RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050t.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050t.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 5.193 0.657 -0.006 2.533 0.099 0.534 2 817221 1815 1988 174 6.268 0.619 -0.093 2.357 0.080 0.488 3 817222 1827 1988 162 6.339 0.666 0.115 3.029 0.086 0.495 4 817231 1791 1988 198 6.795 0.847 -0.161 2.509 0.086 0.646 5 817232 1745 1988 244 6.325 0.757 -0.377 2.812 0.087 0.631 6 817241 1857 1988 132 6.149 0.688 -0.444 3.730 0.109 0.235 7 817242 1860 1988 129 6.378 0.502 0.099 2.567 0.086 0.054 8 817251 1797 1988 192 5.467 0.720 -0.020 2.352 0.128 0.335 9 817252 1795 1988 194 5.220 0.631 -0.047 2.603 0.118 0.291 10 817261 1846 1988 143 5.988 0.734 0.165 2.721 0.117 0.324 11 817262 1791 1988 198 5.907 0.770 0.272 2.839 0.109 0.488 12 817271 1831 1988 158 5.634 0.699 0.175 2.689 0.105 0.465 13 817272 1826 1988 163 5.258 0.614 -0.270 2.808 0.113 0.313 14 817281 1808 1988 181 5.686 0.702 -0.140 2.725 0.119 0.357 15 817282 1808 1988 181 5.837 0.637 -0.078 2.923 0.111 0.254 16 817301 1729 1988 260 5.881 0.791 0.243 3.111 0.104 0.547 17 817302 1709 1987 279 5.650 0.828 0.127 2.348 0.096 0.685 18 817311 1842 1936 95 6.467 0.750 0.315 2.888 0.095 0.493 19 817312 1807 1988 182 6.071 0.589 -0.166 3.011 0.101 0.108 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 6.759 0.669 -0.090 2.584 0.082 0.462 21 817322 1813 1987 175 6.036 0.544 -0.126 3.107 0.071 0.497 22 817331 1855 1987 133 5.364 0.663 -0.522 2.951 0.100 0.506 23 817332 1835 1987 153 5.992 0.600 -0.473 3.008 0.081 0.488 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 5.942 0.682 -0.065 2.792 0.099 0.422 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.463 0.087 0.239 0.314 0.015 0.162 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 5.988 0.669 -0.078 2.808 0.100 0.488 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.654 0.117 0.284 0.404 0.024 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 95 5.193 0.502 -0.522 2.348 0.071 0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 5.642 0.625 -0.163 2.576 0.086 0.319 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 195 6.296 0.742 0.121 2.979 0.110 0.502 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 6.795 0.847 0.315 3.730 0.128 0.685 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.479 0.164 0.010 -0.379 2.460 0.046 0.846 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 817221 AND 817271 158 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.846 SERIES 817231 AND 817232 198 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.510 0.370 0.634 0.549 0.436 0.503 0.638 0.660 0.611 SDEV 0.000 0.108 0.142 0.178 0.223 0.173 0.148 0.113 0.139 SERR 0.000 0.062 0.058 0.024 0.018 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.010 EPS 0.746 0.745 0.948 0.953 0.943 0.959 0.976 0.978 0.972 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 6.125 0.595 0.029 3.042 0.078 0.523 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.308 -0.153 1.544 39 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.15 1.01 1.06 1.20 7.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.521 0.504 0.499 0.469 0.408 0.376 0.393 0.375 0.344 0.328 PACF 0.521 0.318 0.236 0.142 0.031 0.011 0.081 0.061 0.021 0.010 95% C.L. 0.120 0.148 0.171 0.191 0.207 0.218 0.227 0.236 0.245 0.252 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.405 0.240 0.199 0.199 0.156 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00303842 5.48969364 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00365352 5.94813299 3 817222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00370045 6.02238846 4 817231 1 2.20112705 0.01810884 0.00000000 6.19713879 5 817232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00561671 7.01284170 6 817241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029034 6.12970734 7 817242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00139865 6.28518867 8 817251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00595912 6.04166937 9 817252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00257816 5.47100973 10 817261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00537255 5.60100842 11 817262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00650869 6.55423117 12 817271 1 1.34271646 0.02281153 0.00000000 5.27547646 13 817272 1 0.89420485 0.03634376 0.00000000 5.11015701 14 817281 1 1.57289124 0.00404688 0.00000000 4.57328081 15 817282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00269308 6.08158922 16 817301 1 2.03549480 0.01027060 0.00000000 5.17023706 17 817302 1 2.32526159 0.01473870 0.00000000 5.09812689 18 817311 1 1.00149465 0.02174130 0.00000000 6.04844332 19 817312 1 1.25038469 0.13485001 0.00000000 6.02383947 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00549363 6.30342293 21 817322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296471 6.29695177 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01010692 6.04099798 23 817332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00648838 6.46677208 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.123 0.039 2.440 0.098 0.503 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.094 -0.126 2.453 0.079 0.442 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.101 -0.050 3.052 0.085 0.459 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.097 -0.309 2.690 0.086 0.386 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.103 -0.392 2.934 0.086 0.465 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.112 -0.466 3.762 0.108 0.234 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.078 0.038 2.621 0.085 0.045 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.116 -0.217 2.631 0.128 0.151 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.118 -0.060 2.791 0.117 0.245 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.117 0.052 2.453 0.116 0.269 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.113 -0.048 2.636 0.109 0.308 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.109 0.089 3.123 0.104 0.291 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.110 -0.304 2.844 0.112 0.228 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.116 -0.210 3.045 0.119 0.271 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.106 -0.140 2.678 0.110 0.204 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.103 -0.128 2.858 0.104 0.194 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.107 -0.133 2.842 0.096 0.368 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.108 -0.078 2.390 0.094 0.412 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.093 -0.321 2.793 0.100 0.048 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.092 0.220 2.975 0.082 0.385 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.087 -0.047 2.923 0.071 0.445 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.102 -0.207 3.253 0.099 0.249 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.083 -0.427 2.910 0.079 0.253 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.104 -0.140 2.830 0.099 0.298 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.012 0.175 0.307 0.015 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.106 -0.128 2.842 0.099 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.017 0.213 0.321 0.024 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.078 -0.466 2.390 0.071 0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.095 -0.260 2.633 0.085 0.231 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.112 -0.048 2.954 0.109 0.399 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.123 0.220 3.762 0.128 0.503 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.999 0.108 0.081 2.783 0.098 0.358 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.085 -0.277 2.452 0.079 0.327 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.094 -0.289 3.221 0.085 0.379 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.089 -0.275 2.770 0.085 0.280 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.999 0.090 -0.258 3.185 0.086 0.302 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.099 -0.449 4.359 0.108 0.009 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.076 0.006 2.628 0.085 0.011 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.115 -0.254 2.616 0.128 0.129 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.111 -0.272 2.730 0.117 0.154 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.109 -0.087 2.401 0.116 0.183 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.111 -0.095 2.536 0.109 0.279 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.999 0.094 -0.211 2.884 0.104 0.078 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.101 -0.401 2.877 0.112 0.072 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.111 -0.282 2.923 0.118 0.195 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.101 -0.230 2.780 0.110 0.118 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.101 -0.214 2.741 0.104 0.168 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.099 -0.178 3.017 0.096 0.265 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.101 -0.058 2.397 0.094 0.324 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.092 -0.391 2.894 0.100 0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.084 0.309 3.308 0.082 0.272 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.074 -0.334 3.280 0.071 0.265 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.097 -0.333 3.386 0.099 0.166 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.081 -0.416 2.866 0.079 0.212 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.097 -0.213 2.914 0.099 0.198 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.011 0.176 0.424 0.015 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.099 -0.258 2.866 0.099 0.195 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.015 0.174 0.422 0.024 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.999 0.074 -0.449 2.397 0.071 0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.090 -0.311 2.679 0.085 0.124 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.105 -0.136 3.101 0.109 0.279 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.115 0.309 4.359 0.128 0.379 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.578 0.096 0.006 -0.081 2.535 0.334 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.334 SERIES 817221 AND 817321 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 817261 AND 817262 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.324 0.377 0.636 0.578 0.478 0.545 0.684 0.689 0.668 SDEV 0.000 0.162 0.124 0.157 0.199 0.161 0.107 0.096 0.109 SERR 0.000 0.093 0.050 0.021 0.016 0.010 0.007 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.575 0.751 0.948 0.958 0.951 0.965 0.980 0.980 0.978 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 1.001 0.073 -0.466 2.966 0.076 0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.033 0.012 0.044 51 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.42 1.00 1.08 1.50 10.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.144 0.083 0.088 0.061 -0.056 -0.054 -0.016 -0.004 -0.052 -0.106 PACF 0.144 0.064 0.069 0.036 -0.081 -0.051 -0.001 0.014 -0.037 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.065 0.096 0.116 0.064 -0.059 0.017 -0.046 -0.020 -0.010 -0.083 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.065 2 0.059 0.093 3 0.049 0.086 0.106 4 0.044 0.082 0.104 0.044 5 0.048 0.091 0.111 0.048 -0.087 6 0.048 0.091 0.111 0.048 -0.087 0.002 7 0.049 0.087 0.113 0.053 -0.082 0.004 -0.047 8 0.048 0.087 0.113 0.054 -0.082 0.004 -0.047 -0.004 9 0.048 0.088 0.113 0.054 -0.082 0.004 -0.048 -0.004 0.006 10 0.049 0.087 0.109 0.054 -0.089 0.008 -0.039 0.003 0.010 -0.079 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1726.87 1727.69 1727.28 1726.12 1727.57 1727.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1729.46 1730.83 1732.82 1734.81 1735.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.049 0.086 0.106 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.44 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.049 0.089 0.114 0.018 0.020 0.015 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.0009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 3 0.195 0.259 0.184 0.124 2 817221 3 0.220 0.182 0.276 0.145 3 817222 3 0.192 0.278 0.187 0.093 4 817231 3 0.125 0.214 0.122 0.146 5 817232 3 0.145 0.221 0.152 0.139 6 817241 3 0.089 -0.012 0.142 0.142 7 817242 3 0.022 0.009 0.144 0.003 8 817251 3 0.049 0.116 0.029 0.161 9 817252 3 0.035 0.141 0.069 0.029 10 817261 3 0.069 0.143 0.114 0.128 11 817262 3 0.097 0.255 0.028 0.127 12 817271 3 0.025 0.064 0.068 0.112 13 817272 3 0.014 0.073 -0.017 0.093 14 817281 3 0.080 0.146 0.145 0.115 15 817282 3 0.046 0.104 0.172 -0.030 16 817301 3 0.059 0.142 0.064 0.154 17 817302 3 0.110 0.205 0.110 0.151 18 817311 3 0.144 0.321 -0.027 0.129 19 817312 3 0.002 0.016 0.000 0.039 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 3 0.106 0.217 0.173 0.034 21 817322 3 0.109 0.215 0.120 0.100 22 817331 3 0.056 0.131 0.144 0.064 23 817332 3 0.111 0.148 0.192 0.098 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.091 0.156 0.113 0.100 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.060 0.088 0.075 0.053 MEDIAN 3 0.089 0.146 0.122 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.070 0.106 0.096 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.002 -0.012 -0.027 -0.030 LOWER HINGE 3 0.048 0.110 0.066 0.078 UPPER HINGE 3 0.118 0.216 0.162 0.141 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.220 0.321 0.276 0.161 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.097 0.005 3.004 0.110 -0.003 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.076 -0.367 3.230 0.086 -0.016 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.084 -0.435 3.545 0.096 -0.006 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.084 -0.372 2.937 0.096 -0.011 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.084 -0.273 3.022 0.096 -0.007 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.097 -0.367 4.164 0.108 -0.027 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.076 -0.075 2.615 0.085 0.002 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.112 -0.297 2.661 0.134 -0.009 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.109 -0.361 2.756 0.126 0.002 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.106 -0.236 2.352 0.125 -0.004 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.105 -0.289 2.576 0.123 0.003 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.093 -0.270 2.828 0.108 0.004 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.100 -0.429 2.903 0.115 -0.001 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.106 -0.471 3.052 0.128 -0.006 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.099 -0.226 2.886 0.115 0.002 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.098 -0.249 2.991 0.110 0.001 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.093 -0.296 3.113 0.105 -0.001 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.095 0.078 2.352 0.106 0.018 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.092 -0.416 2.940 0.101 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.080 0.072 3.067 0.091 -0.001 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.070 -0.267 3.575 0.078 -0.013 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.094 -0.400 3.347 0.106 0.000 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.077 -0.425 2.995 0.086 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.092 -0.277 2.996 0.106 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.012 0.158 0.403 0.015 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.094 -0.296 2.991 0.106 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.016 0.143 0.299 0.019 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.070 -0.471 2.352 0.078 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.084 -0.386 2.792 0.096 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.100 -0.243 3.090 0.115 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.112 0.078 4.164 0.134 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.620 0.087 0.005 -0.105 2.746 0.375 0.842 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.375 SERIES 817242 AND 817311 77 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.842 SERIES 817261 AND 817262 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.436 0.431 0.654 0.608 0.517 0.574 0.710 0.733 0.709 SDEV 0.000 0.177 0.119 0.150 0.199 0.144 0.082 0.071 0.091 SERR 0.000 0.102 0.049 0.020 0.016 0.009 0.005 0.005 0.006 EPS 0.685 0.791 0.952 0.963 0.958 0.969 0.983 0.984 0.982 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 1.000 0.070 -0.512 3.082 0.080 -0.033 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.003 0.001 0.050 50 230 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.27 1.01 1.03 1.30 5.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.033 -0.042 -0.023 0.048 -0.068 -0.071 -0.014 0.019 -0.035 -0.085 PACF -0.033 -0.044 -0.026 0.044 -0.067 -0.073 -0.023 0.006 -0.034 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 -0.003 0.038 -0.073 -0.074 -0.022 0.007 -0.042 -0.089 PACF 0.001 0.000 -0.003 0.038 -0.073 -0.074 -0.022 0.006 -0.038 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.001 0.000 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 1.000 0.071 -0.454 3.012 0.077 0.064 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.064 0.087 0.096 0.040 -0.062 -0.073 -0.042 -0.024 -0.064 -0.106 PACF 0.064 0.083 0.086 0.023 -0.082 -0.081 -0.030 0.005 -0.038 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES