RUN: CANAREDO FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA081I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA081I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 847 1 Yasinski-Lake (feucht) DENSITY_EARLY PCMA - 847 2 Canada Black Spruce 450 5314-7740 1847 1988 - 847 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 847011 1854 1987 134 5.007 0.418 -0.649 3.736 0.043 0.805 2 847012 1858 1952 95 4.546 0.301 0.270 3.072 0.042 0.583 3 847041 1875 1988 114 4.103 0.352 0.923 5.252 0.039 0.766 4 847042 1883 1988 106 3.959 0.292 -0.452 2.351 0.037 0.807 5 847051 1888 1987 100 4.402 0.357 -0.485 2.624 0.038 0.807 6 847052 1881 1988 108 4.111 0.198 -0.580 5.021 0.040 0.442 7 847061 1848 1941 94 3.979 0.343 0.372 2.014 0.035 0.863 8 847062 1847 1949 103 3.781 0.256 0.566 2.722 0.045 0.610 9 847071 1874 1988 115 4.153 0.245 -0.639 3.034 0.035 0.722 10 847072 1869 1955 87 3.900 0.289 0.440 2.951 0.045 0.680 11 847101 1881 1988 108 4.253 0.203 -0.202 3.734 0.046 0.310 12 847102 1881 1988 108 4.450 0.400 1.485 5.389 0.038 0.839 13 847131 1873 1988 116 4.053 0.268 0.130 3.685 0.052 0.535 14 847132 1862 1988 127 4.109 0.210 0.321 2.791 0.045 0.366 15 847141 1851 1972 122 4.165 0.291 0.378 3.149 0.043 0.611 16 847142 1855 1972 118 4.282 0.330 0.317 3.429 0.049 0.586 17 847151 1874 1979 106 4.437 0.248 0.084 2.555 0.037 0.652 18 847152 1872 1987 116 4.393 0.338 -0.017 1.980 0.037 0.827 19 847181 1874 1987 114 4.501 0.433 0.078 2.339 0.035 0.867 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 847182 1881 1988 108 4.567 0.433 -0.127 1.867 0.036 0.887 21 847321 1868 1988 121 4.613 0.307 -0.071 2.852 0.036 0.756 22 847322 1868 1988 121 4.353 0.210 -0.003 2.740 0.036 0.518 23 847361 1876 1988 113 4.027 0.280 -0.200 2.982 0.038 0.745 24 847362 1886 1980 95 4.008 0.243 2.137 8.270 0.038 0.566 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1847 TO 1988 142 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 4.256 0.302 0.170 3.356 0.040 0.673 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.280 0.072 0.651 1.415 0.005 0.162 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 4.209 0.292 0.081 2.966 0.038 0.701 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.403 0.101 0.576 1.120 0.008 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 87 3.781 0.198 -0.649 1.867 0.035 0.310 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 4.040 0.247 -0.201 2.590 0.036 0.575 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 117 4.443 0.347 0.375 3.710 0.044 0.807 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 5.007 0.433 2.137 8.270 0.052 0.887 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.356 0.230 0.014 -0.705 3.836 -0.490 0.835 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.490 SERIES 847102 AND 847152 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.835 SERIES 847042 AND 847061 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 153. RBAR 0.510 0.198 0.251 SDEV 0.169 0.222 0.236 SERR 0.015 0.014 0.019 EPS 0.960 0.855 0.881 NSS 22.9 23.8 21.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1847 1988 142 4.190 0.248 -0.797 3.601 0.028 0.776 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.526 0.214 -0.546 49 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.24 1.00 1.07 1.31 6.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 110. 12. 87. 104. 117. 134. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.771 0.687 0.615 0.665 0.612 0.588 0.507 0.563 0.542 0.532 PACF 0.771 0.230 0.079 0.325 -0.015 0.045 -0.076 0.210 0.006 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.168 0.248 0.297 0.331 0.367 0.394 0.418 0.435 0.455 0.473 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.728 0.437 0.157 -0.037 0.370 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 847011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00749625 4.50146580 2 847012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00661758 4.22846127 3 847041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00341212 3.90652227 4 847042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00638547 3.61762261 5 847051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00961830 3.91617584 6 847052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160974 4.19902754 7 847061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01062919 3.47404933 8 847062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00502680 3.52006292 9 847071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00303543 3.97681475 10 847072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00597470 3.63711309 11 847101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047019 4.27849579 12 847102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00701268 4.06762362 13 847131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00451463 3.78908396 14 847132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175812 3.99677157 15 847141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00281190 3.99247789 16 847142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00527045 3.96869636 17 847151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027589 4.42222118 18 847152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221966 4.52260876 19 847181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01094818 3.87100601 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 847182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01117146 3.95791459 21 847321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00551389 4.27662802 22 847322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00238166 4.20818996 23 847361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00556973 3.70987034 24 847362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00401246 3.81571770 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 847011 1854 1987 134 1.000 0.060 -0.561 3.739 0.042 0.611 2 847012 1858 1952 95 1.000 0.053 0.994 5.151 0.042 0.335 3 847041 1875 1988 114 1.000 0.082 1.778 7.806 0.039 0.742 4 847042 1883 1988 106 1.000 0.054 -0.167 3.493 0.037 0.647 5 847051 1888 1987 100 1.000 0.052 1.063 6.469 0.037 0.557 6 847052 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.047 -0.601 4.542 0.040 0.390 7 847061 1848 1941 94 1.000 0.046 -0.205 2.979 0.035 0.586 8 847062 1847 1949 103 1.000 0.054 -0.064 3.913 0.045 0.385 9 847071 1874 1988 115 1.000 0.054 -0.185 2.802 0.034 0.674 10 847072 1869 1955 87 1.000 0.064 1.006 4.523 0.044 0.555 11 847101 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.048 -0.110 3.812 0.045 0.306 12 847102 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.074 0.983 4.226 0.038 0.744 13 847131 1873 1988 116 1.000 0.055 0.454 3.650 0.052 0.314 14 847132 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.049 0.424 3.091 0.045 0.307 15 847141 1851 1972 122 1.000 0.066 0.716 4.605 0.043 0.542 16 847142 1855 1972 118 1.000 0.065 1.412 10.225 0.049 0.385 17 847151 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.056 0.076 2.599 0.037 0.646 18 847152 1872 1987 116 1.000 0.075 -0.226 2.190 0.037 0.800 19 847181 1874 1987 114 1.000 0.053 0.722 3.085 0.035 0.609 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 847182 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.055 0.545 3.298 0.036 0.665 21 847321 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.052 0.438 2.768 0.035 0.599 22 847322 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.044 -0.209 3.156 0.036 0.428 23 847361 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.052 0.232 2.550 0.038 0.578 24 847362 1886 1980 95 1.000 0.053 1.442 6.042 0.038 0.476 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 1.000 0.057 0.415 4.196 0.040 0.537 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.010 0.661 1.860 0.005 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.054 0.431 3.695 0.038 0.568 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.010 1.164 1.542 0.008 0.259 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.044 -0.601 2.190 0.034 0.306 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.052 -0.176 3.032 0.036 0.387 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.062 0.988 4.574 0.044 0.647 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.082 1.778 10.225 0.052 0.800 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 847011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 847012 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 847041 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 847042 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 847051 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 847052 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 847061 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 847062 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 847071 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 847072 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 847101 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 847102 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 847131 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 847132 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 847141 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 847142 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 847151 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 847152 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 847181 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 847182 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 847321 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 847322 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 847361 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 847362 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 847011 1854 1987 134 1.000 0.047 0.054 3.749 0.042 0.335 2 847012 1858 1952 95 1.000 0.049 1.391 6.266 0.042 0.247 3 847041 1875 1988 114 0.999 0.065 1.958 8.579 0.039 0.599 4 847042 1883 1988 106 1.000 0.039 -0.720 5.197 0.037 0.317 5 847051 1888 1987 100 1.000 0.046 1.726 9.336 0.037 0.430 6 847052 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.044 -0.510 4.709 0.040 0.322 7 847061 1848 1941 94 1.000 0.039 -0.034 3.068 0.035 0.423 8 847062 1847 1949 103 1.000 0.050 0.090 4.312 0.045 0.288 9 847071 1874 1988 115 1.000 0.041 -0.237 2.703 0.034 0.446 10 847072 1869 1955 87 1.000 0.047 1.030 4.063 0.044 0.227 11 847101 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.044 -0.091 3.430 0.045 0.195 12 847102 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.055 0.992 5.430 0.038 0.579 13 847131 1873 1988 116 1.000 0.053 0.437 3.641 0.052 0.272 14 847132 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.046 0.276 2.884 0.045 0.233 15 847141 1851 1972 122 1.000 0.057 0.960 6.582 0.043 0.404 16 847142 1855 1972 118 1.000 0.061 1.692 11.928 0.049 0.296 17 847151 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.043 0.171 3.001 0.037 0.375 18 847152 1872 1987 116 1.000 0.045 0.071 2.805 0.036 0.488 19 847181 1874 1987 114 1.000 0.046 0.700 3.095 0.035 0.476 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 847182 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.043 0.002 3.044 0.036 0.464 21 847321 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.045 0.343 3.179 0.035 0.468 22 847322 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.041 -0.010 3.295 0.036 0.326 23 847361 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.043 0.083 2.827 0.038 0.390 24 847362 1886 1980 95 1.000 0.046 1.384 5.869 0.038 0.348 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 1.000 0.047 0.490 4.708 0.040 0.373 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.007 0.737 2.383 0.005 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.046 0.223 3.695 0.038 0.362 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.006 1.015 2.594 0.008 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.999 0.039 -0.720 2.703 0.034 0.195 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.043 -0.004 3.056 0.036 0.292 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.049 1.011 5.650 0.044 0.455 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.065 1.958 11.928 0.052 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.222 0.148 0.009 -0.881 4.793 -0.386 0.578 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.386 SERIES 847041 AND 847061 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.578 SERIES 847041 AND 847051 100 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 153. RBAR 0.228 0.209 0.329 SDEV 0.205 0.193 0.143 SERR 0.019 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.871 0.863 0.915 NSS 22.9 23.8 21.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1847 1988 142 0.998 0.027 0.011 4.772 0.026 0.262 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.265 0.113 -0.076 55 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.59 1.00 1.09 1.68 11.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.260 0.121 -0.036 0.090 0.058 0.005 -0.091 0.037 0.003 -0.024 PACF 0.260 0.057 -0.086 0.121 0.022 -0.044 -0.082 0.091 -0.023 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.168 0.179 0.181 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.185 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.072 0.261 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.327 0.084 0.042 0.151 0.061 0.045 -0.083 0.026 0.041 0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.327 2 0.336 -0.026 3 0.336 -0.034 0.025 4 0.333 -0.029 -0.024 0.148 5 0.338 -0.030 -0.026 0.160 -0.039 6 0.340 -0.035 -0.025 0.162 -0.050 0.034 7 0.344 -0.042 -0.005 0.158 -0.055 0.075 -0.122 8 0.354 -0.048 -0.001 0.146 -0.054 0.079 -0.150 0.080 9 0.353 -0.046 -0.002 0.146 -0.056 0.079 -0.149 0.076 0.012 10 0.353 -0.044 -0.006 0.149 -0.058 0.083 -0.149 0.074 0.022 -0.028 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 495.88 481.78 483.69 485.60 484.48 486.26 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 488.10 487.96 489.05 491.03 492.92 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.327 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.72 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.00 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.327 0.107 0.035 0.011 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 847011 1 0.146 0.344 2 847012 1 0.063 0.249 3 847041 1 0.376 0.600 4 847042 1 0.108 0.319 5 847051 1 0.187 0.432 6 847052 1 0.107 0.328 7 847061 1 0.183 0.427 8 847062 1 0.086 0.293 9 847071 1 0.215 0.447 10 847072 1 0.066 0.233 11 847101 1 0.050 0.197 12 847102 1 0.346 0.585 13 847131 1 0.078 0.272 14 847132 1 0.060 0.234 15 847141 1 0.195 0.407 16 847142 1 0.091 0.296 17 847151 1 0.146 0.382 18 847152 1 0.257 0.499 19 847181 1 0.250 0.498 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 847182 1 0.259 0.467 21 847321 1 0.278 0.473 22 847322 1 0.129 0.333 23 847361 1 0.157 0.392 24 847362 1 0.176 0.356 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.167 0.378 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.091 0.109 MEDIAN 1 0.151 0.369 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.144 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.050 0.197 LOWER HINGE 1 0.089 0.295 UPPER HINGE 1 0.232 0.457 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.376 0.600 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 847011 1854 1987 134 1.000 0.044 -0.011 3.137 0.050 -0.068 2 847012 1858 1952 95 1.000 0.047 1.496 6.932 0.047 0.007 3 847041 1875 1988 114 1.000 0.052 0.749 7.279 0.053 -0.096 4 847042 1883 1988 106 1.000 0.037 -0.448 4.136 0.042 -0.027 5 847051 1888 1987 100 1.000 0.041 0.817 7.493 0.047 -0.015 6 847052 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.042 -0.326 4.182 0.046 0.005 7 847061 1848 1941 94 1.000 0.035 -0.040 2.860 0.040 -0.006 8 847062 1847 1949 103 1.000 0.048 0.123 4.087 0.052 0.006 9 847071 1874 1988 115 1.000 0.037 -0.322 3.032 0.043 -0.062 10 847072 1869 1955 87 1.000 0.046 1.153 4.344 0.049 0.025 11 847101 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.043 -0.174 3.443 0.050 0.019 12 847102 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.045 0.157 3.528 0.051 -0.041 13 847131 1873 1988 116 1.000 0.051 0.270 3.436 0.058 0.017 14 847132 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.045 0.306 2.904 0.049 0.019 15 847141 1851 1972 122 1.000 0.052 1.309 9.633 0.053 -0.074 16 847142 1855 1972 118 1.000 0.058 1.747 13.280 0.057 -0.018 17 847151 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.039 0.471 3.418 0.043 0.008 18 847152 1872 1987 116 1.000 0.039 0.256 2.819 0.045 -0.041 19 847181 1874 1987 114 1.000 0.039 0.622 3.107 0.044 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 847182 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.038 -0.034 2.921 0.045 -0.105 21 847321 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.040 0.086 3.594 0.045 -0.129 22 847322 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.039 0.018 3.129 0.042 -0.049 23 847361 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.040 -0.308 2.755 0.046 -0.021 24 847362 1886 1980 95 1.000 0.043 0.999 5.009 0.042 0.090 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 1.000 0.043 0.372 4.603 0.048 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.006 0.614 2.580 0.005 0.049 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.042 0.206 3.486 0.047 -0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.007 0.821 1.607 0.007 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.035 -0.448 2.755 0.040 -0.129 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.039 -0.037 3.069 0.044 -0.055 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.047 0.783 4.676 0.050 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.058 1.747 13.280 0.058 0.090 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.238 0.130 0.008 -0.844 4.286 -0.253 0.513 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.253 SERIES 847041 AND 847061 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.513 SERIES 847071 AND 847072 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 153. RBAR 0.216 0.229 0.332 SDEV 0.187 0.171 0.129 SERR 0.017 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.863 0.876 0.916 NSS 22.9 23.8 21.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1847 1988 142 0.999 0.026 0.251 4.379 0.030 -0.102 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.131 0.052 -0.017 53 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.42 1.01 1.09 1.51 7.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.101 0.041 -0.090 0.088 0.040 0.029 -0.125 0.072 -0.033 0.023 PACF -0.101 0.031 -0.084 0.071 0.061 0.027 -0.113 0.053 -0.019 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.168 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.175 0.176 0.176 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.022 -0.079 0.085 0.053 0.021 -0.117 0.058 -0.024 0.014 PACF 0.003 0.022 -0.080 0.086 0.056 0.010 -0.108 0.062 -0.027 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.173 0.173 0.174 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1847 1988 142 0.999 0.028 -0.039 4.473 0.025 0.331 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.329 0.109 -0.008 0.088 0.074 0.015 -0.086 0.011 -0.031 -0.043 PACF 0.329 0.001 -0.050 0.118 0.018 -0.035 -0.086 0.075 -0.062 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.168 0.185 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.190 0.190 0.190 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.110 0.331 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES