RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) DENSITY_MINIMUM PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 817251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1930 1938 / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 817252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 817272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1809 1813 / 1921 1925 / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.280 0.034 1.235 4.579 0.060 0.767 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.334 0.049 1.060 4.506 0.062 0.785 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.329 0.042 0.885 4.025 0.067 0.739 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.373 0.036 1.057 4.112 0.064 0.547 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.350 0.038 0.911 3.965 0.071 0.581 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.257 0.023 0.045 2.587 0.058 0.653 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.258 0.037 2.557 10.960 0.082 0.581 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.264 0.022 0.772 3.506 0.055 0.577 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.261 0.028 -0.338 2.952 0.059 0.705 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.310 0.025 0.147 2.652 0.064 0.463 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.330 0.042 1.913 12.452 0.073 0.609 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.312 0.041 0.565 3.088 0.070 0.683 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.288 0.038 0.403 2.833 0.068 0.735 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.291 0.030 0.864 4.429 0.062 0.607 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.311 0.045 1.332 6.209 0.081 0.670 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.293 0.036 1.251 6.507 0.075 0.611 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.299 0.041 1.743 7.865 0.078 0.637 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.313 0.022 0.810 5.075 0.054 0.554 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.311 0.039 2.287 9.640 0.053 0.789 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.313 0.056 1.426 6.202 0.079 0.734 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.316 0.053 1.197 4.663 0.093 0.599 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.271 0.033 0.592 3.187 0.077 0.627 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.294 0.038 1.460 8.017 0.072 0.655 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.303 0.037 1.051 5.392 0.069 0.648 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.030 0.009 0.686 2.736 0.010 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.310 0.038 1.057 4.506 0.068 0.637 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.031 0.010 0.697 3.011 0.015 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.257 0.022 -0.338 2.587 0.053 0.463 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.284 0.031 0.682 3.347 0.061 0.590 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 193 0.315 0.042 1.379 6.358 0.076 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 0.373 0.056 2.557 12.452 0.093 0.789 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.338 0.287 0.018 -0.504 2.413 -0.323 0.884 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.323 SERIES 817242 AND 817272 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.884 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.443 0.591 0.301 0.432 0.445 0.282 0.383 0.391 0.360 SDEV 0.000 0.030 0.387 0.208 0.220 0.241 0.188 0.292 0.268 SERR 0.000 0.017 0.158 0.028 0.018 0.015 0.012 0.019 0.019 EPS 0.691 0.878 0.818 0.927 0.945 0.900 0.935 0.935 0.925 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.311 0.036 2.011 9.571 0.058 0.678 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.036 -0.020 0.045 60 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.35 1.00 1.08 1.43 13.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.675 0.620 0.618 0.495 0.483 0.447 0.451 0.397 0.390 0.377 PACF 0.675 0.302 0.247 -0.068 0.069 0.018 0.134 -0.046 0.049 0.003 95% C.L. 0.120 0.165 0.196 0.222 0.237 0.251 0.262 0.273 0.281 0.288 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.597 0.394 0.163 0.306 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 1 0.14621106 0.09060594 0.00000000 0.27196276 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061208 0.28086838 3 817222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00058621 0.28120333 4 817231 1 0.13069019 0.09124737 0.00000000 0.36637506 5 817232 1 0.08797651 0.03344540 0.00000000 0.33932012 6 817241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020994 0.27055171 7 817242 1 0.10191714 0.04896884 0.00000000 0.24214800 8 817251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020084 0.24494120 9 817252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033136 0.22934374 10 817261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013596 0.29972127 11 817262 1 0.12139671 0.05839926 0.00000000 0.31965348 12 817271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037648 0.28196889 13 817272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049529 0.24654099 14 817281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016896 0.27523205 15 817282 1 0.10565674 0.03274008 0.00000000 0.29399985 16 817301 1 0.09950047 0.06212936 0.00000000 0.28692257 17 817302 1 0.19601694 0.07690340 0.00000000 0.29038680 18 817311 1 0.03273152 0.04136640 0.00000000 0.30473936 19 817312 1 0.17895599 0.06453363 0.00000000 0.29623908 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075260 0.25020105 21 817322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029758 0.29021281 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023974 0.25514013 23 817332 1 0.11299194 0.05996181 0.00000000 0.27627477 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.094 0.838 4.018 0.061 0.652 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.001 0.116 1.447 6.969 0.062 0.643 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.094 1.303 5.745 0.067 0.518 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.083 1.174 5.497 0.064 0.426 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.093 0.827 4.257 0.071 0.434 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.084 0.431 2.767 0.058 0.603 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.100 1.495 8.410 0.082 0.335 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.069 0.801 4.306 0.055 0.396 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.084 0.115 3.402 0.060 0.488 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.078 0.147 3.060 0.064 0.434 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.107 1.182 6.411 0.073 0.495 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.124 1.192 6.104 0.070 0.609 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.107 0.518 2.976 0.068 0.604 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.098 0.969 4.653 0.062 0.566 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.119 0.781 3.798 0.080 0.557 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.109 1.505 8.549 0.074 0.516 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.100 0.797 3.764 0.078 0.424 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.064 0.795 4.958 0.053 0.452 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.066 1.086 5.288 0.052 0.419 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.001 0.138 1.023 4.604 0.079 0.605 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.164 1.660 6.714 0.093 0.569 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.117 0.692 3.799 0.077 0.594 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.104 0.782 3.583 0.070 0.537 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.101 0.937 4.941 0.068 0.516 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.023 0.409 1.640 0.010 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.100 0.838 4.604 0.068 0.518 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.029 0.406 2.143 0.014 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.064 0.115 2.767 0.052 0.335 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.084 0.781 3.781 0.061 0.434 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.113 1.187 5.924 0.075 0.598 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.001 0.164 1.660 8.549 0.093 0.652 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.067 0.165 3.166 0.061 0.339 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.999 0.081 1.614 9.826 0.062 0.375 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.082 1.081 5.283 0.067 0.390 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.076 1.577 8.182 0.064 0.316 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.078 0.804 4.751 0.071 0.221 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.999 0.063 0.057 2.673 0.058 0.306 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.098 1.526 8.692 0.082 0.307 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.064 0.732 3.826 0.055 0.318 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.999 0.074 0.250 3.255 0.060 0.358 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.068 -0.085 3.611 0.064 0.259 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.999 0.098 1.277 7.551 0.073 0.399 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.999 0.079 0.830 5.171 0.070 0.207 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.999 0.081 0.630 3.655 0.068 0.321 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.999 0.077 0.771 5.856 0.062 0.350 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.999 0.099 0.925 4.856 0.080 0.381 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.083 1.429 7.164 0.074 0.232 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.087 0.953 4.574 0.078 0.257 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.058 0.755 5.021 0.053 0.365 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.060 1.060 5.798 0.052 0.308 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.999 0.091 1.414 6.459 0.079 0.208 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.999 0.119 1.389 5.018 0.093 0.301 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.999 0.096 0.629 3.567 0.077 0.441 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.999 0.081 0.703 4.513 0.071 0.296 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.081 0.891 5.325 0.068 0.315 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.015 0.489 1.894 0.010 0.063 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.999 0.081 0.830 5.018 0.068 0.316 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.018 0.667 2.417 0.014 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.999 0.058 -0.085 2.673 0.052 0.207 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.999 0.071 0.666 3.740 0.061 0.278 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.089 1.333 6.157 0.075 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.119 1.614 9.826 0.093 0.441 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.360 0.123 0.008 -0.402 2.988 0.006 0.722 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.006 SERIES 817242 AND 817322 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.722 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.406 0.561 0.401 0.461 0.434 0.321 0.363 0.385 0.436 SDEV 0.000 0.080 0.191 0.174 0.165 0.193 0.174 0.168 0.204 SERR 0.000 0.046 0.078 0.023 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.658 0.864 0.875 0.935 0.942 0.916 0.929 0.934 0.944 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.999 0.059 1.356 7.332 0.054 0.218 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.220 0.113 -0.059 80 200 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.84 1.00 1.09 1.93 4.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.218 0.073 0.090 -0.006 0.069 -0.011 0.093 -0.059 -0.098 -0.036 PACF 0.218 0.027 0.072 -0.043 0.077 -0.048 0.112 -0.123 -0.057 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.120 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.048 0.218 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.223 0.115 0.089 -0.058 0.092 -0.025 0.109 -0.089 -0.116 -0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.223 2 0.208 0.069 3 0.204 0.058 0.053 4 0.210 0.064 0.073 -0.100 5 0.222 0.055 0.066 -0.126 0.121 6 0.230 0.046 0.070 -0.122 0.135 -0.065 7 0.238 0.028 0.086 -0.131 0.129 -0.097 0.135 8 0.263 0.011 0.109 -0.155 0.144 -0.092 0.178 -0.179 9 0.254 0.019 0.105 -0.148 0.137 -0.086 0.178 -0.166 -0.047 10 0.252 0.012 0.113 -0.152 0.144 -0.093 0.183 -0.165 -0.035 -0.046 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1496.86 1484.55 1485.23 1486.44 1485.61 1483.50 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1484.29 1481.11 1474.04 1475.43 1476.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.223 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.98 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.223 0.050 0.011 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 1 0.136 0.340 2 817221 1 0.162 0.386 3 817222 1 0.175 0.392 4 817231 1 0.127 0.319 5 817232 1 0.093 0.223 6 817241 1 0.109 0.307 7 817242 1 0.096 0.307 8 817251 1 0.106 0.319 9 817252 1 0.149 0.367 10 817261 1 0.097 0.264 11 817262 1 0.187 0.400 12 817271 1 0.062 0.210 13 817272 1 0.125 0.322 14 817281 1 0.135 0.354 15 817282 1 0.167 0.382 16 817301 1 0.088 0.232 17 817302 1 0.071 0.259 18 817311 1 0.157 0.371 19 817312 1 0.119 0.309 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 1 0.054 0.211 21 817322 1 0.098 0.308 22 817331 1 0.223 0.447 23 817332 1 0.090 0.300 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.123 0.319 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.042 0.064 MEDIAN 1 0.119 0.319 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.058 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.054 0.210 LOWER HINGE 1 0.094 0.282 UPPER HINGE 1 0.153 0.369 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.223 0.447 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.063 0.201 3.286 0.073 -0.050 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.074 1.181 9.290 0.076 -0.058 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.075 1.056 5.093 0.083 -0.062 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.072 1.228 7.543 0.074 -0.050 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.076 0.920 5.003 0.080 -0.048 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.060 0.246 2.796 0.069 -0.038 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.093 0.898 6.545 0.096 -0.013 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.061 0.881 5.003 0.065 -0.021 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.069 0.356 3.651 0.073 -0.048 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.066 -0.050 3.807 0.075 -0.044 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.090 1.638 9.199 0.092 -0.070 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.077 0.972 5.363 0.079 -0.031 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.077 0.611 4.202 0.083 -0.050 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.072 0.832 6.409 0.075 -0.041 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.092 1.145 6.251 0.099 -0.061 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.080 1.370 7.391 0.084 -0.044 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.084 0.909 4.498 0.090 -0.016 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.054 0.603 4.445 0.065 -0.053 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.057 0.810 4.625 0.063 -0.049 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.088 1.355 6.578 0.087 -0.020 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.113 1.063 4.041 0.106 0.024 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.085 0.647 3.531 0.096 -0.074 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.077 0.721 4.667 0.082 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.076 0.852 5.357 0.081 -0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.014 0.406 1.776 0.012 0.023 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.076 0.898 5.003 0.080 -0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.017 0.476 2.356 0.015 0.026 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.054 -0.050 2.796 0.063 -0.074 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.067 0.629 4.121 0.074 -0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.085 1.104 6.477 0.089 -0.026 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.113 1.638 9.290 0.106 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.389 0.119 0.007 -0.559 3.181 -0.043 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.043 SERIES 817242 AND 817322 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.475 0.598 0.427 0.499 0.461 0.300 0.359 0.460 0.470 SDEV 0.000 0.056 0.145 0.150 0.175 0.201 0.145 0.134 0.200 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.059 0.020 0.014 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.014 EPS 0.719 0.881 0.886 0.943 0.948 0.908 0.928 0.950 0.951 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.999 0.058 1.294 6.777 0.063 -0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.250 0.118 -0.070 95 185 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.91 1.00 1.10 2.01 7.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.070 -0.005 0.096 -0.053 0.086 -0.072 0.122 -0.077 -0.077 0.023 PACF -0.070 -0.010 0.095 -0.041 0.081 -0.072 0.126 -0.087 -0.061 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 0.091 -0.041 0.078 -0.058 0.113 -0.074 -0.081 0.015 PACF -0.001 -0.003 0.091 -0.041 0.079 -0.068 0.125 -0.099 -0.056 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.999 0.059 1.414 7.484 0.054 0.225 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.224 0.065 0.094 -0.003 0.065 -0.020 0.084 -0.069 -0.090 -0.013 PACF 0.224 0.016 0.080 -0.044 0.074 -0.059 0.111 -0.134 -0.036 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.120 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.051 0.225 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES