RUN: CANA2 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana071e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana071e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 838 1 Coats River (trocken) WIDTH_EARLY PCMA - 838 2 Canada Black Spruce 1000 5544-7609 1786 1988 - 838 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 838211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 838221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 838222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 838292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 67 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 838301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 838312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1901 1908 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 838341 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1852 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 0.187 0.088 0.704 2.862 0.237 0.795 2 838212 1849 1988 140 0.137 0.067 1.608 8.824 0.270 0.664 3 838221 1798 1988 191 0.193 0.119 2.060 7.664 0.218 0.837 4 838222 1800 1988 189 0.231 0.104 1.992 7.350 0.183 0.834 5 838231 1790 1988 199 0.227 0.176 2.056 6.710 0.197 0.916 6 838232 1790 1988 199 0.156 0.117 2.563 9.809 0.267 0.838 7 838241 1795 1988 194 0.171 0.052 0.472 3.957 0.197 0.566 8 838242 1819 1985 167 0.188 0.080 0.550 3.473 0.219 0.819 9 838251 1801 1988 188 0.264 0.109 1.067 3.850 0.199 0.787 10 838252 1799 1952 154 0.240 0.150 1.025 3.745 0.222 0.876 11 838261 1819 1987 169 0.278 0.071 0.064 3.549 0.176 0.576 12 838262 1807 1980 174 0.148 0.075 1.411 5.071 0.270 0.678 13 838271 1885 1988 104 0.370 0.152 0.533 2.970 0.174 0.831 14 838272 1891 1988 98 0.304 0.067 1.036 5.051 0.159 0.559 15 838281 1806 1987 182 0.227 0.221 3.164 12.930 0.225 0.888 16 838282 1808 1988 181 0.191 0.121 2.722 12.200 0.244 0.863 17 838291 1806 1988 183 0.261 0.138 0.917 3.005 0.220 0.846 18 838292 1803 1982 180 0.158 0.108 1.590 4.822 0.264 0.857 19 838301 1814 1988 175 0.199 0.103 0.757 3.216 0.260 0.814 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 0.243 0.130 0.754 2.827 0.199 0.872 21 838311 1822 1988 167 0.298 0.086 0.597 3.654 0.180 0.746 22 838312 1830 1988 159 0.180 0.114 1.668 5.390 0.238 0.869 23 838321 1849 1988 140 0.239 0.103 0.426 2.616 0.203 0.839 24 838322 1821 1960 140 0.193 0.053 0.705 3.619 0.201 0.510 25 838341 1839 1988 150 0.324 0.080 0.596 3.334 0.169 0.619 26 838342 1849 1988 140 0.179 0.058 0.506 2.772 0.220 0.614 27 838351 1799 1988 190 0.160 0.042 0.003 3.513 0.183 0.639 28 838352 1798 1988 191 0.164 0.072 0.975 3.841 0.196 0.843 29 838361 1799 1988 190 0.167 0.065 1.128 4.153 0.186 0.783 30 838362 1786 1987 202 0.173 0.091 2.171 10.220 0.217 0.652 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1786 TO 1988 203 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 165 0.215 0.100 1.194 5.233 0.213 0.761 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.058 0.040 0.803 2.902 0.032 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 0.193 0.097 1.000 3.845 0.210 0.816 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.072 0.048 1.072 3.376 0.051 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.137 0.042 0.003 2.616 0.159 0.510 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 145 0.171 0.071 0.596 3.334 0.186 0.652 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 0.243 0.119 1.668 6.710 0.237 0.846 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 0.370 0.221 3.164 12.930 0.270 0.916 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.235 0.334 0.016 -0.169 2.256 -0.600 0.874 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.600 SERIES 838321 AND 838352 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.874 SERIES 838231 AND 838281 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.385 0.211 0.180 0.257 0.202 SDEV 0.276 0.271 0.326 0.236 0.286 SERR 0.022 0.016 0.017 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.939 0.881 0.865 0.912 0.883 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.215 0.085 1.992 7.094 0.140 0.845 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.718 0.374 0.017 102 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.62 1.00 1.08 1.69 6.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 176. 36. 98. 154. 190. 202. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.841 0.765 0.699 0.668 0.665 0.646 0.680 0.645 0.611 0.557 PACF 0.841 0.195 0.060 0.124 0.158 0.043 0.232 -0.072 -0.035 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.140 0.218 0.266 0.300 0.328 0.353 0.376 0.399 0.420 0.437 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.723 0.677 0.197 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 838211 1 0.20942858 0.02994853 0.00000000 0.14774267 2 838212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010159 0.12955190 3 838221 1 0.44406056 0.03861316 0.00000000 0.13225150 4 838222 1 0.39514717 0.03832756 0.00000000 0.17717463 5 838231 1 0.59402949 0.02378744 0.00000000 0.10372570 6 838232 1 0.41909805 0.03456681 0.00000000 0.09576210 7 838241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017250 0.18779820 8 838242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092482 0.26540941 9 838251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139581 0.39637217 10 838252 1 0.55308425 0.01454039 0.00000000 0.02067962 11 838261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015218 0.29110101 12 838262 1 0.20882320 0.03783020 0.00000000 0.11650219 13 838271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00339934 0.19191934 14 838272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078139 0.26519883 15 838281 1 1.19118226 0.07128899 0.00000000 0.13834932 16 838282 1 0.71137124 0.11119658 0.00000000 0.15719189 17 838291 1 0.36398438 0.09245532 0.00000000 0.24039543 18 838292 1 0.34525731 0.03518104 0.00000000 0.07658684 19 838301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171037 0.34571254 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 838302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218243 0.41326183 21 838311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095762 0.21776351 22 838312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165592 0.04576220 23 838321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162837 0.12441418 24 838322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037342 0.21896917 25 838341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082807 0.26170895 26 838342 1 0.13304377 0.01871638 0.00000000 0.13221934 27 838351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012463 0.14857143 28 838352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081216 0.24194600 29 838361 1 0.19196622 0.01777579 0.00000000 0.11243570 30 838362 1 0.23962393 0.02773360 0.00000000 0.13129105 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 0.999 0.392 0.669 3.484 0.237 0.738 2 838212 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.499 1.856 10.697 0.268 0.643 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.316 1.051 4.813 0.213 0.628 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.226 0.131 2.569 0.181 0.504 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.001 0.327 0.378 2.768 0.195 0.701 6 838232 1790 1988 199 0.999 0.370 1.631 7.688 0.267 0.551 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.305 0.662 4.152 0.196 0.579 8 838242 1819 1985 167 0.992 0.349 0.530 3.283 0.218 0.697 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.003 0.272 0.536 3.341 0.198 0.549 10 838252 1799 1952 154 1.000 0.286 0.664 3.953 0.222 0.532 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.259 0.207 3.644 0.175 0.580 12 838262 1807 1980 174 0.999 0.402 1.461 7.057 0.269 0.600 13 838271 1885 1988 104 1.000 0.314 1.134 6.137 0.173 0.690 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.205 1.156 6.166 0.158 0.487 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.321 0.341 3.216 0.224 0.658 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.001 0.370 0.077 2.525 0.242 0.732 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.502 1.097 3.806 0.220 0.837 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.002 0.299 -0.053 2.320 0.259 0.472 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.017 0.299 0.764 4.007 0.256 0.240 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 0.998 0.330 0.379 2.815 0.199 0.711 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.241 0.260 3.000 0.179 0.609 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.057 0.517 1.993 9.856 0.240 0.679 23 838321 1849 1988 140 0.991 0.311 0.285 3.001 0.202 0.678 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.256 0.584 3.700 0.200 0.437 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.211 0.323 2.652 0.164 0.510 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.272 0.563 3.681 0.219 0.426 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.263 0.121 3.247 0.182 0.629 28 838352 1798 1988 191 0.997 0.312 0.654 3.790 0.196 0.697 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.252 0.662 4.448 0.186 0.578 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.447 4.216 33.073 0.216 0.453 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.002 0.324 0.811 5.296 0.212 0.594 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.011 0.083 0.829 5.643 0.032 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.311 0.619 3.691 0.208 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.001 0.107 0.774 1.812 0.051 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.991 0.205 -0.053 2.320 0.158 0.240 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.263 0.323 3.001 0.186 0.510 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.370 1.097 4.813 0.237 0.690 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.057 0.517 4.216 33.073 0.269 0.837 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 838211 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 838212 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 838221 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 838222 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 838231 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 838232 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 838241 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 838242 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 838251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 838252 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 838261 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 838262 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 838271 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 838272 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 838281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 838282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 838291 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 838292 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 838301 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 838302 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 838311 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 838312 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 838321 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 838322 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 838341 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 838342 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 838351 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 838352 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 838361 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 838362 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 0.990 0.337 0.349 3.091 0.237 0.659 2 838212 1849 1988 140 0.990 0.357 0.592 3.717 0.269 0.558 3 838221 1798 1988 191 0.998 0.278 0.555 3.767 0.213 0.538 4 838222 1800 1988 189 0.999 0.220 0.123 2.559 0.181 0.483 5 838231 1790 1988 199 0.996 0.300 0.366 2.891 0.195 0.647 6 838232 1790 1988 199 0.998 0.348 1.393 6.153 0.267 0.506 7 838241 1795 1988 194 0.994 0.280 0.695 4.574 0.196 0.499 8 838242 1819 1985 167 0.992 0.296 0.674 4.097 0.219 0.560 9 838251 1801 1988 188 0.999 0.267 0.649 3.675 0.198 0.538 10 838252 1799 1952 154 0.997 0.263 0.436 3.450 0.222 0.457 11 838261 1819 1987 169 0.995 0.203 0.261 3.685 0.175 0.351 12 838262 1807 1980 174 0.991 0.348 1.126 5.931 0.270 0.513 13 838271 1885 1988 104 0.990 0.252 1.819 9.913 0.173 0.556 14 838272 1891 1988 98 0.998 0.182 0.858 5.011 0.158 0.396 15 838281 1806 1987 182 0.996 0.307 0.263 3.139 0.224 0.631 16 838282 1808 1988 181 0.996 0.311 -0.022 2.634 0.242 0.617 17 838291 1806 1988 183 0.983 0.391 0.651 2.909 0.220 0.745 18 838292 1803 1982 180 0.998 0.271 -0.090 2.607 0.259 0.349 19 838301 1814 1988 175 0.999 0.267 0.377 3.644 0.256 0.201 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 0.988 0.277 0.238 3.193 0.198 0.619 21 838311 1822 1988 167 0.998 0.231 0.239 3.066 0.179 0.577 22 838312 1830 1988 159 0.996 0.342 0.571 3.366 0.240 0.589 23 838321 1849 1988 140 0.992 0.242 0.330 5.344 0.202 0.484 24 838322 1821 1960 140 0.998 0.236 0.421 3.594 0.200 0.335 25 838341 1839 1988 150 0.998 0.197 0.311 2.707 0.164 0.452 26 838342 1849 1988 140 0.998 0.265 0.647 3.950 0.219 0.394 27 838351 1799 1988 190 0.997 0.250 0.218 3.675 0.182 0.585 28 838352 1798 1988 191 0.995 0.277 0.504 3.803 0.195 0.594 29 838361 1799 1988 190 0.997 0.233 0.492 4.241 0.186 0.517 30 838362 1786 1987 202 0.995 0.414 4.263 34.251 0.217 0.408 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.995 0.281 0.644 4.955 0.212 0.512 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.004 0.056 0.787 5.720 0.032 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.996 0.274 0.464 3.675 0.208 0.527 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.006 0.068 0.388 1.150 0.051 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.983 0.182 -0.090 2.559 0.158 0.201 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.992 0.242 0.263 3.091 0.186 0.452 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 0.998 0.311 0.651 4.241 0.237 0.589 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 0.999 0.414 4.263 34.251 0.270 0.745 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.240 0.137 0.007 0.015 3.561 -0.160 0.762 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.160 SERIES 838242 AND 838282 167 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.762 SERIES 838311 AND 838341 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.329 0.230 0.203 0.268 0.242 SDEV 0.198 0.228 0.222 0.217 0.215 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.923 0.892 0.881 0.916 0.905 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.983 0.166 0.126 3.150 0.149 0.378 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.377 0.146 0.083 80 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.42 1.00 1.07 1.49 10.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.377 0.181 0.004 -0.076 -0.116 -0.040 0.034 0.036 -0.020 -0.030 PACF 0.377 0.045 -0.091 -0.068 -0.061 0.046 0.059 -0.010 -0.069 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.140 0.159 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.146 0.380 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.381 0.179 0.054 -0.010 -0.090 0.010 -0.007 -0.044 -0.022 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.381 2 0.366 0.039 3 0.368 0.050 -0.031 4 0.367 0.052 -0.019 -0.032 5 0.364 0.050 -0.015 -0.001 -0.086 6 0.372 0.050 -0.014 -0.005 -0.119 0.091 7 0.374 0.048 -0.014 -0.006 -0.118 0.099 -0.023 8 0.372 0.053 -0.020 -0.006 -0.118 0.102 -0.002 -0.055 9 0.373 0.053 -0.021 -0.005 -0.118 0.102 -0.003 -0.059 0.011 10 0.373 0.052 -0.021 -0.002 -0.121 0.102 -0.003 -0.057 0.020 -0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1619.13 1589.26 1590.95 1592.75 1594.54 1595.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1595.36 1597.25 1598.65 1600.62 1602.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.381 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 117.00 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.381 0.145 0.055 0.021 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 838211 1 0.453 0.663 2 838212 1 0.343 0.586 3 838221 1 0.291 0.539 4 838222 1 0.237 0.484 5 838231 1 0.434 0.651 6 838232 1 0.259 0.508 7 838241 1 0.321 0.501 8 838242 1 0.326 0.567 9 838251 1 0.303 0.542 10 838252 1 0.214 0.462 11 838261 1 0.134 0.357 12 838262 1 0.265 0.514 13 838271 1 0.325 0.560 14 838272 1 0.168 0.400 15 838281 1 0.409 0.635 16 838282 1 0.386 0.620 17 838291 1 0.555 0.745 18 838292 1 0.135 0.351 19 838301 1 0.061 0.201 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 838302 1 0.404 0.621 21 838311 1 0.352 0.578 22 838312 1 0.378 0.607 23 838321 1 0.246 0.484 24 838322 1 0.183 0.336 25 838341 1 0.257 0.461 26 838342 1 0.201 0.398 27 838351 1 0.357 0.595 28 838352 1 0.354 0.595 29 838361 1 0.284 0.522 30 838362 1 0.264 0.409 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.297 0.516 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.106 0.117 MEDIAN 1 0.297 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.120 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.061 0.201 LOWER HINGE 1 0.237 0.461 UPPER HINGE 1 0.357 0.595 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.555 0.745 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 1.000 0.252 0.107 3.186 0.298 -0.095 2 838212 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.285 0.358 3.299 0.333 -0.024 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.235 0.565 3.593 0.268 -0.020 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.193 0.297 2.460 0.223 -0.028 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.228 0.581 4.401 0.256 -0.087 6 838232 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.300 1.011 4.781 0.336 -0.017 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.242 1.292 9.334 0.246 -0.151 8 838242 1819 1985 167 1.000 0.243 0.042 3.981 0.288 -0.042 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.000 0.224 0.786 4.566 0.252 -0.063 10 838252 1799 1952 154 1.000 0.233 -0.163 3.548 0.269 -0.013 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.190 0.250 3.717 0.204 0.035 12 838262 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.298 1.081 8.768 0.330 -0.018 13 838271 1885 1988 104 1.000 0.209 1.790 10.724 0.227 -0.068 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.167 0.790 4.251 0.188 -0.034 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.237 0.065 3.679 0.283 -0.060 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.244 -0.154 2.542 0.298 -0.033 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.261 0.451 3.712 0.301 0.010 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.253 -0.284 2.912 0.297 -0.042 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.000 0.262 0.373 4.151 0.283 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 1.000 0.217 0.369 4.400 0.261 -0.107 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.188 0.380 3.667 0.228 -0.091 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.269 0.488 3.521 0.309 -0.089 23 838321 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.212 0.576 6.241 0.243 -0.053 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.222 0.852 4.962 0.242 -0.093 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.174 0.337 3.114 0.204 -0.111 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.243 0.804 4.661 0.270 -0.086 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.200 0.260 5.057 0.238 -0.043 28 838352 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.222 0.293 3.546 0.240 -0.005 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.199 0.115 3.291 0.244 -0.068 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.377 6.268 65.070 0.268 -0.140 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.236 0.666 6.504 0.264 -0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.043 1.148 11.228 0.038 0.043 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.234 0.376 3.849 0.265 -0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.045 0.541 1.260 0.058 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.167 -0.284 2.460 0.188 -0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.209 0.250 3.521 0.240 -0.089 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.253 0.790 4.781 0.297 -0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.377 6.268 65.070 0.336 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.301 0.104 0.005 0.139 3.723 -0.013 0.703 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.013 SERIES 838322 AND 838362 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.703 SERIES 838271 AND 838272 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.345 0.300 0.332 0.308 0.285 SDEV 0.147 0.148 0.156 0.168 0.141 SERR 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.928 0.922 0.935 0.930 0.922 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.992 0.147 -0.035 3.593 0.183 -0.133 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.308 0.104 0.075 75 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.39 1.00 1.06 1.45 14.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.133 0.025 -0.056 -0.027 -0.106 0.004 0.052 0.023 -0.043 0.045 PACF -0.133 0.007 -0.053 -0.042 -0.116 -0.029 0.048 0.024 -0.050 0.025 95% C.L. 0.140 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.134 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.059 -0.049 -0.113 -0.003 0.057 0.024 -0.037 0.023 PACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.059 -0.049 -0.114 -0.008 0.051 0.009 -0.049 0.015 95% C.L. 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.144 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.993 0.157 0.093 3.117 0.142 0.368 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.366 0.107 -0.042 -0.091 -0.126 -0.031 0.038 0.015 -0.045 -0.047 PACF 0.366 -0.032 -0.082 -0.053 -0.077 0.051 0.040 -0.037 -0.065 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.140 0.158 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.138 0.370 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES