RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050i.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050i.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) DENSITY_EARLY PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 3.253 0.344 1.783 6.976 0.056 0.734 2 817221 1815 1988 174 3.887 0.442 0.951 4.660 0.055 0.758 3 817222 1827 1988 162 3.918 0.395 0.754 3.920 0.060 0.704 4 817231 1791 1988 198 4.351 0.388 1.278 4.762 0.056 0.628 5 817232 1745 1988 244 4.085 0.365 0.654 2.927 0.059 0.618 6 817241 1857 1988 132 3.181 0.225 -0.148 2.604 0.043 0.723 7 817242 1860 1988 129 3.259 0.425 2.557 10.622 0.071 0.642 8 817251 1797 1988 192 3.137 0.190 0.849 4.605 0.048 0.492 9 817252 1795 1988 194 3.085 0.242 -0.008 3.514 0.052 0.615 10 817261 1846 1988 143 3.687 0.235 0.556 3.377 0.049 0.497 11 817262 1791 1988 198 3.883 0.400 2.430 16.829 0.058 0.666 12 817271 1831 1988 158 3.679 0.417 0.757 3.681 0.064 0.640 13 817272 1826 1988 163 3.350 0.327 0.626 3.397 0.058 0.670 14 817281 1808 1988 181 3.485 0.254 0.637 4.421 0.058 0.416 15 817282 1808 1988 181 3.684 0.431 1.473 6.524 0.067 0.657 16 817301 1729 1988 260 3.485 0.388 1.700 7.805 0.062 0.685 17 817302 1709 1987 279 3.531 0.429 1.979 8.320 0.062 0.726 18 817311 1842 1936 95 3.823 0.311 1.021 4.076 0.052 0.676 19 817312 1807 1988 182 3.676 0.382 2.371 9.224 0.045 0.787 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 3.858 0.515 1.013 4.246 0.070 0.707 21 817322 1813 1987 175 3.759 0.473 1.261 4.730 0.083 0.521 22 817331 1855 1987 133 3.254 0.276 0.616 3.386 0.060 0.536 23 817332 1835 1987 153 3.581 0.352 1.132 6.803 0.057 0.658 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 3.604 0.357 1.141 5.713 0.058 0.642 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.326 0.086 0.725 3.241 0.009 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 3.676 0.382 1.013 4.605 0.058 0.658 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.536 0.128 0.941 3.292 0.009 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 95 3.085 0.190 -0.148 2.604 0.043 0.416 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 3.304 0.293 0.645 3.598 0.053 0.617 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 195 3.840 0.421 1.587 6.890 0.062 0.705 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 4.351 0.515 2.557 16.829 0.083 0.787 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.352 0.246 0.015 -0.457 2.413 -0.258 0.883 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.258 SERIES 817242 AND 817272 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.883 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.498 0.568 0.295 0.441 0.432 0.358 0.430 0.473 0.424 SDEV 0.000 0.077 0.378 0.186 0.213 0.239 0.188 0.249 0.251 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.154 0.025 0.017 0.015 0.012 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.737 0.867 0.814 0.930 0.942 0.928 0.945 0.953 0.942 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 3.716 0.391 1.914 7.934 0.051 0.724 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.065 -0.036 0.533 44 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.49 1.01 1.08 1.57 11.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.722 0.654 0.631 0.548 0.530 0.513 0.523 0.487 0.472 0.458 PACF 0.722 0.278 0.203 -0.010 0.085 0.070 0.136 -0.007 0.027 0.015 95% C.L. 0.120 0.171 0.203 0.230 0.248 0.263 0.277 0.291 0.303 0.313 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.626 0.467 0.160 0.238 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 1 1.75145030 0.08958257 0.00000000 3.15663505 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00551043 3.40530872 3 817222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00510174 3.49574447 4 817231 1 1.49868870 0.06140003 0.00000000 4.23341942 5 817232 1 0.84816498 0.02104645 0.00000000 3.92303777 6 817241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00172551 3.29550433 7 817242 1 1.00816357 0.04242235 0.00000000 3.07856536 8 817251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073566 3.06551981 9 817252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00212856 2.87777472 10 817261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105687 3.61103821 11 817262 1 1.16138256 0.03954086 0.00000000 3.73715830 12 817271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078396 3.61640978 13 817272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00386484 3.03314471 14 817281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031421 3.45682144 15 817282 1 1.02325022 0.02789657 0.00000000 3.48581409 16 817301 1 1.29379892 0.05016639 0.00000000 3.38863111 17 817302 1 2.01838970 0.05353655 0.00000000 3.39953566 18 817311 1 0.50475764 0.03007759 0.00000000 3.65904522 19 817312 1 1.84686410 0.06899013 0.00000000 3.53435898 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00703566 3.27379751 21 817322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00168041 3.61126709 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046434 3.22279906 23 817332 1 1.03416681 0.04545163 0.00000000 3.37402534 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.068 0.498 3.602 0.055 0.467 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.090 1.269 6.995 0.054 0.593 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.080 1.150 5.483 0.060 0.522 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.064 1.083 6.807 0.056 0.310 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.073 0.481 3.578 0.059 0.415 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.068 0.175 2.703 0.042 0.685 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.100 1.532 7.444 0.070 0.484 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.059 0.911 4.870 0.047 0.466 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.069 0.308 3.243 0.052 0.512 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.063 0.780 4.200 0.048 0.480 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.078 1.328 8.908 0.058 0.463 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.113 0.914 4.254 0.063 0.631 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.082 0.589 3.139 0.058 0.550 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.073 0.680 4.619 0.058 0.411 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.093 0.872 4.566 0.067 0.494 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.089 1.371 7.527 0.062 0.522 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.075 0.745 3.548 0.062 0.403 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.073 0.527 3.045 0.051 0.585 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.053 1.248 5.451 0.044 0.416 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.102 0.881 3.838 0.070 0.519 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.125 1.598 6.140 0.082 0.506 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.084 0.600 3.438 0.059 0.531 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.078 0.589 3.090 0.056 0.520 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.081 0.875 4.804 0.058 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.017 0.391 1.738 0.009 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.078 0.872 4.254 0.058 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.021 0.610 2.318 0.009 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.053 0.175 2.703 0.042 0.310 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.069 0.589 3.493 0.053 0.464 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.089 1.199 5.811 0.062 0.527 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.125 1.598 8.908 0.082 0.685 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.055 0.201 3.534 0.055 0.201 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.068 1.542 9.244 0.054 0.370 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.070 0.826 4.923 0.059 0.400 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.061 1.344 8.807 0.055 0.239 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.066 0.460 4.034 0.059 0.285 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.051 -0.145 3.149 0.042 0.417 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.097 1.546 7.520 0.070 0.456 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.054 0.631 4.044 0.047 0.378 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.062 0.348 3.121 0.052 0.408 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.053 0.500 3.304 0.048 0.296 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.073 1.640 10.901 0.058 0.393 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.999 0.071 0.336 4.382 0.063 0.230 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.063 0.580 4.015 0.058 0.277 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.063 0.595 5.585 0.058 0.234 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.083 0.946 5.178 0.067 0.374 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.073 1.268 6.134 0.062 0.348 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.068 0.835 4.180 0.062 0.289 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.066 0.534 3.158 0.051 0.501 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.048 1.327 6.430 0.044 0.325 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.999 0.077 1.177 4.532 0.070 0.231 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.105 1.301 4.893 0.082 0.347 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.072 0.614 3.442 0.059 0.405 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.062 0.631 4.151 0.056 0.280 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.068 0.828 5.159 0.058 0.334 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.014 0.483 2.126 0.009 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.066 0.631 4.382 0.058 0.347 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.011 0.768 2.085 0.009 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.999 0.048 -0.145 3.121 0.042 0.201 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.061 0.517 3.774 0.053 0.279 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.073 1.285 5.860 0.062 0.396 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.105 1.640 10.901 0.082 0.501 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.407 0.125 0.008 -0.360 3.400 -0.047 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.047 SERIES 817242 AND 817322 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.346 0.523 0.367 0.433 0.433 0.403 0.443 0.457 0.527 SDEV 0.000 0.099 0.163 0.174 0.181 0.199 0.156 0.167 0.170 SERR 0.000 0.057 0.066 0.024 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.598 0.845 0.858 0.928 0.942 0.940 0.948 0.950 0.961 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.999 0.053 0.992 5.391 0.048 0.277 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.210 0.098 -0.055 89 191 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.89 1.00 1.08 1.97 9.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.276 0.111 0.048 -0.012 0.025 -0.070 0.036 -0.041 -0.074 -0.051 PACF 0.276 0.037 0.008 -0.034 0.037 -0.090 0.081 -0.070 -0.051 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.120 0.128 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.079 0.278 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.223 0.135 0.036 -0.054 0.067 -0.061 0.068 -0.080 -0.111 -0.075 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.223 2 0.203 0.090 3 0.204 0.092 -0.013 4 0.203 0.099 0.003 -0.075 5 0.210 0.099 -0.007 -0.094 0.096 6 0.218 0.091 -0.007 -0.086 0.114 -0.084 7 0.226 0.081 0.000 -0.085 0.106 -0.104 0.088 8 0.236 0.069 0.012 -0.095 0.106 -0.095 0.114 -0.114 9 0.227 0.078 0.005 -0.087 0.099 -0.094 0.119 -0.095 -0.078 10 0.224 0.075 0.009 -0.090 0.102 -0.097 0.119 -0.092 -0.069 -0.039 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1414.37 1402.14 1401.87 1403.82 1404.25 1403.64 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1403.63 1403.45 1401.81 1402.10 1403.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.203 0.090 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.72 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.07 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.203 0.131 0.045 0.021 0.008 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 2 0.063 0.186 0.073 2 817221 2 0.171 0.321 0.156 3 817222 2 0.192 0.327 0.187 4 817231 2 0.080 0.207 0.143 5 817232 2 0.135 0.221 0.237 6 817241 2 0.240 0.334 0.235 7 817242 2 0.212 0.475 -0.036 8 817251 2 0.162 0.353 0.077 9 817252 2 0.193 0.354 0.149 10 817261 2 0.127 0.263 0.141 11 817262 2 0.166 0.378 0.043 12 817271 2 0.057 0.245 -0.038 13 817272 2 0.088 0.252 0.098 14 817281 2 0.062 0.217 0.082 15 817282 2 0.159 0.325 0.134 16 817301 2 0.181 0.283 0.193 17 817302 2 0.096 0.261 0.102 18 817311 2 0.262 0.461 0.089 19 817312 2 0.115 0.295 0.097 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 2 0.066 0.210 0.106 21 817322 2 0.135 0.367 -0.045 22 817331 2 0.206 0.332 0.202 23 817332 2 0.083 0.271 0.037 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.141 0.302 0.107 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.061 0.077 0.080 MEDIAN 2 0.135 0.295 0.102 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.101 0.096 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.057 0.186 -0.045 LOWER HINGE 2 0.085 0.248 0.075 UPPER HINGE 2 0.186 0.344 0.152 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.262 0.475 0.237 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.053 0.200 3.708 0.061 -0.010 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.062 0.945 7.697 0.064 -0.023 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.063 0.683 4.573 0.069 0.004 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.059 1.216 8.628 0.062 -0.006 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.061 0.539 4.233 0.065 0.001 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.045 -0.082 2.612 0.050 -0.006 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.086 0.573 5.542 0.086 0.001 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.050 0.729 4.365 0.055 -0.005 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.056 0.353 3.631 0.062 -0.007 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.050 0.269 3.110 0.055 0.021 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.067 1.731 11.095 0.068 0.005 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.068 0.298 4.456 0.071 -0.005 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.060 0.580 4.622 0.065 -0.002 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.061 0.685 6.105 0.063 0.000 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.076 0.991 5.931 0.077 0.007 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.067 1.148 6.543 0.072 -0.030 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.065 0.720 4.068 0.071 -0.003 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.057 0.302 2.976 0.061 -0.006 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.045 1.034 5.326 0.050 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.075 1.015 4.305 0.078 -0.002 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.098 1.014 3.887 0.100 0.009 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.064 0.512 3.382 0.069 0.005 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.060 0.732 4.568 0.062 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.063 0.704 5.016 0.067 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.012 0.403 1.981 0.011 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.061 0.685 4.456 0.065 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.011 0.570 1.939 0.009 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.045 -0.082 2.612 0.050 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.056 0.432 3.797 0.062 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.067 1.003 5.737 0.071 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.098 1.731 11.095 0.100 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.445 0.120 0.008 -0.614 4.270 -0.100 0.762 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.100 SERIES 817242 AND 817322 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.762 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.376 0.563 0.508 0.517 0.495 0.393 0.447 0.528 0.559 SDEV 0.000 0.093 0.110 0.167 0.179 0.200 0.137 0.127 0.142 SERR 0.000 0.054 0.045 0.023 0.014 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.630 0.865 0.915 0.947 0.954 0.937 0.949 0.962 0.965 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.999 0.050 0.851 5.328 0.055 -0.008 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.247 0.111 -0.073 94 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.12 1.00 1.10 2.21 10.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.084 0.004 -0.042 0.042 -0.071 0.070 -0.037 -0.056 -0.040 PACF -0.008 -0.084 0.003 -0.049 0.042 -0.080 0.079 -0.054 -0.038 -0.060 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.004 0.005 -0.057 0.048 -0.078 0.069 -0.046 -0.052 -0.037 PACF 0.000 -0.004 0.005 -0.057 0.048 -0.080 0.072 -0.053 -0.044 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.999 0.051 0.984 5.389 0.050 0.218 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.217 0.123 0.038 -0.035 0.031 -0.066 0.041 -0.054 -0.057 -0.039 PACF 0.217 0.079 -0.004 -0.055 0.048 -0.077 0.068 -0.070 -0.038 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.120 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.054 0.219 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES