RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 817221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1821 1825 / 1945 1949 / 1970 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1910 1913 / 1974 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 817302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 817331 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1966 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.103 0.036 0.527 3.075 0.222 0.643 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.109 0.060 0.791 3.343 0.218 0.867 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.117 0.067 1.455 5.637 0.207 0.762 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.090 0.044 2.705 15.078 0.269 0.554 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.105 0.067 1.580 5.293 0.267 0.764 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.113 0.041 3.006 16.608 0.238 0.502 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.122 0.093 6.979 54.730 0.258 0.207 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.101 0.056 1.883 7.169 0.229 0.740 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.112 0.062 1.576 5.035 0.241 0.714 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.102 0.058 2.412 12.583 0.244 0.563 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.107 0.075 3.080 17.416 0.275 0.667 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.147 0.143 1.961 6.121 0.295 0.746 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.120 0.072 1.384 5.047 0.286 0.620 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.121 0.057 1.567 6.372 0.254 0.605 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.115 0.053 1.514 5.910 0.237 0.666 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.130 0.070 1.312 5.351 0.269 0.759 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.137 0.109 2.817 15.604 0.272 0.737 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.219 0.101 0.832 3.209 0.255 0.727 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.113 0.046 2.007 9.060 0.275 0.379 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.149 0.092 0.955 3.226 0.250 0.785 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.144 0.107 3.647 19.064 0.272 0.469 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.185 0.090 1.467 4.857 0.261 0.598 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.111 0.056 2.624 10.661 0.260 0.535 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.125 0.072 2.090 10.454 0.254 0.635 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.029 0.026 1.341 10.908 0.022 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.115 0.067 1.580 6.121 0.258 0.666 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.025 0.035 1.245 8.789 0.031 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.090 0.036 0.527 3.075 0.207 0.207 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 148 0.108 0.056 1.420 5.041 0.239 0.558 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 195 0.133 0.091 2.664 13.830 0.271 0.743 MAXIMUM VALUE 270 0.219 0.143 6.979 54.730 0.295 0.867 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.494 0.175 0.011 -0.504 2.364 0.002 0.849 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.002 SERIES 817242 AND 817332 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.849 SERIES 817251 AND 817252 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.687 0.448 0.096 0.208 0.233 0.345 0.452 0.166 0.190 SDEV 0.000 0.142 0.327 0.243 0.185 0.192 0.191 0.202 0.224 SERR 0.000 0.082 0.133 0.033 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.861 0.802 0.525 0.815 0.866 0.924 0.950 0.818 0.838 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.146 0.093 3.716 24.712 0.205 0.713 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.157 0.055 0.033 116 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 2.23 1.02 1.28 3.51 62.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.711 0.562 0.484 0.471 0.408 0.383 0.435 0.464 0.453 0.441 PACF 0.711 0.116 0.100 0.148 -0.017 0.072 0.198 0.098 0.051 0.061 95% C.L. 0.120 0.169 0.194 0.211 0.225 0.236 0.244 0.255 0.267 0.278 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.530 0.600 0.043 0.016 0.149 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027713 0.13020627 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100688 0.19617453 3 817222 1 0.22063427 0.01502733 0.00000000 0.03273541 4 817231 1 0.11069440 0.00779200 0.00000000 0.03356370 5 817232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024299 0.13501215 6 817241 1 0.20461042 0.19988944 0.00000000 0.10610066 7 817242 1 0.14328520 0.03554845 0.00000000 0.09137299 8 817251 1 0.18809843 0.02223367 0.00000000 0.05828868 9 817252 1 0.20005228 0.01789564 0.00000000 0.05652625 10 817261 1 0.17142689 0.01625511 0.00000000 0.03624672 11 817262 1 0.17253608 0.00645635 0.00000000 0.00945720 12 817271 1 0.47321177 0.02667729 0.00000000 0.03750843 13 817272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115539 0.21486481 14 817281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071121 0.18610129 15 817282 1 0.16156374 0.02235981 0.00000000 0.07607724 16 817301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072405 0.22432038 17 817302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095104 0.26772901 18 817311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00237248 0.33240536 19 817312 1 0.09961344 0.01075466 0.00000000 0.06917021 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148497 0.27216187 21 817322 1 0.24447377 0.01074886 0.00000000 0.03427700 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149208 0.28089541 23 817332 1 0.17223386 0.05902356 0.00000000 0.08954922 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.996 0.298 0.519 3.489 0.222 0.525 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.020 0.340 1.384 6.104 0.212 0.610 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.997 0.264 0.774 3.637 0.202 0.407 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.344 1.565 8.070 0.274 0.283 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.992 0.584 1.495 5.202 0.266 0.749 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.275 1.416 5.783 0.238 0.246 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.494 5.240 37.370 0.262 0.102 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.250 0.807 3.917 0.228 0.264 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.279 1.321 6.297 0.240 0.288 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.002 0.323 1.653 6.463 0.243 0.230 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.002 0.528 1.258 5.316 0.275 0.670 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.010 0.497 1.662 5.742 0.293 0.552 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.019 0.357 1.022 3.765 0.286 0.330 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.007 0.333 1.242 5.878 0.253 0.438 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.290 0.939 3.490 0.237 0.293 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.012 0.314 0.964 4.233 0.270 0.284 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.458 2.646 7.675 69.082 0.276 0.749 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.004 0.360 0.658 2.962 0.251 0.537 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.323 1.169 4.464 0.274 0.243 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.015 0.349 0.618 2.968 0.251 0.482 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.466 3.351 18.707 0.272 0.274 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.009 0.373 1.832 9.421 0.255 0.346 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.315 1.525 7.505 0.251 0.253 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.024 0.461 1.743 9.994 0.254 0.398 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.095 0.485 1.637 14.816 0.023 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.340 1.321 5.742 0.253 0.330 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.010 0.113 0.657 3.142 0.033 0.262 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.992 0.250 0.519 2.962 0.202 0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.306 0.952 3.841 0.239 0.269 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.010 0.419 1.609 6.984 0.273 0.531 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.458 2.646 7.675 69.082 0.293 0.749 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.997 0.240 0.940 5.166 0.223 0.178 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.995 0.272 0.470 3.237 0.211 0.486 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.998 0.252 0.760 3.590 0.202 0.347 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.999 0.337 1.528 8.162 0.274 0.262 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.990 0.394 1.573 6.655 0.268 0.425 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.999 0.257 1.415 6.314 0.238 0.158 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.998 0.472 5.067 35.792 0.262 0.086 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.999 0.240 0.850 4.235 0.228 0.207 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.998 0.266 1.353 6.786 0.240 0.226 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.998 0.303 2.158 9.281 0.243 0.130 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.975 0.446 2.166 11.637 0.275 0.530 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.991 0.371 1.256 5.374 0.293 0.313 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.996 0.319 1.046 4.335 0.285 0.192 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.994 0.289 1.424 7.275 0.253 0.286 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.996 0.269 1.041 4.076 0.237 0.169 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.999 0.299 0.948 4.451 0.270 0.242 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.057 0.557 1.758 9.486 0.275 0.645 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.990 0.298 0.579 2.872 0.252 0.392 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.997 0.306 1.195 4.729 0.274 0.158 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.995 0.300 0.367 2.665 0.250 0.388 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.997 0.447 3.206 17.962 0.271 0.252 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.996 0.320 1.045 5.033 0.254 0.266 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.998 0.309 1.692 8.621 0.251 0.223 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 0.998 0.329 1.471 7.728 0.253 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.014 0.083 1.004 7.010 0.023 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.997 0.303 1.256 5.374 0.253 0.252 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.004 0.084 0.689 4.106 0.033 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.975 0.240 0.367 2.665 0.202 0.086 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.995 0.270 0.944 4.285 0.239 0.185 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 0.998 0.354 1.633 8.391 0.273 0.368 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.057 0.557 5.067 35.792 0.293 0.645 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.203 0.127 0.008 -0.114 2.472 -0.105 0.485 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.105 SERIES 817232 AND 817322 175 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.485 SERIES 817261 AND 817262 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.646 0.322 0.188 0.223 0.191 0.238 0.315 0.198 0.241 SDEV 0.000 0.294 0.255 0.185 0.193 0.192 0.185 0.175 0.159 SERR 0.000 0.170 0.104 0.025 0.016 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.837 0.703 0.708 0.828 0.834 0.878 0.914 0.848 0.875 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.977 0.276 1.460 7.808 0.236 0.358 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.358 0.181 0.051 92 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.81 1.00 1.13 1.94 10.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.356 0.197 0.054 -0.013 -0.116 -0.102 0.001 0.024 0.033 0.017 PACF 0.356 0.081 -0.045 -0.039 -0.112 -0.025 0.086 0.020 0.003 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.120 0.134 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.133 0.357 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.307 0.349 0.211 0.130 0.101 -0.001 0.096 0.018 0.080 0.015 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.307 2 0.221 0.281 3 0.205 0.269 0.057 4 0.207 0.276 0.063 -0.029 5 0.207 0.276 0.061 -0.030 0.004 6 0.207 0.274 0.066 -0.010 0.019 -0.074 7 0.214 0.272 0.067 -0.016 -0.006 -0.094 0.094 8 0.214 0.272 0.067 -0.016 -0.006 -0.093 0.095 -0.002 9 0.214 0.267 0.071 -0.016 -0.005 -0.096 0.082 -0.013 0.048 10 0.216 0.267 0.074 -0.019 -0.006 -0.097 0.084 -0.003 0.055 -0.035 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2137.40 2111.64 2090.60 2091.71 2093.47 2095.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2095.92 2095.41 2097.41 2098.77 2100.43 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.221 0.281 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.59 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.89 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.221 0.330 0.135 0.122 0.065 0.049 0.029 0.020 0.013 0.0084 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 2 0.042 0.161 0.097 2 817221 2 0.336 0.379 0.236 3 817222 2 0.188 0.267 0.240 4 817231 2 0.070 0.263 0.007 5 817232 2 0.229 0.332 0.220 6 817241 2 0.065 0.137 0.147 7 817242 2 0.013 0.092 -0.070 8 817251 2 0.067 0.210 -0.008 9 817252 2 0.084 0.212 0.069 10 817261 2 0.059 0.104 0.201 11 817262 2 0.315 0.449 0.154 12 817271 2 0.150 0.244 0.222 13 817272 2 0.109 0.142 0.260 14 817281 2 0.092 0.269 0.061 15 817282 2 0.095 0.127 0.250 16 817301 2 0.081 0.205 0.150 17 817302 2 0.480 0.485 0.267 18 817311 2 0.162 0.385 0.036 19 817312 2 0.037 0.166 -0.016 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 2 0.194 0.324 0.184 21 817322 2 0.120 0.266 -0.039 22 817331 2 0.110 0.216 0.192 23 817332 2 0.098 0.191 0.153 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.139 0.245 0.131 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.107 0.106 MEDIAN 2 0.098 0.216 0.153 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.107 0.133 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.013 0.092 -0.070 LOWER HINGE 2 0.068 0.164 0.048 UPPER HINGE 2 0.175 0.296 0.221 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.480 0.485 0.267 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.235 1.007 5.226 0.239 -0.004 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.230 0.499 3.312 0.253 -0.052 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.229 0.908 4.375 0.233 -0.033 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.325 1.626 7.939 0.317 -0.001 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.347 1.960 11.070 0.319 -0.023 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.251 1.636 7.549 0.255 0.021 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.470 5.020 35.664 0.286 -0.001 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.234 0.812 4.100 0.252 0.003 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.259 1.205 5.997 0.267 -0.012 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.295 2.306 10.376 0.264 -0.009 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.004 0.358 2.602 18.612 0.334 0.042 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.344 1.502 6.599 0.334 -0.020 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.302 1.102 4.493 0.301 0.022 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.276 1.196 6.896 0.287 -0.005 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.256 0.916 4.344 0.266 -0.020 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.286 1.092 5.059 0.296 -0.004 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.002 0.396 2.226 13.753 0.362 0.003 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.273 0.908 3.261 0.285 0.002 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.301 1.241 4.888 0.298 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.270 0.569 2.914 0.294 -0.017 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.001 0.430 2.827 15.872 0.325 0.020 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.303 1.435 6.286 0.275 -0.014 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.297 1.922 11.000 0.282 -0.025 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.303 1.588 8.678 0.288 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.001 0.064 0.977 7.221 0.033 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.295 1.241 6.286 0.286 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.077 0.979 6.254 0.044 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.229 0.499 2.914 0.233 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.258 0.962 4.434 0.265 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.334 1.941 10.688 0.309 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.004 0.470 5.020 35.664 0.362 0.042 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.205 0.123 0.008 -0.065 2.575 -0.111 0.515 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.111 SERIES 817232 AND 817242 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.515 SERIES 817261 AND 817262 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.548 0.384 0.218 0.217 0.195 0.281 0.319 0.193 0.183 SDEV 0.000 0.230 0.262 0.169 0.187 0.194 0.166 0.140 0.143 SERR 0.000 0.133 0.107 0.023 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.773 0.757 0.745 0.823 0.837 0.900 0.915 0.844 0.831 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.981 0.244 1.491 8.756 0.255 0.023 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.264 0.134 0.066 89 191 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.07 1.00 1.12 2.19 56.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.023 -0.031 -0.043 -0.010 -0.107 -0.116 0.034 0.065 0.053 -0.046 PACF 0.023 -0.032 -0.041 -0.009 -0.110 -0.116 0.030 0.048 0.042 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 -0.044 -0.011 -0.105 -0.113 0.034 0.058 0.051 -0.038 PACF -0.001 0.001 -0.044 -0.011 -0.105 -0.117 0.031 0.050 0.041 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.981 0.261 1.241 7.041 0.240 0.267 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.266 0.309 0.067 0.049 -0.065 -0.075 0.012 0.032 0.034 0.001 PACF 0.266 0.256 -0.071 -0.034 -0.076 -0.054 0.096 0.060 -0.013 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.120 0.128 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.137 0.198 0.257 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES