RUN: CANA2 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana071w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana071w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 838 1 Coats River (trocken) WIDTH_RING PCMA - 838 2 Canada Black Spruce 1000 5544-7609 1786 1988 - 838 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 838211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 838221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 838222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 838232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 838292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 67 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 838301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 838312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1901 1908 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 0.261 0.122 1.003 3.454 0.190 0.839 2 838212 1849 1988 140 0.198 0.084 2.158 13.491 0.204 0.639 3 838221 1798 1988 191 0.263 0.151 2.274 8.991 0.173 0.835 4 838222 1800 1988 189 0.305 0.130 1.984 6.940 0.157 0.837 5 838231 1790 1988 199 0.313 0.232 2.080 6.496 0.161 0.926 6 838232 1790 1988 199 0.228 0.152 2.519 9.145 0.223 0.870 7 838241 1795 1988 194 0.242 0.067 0.817 4.761 0.163 0.631 8 838242 1819 1985 167 0.270 0.097 0.518 3.592 0.172 0.833 9 838251 1801 1988 188 0.336 0.128 1.110 3.832 0.174 0.803 10 838252 1799 1952 154 0.319 0.187 1.220 4.615 0.170 0.868 11 838261 1819 1987 169 0.372 0.087 0.114 3.509 0.151 0.628 12 838262 1807 1980 174 0.237 0.095 1.759 6.983 0.182 0.712 13 838271 1885 1988 104 0.491 0.180 0.708 3.954 0.144 0.834 14 838272 1891 1988 98 0.390 0.075 1.054 4.839 0.131 0.594 15 838281 1806 1987 182 0.312 0.263 3.088 12.164 0.165 0.901 16 838282 1808 1988 181 0.279 0.146 2.946 12.718 0.177 0.878 17 838291 1806 1988 183 0.367 0.191 1.141 3.553 0.203 0.835 18 838292 1803 1982 180 0.241 0.150 1.661 5.256 0.207 0.885 19 838301 1814 1988 175 0.272 0.126 0.923 3.603 0.206 0.826 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 0.336 0.168 0.590 2.338 0.156 0.916 21 838311 1822 1988 167 0.393 0.094 0.519 3.287 0.153 0.727 22 838312 1830 1988 159 0.257 0.140 1.737 5.578 0.187 0.889 23 838321 1849 1988 140 0.321 0.123 0.548 2.790 0.161 0.832 24 838322 1821 1960 140 0.264 0.066 0.647 3.095 0.170 0.587 25 838341 1839 1988 150 0.409 0.088 0.756 3.695 0.135 0.681 26 838342 1849 1988 140 0.253 0.069 0.713 3.106 0.176 0.627 27 838351 1799 1988 190 0.225 0.052 1.233 7.344 0.145 0.551 28 838352 1798 1988 191 0.237 0.081 1.081 4.190 0.164 0.802 29 838361 1799 1988 190 0.230 0.092 1.739 6.749 0.146 0.803 30 838362 1786 1987 202 0.258 0.123 2.787 14.639 0.166 0.795 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1786 TO 1988 203 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 165 0.296 0.125 1.381 5.957 0.170 0.779 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.067 0.051 0.802 3.415 0.022 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 0.271 0.123 1.125 4.688 0.168 0.829 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.093 0.064 1.271 3.431 0.026 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.198 0.052 0.114 2.338 0.131 0.551 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.242 0.087 0.713 3.553 0.156 0.681 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 0.336 0.151 1.984 6.983 0.182 0.868 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 0.491 0.263 3.088 14.639 0.223 0.926 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.281 0.334 0.016 -0.192 2.289 -0.560 0.912 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.560 SERIES 838321 AND 838352 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.912 SERIES 838231 AND 838281 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.441 0.236 0.189 0.284 0.222 SDEV 0.268 0.276 0.323 0.245 0.285 SERR 0.022 0.016 0.017 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.951 0.895 0.872 0.922 0.895 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.300 0.116 1.870 5.980 0.117 0.867 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.695 0.327 0.015 117 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.62 1.00 1.10 1.72 5.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 176. 36. 98. 154. 190. 202. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.863 0.819 0.764 0.743 0.744 0.709 0.738 0.720 0.695 0.645 PACF 0.863 0.293 0.048 0.129 0.187 -0.037 0.239 0.028 -0.078 -0.120 95% C.L. 0.140 0.221 0.275 0.314 0.347 0.377 0.402 0.428 0.451 0.472 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.774 0.606 0.301 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 838211 1 0.37832245 0.03176361 0.00000000 0.19372150 2 838212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006230 0.19382221 3 838221 1 0.57754308 0.03916216 0.00000000 0.18613280 4 838222 1 0.50181401 0.03858510 0.00000000 0.23686074 5 838231 1 0.84796953 0.02780198 0.00000000 0.16201867 6 838232 1 0.59513247 0.03914561 0.00000000 0.15137781 7 838241 1 0.16398883 0.05945065 0.00000000 0.22867449 8 838242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121067 0.37145659 9 838251 1 0.41018149 0.00874651 0.00000000 0.13531266 10 838252 1 0.68286920 0.01705556 0.00000000 0.08016519 11 838261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022090 0.39126161 12 838262 1 0.32911128 0.04758924 0.00000000 0.19827263 13 838271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00374699 0.29434094 14 838272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00068684 0.35589942 15 838281 1 1.41578925 0.06969091 0.00000000 0.20376238 16 838282 1 0.85226947 0.09939300 0.00000000 0.23389180 17 838291 1 0.61159539 0.10486254 0.00000000 0.33709374 18 838292 1 0.50942141 0.03672308 0.00000000 0.12837484 19 838301 1 0.47976151 0.00912047 0.00000000 0.02951878 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 838302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00310728 0.57869041 21 838311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066827 0.33638048 22 838312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00200859 0.09339425 23 838321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00182240 0.19223535 24 838322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063187 0.30868962 25 838341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073621 0.35374942 26 838342 1 0.16334164 0.03047861 0.00000000 0.21618722 27 838351 1 0.22727391 0.22230357 0.00000000 0.22056356 28 838352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084099 0.31769800 29 838361 1 0.30327204 0.02687826 0.00000000 0.17129256 30 838362 1 0.28850850 0.02620902 0.00000000 0.20426029 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 0.999 0.338 1.112 5.472 0.189 0.727 2 838212 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.428 2.294 14.651 0.202 0.626 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.256 0.823 4.067 0.169 0.639 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.199 0.047 2.352 0.155 0.536 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.002 0.269 0.306 2.923 0.161 0.697 6 838232 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.287 1.338 6.709 0.220 0.528 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.249 0.487 4.009 0.163 0.605 8 838242 1819 1985 167 0.995 0.289 0.615 3.349 0.171 0.718 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.000 0.241 0.605 3.670 0.173 0.546 10 838252 1799 1952 154 0.998 0.226 0.601 3.604 0.170 0.552 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.235 0.301 3.629 0.151 0.632 12 838262 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.278 1.490 7.271 0.181 0.609 13 838271 1885 1988 104 0.998 0.290 1.542 8.741 0.144 0.699 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.184 1.069 5.493 0.130 0.539 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.245 0.200 2.841 0.164 0.646 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.001 0.257 -0.003 2.841 0.176 0.691 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.484 1.336 4.525 0.202 0.829 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.001 0.224 0.012 2.792 0.200 0.415 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.000 0.225 0.459 3.941 0.204 0.303 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 1.009 0.288 0.716 3.607 0.155 0.753 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.226 0.436 2.881 0.152 0.672 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.028 0.381 1.180 5.544 0.191 0.704 23 838321 1849 1988 140 0.993 0.287 0.521 2.985 0.161 0.709 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.224 0.475 3.627 0.169 0.474 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.197 0.467 2.952 0.134 0.627 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.223 0.846 4.247 0.175 0.433 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.208 0.401 3.350 0.144 0.590 28 838352 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.258 0.562 3.963 0.164 0.676 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.225 1.024 5.581 0.145 0.623 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.429 5.335 40.097 0.165 0.744 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.001 0.272 0.887 5.724 0.169 0.618 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.006 0.073 0.986 6.924 0.022 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.253 0.603 3.806 0.167 0.629 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.064 0.676 2.508 0.026 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.993 0.184 -0.003 2.352 0.130 0.303 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.225 0.436 2.985 0.155 0.546 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.288 1.112 5.493 0.181 0.699 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.028 0.484 5.335 40.097 0.220 0.829 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 838211 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 838212 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 838221 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 838222 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 838231 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 838232 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 838241 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 838242 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 838251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 838252 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 838261 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 838262 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 838271 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 838272 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 838281 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 838282 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 838291 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 838292 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 838301 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 838302 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 838311 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 838312 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 838321 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 838322 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 838341 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 838342 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 838351 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 838352 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 838361 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 838362 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 0.992 0.286 0.709 4.424 0.190 0.643 2 838212 1849 1988 140 0.994 0.289 0.772 5.261 0.204 0.540 3 838221 1798 1988 191 0.999 0.232 0.434 3.557 0.169 0.571 4 838222 1800 1988 189 0.999 0.194 0.097 2.396 0.155 0.509 5 838231 1790 1988 199 0.997 0.245 0.398 3.249 0.161 0.638 6 838232 1790 1988 199 0.999 0.275 1.150 5.579 0.220 0.495 7 838241 1795 1988 194 0.996 0.231 0.584 4.101 0.162 0.545 8 838242 1819 1985 167 0.994 0.240 0.598 3.367 0.172 0.600 9 838251 1801 1988 188 0.999 0.237 0.685 3.913 0.173 0.533 10 838252 1799 1952 154 0.998 0.211 0.563 3.621 0.169 0.488 11 838261 1819 1987 169 0.995 0.183 0.238 3.525 0.150 0.427 12 838262 1807 1980 174 0.995 0.241 1.233 6.253 0.182 0.510 13 838271 1885 1988 104 0.992 0.229 2.168 12.538 0.142 0.565 14 838272 1891 1988 98 0.999 0.166 0.861 4.571 0.129 0.460 15 838281 1806 1987 182 0.998 0.233 0.228 2.937 0.164 0.616 16 838282 1808 1988 181 0.999 0.220 -0.192 2.619 0.176 0.578 17 838291 1806 1988 183 0.986 0.388 1.014 4.152 0.202 0.755 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.218 0.005 2.803 0.200 0.381 19 838301 1814 1988 175 0.999 0.220 0.359 3.627 0.204 0.272 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 0.991 0.228 0.468 3.548 0.154 0.648 21 838311 1822 1988 167 0.998 0.216 0.382 2.867 0.152 0.641 22 838312 1830 1988 159 0.996 0.282 0.515 3.284 0.190 0.618 23 838321 1849 1988 140 0.994 0.212 0.626 3.910 0.161 0.517 24 838322 1821 1960 140 0.999 0.214 0.358 3.566 0.169 0.429 25 838341 1839 1988 150 0.998 0.184 0.434 2.875 0.134 0.579 26 838342 1849 1988 140 0.999 0.217 0.919 4.478 0.175 0.395 27 838351 1799 1988 190 0.999 0.200 0.442 3.685 0.144 0.549 28 838352 1798 1988 191 0.996 0.233 0.489 4.288 0.163 0.604 29 838361 1799 1988 190 0.998 0.206 0.765 5.136 0.145 0.558 30 838362 1786 1987 202 0.996 0.384 5.022 37.386 0.166 0.712 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.996 0.237 0.744 5.251 0.169 0.546 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.003 0.050 0.916 6.336 0.022 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.998 0.229 0.539 3.656 0.167 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.003 0.029 0.390 1.194 0.027 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.986 0.166 -0.192 2.396 0.129 0.272 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.995 0.212 0.382 3.284 0.154 0.495 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 0.999 0.241 0.772 4.478 0.182 0.616 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.388 5.022 37.386 0.220 0.755 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.246 0.140 0.007 0.151 3.755 -0.145 0.850 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.145 SERIES 838242 AND 838282 167 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.850 SERIES 838311 AND 838341 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.353 0.234 0.205 0.295 0.261 SDEV 0.185 0.228 0.225 0.225 0.220 SERR 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.930 0.894 0.882 0.926 0.913 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.985 0.136 0.077 3.333 0.119 0.405 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.339 0.129 0.057 89 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.49 1.00 1.06 1.55 70.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.403 0.186 0.019 -0.103 -0.128 -0.068 0.049 0.060 0.007 0.014 PACF 0.403 0.028 -0.077 -0.108 -0.048 0.028 0.100 -0.003 -0.069 0.015 95% C.L. 0.140 0.162 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.170 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.165 0.405 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.439 0.215 0.079 -0.021 -0.089 0.008 0.013 -0.040 -0.023 0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.439 2 0.427 0.028 3 0.428 0.041 -0.031 4 0.426 0.044 -0.004 -0.063 5 0.422 0.043 -0.001 -0.033 -0.068 6 0.429 0.047 -0.001 -0.038 -0.113 0.105 7 0.429 0.046 -0.001 -0.038 -0.112 0.108 -0.007 8 0.429 0.054 -0.010 -0.041 -0.113 0.112 0.025 -0.075 9 0.430 0.054 -0.011 -0.040 -0.112 0.112 0.025 -0.078 0.007 10 0.429 0.056 -0.011 -0.043 -0.110 0.113 0.025 -0.079 -0.002 0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1553.33 1511.84 1513.68 1515.48 1516.69 1517.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1517.47 1519.46 1520.33 1522.32 1524.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.439 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 19.29 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 123.90 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.439 0.193 0.085 0.037 0.016 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 838211 1 0.437 0.647 2 838212 1 0.339 0.582 3 838221 1 0.327 0.572 4 838222 1 0.263 0.510 5 838231 1 0.429 0.641 6 838232 1 0.251 0.497 7 838241 1 0.334 0.547 8 838242 1 0.374 0.608 9 838251 1 0.302 0.537 10 838252 1 0.250 0.499 11 838261 1 0.195 0.433 12 838262 1 0.266 0.513 13 838271 1 0.333 0.569 14 838272 1 0.241 0.472 15 838281 1 0.383 0.619 16 838282 1 0.340 0.580 17 838291 1 0.572 0.755 18 838292 1 0.147 0.382 19 838301 1 0.092 0.273 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 838302 1 0.429 0.650 21 838311 1 0.440 0.642 22 838312 1 0.406 0.635 23 838321 1 0.287 0.518 24 838322 1 0.225 0.430 25 838341 1 0.379 0.588 26 838342 1 0.177 0.397 27 838351 1 0.309 0.556 28 838352 1 0.364 0.604 29 838361 1 0.329 0.566 30 838362 1 0.509 0.712 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.324 0.551 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 0.102 MEDIAN 1 0.331 0.567 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.132 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.092 0.273 LOWER HINGE 1 0.251 0.499 UPPER HINGE 1 0.383 0.619 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.572 0.755 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 838211 1813 1988 176 1.000 0.218 0.450 5.091 0.246 -0.112 2 838212 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.229 0.342 4.399 0.257 -0.032 3 838221 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.190 0.235 3.238 0.213 -0.004 4 838222 1800 1988 189 1.000 0.167 0.267 2.649 0.190 -0.035 5 838231 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.188 0.600 4.314 0.213 -0.114 6 838232 1790 1988 199 1.000 0.239 0.877 4.849 0.271 -0.037 7 838241 1795 1988 194 1.000 0.193 0.551 5.665 0.214 -0.118 8 838242 1819 1985 167 1.000 0.190 -0.037 3.355 0.223 -0.038 9 838251 1801 1988 188 1.000 0.200 0.847 4.943 0.226 -0.075 10 838252 1799 1952 154 1.000 0.182 -0.007 3.498 0.208 -0.023 11 838261 1819 1987 169 1.000 0.164 0.215 3.533 0.178 0.045 12 838262 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.206 0.954 8.443 0.228 -0.033 13 838271 1885 1988 104 1.000 0.189 2.097 13.571 0.191 -0.064 14 838272 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.146 0.845 4.307 0.161 -0.066 15 838281 1806 1987 182 1.000 0.183 0.118 3.763 0.205 -0.010 16 838282 1808 1988 181 1.000 0.179 -0.292 2.345 0.215 -0.039 17 838291 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.254 1.217 5.703 0.267 0.062 18 838292 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.201 -0.169 3.075 0.232 -0.011 19 838301 1814 1988 175 1.000 0.211 0.304 4.059 0.238 -0.039 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 838302 1827 1981 155 1.000 0.173 0.687 4.806 0.198 -0.069 21 838311 1822 1988 167 1.000 0.165 0.236 3.350 0.196 -0.136 22 838312 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.215 0.568 3.508 0.239 -0.058 23 838321 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.181 0.764 4.179 0.208 -0.079 24 838322 1821 1960 140 1.000 0.193 0.965 5.639 0.210 -0.094 25 838341 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.148 0.535 3.094 0.175 -0.133 26 838342 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.199 1.213 5.958 0.214 -0.058 27 838351 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.166 0.311 4.955 0.192 0.006 28 838352 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.186 0.236 3.324 0.204 0.002 29 838361 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.169 0.189 3.779 0.197 -0.070 30 838362 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.269 5.879 60.385 0.232 0.044 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.193 0.700 6.459 0.215 -0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.029 1.091 10.397 0.026 0.051 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.189 0.493 4.243 0.213 -0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.033 0.612 1.736 0.035 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.146 -0.292 2.345 0.161 -0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.173 0.235 3.355 0.197 -0.075 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.206 0.847 5.091 0.232 -0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.269 5.879 60.385 0.271 0.062 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.306 0.107 0.005 0.231 4.045 0.015 0.763 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.015 SERIES 838341 AND 838362 149 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.763 SERIES 838271 AND 838272 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 153. 300. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.356 0.306 0.321 0.329 0.302 SDEV 0.135 0.156 0.165 0.182 0.144 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.007 EPS 0.931 0.924 0.932 0.936 0.928 NSS 24.5 27.6 29.1 30.0 29.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.993 0.120 -0.028 3.635 0.146 -0.135 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.253 0.088 0.056 76 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.49 1.00 1.07 1.56 9.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.05 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.134 0.010 -0.034 -0.087 -0.094 -0.046 0.079 0.032 -0.020 0.107 PACF -0.134 -0.008 -0.035 -0.098 -0.123 -0.082 0.053 0.034 -0.038 0.084 95% C.L. 0.140 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.135 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.013 -0.047 -0.107 -0.116 -0.050 0.080 0.041 -0.004 0.084 PACF -0.002 -0.013 -0.047 -0.108 -0.120 -0.060 0.065 0.020 -0.031 0.068 95% C.L. 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.146 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1786 1988 203 0.994 0.130 -0.050 3.166 0.115 0.412 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.410 0.125 -0.045 -0.151 -0.166 -0.079 0.043 0.047 0.011 0.001 PACF 0.410 -0.052 -0.093 -0.112 -0.064 0.026 0.076 -0.030 -0.045 0.002 95% C.L. 0.140 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.167 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.172 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.172 0.412 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES