 0.189 0.421 3 697021 1751 1983 233 0.997 0.311 1.894 11.979 0.206 0.575 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.252 0.725 4.491 0.225 0.384 5 697031 1712 1983 272 0.996 0.264 0.566 3.578 0.185 0.558 6 697032 1734 1983 250 0.995 0.340 1.313 5.546 0.217 0.570 7 697041 1777 1983 207 0.995 0.316 0.638 4.115 0.257 0.386 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.298 1.230 9.594 0.218 0.525 9 697051 1731 1983 253 0.994 0.351 1.124 6.624 0.288 0.331 10 697052 1737 1950 214 0.989 0.333 1.522 8.165 0.264 0.284 11 697061 1767 1983 217 0.998 0.274 1.359 7.113 0.195 0.428 12 697062 1785 1983 199 0.995 0.298 0.229 2.848 0.203 0.599 13 697071 1796 1983 188 0.999 0.249 0.246 2.882 0.199 0.471 14 697072 1787 1983 197 0.998 0.257 0.432 3.829 0.196 0.463 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.220 0.433 3.649 0.203 0.297 16 697082 1803 1983 181 0.994 0.257 0.580 3.448 0.220 0.361 17 697091 1772 1983 212 0.997 0.312 1.078 4.356 0.216 0.492 18 697092 1779 1983 205 0.996 0.238 0.632 4.190 0.183 0.411 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.998 0.254 0.505 3.328 0.225 0.312 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.996 0.266 1.005 4.101 0.235 0.333 21 697111 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.269 0.731 3.909 0.219 0.389 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.999 0.308 0.979 4.157 0.214 0.536 23 697121 1799 1983 185 0.997 0.298 0.332 3.471 0.264 0.388 24 697122 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.280 1.026 5.583 0.222 0.392 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.997 0.281 0.920 5.868 0.217 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.002 0.039 0.651 5.077 0.028 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 0.997 0.277 0.728 4.136 0.217 0.401 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.003 0.054 0.708 2.579 0.027 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.989 0.190 0.229 2.702 0.169 0.284 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.996 0.255 0.469 3.524 0.198 0.372 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 0.999 0.309 1.177 6.103 0.225 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.351 3.188 27.167 0.288 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.245 0.107 0.006 -0.146 2.979 -0.086 0.529 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.086 SERIES 697032 AND 697121 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.529 SERIES 697121 AND 697122 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.455 0.204 0.252 0.237 0.207 0.234 0.252 0.270 SDEV 0.068 0.178 0.154 0.168 0.185 0.185 0.193 0.178 SERR 0.028 0.022 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.909 0.836 0.888 0.882 0.862 0.880 0.890 0.897 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.981 0.160 0.186 3.498 0.138 0.433 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.268 0.165 0.050 78 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.78 1.00 1.12 1.90 6.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.431 0.143 0.009 0.021 0.048 0.082 0.007 -0.016 0.006 -0.027 PACF 0.431 -0.052 -0.041 0.048 0.033 0.053 -0.064 0.001 0.031 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.121 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.188 0.431 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.485 0.181 0.092 0.033 -0.001 0.041 -0.004 0.008 0.039 -0.017 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.485 2 0.519 -0.071 3 0.522 -0.093 0.043 4 0.523 -0.095 0.056 -0.026 5 0.523 -0.095 0.055 -0.021 -0.010 6 0.523 -0.093 0.052 -0.015 -0.042 0.063 7 0.527 -0.096 0.051 -0.012 -0.048 0.096 -0.064 8 0.530 -0.100 0.053 -0.011 -0.051 0.100 -0.086 0.043 9 0.529 -0.098 0.050 -0.010 -0.050 0.099 -0.084 0.029 0.027 10 0.531 -0.096 0.045 -0.003 -0.054 0.098 -0.080 0.022 0.062 -0.067 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2133.47 2062.63 2063.27 2064.77 2066.59 2068.56 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2069.48 2070.37 2071.88 2073.69 2074.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.485 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 130.71 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.485 0.235 0.114 0.055 0.027 0.013 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.0007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 697011 1 0.177 0.386 2 697012 1 0.181 0.423 3 697021 1 0.335 0.576 4 697022 1 0.153 0.389 5 697031 1 0.316 0.560 6 697032 1 0.335 0.578 7 697041 1 0.152 0.389 8 697042 1 0.292 0.530 9 697051 1 0.126 0.335 10 697052 1 0.087 0.285 11 697061 1 0.191 0.429 12 697062 1 0.378 0.611 13 697071 1 0.233 0.481 14 697072 1 0.239 0.464 15 697081 1 0.091 0.300 16 697082 1 0.133 0.362 17 697091 1 0.258 0.506 18 697092 1 0.175 0.415 19 697101 1 0.119 0.313 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 697102 1 0.123 0.334 21 697111 1 0.155 0.393 22 697112 1 0.297 0.542 23 697121 1 0.153 0.390 24 697122 1 0.155 0.394 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.202 0.433 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.085 0.095 MEDIAN 1 0.176 0.404 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.133 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.087 0.285 LOWER HINGE 1 0.142 0.374 UPPER HINGE 1 0.275 0.518 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.378 0.611 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.175 0.436 2.868 0.204 -0.067 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.272 4.498 43.262 0.223 -0.018 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.254 1.685 10.348 0.275 -0.037 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.232 0.519 3.844 0.267 -0.020 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.219 0.686 4.254 0.239 -0.032 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.277 1.250 6.076 0.276 0.033 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.291 0.978 5.277 0.301 -0.010 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.253 1.249 6.890 0.271 -0.056 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.331 1.230 7.529 0.323 -0.045 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.000 0.319 1.856 10.200 0.308 -0.023 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.247 1.125 7.317 0.250 -0.038 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.236 0.316 3.631 0.266 -0.037 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.218 0.207 3.920 0.246 -0.014 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.228 0.139 5.032 0.251 -0.079 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.209 0.453 3.887 0.231 0.007 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.239 0.756 4.169 0.253 -0.014 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.269 0.916 4.425 0.272 -0.013 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.216 0.615 5.202 0.214 -0.027 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.241 0.660 3.425 0.260 -0.046 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.251 0.969 4.250 0.274 -0.037 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.247 0.776 3.878 0.264 -0.004 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.258 0.822 4.409 0.274 -0.045 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.274 0.462 3.671 0.308 -0.018 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.257 0.919 6.180 0.271 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.251 0.980 6.831 0.263 -0.027 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.034 0.863 8.009 0.029 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.249 0.799 4.417 0.267 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.041 0.687 2.652 0.027 0.028 MINIMUM VALUE 178 1.000 0.175 0.139 2.868 0.204 -0.079 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.230 0.491 3.883 0.248 -0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.000 0.270 1.178 6.535 0.275 -0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.331 4.498 43.262 0.323 0.033 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.233 0.094 0.006 0.006 3.282 -0.060 0.510 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.060 SERIES 697032 AND 697121 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.510 SERIES 697101 AND 697102 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.406 0.206 0.253 0.263 0.226 0.255 0.240 0.220 SDEV 0.054 0.171 0.149 0.158 0.156 0.156 0.154 0.143 SERR 0.022 0.021 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.891 0.837 0.888 0.895 0.875 0.891 0.883 0.870 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.987 0.145 0.302 3.660 0.164 0.011 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.285 0.175 0.016 91 181 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.54 1.00 1.09 1.62 6.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.011 -0.027 -0.069 0.000 -0.004 0.098 -0.017 -0.032 0.004 -0.043 PACF 0.011 -0.027 -0.069 0.001 -0.008 0.094 -0.020 -0.028 0.016 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.026 -0.069 0.001 -0.005 0.098 -0.018 -0.032 0.004 -0.043 PACF 0.000 -0.026 -0.069 0.000 -0.009 0.094 -0.019 -0.028 0.016 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.987 0.164 0.119 3.464 0.136 0.465 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.464 0.182 0.041 0.034 0.044 0.086 0.016 -0.016 -0.007 -0.009 PACF 0.464 -0.042 -0.035 0.044 0.023 0.066 -0.068 -0.008 0.021 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.121 0.145 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.150 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.217 0.464 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 15.97 MINUTES