RUN: CANA2 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana071i.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana071i.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 838 1 Coats River (trocken) DENSITY_EARLY PCMA - 838 2 Canada Black Spruce 1000 5544-7609 1786 1988 - 838 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 838211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 838221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 838222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 838292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 67 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 838301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 838312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1901 1908 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 4.510 0.304 1.221 4.805 0.039 0.660 2 838212 1849 1988 140 4.781 0.498 1.216 4.745 0.039 0.873 3 838221 1798 1988 191 4.729 0.285 0.313 3.311 0.041 0.627 4 838222 1800 1988 189 4.744 0.324 -0.542 3.533 0.041 0.717 5 838231 1790 1988 199 4.778 0.298 0.086 4.617 0.041 0.667 6 838232 1790 1988 199 4.964 0.347 0.338 3.349 0.051 0.573 7 838241 1795 1988 194 4.702 0.292 0.167 3.609 0.044 0.579 8 838242 1819 1985 167 4.788 0.304 0.316 3.400 0.041 0.630 9 838251 1801 1988 188 4.456 0.226 -0.099 2.931 0.033 0.645 10 838252 1799 1952 154 4.682 0.455 0.649 3.091 0.048 0.808 11 838261 1819 1987 169 4.399 0.216 0.243 3.200 0.039 0.513 12 838262 1807 1980 174 4.625 0.258 1.925 12.422 0.050 0.274 13 838271 1885 1988 104 4.265 0.389 -0.045 1.975 0.036 0.877 14 838272 1891 1988 98 4.293 0.302 -0.074 2.768 0.031 0.849 15 838281 1806 1987 182 4.400 0.272 0.002 2.835 0.039 0.703 16 838282 1808 1988 181 4.394 0.249 -0.063 2.851 0.043 0.575 17 838291 1806 1988 183 4.293 0.348 1.054 5.941 0.047 0.699 18 838292 1803 1982 180 4.232 0.297 -0.046 3.737 0.046 0.648 19 838301 1814 1988 175 4.811 0.379 1.150 5.722 0.051 0.572 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 4.613 0.328 0.123 2.725 0.042 0.710 21 838311 1822 1988 167 4.217 0.390 0.055 2.885 0.040 0.840 22 838312 1830 1988 159 4.861 0.282 1.498 8.388 0.042 0.475 23 838321 1849 1988 140 4.911 0.278 0.757 4.730 0.038 0.586 24 838322 1821 1960 140 4.198 0.261 0.048 3.028 0.048 0.514 25 838341 1839 1988 150 4.083 0.399 0.193 2.463 0.036 0.889 26 838342 1849 1988 140 4.177 0.241 0.817 4.057 0.052 0.376 27 838351 1799 1988 190 4.747 0.322 1.075 4.714 0.038 0.703 28 838352 1798 1988 191 4.696 0.267 0.156 3.374 0.037 0.632 29 838361 1799 1988 190 4.671 0.359 1.253 5.210 0.054 0.559 30 838362 1786 1987 202 4.701 0.500 0.967 3.809 0.054 0.735 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1786 TO 1988 203 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 4.557 0.322 0.492 4.141 0.043 0.650 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.251 0.073 0.594 2.031 0.006 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 4.648 0.303 0.278 3.466 0.041 0.646 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.455 0.087 1.006 1.798 0.009 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 98 4.083 0.216 -0.542 1.975 0.031 0.274 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 4.293 0.272 0.048 2.931 0.039 0.573 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 4.747 0.359 1.054 4.730 0.048 0.717 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 4.964 0.500 1.925 12.422 0.054 0.889 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.207 0.254 0.012 -0.481 3.460 -0.670 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.670 SERIES 838302 AND 838341 143 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 838311 AND 838341 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.295 0.254 0.204 0.225 0.174 SDEV 0.292 0.257 0.255 0.216 0.259 SERR 0.024 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.911 0.903 0.882 0.897 0.862 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 4.587 0.226 2.951 19.606 0.029 0.625 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.453 -0.214 1.338 72 131 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.32 1.00 1.06 1.38 2.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 176. 36. 98. 154. 190. 202. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.622 0.503 0.429 0.284 0.240 0.251 0.201 0.175 0.207 0.191 PACF 0.622 0.189 0.097 -0.095 0.035 0.112 0.000 -0.009 0.084 0.035 95% C.L. 0.140 0.187 0.212 0.229 0.235 0.240 0.245 0.248 0.251 0.254 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.483 0.440 0.164 0.183 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 838211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136920 4.39302683 2 838212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00255702 4.96091270 3 838221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00115424 4.60042620 4 838222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402610 4.35392570 5 838231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084902 4.69298744 6 838232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013074 4.97684336 7 838241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00135758 4.56923389 8 838242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023895 4.80815601 9 838251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112936 4.34928608 10 838252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00810891 4.05318308 11 838261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239834 4.60285282 12 838262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000445 4.62492990 13 838271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00886280 4.73048925 14 838272 1 2.33592725 0.00460417 0.00000000 2.41695714 15 838281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005839 4.39427233 16 838282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00189523 4.56633329 17 838291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00129722 4.17327881 18 838292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069074 4.22444630 19 838301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00494911 4.38993645 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 838302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00471048 4.24529219 21 838311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00617846 4.73587704 22 838312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092554 4.94032955 23 838321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00189893 4.77683973 24 838322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070099 4.24691963 25 838341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00801145 4.68766451 26 838342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043465 4.20771456 27 838351 1 0.90583628 0.01487871 0.00000000 4.44794989 28 838352 1 0.64584446 0.01735470 0.00000000 4.50973892 29 838361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091766 4.75884724 30 838362 1 1.38069355 0.02025777 0.00000000 4.37243462 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 1.000 0.066 1.447 5.666 0.039 0.633 2 838212 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.102 1.519 5.319 0.039 0.860 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.061 0.101 2.847 0.041 0.637 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.051 -0.318 3.676 0.040 0.492 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.061 0.096 4.456 0.041 0.652 6 838232 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.070 0.347 3.361 0.051 0.570 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.060 0.032 3.560 0.044 0.540 8 838242 1819 1985 167 1.000 0.063 0.372 3.452 0.041 0.625 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.000 0.049 -0.002 2.854 0.033 0.611 10 838252 1799 1952 154 1.000 0.059 0.690 3.322 0.048 0.466 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.041 0.521 3.733 0.038 0.308 12 838262 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.056 1.925 12.427 0.049 0.273 13 838271 1885 1988 104 1.000 0.067 0.435 2.788 0.036 0.754 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.042 0.137 3.032 0.030 0.560 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.062 -0.007 2.829 0.038 0.699 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.052 0.112 2.965 0.043 0.491 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.079 1.035 5.905 0.047 0.679 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.066 0.018 3.507 0.046 0.607 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.000 0.059 0.807 4.661 0.052 0.272 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 1.000 0.055 0.248 2.723 0.042 0.514 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.059 0.606 3.750 0.040 0.585 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.057 1.674 9.462 0.043 0.531 23 838321 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.054 0.525 4.312 0.038 0.551 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.062 0.001 2.854 0.047 0.511 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.047 0.331 3.082 0.036 0.494 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.058 0.911 4.255 0.052 0.372 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.046 -0.085 3.162 0.038 0.434 28 838352 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.045 -0.030 3.381 0.037 0.412 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.076 1.266 5.241 0.053 0.546 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.077 1.338 6.739 0.054 0.523 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.060 0.535 4.311 0.043 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.013 0.600 2.118 0.006 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.059 0.359 3.534 0.041 0.543 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.013 0.880 1.629 0.009 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.041 -0.318 2.723 0.030 0.272 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.052 0.032 3.032 0.038 0.491 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.066 0.911 4.661 0.047 0.625 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.102 1.925 12.427 0.054 0.860 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 838211 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 838212 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 838221 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 838222 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 838231 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 838232 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 838241 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 838242 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 838251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 838252 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 838261 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 838262 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 838271 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 838272 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 838281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 838282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 838291 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 838292 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 838301 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 838302 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 838311 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 838312 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 838321 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 838322 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 838341 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 838342 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 838351 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 838352 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 838361 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 838362 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 1.000 0.061 0.998 4.435 0.039 0.592 2 838212 1849 1988 140 0.999 0.072 1.210 4.702 0.038 0.730 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.048 0.166 3.146 0.041 0.429 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.045 -0.222 3.837 0.040 0.343 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.053 -0.187 4.709 0.041 0.524 6 838232 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.059 0.455 3.090 0.051 0.415 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.048 0.248 4.041 0.044 0.279 8 838242 1819 1985 167 1.000 0.058 0.273 3.549 0.041 0.556 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.000 0.041 -0.259 3.090 0.033 0.425 10 838252 1799 1952 154 1.000 0.052 0.471 3.293 0.047 0.342 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.041 0.507 3.646 0.038 0.295 12 838262 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.052 1.888 12.557 0.049 0.184 13 838271 1885 1988 104 0.999 0.050 0.406 3.821 0.036 0.576 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.037 0.129 3.089 0.030 0.448 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.048 0.511 3.921 0.039 0.475 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.046 0.173 2.844 0.043 0.352 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.070 1.193 5.980 0.047 0.584 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.049 0.132 4.329 0.047 0.293 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.000 0.055 0.574 4.250 0.052 0.185 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 1.000 0.048 0.195 2.925 0.042 0.367 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.053 0.836 4.362 0.040 0.478 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.056 1.639 9.495 0.043 0.516 23 838321 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.052 0.633 4.161 0.038 0.513 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.052 0.148 3.166 0.047 0.324 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.044 0.314 3.115 0.036 0.416 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.052 0.722 3.826 0.052 0.237 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.044 0.112 3.392 0.038 0.369 28 838352 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.044 0.089 3.502 0.037 0.389 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.068 1.292 5.853 0.053 0.433 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.072 1.232 6.508 0.054 0.458 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.052 0.529 4.421 0.043 0.418 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.009 0.542 2.051 0.006 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.052 0.430 3.831 0.041 0.421 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.010 0.688 1.269 0.009 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.999 0.037 -0.259 2.844 0.030 0.184 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.046 0.148 3.166 0.038 0.342 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.056 0.836 4.435 0.047 0.513 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.072 1.888 12.557 0.054 0.730 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.224 0.144 0.007 -0.352 3.291 -0.328 0.567 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.328 SERIES 838252 AND 838271 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.567 SERIES 838222 AND 838291 183 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.347 0.250 0.207 0.223 0.174 SDEV 0.232 0.206 0.201 0.209 0.213 SERR 0.019 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.929 0.902 0.883 0.896 0.862 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.998 0.028 -0.388 3.259 0.029 0.229 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.162 0.073 -0.031 98 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.57 1.00 1.12 1.69 5.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.89 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.228 0.195 0.157 0.074 0.053 0.071 0.004 -0.006 0.034 0.002 PACF 0.228 0.151 0.091 -0.001 0.001 0.041 -0.032 -0.024 0.034 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.140 0.147 0.152 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.084 0.195 0.154 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.267 0.167 0.154 0.077 0.062 0.126 0.005 -0.006 0.064 -0.028 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.267 2 0.240 0.103 3 0.230 0.080 0.094 4 0.230 0.080 0.093 0.004 5 0.230 0.078 0.092 0.000 0.017 6 0.228 0.078 0.083 -0.007 -0.005 0.095 7 0.234 0.078 0.082 -0.002 0.000 0.110 -0.065 8 0.232 0.081 0.082 -0.002 0.002 0.112 -0.059 -0.026 9 0.234 0.084 0.076 -0.002 0.003 0.107 -0.064 -0.040 0.060 10 0.237 0.082 0.072 0.004 0.003 0.107 -0.060 -0.035 0.074 -0.057 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 925.27 912.24 912.08 912.29 914.28 916.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 916.37 917.51 919.38 920.63 921.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.240 0.103 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.12 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.83 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.240 0.160 0.063 0.032 0.014 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 838211 2 0.372 0.550 0.090 2 838212 2 0.559 0.626 0.151 3 838221 2 0.204 0.375 0.132 4 838222 2 0.147 0.294 0.145 5 838231 2 0.323 0.424 0.195 6 838232 2 0.193 0.351 0.156 7 838241 2 0.096 0.250 0.115 8 838242 2 0.379 0.474 0.159 9 838251 2 0.245 0.355 0.172 10 838252 2 0.175 0.299 0.142 11 838261 2 0.092 0.280 0.052 12 838262 2 0.042 0.177 0.043 13 838271 2 0.342 0.520 0.101 14 838272 2 0.271 0.329 0.278 15 838281 2 0.289 0.408 0.166 16 838282 2 0.186 0.323 0.101 17 838291 2 0.372 0.473 0.191 18 838292 2 0.106 0.261 0.111 19 838301 2 0.068 0.152 0.183 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 838302 2 0.193 0.276 0.254 21 838311 2 0.251 0.445 0.098 22 838312 2 0.311 0.398 0.231 23 838321 2 0.271 0.473 0.083 24 838322 2 0.213 0.226 0.320 25 838341 2 0.210 0.384 0.101 26 838342 2 0.068 0.218 0.084 27 838351 2 0.145 0.349 0.066 28 838352 2 0.190 0.365 0.079 29 838361 2 0.240 0.330 0.242 30 838362 2 0.232 0.440 0.041 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.226 0.361 0.143 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.111 0.071 MEDIAN 2 0.212 0.353 0.137 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.160 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.042 0.152 0.041 LOWER HINGE 2 0.147 0.280 0.090 UPPER HINGE 2 0.289 0.440 0.183 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.559 0.626 0.320 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 1.000 0.048 0.173 4.856 0.051 -0.018 2 838212 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.048 0.290 4.460 0.054 -0.005 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.043 0.057 2.839 0.048 -0.010 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.042 -0.237 4.290 0.047 -0.015 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.044 -0.365 5.422 0.050 -0.034 6 838232 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.053 0.320 3.300 0.060 0.002 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.046 0.109 4.301 0.050 -0.008 8 838242 1819 1985 167 1.000 0.047 0.180 4.186 0.051 -0.034 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.000 0.036 -0.157 3.163 0.040 -0.035 10 838252 1799 1952 154 1.000 0.048 0.360 3.080 0.056 -0.034 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.039 0.511 3.915 0.044 -0.003 12 838262 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.051 1.799 12.423 0.054 0.004 13 838271 1885 1988 104 1.000 0.041 0.219 2.815 0.045 -0.003 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.032 0.203 3.085 0.034 -0.006 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.041 0.416 3.846 0.046 -0.014 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.042 0.233 3.152 0.049 -0.020 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.055 0.654 5.262 0.058 -0.018 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.046 0.104 3.827 0.052 -0.011 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.000 0.053 0.678 4.945 0.056 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 1.000 0.043 0.029 3.183 0.048 -0.008 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.046 0.944 4.891 0.049 0.012 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.046 1.046 6.849 0.051 0.015 23 838321 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.044 0.531 3.976 0.047 0.002 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.046 -0.286 3.457 0.053 -0.043 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.039 0.353 3.398 0.043 -0.017 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.050 0.614 3.485 0.057 -0.005 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.040 0.125 3.504 0.044 -0.005 28 838352 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.040 0.118 4.111 0.044 -0.007 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.059 0.876 5.535 0.063 -0.017 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.064 1.155 6.261 0.067 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.046 0.368 4.394 0.050 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.007 0.463 1.825 0.007 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.046 0.262 3.945 0.050 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.007 0.504 1.591 0.007 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.032 -0.365 2.815 0.034 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.041 0.109 3.300 0.046 -0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.048 0.614 4.891 0.054 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.064 1.799 12.423 0.067 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.269 0.105 0.005 -0.094 2.992 -0.073 0.554 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.073 SERIES 838271 AND 838342 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.554 SERIES 838281 AND 838282 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.380 0.267 0.249 0.293 0.272 SDEV 0.242 0.138 0.154 0.163 0.145 SERR 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.938 0.909 0.906 0.926 0.917 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.999 0.027 -0.291 2.900 0.034 -0.164 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.099 0.037 -0.001 96 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.60 1.00 1.09 1.69 5.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.163 -0.067 0.068 -0.028 -0.028 0.072 -0.010 -0.049 0.071 0.005 PACF -0.163 -0.096 0.042 -0.016 -0.028 0.058 0.011 -0.038 0.050 0.022 95% C.L. 0.140 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.036 -0.164 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.005 0.033 -0.023 -0.017 0.061 -0.003 -0.033 0.056 0.002 PACF 0.003 0.005 0.033 -0.023 -0.017 0.060 -0.002 -0.034 0.052 0.005 95% C.L. 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.003 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.999 0.028 -0.329 3.204 0.028 0.272 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.270 0.172 0.090 0.020 0.009 0.053 0.006 -0.018 0.032 -0.009 PACF 0.270 0.107 0.021 -0.027 -0.003 0.056 -0.019 -0.031 0.043 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.140 0.150 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.086 0.243 0.110 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES