RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana050x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana050x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 817 1 Mountain Lake (PLA) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCGL - 817 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1709 1988 - 817 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 817211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 817221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 817222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 817231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 817242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 817301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 817332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.566 0.078 -0.134 2.511 0.106 0.562 2 817221 1815 1988 174 0.679 0.069 -0.032 2.434 0.086 0.439 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.694 0.076 0.003 3.059 0.090 0.503 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.736 0.099 -0.342 2.536 0.092 0.645 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.682 0.091 -0.378 2.690 0.089 0.681 6 817241 1857 1988 132 0.683 0.078 -0.353 3.488 0.110 0.238 7 817242 1860 1988 129 0.713 0.058 0.079 2.604 0.087 0.067 8 817251 1797 1988 192 0.602 0.087 -0.002 2.296 0.133 0.394 9 817252 1795 1988 194 0.572 0.076 -0.073 2.440 0.126 0.329 10 817261 1846 1988 143 0.652 0.085 0.125 2.692 0.126 0.303 11 817262 1791 1988 198 0.641 0.091 0.142 2.641 0.117 0.507 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.614 0.086 0.124 2.568 0.109 0.529 13 817272 1826 1988 163 0.575 0.074 -0.269 2.823 0.118 0.364 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.626 0.087 -0.183 2.690 0.129 0.408 15 817282 1808 1988 181 0.637 0.075 -0.060 2.896 0.116 0.288 16 817301 1729 1988 260 0.666 0.100 0.112 2.754 0.107 0.600 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.625 0.105 0.145 2.115 0.099 0.750 18 817311 1842 1936 95 0.715 0.084 0.282 2.628 0.100 0.468 19 817312 1807 1988 182 0.664 0.068 -0.112 2.713 0.107 0.086 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 0.743 0.074 -0.176 2.510 0.088 0.401 21 817322 1813 1987 175 0.660 0.069 -0.182 3.068 0.076 0.567 22 817331 1855 1987 133 0.605 0.090 -0.395 2.746 0.110 0.589 23 817332 1835 1987 153 0.662 0.072 -0.497 2.986 0.086 0.500 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1709 TO 1988 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 0.653 0.081 -0.095 2.691 0.105 0.444 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.050 0.012 0.209 0.286 0.016 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.660 0.078 -0.073 2.690 0.107 0.468 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.062 0.015 0.321 0.265 0.027 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.566 0.058 -0.497 2.115 0.076 0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.620 0.074 -0.226 2.523 0.089 0.346 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 195 0.682 0.089 0.095 2.788 0.117 0.564 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 0.743 0.105 0.282 3.488 0.133 0.750 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.495 0.161 0.010 -0.276 2.408 0.128 0.864 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.128 SERIES 817221 AND 817271 158 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.864 SERIES 817231 AND 817232 198 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.548 0.355 0.636 0.562 0.453 0.516 0.647 0.660 0.614 SDEV 0.000 0.092 0.166 0.171 0.221 0.172 0.163 0.125 0.139 SERR 0.000 0.053 0.068 0.023 0.018 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.773 0.733 0.948 0.956 0.946 0.961 0.977 0.978 0.972 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 0.679 0.074 -0.003 2.912 0.080 0.596 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.358 -0.149 0.171 38 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.17 1.00 1.04 1.21 4.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 175. 40. 95. 156. 196. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.594 0.553 0.563 0.524 0.459 0.450 0.461 0.443 0.411 0.389 PACF 0.594 0.309 0.261 0.132 0.013 0.046 0.095 0.068 0.016 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.120 0.156 0.182 0.205 0.224 0.237 0.249 0.261 0.271 0.280 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.470 0.289 0.173 0.219 0.144 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036402 0.60182440 2 817221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021377 0.66365290 3 817222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022323 0.67443353 4 817231 1 0.24826941 0.01481577 0.00000000 0.65560257 5 817232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069487 0.76663834 6 817241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009653 0.67615658 7 817242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024135 0.69694000 8 817251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081807 0.68066263 9 817252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043751 0.61466748 10 817261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051085 0.61510682 11 817262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074211 0.71459776 12 817271 1 0.18077059 0.01896095 0.00000000 0.55771393 13 817272 1 0.11970878 0.02655860 0.00000000 0.54828846 14 817281 1 0.43939769 0.00165333 0.00000000 0.24664348 15 817282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032216 0.66672009 16 817301 1 0.35027477 0.00448169 0.00000000 0.45936874 17 817302 1 0.30183148 0.01144267 0.00000000 0.53448713 18 817311 1 0.09877397 0.02536559 0.00000000 0.67842829 19 817312 1 0.12596193 0.16264021 0.00000000 0.66036701 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044431 0.70578861 21 817322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045047 0.69964141 22 817331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158277 0.71093303 23 817332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077922 0.71960175 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.134 -0.031 2.462 0.105 0.531 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.102 -0.043 2.527 0.085 0.455 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.109 -0.060 3.045 0.088 0.494 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.107 -0.423 2.884 0.092 0.412 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.113 -0.456 3.003 0.089 0.517 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.115 -0.406 3.574 0.109 0.237 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.080 0.002 2.634 0.086 0.049 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.122 -0.210 2.599 0.132 0.164 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.126 -0.132 2.620 0.125 0.243 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.126 0.022 2.423 0.125 0.267 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.124 -0.129 2.598 0.117 0.348 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.118 0.138 3.423 0.109 0.326 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.118 -0.378 2.828 0.117 0.245 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.129 -0.225 3.044 0.129 0.305 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.115 -0.110 2.639 0.115 0.238 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.110 -0.157 2.968 0.107 0.219 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.118 -0.141 2.748 0.099 0.434 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.111 -0.013 2.262 0.098 0.400 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.100 -0.220 2.668 0.106 0.055 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.095 0.010 2.664 0.087 0.363 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.098 -0.066 2.882 0.076 0.501 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.112 -0.171 3.073 0.109 0.244 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.090 -0.486 2.845 0.085 0.260 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.112 -0.160 2.801 0.104 0.318 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.013 0.170 0.309 0.016 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.113 -0.132 2.748 0.106 0.305 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.016 0.185 0.376 0.027 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.080 -0.486 2.262 0.076 0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.105 -0.222 2.610 0.088 0.240 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.120 -0.037 2.986 0.116 0.423 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.134 0.138 3.574 0.132 0.531 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 817211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 817221 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 817222 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 817231 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 817232 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 817241 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 817242 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 817251 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 817252 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 817261 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 817262 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 817271 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 817272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 817281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 817282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 817301 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 817302 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 817311 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 817312 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 817321 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 817322 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 817331 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 817332 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 0.999 0.117 0.031 2.821 0.105 0.383 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.092 -0.228 2.416 0.085 0.330 3 817222 1827 1988 162 0.999 0.101 -0.298 3.196 0.088 0.417 4 817231 1791 1988 198 0.999 0.098 -0.377 2.925 0.092 0.298 5 817232 1745 1988 244 0.999 0.097 -0.318 3.422 0.089 0.332 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.102 -0.543 4.032 0.109 0.031 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.078 -0.041 2.651 0.086 0.017 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.120 -0.253 2.587 0.132 0.139 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.118 -0.354 2.591 0.125 0.142 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.119 -0.082 2.404 0.125 0.191 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.122 -0.162 2.526 0.117 0.318 12 817271 1831 1988 158 0.999 0.100 -0.214 3.144 0.108 0.082 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.109 -0.427 2.935 0.117 0.098 14 817281 1808 1988 181 0.999 0.122 -0.292 2.966 0.128 0.215 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.107 -0.264 2.708 0.115 0.114 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.108 -0.216 2.915 0.107 0.199 17 817302 1709 1987 279 0.999 0.107 -0.220 2.957 0.099 0.317 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.104 -0.019 2.353 0.099 0.311 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.098 -0.264 2.760 0.106 0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.087 0.181 2.957 0.087 0.236 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.079 -0.494 3.306 0.076 0.268 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.104 -0.269 3.171 0.109 0.123 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.087 -0.407 2.816 0.085 0.214 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.103 -0.240 2.894 0.104 0.208 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.013 0.170 0.381 0.016 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.104 -0.264 2.915 0.106 0.214 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.016 0.148 0.434 0.027 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.999 0.078 -0.543 2.353 0.076 0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.999 0.097 -0.336 2.621 0.088 0.118 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.113 -0.188 3.055 0.116 0.314 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.122 0.181 4.032 0.132 0.417 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.591 0.095 0.006 -0.089 2.593 0.346 0.825 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.346 SERIES 817211 AND 817332 147 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.825 SERIES 817241 AND 817261 132 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.368 0.371 0.648 0.595 0.493 0.562 0.695 0.698 0.671 SDEV 0.000 0.179 0.125 0.148 0.197 0.155 0.117 0.101 0.108 SERR 0.000 0.103 0.051 0.020 0.016 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.621 0.746 0.951 0.961 0.954 0.967 0.981 0.981 0.978 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 1.001 0.078 -0.468 2.988 0.080 0.165 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.019 0.007 0.052 56 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.54 1.00 1.07 1.60 6.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.164 0.086 0.104 0.043 -0.071 -0.045 -0.003 0.007 -0.044 -0.104 PACF 0.164 0.061 0.083 0.010 -0.095 -0.034 0.015 0.027 -0.038 -0.105 95% C.L. 0.120 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.165 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.075 0.089 0.136 0.064 -0.056 0.029 -0.036 -0.016 -0.009 -0.085 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.075 2 0.069 0.084 3 0.059 0.075 0.125 4 0.053 0.072 0.123 0.041 5 0.057 0.083 0.129 0.046 -0.086 6 0.058 0.082 0.128 0.045 -0.087 0.012 7 0.059 0.078 0.129 0.050 -0.083 0.015 -0.042 8 0.059 0.078 0.130 0.050 -0.083 0.015 -0.042 0.001 9 0.059 0.078 0.130 0.050 -0.083 0.015 -0.042 0.001 0.001 10 0.059 0.078 0.126 0.051 -0.090 0.019 -0.032 0.008 0.006 -0.083 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1770.06 1770.47 1770.50 1768.06 1769.59 1769.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1771.47 1772.97 1774.97 1776.97 1777.04 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.059 0.075 0.125 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.90 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.059 0.078 0.134 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0012 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 817211 3 0.209 0.286 0.175 0.113 2 817221 3 0.232 0.164 0.265 0.204 3 817222 3 0.229 0.296 0.183 0.126 4 817231 3 0.141 0.221 0.138 0.150 5 817232 3 0.164 0.248 0.145 0.136 6 817241 3 0.082 0.006 0.139 0.147 7 817242 3 0.009 0.013 0.092 0.023 8 817251 3 0.046 0.122 0.045 0.141 9 817252 3 0.033 0.134 0.043 0.032 10 817261 3 0.078 0.145 0.107 0.160 11 817262 3 0.132 0.286 0.018 0.169 12 817271 3 0.035 0.064 0.068 0.147 13 817272 3 0.022 0.094 0.007 0.108 14 817281 3 0.093 0.163 0.123 0.141 15 817282 3 0.043 0.096 0.164 -0.001 16 817301 3 0.076 0.167 0.064 0.168 17 817302 3 0.144 0.243 0.114 0.157 18 817311 3 0.134 0.310 -0.030 0.127 19 817312 3 0.004 0.023 -0.040 0.044 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 817321 3 0.084 0.190 0.163 0.035 21 817322 3 0.108 0.233 0.079 0.099 22 817331 3 0.052 0.087 0.149 0.109 23 817332 3 0.109 0.146 0.203 0.097 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.098 0.163 0.105 0.114 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.067 0.092 0.076 0.054 MEDIAN 3 0.084 0.163 0.114 0.127 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.093 0.143 0.101 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.004 0.006 -0.040 -0.001 LOWER HINGE 3 0.044 0.095 0.054 0.098 UPPER HINGE 3 0.138 0.238 0.156 0.148 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.232 0.310 0.265 0.204 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 817211 1784 1981 198 1.000 0.104 -0.028 2.944 0.119 -0.001 2 817221 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.081 -0.256 3.073 0.092 -0.013 3 817222 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.089 -0.471 3.583 0.101 -0.005 4 817231 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.091 -0.501 3.051 0.102 -0.012 5 817232 1745 1988 244 1.000 0.089 -0.266 3.277 0.100 -0.010 6 817241 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.100 -0.496 3.837 0.111 -0.026 7 817242 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.078 -0.083 2.615 0.087 0.001 8 817251 1797 1988 192 1.000 0.118 -0.303 2.668 0.139 -0.007 9 817252 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.117 -0.407 2.635 0.134 0.003 10 817261 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.114 -0.243 2.342 0.134 -0.001 11 817262 1791 1988 198 1.000 0.113 -0.405 2.744 0.132 0.003 12 817271 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.098 -0.258 3.103 0.112 -0.002 13 817272 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.108 -0.484 3.026 0.122 0.001 14 817281 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.116 -0.510 3.187 0.139 -0.010 15 817282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.105 -0.288 2.841 0.120 0.000 16 817301 1729 1988 260 1.000 0.104 -0.238 3.222 0.115 0.005 17 817302 1709 1987 279 1.000 0.099 -0.327 3.164 0.109 0.001 18 817311 1842 1936 95 1.000 0.098 0.141 2.377 0.110 0.019 19 817312 1807 1988 182 1.000 0.097 -0.277 2.809 0.107 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 817321 1824 1988 165 1.000 0.083 -0.018 2.922 0.097 -0.001 21 817322 1813 1987 175 1.000 0.075 -0.410 3.651 0.085 -0.015 22 817331 1855 1987 133 1.000 0.101 -0.337 3.099 0.115 0.002 23 817332 1835 1987 153 1.000 0.083 -0.442 2.956 0.091 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 178 1.000 0.098 -0.300 3.005 0.112 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.013 0.172 0.371 0.016 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.099 -0.303 3.026 0.111 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.018 0.177 0.399 0.021 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.075 -0.510 2.342 0.085 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 1.000 0.089 -0.426 2.776 0.100 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.106 -0.250 3.175 0.121 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.118 0.141 3.837 0.139 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.636 0.085 0.005 -0.154 2.763 0.399 0.839 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.399 SERIES 817311 AND 817322 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.839 SERIES 817261 AND 817262 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 3. 6. 55. 153. 253. 253. 231. 210. RBAR 0.473 0.430 0.663 0.622 0.528 0.592 0.725 0.750 0.718 SDEV 0.000 0.159 0.108 0.145 0.204 0.143 0.083 0.068 0.086 SERR 0.000 0.092 0.044 0.020 0.017 0.009 0.005 0.004 0.006 EPS 0.717 0.790 0.954 0.965 0.960 0.971 0.984 0.985 0.982 NSS 2.8 5.0 10.4 16.8 21.3 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 1.000 0.075 -0.561 3.183 0.085 -0.029 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.016 -0.006 0.057 47 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.36 1.00 1.05 1.41 6.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.029 -0.049 -0.021 0.027 -0.085 -0.061 0.002 0.020 -0.023 -0.079 PACF -0.029 -0.050 -0.024 0.023 -0.086 -0.065 -0.010 0.009 -0.022 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 0.017 -0.089 -0.064 -0.007 0.010 -0.028 -0.083 PACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 0.017 -0.090 -0.064 -0.007 0.008 -0.026 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1709 1988 280 1.000 0.076 -0.478 3.095 0.081 0.071 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.070 0.073 0.112 0.023 -0.077 -0.061 -0.028 -0.021 -0.048 -0.100 PACF 0.070 0.068 0.104 0.005 -0.095 -0.066 -0.013 0.010 -0.028 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES