RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) WIDTH_RING PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.494 0.244 0.400 2.599 0.202 0.878 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.594 0.329 0.128 2.004 0.255 0.823 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.633 0.394 1.337 5.878 0.264 0.759 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.433 0.189 0.540 2.544 0.229 0.765 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.474 0.327 1.023 3.141 0.266 0.893 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.962 0.286 0.983 3.863 0.199 0.613 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.992 0.246 0.755 4.004 0.210 0.388 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.707 0.385 0.937 3.129 0.172 0.878 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.712 0.407 0.803 2.704 0.190 0.897 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.499 0.207 0.623 2.766 0.209 0.734 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.426 0.232 0.404 2.465 0.260 0.784 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.713 0.538 0.603 2.186 0.217 0.907 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.752 0.496 0.405 1.954 0.230 0.893 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.606 0.294 0.212 2.107 0.218 0.840 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.549 0.228 0.801 3.899 0.217 0.763 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.686 0.309 0.130 2.778 0.232 0.805 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.607 0.340 0.749 3.031 0.257 0.835 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.290 -0.081 2.211 0.166 0.734 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.631 0.169 0.232 3.065 0.195 0.572 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.704 0.410 0.443 2.330 0.226 0.881 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.637 0.346 0.434 2.389 0.232 0.798 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.872 0.451 0.242 1.983 0.250 0.809 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.614 0.252 0.552 2.974 0.244 0.713 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 0.665 0.320 0.550 2.870 0.224 0.781 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.165 0.098 0.340 0.889 0.028 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.633 0.309 0.540 2.704 0.226 0.805 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.141 0.144 0.457 0.827 0.042 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.426 0.169 -0.081 1.954 0.166 0.388 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.572 0.245 0.321 2.270 0.205 0.747 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 195 0.713 0.389 0.778 3.097 0.247 0.878 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.538 1.337 5.878 0.266 0.907 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.516 0.256 0.016 -0.628 2.341 -0.120 0.911 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.120 SERIES 817241 AND 817321 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.911 SERIES 817271 AND 817272 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.776 0.693 0.258 0.355 0.338 0.374 0.587 0.416 0.364 SDEV 0.000 0.115 0.315 0.251 0.255 0.259 0.188 0.305 0.319 SERR 0.000 0.067 0.129 0.034 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.020 0.022 EPS 0.907 0.918 0.784 0.902 0.916 0.932 0.970 0.941 0.926 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.676 0.264 0.313 3.611 0.187 0.775 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.262 0.135 0.131 91 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.81 3.03 1.00 1.20 4.23 12.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.772 0.703 0.595 0.549 0.514 0.495 0.518 0.536 0.518 0.499 PACF 0.772 0.266 -0.024 0.081 0.088 0.066 0.162 0.121 -0.015 0.009 95% C.L. 0.120 0.177 0.213 0.236 0.253 0.268 0.281 0.294 0.308 0.320 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.631 0.563 0.274 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097007 0.58999556 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00504210 1.03566670 3 817222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00652532 1.15977657 4 817231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181915 0.61274707 5 817232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086748 0.58065170 6 817241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00195395 0.83233517 7 817242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00102232 0.92295468 8 817251 1 1.39882231 0.01343852 0.00000000 0.20924892 9 817252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00592447 1.28959453 10 817261 1 0.49865058 0.01990767 0.00000000 0.33608681 11 817262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170026 0.59528738 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00856718 1.45490110 14 817281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00358440 0.93181586 15 817282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00176583 0.70964086 16 817301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00293140 1.06623590 17 817302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00317031 1.05065310 18 817311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00464432 1.22292721 19 817312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013455 0.61895210 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00625849 1.22303033 21 817322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00516944 1.09205317 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00736041 1.36547852 23 817332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00242572 0.81862390 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.996 0.484 0.464 2.583 0.202 0.866 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.972 0.350 0.360 2.954 0.254 0.585 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.039 0.424 1.207 4.757 0.258 0.598 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.998 0.348 0.242 2.774 0.228 0.623 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.993 0.657 0.965 3.022 0.264 0.882 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.001 0.290 1.156 5.000 0.198 0.590 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.244 0.602 3.608 0.209 0.362 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.001 0.229 0.240 2.734 0.171 0.546 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.039 0.411 1.866 7.759 0.189 0.762 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.339 0.595 3.287 0.208 0.610 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.999 0.506 0.309 2.142 0.259 0.779 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.975 0.319 0.738 3.525 0.215 0.641 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.072 0.600 1.990 7.834 0.230 0.732 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.998 0.400 0.269 2.300 0.217 0.755 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.997 0.385 0.917 3.980 0.216 0.742 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.982 0.324 0.336 3.206 0.235 0.600 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.999 0.359 0.724 3.416 0.256 0.599 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.272 0.267 2.320 0.164 0.683 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.269 0.255 3.050 0.194 0.567 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.974 0.350 0.223 2.600 0.224 0.709 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.981 0.334 0.771 3.866 0.231 0.584 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.981 0.396 0.656 3.132 0.248 0.714 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.997 0.343 0.262 2.564 0.224 0.658 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.375 0.670 3.583 0.222 0.660 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.023 0.105 0.499 1.512 0.028 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.998 0.350 0.595 3.132 0.224 0.641 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.012 0.084 0.576 1.070 0.036 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.972 0.229 0.223 2.142 0.164 0.362 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.988 0.322 0.268 2.667 0.205 0.594 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.405 0.844 3.737 0.241 0.737 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.072 0.657 1.990 7.834 0.264 0.882 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.999 0.340 0.904 4.568 0.202 0.702 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.993 0.302 0.426 3.430 0.254 0.438 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.995 0.343 0.596 3.341 0.258 0.495 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.990 0.298 0.239 3.218 0.228 0.475 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.009 0.494 2.429 13.963 0.265 0.650 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.998 0.251 0.638 3.977 0.197 0.476 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.999 0.233 0.520 3.489 0.209 0.324 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.998 0.217 0.189 2.646 0.171 0.499 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.992 0.270 0.680 3.329 0.189 0.584 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.996 0.304 0.598 3.777 0.207 0.545 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.967 0.408 0.489 3.470 0.259 0.659 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.997 0.304 0.795 3.980 0.215 0.590 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.976 0.326 0.413 2.917 0.229 0.597 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.981 0.308 0.208 2.651 0.217 0.579 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.987 0.300 0.385 3.037 0.216 0.579 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.998 0.276 0.276 3.376 0.235 0.374 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.994 0.317 0.507 3.057 0.256 0.477 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.992 0.223 0.322 2.491 0.164 0.553 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.998 0.251 0.418 3.830 0.194 0.453 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.995 0.303 -0.023 2.903 0.224 0.582 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.996 0.297 0.625 3.649 0.231 0.467 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.992 0.325 0.594 4.114 0.248 0.506 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.992 0.287 0.407 2.993 0.224 0.482 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 0.993 0.303 0.549 3.835 0.221 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.009 0.060 0.460 2.267 0.028 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.995 0.302 0.489 3.376 0.224 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.006 0.048 0.258 0.789 0.037 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.967 0.217 -0.023 2.491 0.164 0.324 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.992 0.273 0.354 3.015 0.205 0.476 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 0.998 0.321 0.611 3.804 0.241 0.583 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.009 0.494 2.429 13.963 0.265 0.702 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.455 0.128 0.008 0.053 3.035 0.127 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.127 SERIES 817211 AND 817251 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.802 0.491 0.351 0.427 0.393 0.432 0.563 0.500 0.521 SDEV 0.000 0.281 0.260 0.172 0.225 0.168 0.183 0.219 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.162 0.106 0.023 0.018 0.011 0.011 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.919 0.828 0.849 0.926 0.932 0.946 0.967 0.958 0.960 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.980 0.230 0.318 3.125 0.189 0.462 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.306 0.134 0.058 65 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.51 1.00 1.09 1.60 3.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.460 0.339 0.180 0.029 -0.009 -0.040 0.014 0.009 -0.005 -0.011 PACF 0.460 0.161 -0.033 -0.111 -0.010 -0.005 0.072 -0.005 -0.036 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.120 0.143 0.154 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.234 0.386 0.163 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.457 0.409 0.330 0.102 0.131 0.021 0.052 -0.013 -0.017 -0.033 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.457 2 0.342 0.252 3 0.316 0.218 0.101 4 0.335 0.259 0.160 -0.187 5 0.343 0.252 0.149 -0.202 0.044 6 0.346 0.241 0.156 -0.189 0.062 -0.051 7 0.350 0.236 0.172 -0.202 0.042 -0.079 0.081 8 0.356 0.230 0.175 -0.218 0.056 -0.060 0.110 -0.081 9 0.357 0.229 0.176 -0.219 0.059 -0.062 0.107 -0.085 0.010 10 0.358 0.224 0.181 -0.222 0.062 -0.073 0.116 -0.073 0.029 -0.051 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2291.87 2228.30 2211.86 2211.00 2203.00 2204.44 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2205.71 2205.85 2205.99 2207.96 2209.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.335 0.259 0.160 -0.187 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 29.25 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 141.34 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.335 0.371 0.371 0.087 0.122 0.053 -0.006 0.015 -0.011 -.0108 -0.003 -0.008 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 4 0.550 0.629 0.062 0.171 -0.089 2 817221 4 0.308 0.282 0.330 0.156 -0.157 3 817222 4 0.351 0.333 0.301 0.124 -0.101 4 817231 4 0.288 0.354 0.268 0.016 -0.027 5 817232 4 0.566 0.538 0.283 0.133 -0.204 6 817241 4 0.330 0.361 0.288 0.149 -0.260 7 817242 4 0.147 0.290 0.115 0.119 -0.140 8 817251 4 0.280 0.426 0.154 0.065 -0.085 9 817252 4 0.364 0.506 0.186 -0.049 -0.025 10 817261 4 0.372 0.412 0.282 0.106 -0.201 11 817262 4 0.487 0.478 0.269 0.093 -0.107 12 817271 4 0.413 0.431 0.313 0.060 -0.143 13 817272 4 0.432 0.428 0.312 0.060 -0.106 14 817281 4 0.383 0.434 0.227 0.074 -0.055 15 817282 4 0.413 0.397 0.255 0.162 -0.101 16 817301 4 0.199 0.309 0.170 0.124 -0.157 17 817302 4 0.251 0.411 0.111 0.105 -0.083 18 817311 4 0.338 0.550 0.007 0.129 -0.174 19 817312 4 0.231 0.469 0.006 0.044 -0.084 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 4 0.370 0.472 0.146 0.129 -0.086 21 817322 4 0.264 0.381 0.148 0.103 -0.053 22 817331 4 0.340 0.491 0.025 0.282 -0.235 23 817332 4 0.291 0.405 0.136 0.188 -0.169 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.346 0.426 0.191 0.111 -0.123 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 0.086 0.104 0.066 0.064 MEDIAN 4 0.340 0.426 0.186 0.119 -0.106 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.114 0.104 0.157 0.072 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.147 0.282 0.006 -0.049 -0.260 LOWER HINGE 4 0.284 0.371 0.126 0.069 -0.163 UPPER HINGE 4 0.398 0.475 0.283 0.141 -0.085 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.566 0.629 0.330 0.282 -0.025 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.228 0.186 3.347 0.254 0.029 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.252 0.263 3.251 0.279 0.011 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.277 0.272 3.191 0.297 0.002 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.250 0.520 3.688 0.266 -0.004 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.311 0.815 6.000 0.332 -0.059 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.205 0.601 4.074 0.226 0.010 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.215 0.775 4.496 0.230 -0.007 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.184 0.180 2.875 0.208 0.002 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.215 0.570 4.023 0.238 -0.002 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.242 0.758 5.139 0.250 -0.016 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.294 0.583 5.730 0.301 0.011 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.232 0.669 3.346 0.255 -0.004 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.247 0.451 3.716 0.268 0.015 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.243 0.702 4.064 0.255 0.002 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.229 0.531 3.213 0.256 -0.010 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.248 0.172 4.208 0.260 0.015 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.274 0.633 3.627 0.296 0.001 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.182 0.421 3.400 0.186 0.008 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.219 0.199 4.252 0.231 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.240 -0.107 3.157 0.274 0.001 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.257 0.364 3.810 0.275 -0.004 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.262 0.594 4.296 0.287 -0.014 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.241 0.373 3.651 0.260 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.241 0.458 3.937 0.260 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.031 0.237 0.802 0.032 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.242 0.520 3.716 0.260 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.031 0.350 0.883 0.033 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.182 -0.107 2.875 0.186 -0.059 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.224 0.267 3.347 0.244 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.254 0.617 4.230 0.277 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.311 0.815 6.000 0.332 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.511 0.103 0.006 0.152 3.144 0.279 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.279 SERIES 817312 AND 817322 175 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 817221 AND 817222 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.761 0.569 0.409 0.488 0.494 0.556 0.589 0.578 0.524 SDEV 0.000 0.227 0.226 0.128 0.183 0.122 0.107 0.097 0.124 SERR 0.000 0.131 0.092 0.017 0.015 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.009 EPS 0.900 0.868 0.878 0.941 0.954 0.966 0.971 0.969 0.960 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.994 0.197 0.365 3.541 0.220 -0.014 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.258 0.108 0.035 71 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.34 1.01 1.07 1.41 175.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 0.029 -0.057 -0.038 -0.064 -0.075 0.057 0.025 -0.024 -0.016 PACF -0.014 0.029 -0.056 -0.041 -0.062 -0.079 0.054 0.023 -0.040 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.007 0.000 0.005 -0.064 -0.080 0.054 0.027 -0.026 -0.028 PACF -0.003 -0.007 0.000 0.005 -0.064 -0.080 0.053 0.027 -0.025 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.004 -0.003 -0.007 0.000 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.995 0.231 0.306 3.168 0.191 0.449 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.448 0.389 0.286 0.071 0.027 -0.039 -0.005 -0.025 -0.032 -0.033 PACF 0.448 0.235 0.063 -0.179 -0.050 -0.027 0.087 -0.007 -0.032 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.120 0.141 0.156 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.249 0.342 0.237 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.52 MINUTES