RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana038w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana038w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 799 1 Bruno Lake, Manitoba WIDTH_RING PCGL - 799 2 Canada White Spruce 1000 5137-9550 1822 1988 - 799 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 799082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 799021 1845 1988 144 0.828 0.259 0.516 2.688 0.227 0.584 2 799022 1872 1988 117 0.806 0.340 0.766 3.589 0.275 0.694 3 799031 1830 1988 159 0.533 0.427 2.111 7.520 0.285 0.840 4 799032 1822 1988 167 0.577 0.594 1.878 5.509 0.282 0.911 5 799041 1897 1988 92 1.822 1.176 1.451 4.443 0.263 0.865 6 799051 1844 1988 145 0.734 0.629 2.058 6.977 0.355 0.785 7 799052 1848 1988 141 0.615 0.430 1.796 6.284 0.298 0.824 8 799061 1894 1988 95 0.961 0.357 0.736 3.387 0.245 0.651 9 799062 1876 1988 113 1.362 0.503 0.623 3.903 0.232 0.720 10 799071 1847 1988 142 0.926 0.375 0.361 3.166 0.252 0.767 11 799072 1846 1988 143 1.035 0.449 0.266 3.008 0.268 0.709 12 799081 1863 1988 126 2.094 0.655 0.786 3.855 0.209 0.652 13 799082 1860 1988 129 1.781 0.594 1.176 5.265 0.192 0.726 14 799091 1851 1988 138 1.384 0.357 1.025 5.299 0.154 0.690 15 799092 1856 1988 133 1.425 0.426 0.692 3.599 0.168 0.740 16 799101 1846 1988 143 1.772 0.577 1.090 3.799 0.169 0.806 17 799102 1850 1988 139 1.948 0.689 0.817 2.638 0.175 0.819 18 799111 1847 1970 124 1.460 0.444 0.343 2.235 0.141 0.835 19 799112 1847 1988 142 1.530 0.385 0.217 2.467 0.151 0.718 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 799151 1844 1988 145 1.135 0.586 1.202 5.717 0.215 0.836 21 799152 1855 1988 134 0.988 0.438 0.441 2.952 0.226 0.842 22 799161 1920 1988 69 1.832 0.728 0.091 2.754 0.184 0.796 23 799162 1845 1988 144 1.025 0.416 0.214 2.034 0.198 0.817 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1822 TO 1988 167 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.242 0.515 0.898 4.047 0.225 0.766 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.476 0.190 0.612 1.554 0.055 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.135 0.444 0.766 3.599 0.226 0.785 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.773 0.194 0.789 2.429 0.086 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 69 0.533 0.259 0.091 2.034 0.141 0.584 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 0.877 0.400 0.401 2.853 0.179 0.713 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 1.651 0.594 1.189 5.282 0.266 0.829 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 2.094 1.176 2.111 7.520 0.355 0.911 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.263 0.303 0.019 -0.210 2.367 -0.460 0.896 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.460 SERIES 799041 AND 799072 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.896 SERIES 799031 AND 799032 159 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.41 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 105. 190. 231. 231. RBAR 0.292 0.316 0.448 0.316 SDEV 0.266 0.307 0.213 0.285 SERR 0.026 0.022 0.014 0.019 EPS 0.888 0.909 0.949 0.913 NSS 19.3 21.6 22.7 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1988 167 1.234 0.360 1.396 5.227 0.145 0.768 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.304 -0.188 0.806 52 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.73 1.00 1.08 1.81 3.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 139. 18. 69. 125. 144. 167. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.763 0.652 0.586 0.494 0.465 0.378 0.326 0.331 0.278 0.295 PACF 0.763 0.168 0.109 -0.038 0.102 -0.098 0.015 0.107 -0.047 0.115 95% C.L. 0.155 0.228 0.269 0.298 0.317 0.333 0.343 0.350 0.358 0.363 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.646 0.640 0.016 0.200 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 799021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096152 0.75855380 2 799022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00350155 0.59956235 3 799031 1 2.17566514 0.09802367 0.00000000 0.40047160 4 799032 1 2.56870508 0.05656013 0.00000000 0.31318462 5 799041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03271103 0.30132821 6 799051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00381507 0.45584482 7 799052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295244 0.40512869 8 799061 1 1.16332126 0.10941914 0.00000000 0.85504913 9 799062 1 0.68274534 0.03600591 0.00000000 1.19961250 10 799071 1 1.07927954 0.04375875 0.00000000 0.75690687 11 799072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00718010 1.55179262 12 799081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00769572 1.60497272 13 799082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00306811 1.58997011 14 799091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039725 1.35594201 15 799092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00145494 1.52259398 16 799101 1 1.75727248 0.02892454 0.00000000 1.35956490 17 799102 1 1.99024093 0.02942779 0.00000000 1.47703612 18 799111 1 1.16973758 0.01913420 0.00000000 1.01701057 19 799112 1 0.52551609 0.04063693 0.00000000 1.44055498 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 799151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00822398 0.53482187 21 799152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00598798 0.58364719 22 799161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01843697 2.47775793 23 799162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00262768 0.83477080 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 799021 1845 1988 144 1.000 0.304 0.312 2.371 0.225 0.560 2 799022 1872 1988 117 1.003 0.401 0.651 3.393 0.273 0.683 3 799031 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.551 1.499 5.470 0.284 0.730 4 799032 1822 1988 167 1.013 0.689 1.928 8.729 0.279 0.830 5 799041 1897 1988 92 1.095 0.578 1.270 3.991 0.261 0.779 6 799051 1844 1988 145 0.991 0.733 1.797 6.663 0.352 0.748 7 799052 1848 1988 141 0.995 0.617 1.465 5.335 0.296 0.784 8 799061 1894 1988 95 1.000 0.316 0.857 5.213 0.243 0.499 9 799062 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.371 1.295 6.310 0.230 0.702 10 799071 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.341 0.128 2.792 0.250 0.646 11 799072 1846 1988 143 0.997 0.334 -0.021 2.971 0.266 0.509 12 799081 1863 1988 126 0.998 0.274 0.641 3.572 0.208 0.556 13 799082 1860 1988 129 0.999 0.318 1.034 5.062 0.193 0.687 14 799091 1851 1988 138 1.000 0.257 0.980 5.168 0.153 0.682 15 799092 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.300 0.868 3.917 0.167 0.738 16 799101 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.205 0.339 3.200 0.169 0.493 17 799102 1850 1988 139 1.000 0.254 1.151 5.773 0.175 0.624 18 799111 1847 1970 124 1.000 0.240 0.409 2.526 0.140 0.734 19 799112 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.242 0.326 2.605 0.149 0.683 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 799151 1844 1988 145 1.027 0.511 1.832 7.917 0.214 0.778 21 799152 1855 1988 134 0.999 0.382 0.468 3.653 0.224 0.731 22 799161 1920 1988 69 0.990 0.348 0.392 2.438 0.180 0.753 23 799162 1845 1988 144 0.999 0.388 0.162 2.162 0.196 0.777 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.005 0.389 0.860 4.401 0.223 0.683 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.021 0.150 0.586 1.833 0.055 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.341 0.857 3.917 0.224 0.702 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.001 0.169 0.916 2.521 0.087 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 69 0.990 0.205 -0.021 2.162 0.140 0.493 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 0.999 0.287 0.366 2.882 0.177 0.635 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 1.000 0.456 1.282 5.402 0.264 0.751 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.095 0.733 1.928 8.729 0.352 0.830 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 799021 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 799022 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 799031 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 799032 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 799041 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 799051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 799052 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 799061 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 799062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 799071 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 799072 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 799081 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 799082 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 799091 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 799092 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 799101 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 799102 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 799111 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 799112 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 799151 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 799152 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 799161 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 799162 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 799021 1845 1988 144 0.994 0.252 0.220 2.676 0.225 0.392 2 799022 1872 1988 117 0.986 0.312 0.722 4.259 0.273 0.456 3 799031 1830 1988 159 0.990 0.336 0.852 4.623 0.285 0.449 4 799032 1822 1988 167 0.969 0.432 1.542 7.304 0.278 0.703 5 799041 1897 1988 92 0.991 0.326 0.423 2.734 0.260 0.539 6 799051 1844 1988 145 0.960 0.511 0.987 3.838 0.352 0.598 7 799052 1848 1988 141 0.979 0.475 0.680 2.854 0.295 0.687 8 799061 1894 1988 95 0.997 0.294 0.516 4.424 0.243 0.453 9 799062 1876 1988 113 0.995 0.334 0.865 5.439 0.230 0.654 10 799071 1847 1988 142 0.989 0.285 0.058 2.681 0.250 0.494 11 799072 1846 1988 143 0.996 0.315 0.100 3.674 0.266 0.432 12 799081 1863 1988 126 0.999 0.244 0.351 3.200 0.208 0.425 13 799082 1860 1988 129 0.996 0.227 0.610 4.337 0.192 0.445 14 799091 1851 1988 138 0.998 0.233 0.745 4.101 0.153 0.625 15 799092 1856 1988 133 0.995 0.239 0.504 2.873 0.167 0.610 16 799101 1846 1988 143 0.998 0.178 0.102 3.166 0.168 0.338 17 799102 1850 1988 139 0.996 0.224 1.022 5.311 0.174 0.536 18 799111 1847 1970 124 0.996 0.194 0.193 2.968 0.140 0.609 19 799112 1847 1988 142 0.999 0.238 0.431 2.674 0.149 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 799151 1844 1988 145 0.985 0.300 0.507 4.248 0.215 0.577 21 799152 1855 1988 134 0.981 0.284 0.349 4.323 0.224 0.575 22 799161 1920 1988 69 0.996 0.187 0.514 3.182 0.179 0.279 23 799162 1845 1988 144 0.976 0.253 -0.032 3.104 0.196 0.533 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.989 0.290 0.533 3.826 0.223 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.010 0.086 0.370 1.136 0.054 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 0.995 0.284 0.507 3.674 0.224 0.536 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.011 0.085 0.449 1.409 0.086 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 69 0.960 0.178 -0.032 2.674 0.140 0.279 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 0.985 0.236 0.284 2.921 0.177 0.447 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 0.996 0.320 0.734 4.330 0.263 0.610 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 0.999 0.511 1.542 7.304 0.352 0.703 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.345 0.171 0.011 -0.056 2.968 -0.127 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.127 SERIES 799041 AND 799102 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 799061 AND 799062 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.41 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 105. 190. 231. 231. RBAR 0.328 0.399 0.424 0.367 SDEV 0.199 0.211 0.196 0.221 SERR 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.904 0.935 0.944 0.930 NSS 19.3 21.6 22.7 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1988 167 0.982 0.187 0.088 2.743 0.163 0.487 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.348 0.176 0.043 60 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.65 1.01 1.09 1.74 3.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.484 0.279 0.226 0.058 0.021 0.020 0.036 0.104 0.029 0.074 PACF 0.484 0.058 0.094 -0.124 0.012 0.007 0.056 0.092 -0.085 0.079 95% C.L. 0.155 0.188 0.197 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.205 0.205 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.242 0.489 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.479 0.280 0.200 0.024 -0.069 -0.050 0.001 0.103 -0.026 0.060 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.479 2 0.448 0.065 3 0.444 0.040 0.056 4 0.452 0.045 0.116 -0.135 5 0.441 0.054 0.120 -0.101 -0.075 6 0.443 0.057 0.116 -0.102 -0.087 0.027 7 0.441 0.063 0.124 -0.111 -0.091 -0.007 0.075 8 0.431 0.064 0.137 -0.096 -0.108 -0.015 0.015 0.137 9 0.456 0.067 0.134 -0.115 -0.126 0.010 0.026 0.216 -0.184 10 0.475 0.045 0.131 -0.116 -0.113 0.022 0.013 0.209 -0.231 0.103 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1279.10 1237.61 1238.90 1240.36 1239.31 1240.36 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1242.24 1243.30 1242.15 1238.43 1238.64 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.479 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.93 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.479 0.229 0.110 0.053 0.025 0.012 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 799021 1 0.174 0.398 2 799022 1 0.226 0.464 3 799031 1 0.209 0.453 4 799032 1 0.499 0.705 5 799041 1 0.297 0.545 6 799051 1 0.385 0.599 7 799052 1 0.486 0.695 8 799061 1 0.224 0.455 9 799062 1 0.433 0.656 10 799071 1 0.266 0.500 11 799072 1 0.204 0.450 12 799081 1 0.194 0.426 13 799082 1 0.201 0.447 14 799091 1 0.402 0.633 15 799092 1 0.383 0.618 16 799101 1 0.133 0.344 17 799102 1 0.320 0.538 18 799111 1 0.374 0.610 19 799112 1 0.463 0.673 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 799151 1 0.359 0.593 21 799152 1 0.343 0.582 22 799161 1 0.081 0.281 23 799162 1 0.324 0.548 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.303 0.531 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.116 0.114 MEDIAN 1 0.320 0.545 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.177 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.081 0.281 LOWER HINGE 1 0.207 0.452 UPPER HINGE 1 0.384 0.614 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.499 0.705 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 799021 1845 1988 144 1.000 0.231 -0.014 2.898 0.280 -0.047 2 799022 1872 1988 117 1.000 0.276 0.134 3.489 0.337 -0.052 3 799031 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.299 0.747 5.047 0.333 -0.027 4 799032 1822 1988 167 1.001 0.302 0.541 4.903 0.352 -0.044 5 799041 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.274 0.592 2.950 0.318 0.018 6 799051 1844 1988 145 1.000 0.409 1.045 5.383 0.450 -0.120 7 799052 1848 1988 141 1.000 0.340 0.345 3.486 0.400 -0.059 8 799061 1894 1988 95 1.000 0.261 0.390 3.900 0.284 0.067 9 799062 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.252 0.458 4.273 0.293 -0.045 10 799071 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.247 0.065 2.687 0.294 -0.068 11 799072 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.279 0.313 4.048 0.316 0.004 12 799081 1863 1988 126 1.000 0.220 0.152 2.972 0.245 0.049 13 799082 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.203 0.546 3.554 0.232 -0.016 14 799091 1851 1988 138 1.000 0.180 0.882 4.059 0.188 0.010 15 799092 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.187 0.294 2.872 0.213 -0.020 16 799101 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.167 0.043 3.110 0.194 -0.045 17 799102 1850 1988 139 1.000 0.189 0.422 4.394 0.227 -0.114 18 799111 1847 1970 124 1.000 0.154 -0.290 3.189 0.179 -0.034 19 799112 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.175 0.138 2.928 0.189 0.084 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 799151 1844 1988 145 1.000 0.241 0.904 5.280 0.264 -0.065 21 799152 1855 1988 134 1.000 0.231 0.321 3.266 0.264 -0.040 22 799161 1920 1988 69 1.000 0.180 0.590 3.186 0.203 -0.014 23 799162 1845 1988 144 1.000 0.210 0.516 4.167 0.244 -0.092 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.000 0.239 0.397 3.741 0.274 -0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.061 0.321 0.828 0.071 0.051 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.231 0.390 3.489 0.264 -0.040 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.087 0.423 1.180 0.097 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 69 1.000 0.154 -0.290 2.687 0.179 -0.120 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.188 0.145 3.041 0.220 -0.056 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 1.000 0.275 0.568 4.220 0.317 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.001 0.409 1.045 5.383 0.450 0.084 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.393 0.140 0.009 -0.035 3.622 -0.021 0.805 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.021 SERIES 799052 AND 799102 139 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.805 SERIES 799061 AND 799062 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.41 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 105. 190. 231. 231. RBAR 0.361 0.395 0.429 0.409 SDEV 0.165 0.174 0.175 0.181 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.916 0.934 0.945 0.941 NSS 19.3 21.6 22.7 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1988 167 0.996 0.159 -0.189 2.772 0.195 -0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.210 0.103 0.066 61 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.70 1.00 1.09 1.79 15.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.060 0.005 0.112 -0.084 -0.012 -0.020 -0.034 0.149 -0.067 0.047 PACF -0.060 0.001 0.113 -0.072 -0.023 -0.034 -0.020 0.148 -0.050 0.041 95% C.L. 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.162 0.163 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.008 0.109 -0.080 -0.018 -0.022 -0.027 0.145 -0.056 0.051 PACF -0.001 0.008 0.109 -0.081 -0.020 -0.033 -0.009 0.146 -0.057 0.050 95% C.L. 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.161 0.161 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1988 167 0.998 0.182 0.084 2.861 0.157 0.487 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.484 0.264 0.177 0.012 -0.010 -0.005 0.026 0.121 0.046 0.093 PACF 0.484 0.038 0.046 -0.127 0.020 0.009 0.057 0.114 -0.087 0.090 95% C.L. 0.155 0.188 0.196 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.202 0.202 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.240 0.489 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES