RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana065w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana065w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 834 1 Eastmain River (feucht) WIDTH_RING PCMA - 834 2 Canada Black Spruce 450 5202-7751 1795 1988 - 834 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 834082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 834102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1951 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 834141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 834162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 834011 1877 1988 112 0.749 0.184 0.305 3.672 0.145 0.677 2 834012 1888 1988 101 0.635 0.126 -0.107 2.491 0.150 0.572 3 834021 1851 1962 112 0.766 0.240 1.004 3.828 0.151 0.771 4 834022 1851 1988 138 0.735 0.344 0.462 2.822 0.181 0.869 5 834031 1838 1988 151 0.607 0.266 0.383 2.523 0.190 0.848 6 834032 1848 1988 141 0.541 0.302 0.731 3.411 0.190 0.894 7 834061 1865 1988 124 0.537 0.214 1.545 8.639 0.241 0.469 8 834062 1916 1988 73 0.433 0.107 0.268 2.599 0.169 0.636 9 834081 1877 1988 112 0.548 0.195 0.727 2.794 0.183 0.791 10 834082 1862 1979 118 0.596 0.221 0.537 3.471 0.197 0.732 11 834091 1857 1988 132 0.520 0.141 1.814 8.851 0.162 0.538 12 834092 1862 1988 127 0.593 0.229 1.389 4.940 0.152 0.858 13 834101 1908 1988 81 0.943 0.283 0.313 2.639 0.152 0.818 14 834102 1908 1988 81 0.912 0.285 0.006 2.613 0.165 0.804 15 834111 1866 1988 123 0.801 0.286 0.342 2.939 0.143 0.857 16 834112 1864 1988 125 0.579 0.293 0.314 2.234 0.137 0.942 17 834131 1834 1974 141 0.530 0.212 3.308 22.672 0.154 0.520 18 834132 1815 1988 174 0.366 0.094 0.905 5.333 0.161 0.687 19 834141 1860 1988 129 0.500 0.167 -0.342 2.574 0.144 0.828 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 834142 1882 1988 107 0.482 0.124 0.020 2.539 0.146 0.723 21 834161 1821 1988 168 0.409 0.187 1.151 4.933 0.155 0.877 22 834162 1795 1988 194 0.323 0.123 0.508 2.464 0.154 0.865 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1795 TO 1988 194 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 125 0.596 0.210 0.708 4.590 0.165 0.753 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.164 0.072 0.794 4.441 0.024 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 0.563 0.213 0.485 2.881 0.154 0.797 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.235 0.141 0.699 2.360 0.031 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 73 0.323 0.094 -0.342 2.234 0.137 0.469 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.500 0.141 0.305 2.574 0.150 0.677 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 141 0.735 0.283 1.004 4.933 0.181 0.858 MAXIMUM VALUE 193 0.943 0.344 3.308 22.672 0.241 0.942 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.244 0.348 0.023 -0.469 2.425 -0.693 0.834 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.693 SERIES 834092 AND 834141 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.834 SERIES 834022 AND 834112 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.89 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 15. 105. 171. 210. RBAR 0.547 0.404 0.189 0.268 0.255 SDEV 0.248 0.364 0.279 0.331 0.306 SERR 0.143 0.094 0.027 0.025 0.021 EPS 0.904 0.909 0.818 0.887 0.882 NSS 7.8 14.8 19.4 21.4 21.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1988 194 0.475 0.169 0.008 2.200 0.122 0.920 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.817 0.516 -0.066 49 145 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.41 1.01 1.15 1.56 2.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 124. 29. 73. 112. 141. 194. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.915 0.860 0.821 0.788 0.778 0.763 0.740 0.717 0.711 0.701 PACF 0.915 0.143 0.094 0.065 0.158 0.042 -0.011 0.001 0.116 0.019 95% C.L. 0.144 0.235 0.293 0.337 0.373 0.405 0.434 0.459 0.482 0.503 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.851 0.759 0.069 0.111 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 834011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034437 0.76829636 2 834012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00094351 0.58702970 3 834021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223755 0.89276063 4 834022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00602241 1.15399241 5 834031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00167741 0.47993377 6 834032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00269374 0.73203546 7 834061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00149199 0.44336349 8 834062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234481 0.34598175 9 834081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00316957 0.72666991 10 834082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00252622 0.74589360 11 834091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051632 0.55410826 12 834092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00337973 0.37621674 13 834101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00637760 1.20481479 14 834102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00901764 1.28862572 15 834111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00399447 1.04855120 16 834112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00651932 0.98951739 17 834131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203318 0.67485207 18 834132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044348 0.32682812 19 834141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00164185 0.60921395 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 834142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055536 0.51185858 21 834161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111474 0.31508982 22 834162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00104651 0.22188129 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 834011 1877 1988 112 1.000 0.244 0.229 3.622 0.143 0.667 2 834012 1888 1988 101 1.000 0.195 0.060 2.584 0.148 0.541 3 834021 1851 1962 112 0.999 0.290 1.054 4.601 0.150 0.742 4 834022 1851 1988 138 0.983 0.312 0.641 3.334 0.180 0.754 5 834031 1838 1988 151 0.996 0.420 0.339 2.319 0.189 0.828 6 834032 1848 1988 141 0.985 0.515 1.035 4.771 0.189 0.876 7 834061 1865 1988 124 1.001 0.421 2.681 15.651 0.239 0.387 8 834062 1916 1988 73 0.999 0.216 0.266 2.418 0.167 0.497 9 834081 1877 1988 112 0.999 0.287 0.414 2.825 0.182 0.684 10 834082 1862 1979 118 0.996 0.353 0.951 3.879 0.201 0.676 11 834091 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.265 1.609 7.855 0.161 0.526 12 834092 1862 1988 127 1.009 0.335 0.910 3.753 0.151 0.782 13 834101 1908 1988 81 0.997 0.250 0.489 3.152 0.150 0.724 14 834102 1908 1988 81 0.996 0.210 0.266 3.165 0.162 0.533 15 834111 1866 1988 123 0.995 0.309 0.708 4.336 0.142 0.801 16 834112 1864 1988 125 0.989 0.268 -0.101 2.594 0.135 0.798 17 834131 1834 1974 141 0.998 0.334 2.374 13.565 0.153 0.548 18 834132 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.254 1.293 7.254 0.160 0.660 19 834141 1860 1988 129 0.997 0.316 -0.378 2.267 0.143 0.823 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 834142 1882 1988 107 1.000 0.251 -0.093 2.663 0.144 0.705 21 834161 1821 1988 168 0.997 0.435 1.143 4.717 0.154 0.860 22 834162 1795 1988 194 0.998 0.325 0.389 2.509 0.152 0.831 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 0.997 0.309 0.740 4.720 0.163 0.693 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.005 0.081 0.762 3.537 0.024 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 0.998 0.300 0.565 3.478 0.153 0.714 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.004 0.084 0.788 2.124 0.032 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 73 0.983 0.195 -0.378 2.267 0.135 0.387 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.996 0.251 0.266 2.594 0.148 0.548 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.335 1.054 4.717 0.180 0.801 MAXIMUM VALUE 194 1.009 0.515 2.681 15.651 0.239 0.876 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 834011 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 834012 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 834021 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 834022 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 834031 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 834032 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 834061 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 834062 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 834081 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 834082 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 834091 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 834092 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 834101 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 834102 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 834111 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 834112 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 834131 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 834132 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 834141 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 834142 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 834161 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 834162 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 834011 1877 1988 112 0.998 0.219 0.986 6.020 0.144 0.573 2 834012 1888 1988 101 1.000 0.192 0.003 2.368 0.148 0.518 3 834021 1851 1962 112 0.998 0.229 0.608 3.622 0.149 0.603 4 834022 1851 1988 138 0.997 0.256 0.485 3.102 0.181 0.577 5 834031 1838 1988 151 0.989 0.308 0.694 2.793 0.188 0.666 6 834032 1848 1988 141 0.988 0.296 0.900 4.570 0.189 0.617 7 834061 1865 1988 124 0.991 0.346 2.189 13.049 0.239 0.275 8 834062 1916 1988 73 0.998 0.166 0.444 2.832 0.165 0.189 9 834081 1877 1988 112 0.996 0.259 0.453 3.176 0.182 0.598 10 834082 1862 1979 118 0.995 0.277 1.012 4.040 0.201 0.532 11 834091 1857 1988 132 0.999 0.257 1.738 9.047 0.161 0.493 12 834092 1862 1988 127 0.996 0.229 1.066 4.639 0.150 0.575 13 834101 1908 1988 81 0.997 0.209 0.517 3.072 0.149 0.614 14 834102 1908 1988 81 0.998 0.182 0.288 3.089 0.162 0.380 15 834111 1866 1988 123 0.995 0.237 0.775 4.553 0.142 0.696 16 834112 1864 1988 125 0.990 0.198 -0.032 2.724 0.134 0.651 17 834131 1834 1974 141 0.995 0.301 3.315 23.042 0.152 0.411 18 834132 1815 1988 174 0.999 0.244 1.122 6.551 0.160 0.636 19 834141 1860 1988 129 0.993 0.207 1.156 6.402 0.144 0.477 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 834142 1882 1988 107 0.995 0.160 0.521 3.635 0.144 0.385 21 834161 1821 1988 168 0.982 0.290 0.754 3.781 0.155 0.732 22 834162 1795 1988 194 0.990 0.257 0.609 3.358 0.152 0.730 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 0.994 0.242 0.891 5.430 0.163 0.542 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.004 0.049 0.741 4.646 0.025 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 0.996 0.240 0.724 3.708 0.154 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.006 0.071 0.581 2.931 0.033 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 73 0.982 0.160 -0.032 2.368 0.134 0.189 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.991 0.207 0.485 3.089 0.148 0.477 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 141 0.998 0.277 1.066 6.020 0.181 0.636 MAXIMUM VALUE 194 1.000 0.346 3.315 23.042 0.239 0.732 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.263 0.158 0.010 -0.081 2.850 -0.189 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.189 SERIES 834092 AND 834131 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 834021 AND 834022 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.89 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 15. 105. 171. 210. RBAR 0.563 0.285 0.228 0.274 0.292 SDEV 0.238 0.257 0.227 0.216 0.217 SERR 0.137 0.066 0.022 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.910 0.855 0.852 0.890 0.900 NSS 7.8 14.8 19.4 21.4 21.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1988 194 0.982 0.181 0.957 5.135 0.119 0.672 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.110 0.056 0.114 55 139 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.75 1.01 1.08 1.82 9.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.669 0.460 0.306 0.164 0.105 0.092 0.007 -0.072 -0.113 -0.132 PACF 0.669 0.023 -0.019 -0.071 0.040 0.050 -0.125 -0.087 -0.020 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.144 0.198 0.219 0.227 0.230 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.233 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.449 0.670 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.538 0.253 0.039 -0.062 -0.080 -0.028 -0.094 -0.195 -0.194 -0.152 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.538 2 0.565 -0.051 3 0.560 0.011 -0.109 4 0.555 0.011 -0.086 -0.040 5 0.555 0.011 -0.086 -0.037 -0.005 6 0.555 0.012 -0.082 -0.038 -0.030 0.047 7 0.562 0.008 -0.088 -0.049 -0.029 0.125 -0.142 8 0.540 0.028 -0.092 -0.057 -0.042 0.127 -0.054 -0.155 9 0.539 0.027 -0.091 -0.057 -0.043 0.126 -0.054 -0.152 -0.005 10 0.539 0.026 -0.092 -0.056 -0.043 0.126 -0.055 -0.152 -0.002 -0.007 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1307.59 1243.31 1244.81 1244.51 1246.20 1248.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1249.77 1247.85 1245.13 1247.13 1249.12 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.538 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 28.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 140.73 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.538 0.289 0.156 0.084 0.045 0.024 0.013 0.007 0.004 0.0020 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 834011 1 0.383 0.588 2 834012 1 0.273 0.522 3 834021 1 0.416 0.627 4 834022 1 0.358 0.592 5 834031 1 0.466 0.682 6 834032 1 0.406 0.629 7 834061 1 0.087 0.276 8 834062 1 0.152 0.189 9 834081 1 0.370 0.600 10 834082 1 0.292 0.533 11 834091 1 0.277 0.499 12 834092 1 0.343 0.575 13 834101 1 0.400 0.615 14 834102 1 0.146 0.382 15 834111 1 0.502 0.696 16 834112 1 0.433 0.658 17 834131 1 0.260 0.510 18 834132 1 0.408 0.638 19 834141 1 0.243 0.493 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 834142 1 0.173 0.389 21 834161 1 0.537 0.733 22 834162 1 0.537 0.733 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.339 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.128 0.141 MEDIAN 1 0.364 0.590 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.155 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.087 0.189 LOWER HINGE 1 0.260 0.499 UPPER HINGE 1 0.416 0.638 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.537 0.733 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 834011 1877 1988 112 1.000 0.176 1.284 8.026 0.176 0.129 2 834012 1888 1988 101 1.000 0.163 0.153 2.574 0.182 -0.002 3 834021 1851 1962 112 1.000 0.176 0.405 4.298 0.180 0.103 4 834022 1851 1988 138 1.000 0.205 0.462 3.277 0.211 0.059 5 834031 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.223 -0.114 3.550 0.243 0.019 6 834032 1848 1988 141 1.000 0.228 0.822 3.706 0.250 -0.091 7 834061 1865 1988 124 1.001 0.329 2.023 13.237 0.282 -0.014 8 834062 1916 1988 73 1.000 0.163 0.221 2.788 0.176 0.064 9 834081 1877 1988 112 1.000 0.207 0.065 3.395 0.225 0.072 10 834082 1862 1979 118 1.000 0.235 1.220 5.679 0.246 -0.057 11 834091 1857 1988 132 1.000 0.222 2.988 20.327 0.194 0.093 12 834092 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.188 1.429 6.700 0.181 0.078 13 834101 1908 1988 81 1.000 0.165 0.437 3.029 0.177 0.112 14 834102 1908 1988 81 1.000 0.168 0.175 3.101 0.197 -0.009 15 834111 1866 1988 123 1.000 0.170 0.721 6.203 0.172 0.126 16 834112 1864 1988 125 1.000 0.149 0.221 2.935 0.168 0.011 17 834131 1834 1974 141 1.001 0.243 1.980 19.104 0.205 -0.106 18 834132 1815 1988 174 1.000 0.187 0.290 4.205 0.215 -0.014 19 834141 1860 1988 129 1.000 0.178 2.051 13.643 0.177 -0.023 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 834142 1882 1988 107 1.000 0.147 0.544 3.465 0.171 -0.065 21 834161 1821 1988 168 1.000 0.197 0.978 6.578 0.199 -0.018 22 834162 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.175 0.256 3.384 0.202 -0.031 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.000 0.195 0.846 6.509 0.201 0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.041 0.814 5.258 0.031 0.070 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.183 0.503 3.955 0.195 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.054 1.063 3.423 0.037 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 73 1.000 0.147 -0.114 2.574 0.168 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.168 0.221 3.277 0.177 -0.023 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.222 1.284 6.700 0.215 0.078 MAXIMUM VALUE 194 1.001 0.329 2.988 20.327 0.282 0.129 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.277 0.127 0.008 0.205 2.794 -0.002 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.002 SERIES 834092 AND 834131 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 834021 AND 834022 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.89 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 15. 105. 171. 210. RBAR 0.382 0.275 0.252 0.321 0.327 SDEV 0.179 0.183 0.176 0.141 0.142 SERR 0.103 0.047 0.017 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.829 0.849 0.867 0.910 0.914 NSS 7.8 14.8 19.4 21.4 21.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1988 194 0.988 0.131 -0.023 3.303 0.149 0.008 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.136 0.071 0.061 55 139 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 0.89 1.01 1.12 2.01 11.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 0.049 0.030 -0.101 0.016 0.094 0.005 -0.051 -0.034 0.043 PACF 0.008 0.049 0.029 -0.105 0.014 0.105 0.008 -0.076 -0.037 0.075 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.049 0.030 -0.102 0.016 0.094 0.005 -0.051 -0.034 0.044 PACF 0.000 0.049 0.030 -0.104 0.013 0.105 0.009 -0.076 -0.038 0.076 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1988 194 0.988 0.157 0.529 3.425 0.119 0.557 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.554 0.328 0.170 0.041 0.059 0.082 0.016 -0.051 -0.073 -0.081 PACF 0.554 0.031 -0.033 -0.070 0.096 0.050 -0.090 -0.080 0.001 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.144 0.182 0.194 0.197 0.197 0.198 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.199 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.308 0.555 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES