RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.392 0.218 0.440 2.612 0.249 0.875 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.486 0.282 0.178 2.015 0.299 0.794 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.518 0.341 1.407 6.095 0.327 0.719 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.343 0.165 0.558 2.639 0.268 0.754 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.369 0.269 0.979 2.975 0.299 0.888 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.849 0.266 0.976 3.872 0.217 0.592 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.869 0.244 0.791 4.237 0.251 0.368 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.606 0.339 0.937 3.271 0.194 0.857 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.600 0.365 0.857 2.846 0.226 0.880 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.397 0.165 0.516 2.836 0.232 0.700 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.320 0.181 0.353 2.231 0.296 0.786 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.566 0.422 0.407 1.768 0.247 0.912 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.632 0.443 0.472 2.076 0.268 0.897 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.484 0.256 0.236 2.120 0.248 0.829 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.434 0.206 0.982 4.211 0.260 0.769 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.556 0.261 0.149 2.755 0.265 0.785 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.473 0.258 0.596 2.608 0.280 0.825 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.781 0.223 -0.004 2.157 0.182 0.659 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.519 0.150 0.057 3.047 0.206 0.629 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.555 0.333 0.458 2.368 0.260 0.863 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.493 0.291 0.473 2.670 0.277 0.775 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.690 0.390 0.280 2.140 0.287 0.812 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.503 0.221 0.356 2.667 0.270 0.706 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 0.541 0.273 0.541 2.879 0.257 0.768 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.149 0.082 0.353 0.963 0.036 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.518 0.261 0.472 2.667 0.260 0.786 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.149 0.117 0.507 0.817 0.039 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.320 0.150 -0.004 1.768 0.182 0.368 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.453 0.220 0.317 2.194 0.239 0.712 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 195 0.603 0.336 0.824 3.011 0.278 0.860 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 0.869 0.443 1.407 6.095 0.327 0.912 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.475 0.271 0.017 -0.572 2.274 -0.138 0.927 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.138 SERIES 817241 AND 817321 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.927 SERIES 817271 AND 817272 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.743 0.720 0.298 0.390 0.342 0.337 0.568 0.420 0.361 SDEV 0.000 0.099 0.289 0.261 0.249 0.263 0.197 0.307 0.314 SERR 0.000 0.057 0.118 0.035 0.020 0.017 0.012 0.020 0.022 EPS 0.891 0.927 0.816 0.915 0.917 0.921 0.968 0.942 0.925 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.522 0.199 -0.126 2.162 0.203 0.778 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.359 0.218 0.079 94 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.89 3.97 1.00 1.19 5.16 13.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.775 0.718 0.634 0.579 0.547 0.539 0.548 0.539 0.518 0.501 PACF 0.775 0.293 0.035 0.040 0.079 0.113 0.125 0.047 -0.004 0.024 95% C.L. 0.120 0.177 0.215 0.240 0.259 0.275 0.290 0.304 0.318 0.330 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.645 0.542 0.304 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069309 0.45981452 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00403780 0.83945715 3 817222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00537453 0.95121032 4 817231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139998 0.48121059 5 817232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062449 0.44563955 6 817241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00212131 0.70809972 7 817242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00180051 0.75049561 8 817251 1 1.23301959 0.01217002 0.00000000 0.13191412 9 817252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00508664 1.09605098 10 817261 1 0.33073801 0.02122402 0.00000000 0.29456502 11 817262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109365 0.42841461 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00741179 1.24003637 14 817281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00287319 0.74571455 15 817282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106842 0.53131491 16 817301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00220741 0.84192067 17 817302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221036 0.78235400 18 817311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00227184 0.89052182 19 817312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057188 0.46629894 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00477352 0.95086843 21 817322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00405468 0.85012609 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589812 1.08562541 23 817332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00188487 0.66748828 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.996 0.554 0.475 2.556 0.251 0.868 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.964 0.401 0.461 2.974 0.297 0.595 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.037 0.473 1.100 4.479 0.320 0.536 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.996 0.406 0.299 2.651 0.265 0.640 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.994 0.702 0.933 2.885 0.298 0.876 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.001 0.299 1.016 4.360 0.216 0.559 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.267 0.544 3.580 0.249 0.285 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.001 0.251 0.309 2.789 0.193 0.524 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.041 0.466 1.941 8.199 0.225 0.738 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.367 0.508 3.135 0.230 0.618 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.997 0.542 0.384 2.249 0.294 0.776 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.971 0.349 0.751 3.671 0.244 0.609 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.110 0.787 2.758 12.573 0.268 0.708 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.995 0.451 0.226 2.272 0.247 0.758 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.997 0.457 0.980 4.092 0.258 0.759 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.981 0.371 0.272 2.749 0.267 0.640 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.988 0.378 0.523 2.985 0.279 0.600 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.282 0.287 2.187 0.180 0.635 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.287 0.157 3.038 0.205 0.614 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.968 0.391 0.250 2.618 0.258 0.721 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.967 0.408 0.890 3.999 0.275 0.621 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.973 0.465 0.800 3.351 0.285 0.757 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.996 0.387 0.277 2.661 0.248 0.687 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 0.999 0.423 0.702 3.741 0.254 0.658 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.031 0.130 0.606 2.293 0.035 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.996 0.401 0.508 2.985 0.258 0.640 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.015 0.107 0.619 1.179 0.039 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.964 0.251 0.157 2.187 0.180 0.285 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.985 0.358 0.293 2.656 0.237 0.605 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.465 0.912 3.835 0.277 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.110 0.787 2.758 12.573 0.320 0.876 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.008 0.450 1.554 7.565 0.251 0.725 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.992 0.343 0.517 3.645 0.297 0.415 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.993 0.395 0.585 3.241 0.320 0.460 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.985 0.340 0.302 3.460 0.265 0.486 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.042 0.761 5.694 48.995 0.299 0.619 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.998 0.266 0.661 4.006 0.216 0.460 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.999 0.258 0.454 3.550 0.249 0.263 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.998 0.239 0.254 2.699 0.193 0.479 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.989 0.307 0.676 3.383 0.225 0.557 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.995 0.332 0.454 3.439 0.230 0.562 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.965 0.429 0.263 2.649 0.294 0.649 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.995 0.331 0.787 3.907 0.244 0.543 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.970 0.377 0.537 3.196 0.265 0.618 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.975 0.354 0.203 2.618 0.247 0.583 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.984 0.343 0.400 3.061 0.258 0.542 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.997 0.302 0.204 3.321 0.268 0.353 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.993 0.336 0.421 2.958 0.279 0.462 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.993 0.234 0.227 2.320 0.179 0.507 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.997 0.261 0.195 3.406 0.205 0.476 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.994 0.333 -0.014 2.941 0.257 0.572 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.995 0.353 0.957 4.640 0.274 0.471 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.993 0.363 0.693 4.158 0.284 0.506 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.990 0.311 0.250 2.745 0.248 0.490 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 0.993 0.349 0.707 5.474 0.254 0.513 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.014 0.105 1.135 9.544 0.035 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.993 0.336 0.454 3.383 0.257 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.008 0.054 0.417 0.826 0.039 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.965 0.234 -0.014 2.320 0.179 0.263 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.989 0.304 0.252 2.950 0.237 0.467 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 0.997 0.358 0.668 3.776 0.277 0.567 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.042 0.761 5.694 48.995 0.320 0.725 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.451 0.132 0.008 0.011 2.996 0.075 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.075 SERIES 817211 AND 817251 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.779 0.531 0.378 0.459 0.400 0.423 0.560 0.495 0.516 SDEV 0.000 0.239 0.241 0.160 0.214 0.170 0.186 0.222 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.138 0.098 0.022 0.017 0.011 0.012 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.909 0.849 0.864 0.934 0.934 0.944 0.967 0.957 0.959 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.972 0.232 0.101 2.778 0.200 0.447 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.319 0.157 0.054 75 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.52 1.00 1.08 1.60 7.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.445 0.349 0.222 0.051 0.035 -0.005 0.034 -0.003 -0.035 -0.007 PACF 0.445 0.188 0.016 -0.129 0.009 0.001 0.068 -0.041 -0.056 0.021 95% C.L. 0.120 0.141 0.153 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.227 0.362 0.189 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.463 0.396 0.336 0.101 0.135 0.028 0.056 -0.013 -0.032 -0.030 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.463 2 0.356 0.231 3 0.329 0.189 0.118 4 0.351 0.224 0.181 -0.190 5 0.362 0.214 0.168 -0.210 0.058 6 0.366 0.201 0.178 -0.197 0.080 -0.061 7 0.371 0.194 0.196 -0.213 0.061 -0.094 0.090 8 0.380 0.185 0.202 -0.234 0.081 -0.075 0.128 -0.100 9 0.381 0.184 0.202 -0.235 0.081 -0.075 0.127 -0.100 0.001 10 0.381 0.180 0.207 -0.238 0.085 -0.084 0.135 -0.093 0.017 -0.040 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2358.59 2293.00 2279.68 2277.72 2269.45 2270.52 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2271.48 2271.18 2270.38 2272.38 2273.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.351 0.224 0.181 -0.190 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 29.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 141.47 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.351 0.348 0.382 0.086 0.112 0.062 -0.010 0.014 -0.007 -.0129 -0.002 -0.008 -0.004 -0.001 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 4 0.608 0.662 0.082 0.124 -0.059 2 817221 4 0.289 0.278 0.318 0.158 -0.181 3 817222 4 0.327 0.301 0.308 0.145 -0.115 4 817231 4 0.316 0.333 0.275 0.053 0.001 5 817232 4 0.666 0.629 0.294 0.158 -0.343 6 817241 4 0.320 0.352 0.262 0.189 -0.260 7 817242 4 0.133 0.211 0.212 0.102 -0.149 8 817251 4 0.263 0.415 0.130 0.103 -0.110 9 817252 4 0.335 0.484 0.169 -0.029 -0.016 10 817261 4 0.376 0.450 0.237 0.112 -0.217 11 817262 4 0.488 0.468 0.198 0.220 -0.137 12 817271 4 0.356 0.405 0.243 0.120 -0.126 13 817272 4 0.452 0.453 0.271 0.094 -0.104 14 817281 4 0.389 0.426 0.224 0.086 -0.036 15 817282 4 0.380 0.369 0.244 0.159 -0.069 16 817301 4 0.190 0.294 0.156 0.156 -0.161 17 817302 4 0.246 0.387 0.109 0.138 -0.073 18 817311 4 0.301 0.467 0.091 0.132 -0.191 19 817312 4 0.242 0.494 0.000 0.002 -0.024 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 4 0.361 0.475 0.130 0.142 -0.105 21 817322 4 0.290 0.366 0.152 0.183 -0.098 22 817331 4 0.349 0.534 -0.058 0.315 -0.233 23 817332 4 0.291 0.435 0.099 0.186 -0.179 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.346 0.421 0.180 0.133 -0.130 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.120 0.106 0.098 0.070 0.084 MEDIAN 4 0.327 0.426 0.198 0.138 -0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.089 0.112 0.134 0.056 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.133 0.211 -0.058 -0.029 -0.343 LOWER HINGE 4 0.289 0.359 0.120 0.103 -0.180 UPPER HINGE 4 0.378 0.472 0.253 0.158 -0.071 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.666 0.662 0.318 0.315 0.001 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.281 0.322 3.464 0.319 0.045 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.290 0.379 3.446 0.318 0.013 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.325 0.183 3.052 0.358 0.006 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.281 0.506 3.807 0.298 -0.003 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.002 0.375 1.923 16.245 0.399 -0.134 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.219 0.558 3.865 0.244 0.010 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.240 0.530 4.226 0.267 -0.002 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.205 0.238 2.770 0.231 0.002 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.250 0.505 3.833 0.278 -0.005 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.262 0.470 4.229 0.278 0.003 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.308 0.161 4.042 0.334 0.015 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.265 0.732 3.343 0.286 -0.006 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.280 0.439 3.977 0.303 0.017 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.277 0.669 4.081 0.287 -0.002 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.270 0.307 2.858 0.299 -0.015 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.001 0.270 0.091 3.618 0.292 0.022 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.292 0.508 3.734 0.316 0.002 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.196 0.228 3.477 0.197 0.005 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.226 0.009 4.130 0.248 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.267 -0.133 3.076 0.302 0.009 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.300 0.769 4.214 0.313 -0.011 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.290 0.611 3.817 0.307 -0.006 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.262 0.184 3.175 0.284 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.271 0.443 4.195 0.294 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.039 0.397 2.664 0.042 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.270 0.439 3.807 0.298 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.034 0.338 0.667 0.037 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.196 -0.133 2.770 0.197 -0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.256 0.206 3.395 0.278 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.290 0.544 4.062 0.315 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.002 0.375 1.923 16.245 0.399 0.045 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.497 0.106 0.007 0.151 3.017 0.265 0.835 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.265 SERIES 817242 AND 817301 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.835 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.746 0.553 0.411 0.527 0.485 0.526 0.572 0.566 0.524 SDEV 0.000 0.215 0.217 0.122 0.193 0.125 0.108 0.103 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.124 0.088 0.016 0.016 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.892 0.860 0.880 0.949 0.953 0.962 0.969 0.967 0.960 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.991 0.201 0.130 3.108 0.229 -0.040 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.207 0.088 0.070 69 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.64 1.00 1.06 1.69 10.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.040 0.012 -0.025 -0.026 -0.049 -0.051 0.071 -0.009 -0.060 0.014 PACF -0.040 0.010 -0.024 -0.028 -0.051 -0.056 0.066 -0.006 -0.068 0.007 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.003 0.001 0.000 -0.055 -0.052 0.069 -0.008 -0.064 0.007 PACF -0.002 -0.003 0.001 0.000 -0.055 -0.052 0.069 -0.008 -0.064 0.003 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.003 -0.002 -0.003 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.993 0.236 0.119 2.773 0.196 0.459 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.458 0.382 0.301 0.083 0.040 -0.013 0.005 -0.038 -0.055 -0.034 PACF 0.458 0.218 0.085 -0.174 -0.043 -0.017 0.078 -0.044 -0.050 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.120 0.142 0.156 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.279 0.355 0.222 0.148 -0.181 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.10 MINUTES