RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana043e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana043e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 801 1 Armstrong (eben) WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 801 2 Canada White Spruce 1120 5018-8903 1843 1988 - 801 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 15 801252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 801101 1925 1988 64 0.648 0.327 0.666 3.007 0.149 0.911 2 801102 1908 1988 81 0.530 0.344 0.632 2.299 0.205 0.936 3 801111 1927 1988 62 0.971 0.225 0.700 4.122 0.175 0.573 4 801121 1927 1988 62 0.983 0.200 1.023 4.552 0.170 0.506 5 801122 1923 1988 66 0.842 0.226 -0.031 2.352 0.198 0.586 6 801211 1862 1959 98 0.683 0.329 0.677 2.284 0.154 0.913 7 801212 1864 1988 125 0.803 0.402 0.005 1.869 0.185 0.889 8 801221 1911 1988 78 0.826 0.200 -0.173 2.579 0.163 0.580 9 801222 1879 1988 110 0.723 0.230 -0.036 2.748 0.197 0.664 10 801231 1926 1988 63 0.572 0.288 1.080 3.988 0.227 0.783 11 801232 1926 1988 63 0.699 0.401 0.003 1.980 0.224 0.874 12 801241 1878 1988 111 0.478 0.234 0.540 2.327 0.264 0.775 13 801242 1869 1988 120 0.417 0.245 1.007 3.634 0.262 0.847 14 801251 1883 1988 106 0.344 0.123 0.780 3.705 0.213 0.701 15 801252 1867 1988 122 0.463 0.134 0.800 3.520 0.181 0.620 16 801261 1879 1988 110 0.569 0.263 0.591 2.890 0.229 0.816 17 801262 1905 1988 84 0.863 0.440 0.851 2.820 0.247 0.809 18 801271 1855 1988 134 0.614 0.386 1.072 3.220 0.196 0.918 19 801272 1843 1988 146 0.419 0.250 0.998 3.074 0.237 0.880 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 801281 1850 1988 139 0.403 0.288 1.101 3.211 0.227 0.925 21 801282 1851 1988 138 0.481 0.376 0.962 2.844 0.246 0.933 22 801291 1854 1988 135 0.445 0.470 1.631 4.985 0.279 0.955 23 801331 1909 1982 74 1.182 0.332 0.553 3.028 0.221 0.496 24 801332 1899 1988 90 1.024 0.382 0.051 2.198 0.199 0.771 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1843 TO 1988 146 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 99 0.666 0.296 0.645 3.052 0.210 0.778 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.229 0.093 0.463 0.806 0.036 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 0.631 0.288 0.688 2.948 0.209 0.813 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.363 0.151 0.707 1.238 0.050 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.344 0.123 -0.173 1.869 0.149 0.496 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 70 0.471 0.228 0.296 2.340 0.183 0.642 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.834 0.379 1.003 3.577 0.233 0.912 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.182 0.470 1.631 4.985 0.279 0.955 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.157 0.456 0.027 -0.062 1.975 -0.833 0.925 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.833 SERIES 801232 AND 801291 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.925 SERIES 801101 AND 801102 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.29 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 36. 91. 171. RBAR 0.233 0.308 0.304 SDEV 0.305 0.308 0.422 SERR 0.051 0.032 0.032 EPS 0.815 0.900 0.911 NSS 14.5 20.3 23.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1988 146 0.518 0.206 0.468 2.440 0.186 0.864 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.638 0.396 0.059 60 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.92 4.72 1.00 1.24 5.96 163.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 102. 54. 62. 70. 124. 146. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.859 0.795 0.761 0.710 0.679 0.677 0.647 0.654 0.636 0.605 PACF 0.859 0.222 0.155 0.005 0.059 0.146 -0.011 0.148 -0.021 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.166 0.260 0.320 0.366 0.402 0.432 0.461 0.485 0.508 0.530 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.762 0.621 0.117 0.174 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 801101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01219299 0.25169644 2 801102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01148126 0.05902160 3 801111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118909 1.00842416 4 801121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265821 1.06631410 5 801122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014821 0.83685315 6 801211 1 1.21816635 0.02045290 0.00000000 0.16288339 7 801212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00913591 1.37860262 8 801221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163356 0.76162839 9 801222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00242265 0.58899748 10 801231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01241071 0.96936506 11 801232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01990159 1.33558118 12 801241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00524280 0.18433088 13 801242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00359063 0.20001681 14 801251 1 0.31965181 0.01181048 0.00000000 0.16291583 15 801252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047923 0.49532628 16 801261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00634475 0.21677564 17 801262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01539496 0.20833333 18 801271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00750655 0.10696442 19 801272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00411761 0.11680775 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 801281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00428866 0.10267126 21 801282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00651790 0.02809267 22 801291 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 801331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00590418 1.40356910 24 801332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00394353 1.20343077 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 801101 1925 1988 64 0.981 0.313 0.975 3.532 0.147 0.780 2 801102 1908 1988 81 1.026 0.447 1.805 8.006 0.205 0.663 3 801111 1927 1988 62 1.000 0.227 0.521 4.003 0.172 0.550 4 801121 1927 1988 62 1.000 0.194 0.731 4.151 0.167 0.451 5 801122 1923 1988 66 1.000 0.268 -0.027 2.350 0.195 0.577 6 801211 1862 1959 98 1.000 0.234 0.393 3.026 0.151 0.588 7 801212 1864 1988 125 0.983 0.306 1.147 5.349 0.183 0.630 8 801221 1911 1988 78 1.000 0.239 -0.117 2.664 0.161 0.546 9 801222 1879 1988 110 0.998 0.308 0.299 3.181 0.196 0.641 10 801231 1926 1988 63 1.003 0.255 0.517 3.713 0.221 0.346 11 801232 1926 1988 63 0.999 0.312 1.248 5.400 0.214 0.627 12 801241 1878 1988 111 1.028 0.464 1.933 9.346 0.264 0.645 13 801242 1869 1988 120 1.037 0.610 1.438 5.387 0.260 0.839 14 801251 1883 1988 106 1.000 0.303 0.641 3.782 0.211 0.573 15 801252 1867 1988 122 1.000 0.287 0.813 3.719 0.179 0.654 16 801261 1879 1988 110 1.000 0.286 0.188 2.767 0.227 0.526 17 801262 1905 1988 84 1.034 0.323 1.094 5.606 0.244 0.402 18 801271 1855 1988 134 1.103 0.678 2.237 7.899 0.196 0.837 19 801272 1843 1988 146 1.065 0.589 1.618 5.770 0.236 0.732 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 801281 1850 1988 139 1.131 0.913 2.173 8.394 0.225 0.869 21 801282 1851 1988 138 1.522 2.247 3.489 14.191 0.248 0.894 22 801291 1854 1988 135 0.977 0.400 0.738 3.856 0.275 0.468 23 801331 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.252 0.241 3.041 0.218 0.430 24 801332 1899 1988 90 0.998 0.350 -0.103 2.176 0.196 0.739 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 99 1.037 0.450 1.000 5.055 0.208 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.110 0.419 0.876 2.798 0.036 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.310 0.776 3.930 0.208 0.629 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.032 0.194 1.181 2.577 0.050 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.977 0.194 -0.117 2.176 0.147 0.346 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 70 0.999 0.262 0.346 3.111 0.181 0.536 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.031 0.456 1.528 5.688 0.232 0.736 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.522 2.247 3.489 14.191 0.275 0.894 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 801101 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 801102 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 801111 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 801121 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 801122 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 801211 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 801212 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 801221 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 801222 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 801231 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 801232 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 801241 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 801242 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 801251 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 801252 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 801261 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 801262 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 801271 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 801272 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 801281 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 801282 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 801291 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 801331 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 801332 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 801101 1925 1988 64 0.992 0.185 0.557 4.009 0.143 0.503 2 801102 1908 1988 81 0.979 0.241 0.650 4.227 0.201 0.443 3 801111 1927 1988 62 0.996 0.178 0.413 3.294 0.171 0.332 4 801121 1927 1988 62 0.998 0.160 0.534 3.229 0.165 0.240 5 801122 1923 1988 66 0.997 0.170 0.191 3.241 0.195 -0.047 6 801211 1862 1959 98 0.998 0.223 0.414 3.082 0.151 0.545 7 801212 1864 1988 125 0.997 0.278 1.064 4.737 0.183 0.533 8 801221 1911 1988 78 0.995 0.200 0.191 2.606 0.160 0.377 9 801222 1879 1988 110 0.994 0.213 0.189 3.293 0.194 0.238 10 801231 1926 1988 63 0.997 0.241 0.543 3.470 0.220 0.279 11 801232 1926 1988 63 0.989 0.231 0.783 4.441 0.214 0.400 12 801241 1878 1988 111 0.992 0.302 0.111 3.406 0.262 0.441 13 801242 1869 1988 120 0.987 0.349 0.175 2.884 0.259 0.606 14 801251 1883 1988 106 0.997 0.291 0.640 3.888 0.211 0.545 15 801252 1867 1988 122 0.997 0.268 0.580 3.119 0.179 0.604 16 801261 1879 1988 110 0.996 0.266 0.170 2.884 0.227 0.451 17 801262 1905 1988 84 0.998 0.243 0.216 3.331 0.244 0.188 18 801271 1855 1988 134 0.981 0.260 0.410 3.379 0.193 0.566 19 801272 1843 1988 146 0.987 0.323 0.148 2.565 0.235 0.558 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 801281 1850 1988 139 0.978 0.332 0.867 4.899 0.224 0.592 21 801282 1851 1988 138 1.262 0.929 2.272 7.990 0.246 0.870 22 801291 1854 1988 135 0.995 0.400 0.927 4.499 0.274 0.421 23 801331 1909 1982 74 0.997 0.226 0.388 3.132 0.217 0.222 24 801332 1899 1988 90 0.995 0.252 -0.255 2.733 0.197 0.558 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 99 1.004 0.282 0.507 3.681 0.207 0.436 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.055 0.150 0.483 1.131 0.036 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 0.995 0.247 0.413 3.313 0.206 0.447 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.007 0.079 0.455 1.018 0.050 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.978 0.160 -0.255 2.565 0.143 -0.047 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 70 0.990 0.218 0.190 3.100 0.181 0.305 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.997 0.297 0.645 4.118 0.231 0.558 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.262 0.929 2.272 7.990 0.274 0.870 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.303 0.169 0.010 -0.001 3.468 -0.231 0.878 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.231 SERIES 801282 AND 801332 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.878 SERIES 801111 AND 801121 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.29 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 36. 91. 171. RBAR 0.112 0.270 0.410 SDEV 0.226 0.214 0.186 SERR 0.038 0.022 0.014 EPS 0.647 0.882 0.943 NSS 14.5 20.3 23.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1988 146 0.983 0.192 0.202 3.514 0.171 0.415 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.039 0.020 0.201 60 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 1.48 1.01 1.14 2.62 17.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.412 0.210 0.124 -0.093 -0.141 -0.069 -0.131 0.042 0.010 -0.086 PACF 0.412 0.048 0.027 -0.194 -0.064 0.049 -0.086 0.155 -0.085 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.166 0.192 0.198 0.200 0.201 0.204 0.204 0.207 0.207 0.207 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.176 0.416 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.404 0.241 0.093 0.008 -0.079 -0.031 -0.079 -0.012 -0.067 -0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.404 2 0.366 0.093 3 0.370 0.108 -0.040 4 0.368 0.112 -0.024 -0.044 5 0.365 0.110 -0.014 -0.013 -0.083 6 0.368 0.111 -0.014 -0.017 -0.099 0.042 7 0.371 0.105 -0.015 -0.018 -0.092 0.065 -0.062 8 0.374 0.102 -0.011 -0.017 -0.091 0.060 -0.079 0.046 9 0.377 0.096 -0.006 -0.024 -0.093 0.060 -0.071 0.073 -0.074 10 0.371 0.102 -0.012 -0.019 -0.100 0.058 -0.072 0.081 -0.042 -0.083 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1032.92 1008.89 1009.62 1011.39 1013.11 1014.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1015.83 1017.27 1018.96 1020.17 1021.14 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.404 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.33 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.52 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.404 0.163 0.066 0.027 0.011 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 801101 1 0.258 0.508 2 801102 1 0.260 0.476 3 801111 1 0.138 0.336 4 801121 1 0.095 0.242 5 801122 1 0.004 -0.048 6 801211 1 0.319 0.546 7 801212 1 0.298 0.541 8 801221 1 0.159 0.381 9 801222 1 0.068 0.244 10 801231 1 0.101 0.284 11 801232 1 0.163 0.403 12 801241 1 0.207 0.442 13 801242 1 0.375 0.612 14 801251 1 0.309 0.555 15 801252 1 0.370 0.607 16 801261 1 0.206 0.454 17 801262 1 0.044 0.190 18 801271 1 0.330 0.572 19 801272 1 0.334 0.563 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 801281 1 0.354 0.593 21 801282 1 0.772 0.872 22 801291 1 0.203 0.423 23 801331 1 0.061 0.232 24 801332 1 0.316 0.562 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.239 0.441 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.160 0.188 MEDIAN 1 0.233 0.465 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.205 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.004 -0.048 LOWER HINGE 1 0.119 0.310 UPPER HINGE 1 0.324 0.562 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.772 0.872 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 801101 1925 1988 64 1.000 0.159 1.035 4.994 0.172 -0.013 2 801102 1908 1988 81 1.000 0.209 0.644 3.623 0.244 -0.127 3 801111 1927 1988 62 1.000 0.168 0.241 2.584 0.187 0.059 4 801121 1927 1988 62 1.000 0.155 0.225 2.888 0.177 0.048 5 801122 1923 1988 66 1.000 0.170 0.183 3.160 0.190 -0.002 6 801211 1862 1959 98 1.000 0.187 0.494 4.497 0.191 0.095 7 801212 1864 1988 125 1.000 0.233 1.213 5.526 0.226 -0.041 8 801221 1911 1988 78 1.000 0.185 0.509 2.949 0.192 -0.044 9 801222 1879 1988 110 1.000 0.206 0.396 3.186 0.221 -0.025 10 801231 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.231 0.557 3.252 0.250 0.037 11 801232 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.212 0.742 4.066 0.252 -0.005 12 801241 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.271 0.697 3.457 0.304 -0.052 13 801242 1869 1988 120 1.000 0.275 0.294 2.910 0.313 -0.017 14 801251 1883 1988 106 1.000 0.241 0.649 3.655 0.263 -0.016 15 801252 1867 1988 122 1.000 0.212 0.446 3.021 0.233 -0.027 16 801261 1879 1988 110 1.000 0.237 0.155 3.032 0.266 0.004 17 801262 1905 1988 84 1.000 0.238 0.341 3.341 0.264 0.016 18 801271 1855 1988 134 1.000 0.213 0.512 3.775 0.236 -0.032 19 801272 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.266 0.260 3.537 0.296 -0.088 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 801281 1850 1988 139 1.000 0.268 1.348 7.300 0.270 -0.038 21 801282 1851 1988 138 1.003 0.448 1.891 10.854 0.442 -0.177 22 801291 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.362 1.213 5.704 0.349 -0.073 23 801331 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.219 0.289 3.193 0.250 -0.029 24 801332 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.208 0.244 2.330 0.228 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 99 1.000 0.232 0.607 4.035 0.250 -0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.001 0.065 0.439 1.846 0.061 0.057 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.216 0.501 3.399 0.247 -0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.058 0.445 1.255 0.061 0.043 MINIMUM VALUE 62 1.000 0.155 0.155 2.330 0.172 -0.177 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.196 0.275 3.026 0.206 -0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.254 0.720 4.282 0.268 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.003 0.448 1.891 10.854 0.442 0.095 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.355 0.140 0.008 0.011 3.760 -0.067 0.860 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.067 SERIES 801282 AND 801291 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.860 SERIES 801111 AND 801121 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.29 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 36. 91. 171. RBAR 0.212 0.333 0.448 SDEV 0.194 0.176 0.132 SERR 0.032 0.018 0.010 EPS 0.797 0.910 0.950 NSS 14.5 20.3 23.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1988 146 0.984 0.172 -0.008 3.271 0.203 -0.171 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.270 0.124 0.056 57 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 1.01 1.00 1.08 2.09 10.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.169 -0.082 0.151 -0.184 -0.094 0.077 -0.158 0.123 0.020 -0.116 PACF -0.169 -0.114 0.121 -0.153 -0.136 -0.006 -0.137 0.085 -0.019 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.166 0.170 0.171 0.175 0.180 0.181 0.182 0.186 0.188 0.188 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.043 -0.171 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 -0.089 0.114 -0.186 -0.120 0.037 -0.134 0.107 0.023 -0.102 PACF -0.020 -0.089 0.112 -0.194 -0.106 -0.013 -0.122 0.103 -0.050 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.169 0.175 0.177 0.177 0.180 0.181 0.182 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1988 146 0.985 0.182 -0.182 3.178 0.169 0.362 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.360 0.074 0.044 -0.186 -0.183 -0.078 -0.113 0.041 0.002 -0.087 PACF 0.360 -0.063 0.044 -0.246 -0.033 -0.002 -0.076 0.105 -0.117 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.166 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.192 0.197 0.197 0.199 0.199 0.199 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.134 0.362 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.47 MINUTES