RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl WIDTH_EARLY PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.831 0.276 0.835 4.311 0.216 0.664 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.750 0.262 0.392 2.753 0.205 0.689 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.587 0.231 1.179 4.712 0.210 0.710 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.542 0.206 0.912 4.901 0.173 0.794 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.538 0.206 0.170 2.821 0.212 0.771 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.485 0.179 -0.011 2.557 0.177 0.825 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.901 0.399 0.850 4.075 0.156 0.854 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.526 0.173 -0.187 2.524 0.172 0.815 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.468 0.165 0.007 2.754 0.214 0.766 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.680 0.210 0.169 2.442 0.206 0.666 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.652 0.339 0.529 2.575 0.205 0.895 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.585 0.216 0.486 3.524 0.205 0.735 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.581 0.266 1.144 5.075 0.157 0.891 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.445 0.155 0.443 2.884 0.164 0.823 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.832 0.312 0.134 2.807 0.183 0.818 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.010 0.490 0.085 2.074 0.185 0.907 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.626 0.224 0.671 4.096 0.225 0.705 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.557 0.263 1.689 8.449 0.228 0.809 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.519 0.288 1.036 4.577 0.193 0.908 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.498 0.241 1.452 6.776 0.166 0.891 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.094 0.391 0.290 2.298 0.188 0.771 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.901 0.418 0.030 2.096 0.179 0.868 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.494 0.182 0.958 3.593 0.232 0.664 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.463 0.143 -0.224 3.479 0.234 0.655 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.523 0.152 0.499 3.948 0.194 0.639 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.572 0.216 -0.240 2.913 0.232 0.785 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.651 0.306 0.794 3.445 0.251 0.768 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.509 0.273 0.741 2.770 0.245 0.852 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.636 0.257 0.530 3.615 0.200 0.784 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.175 0.087 0.513 1.441 0.027 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.576 0.236 0.492 3.179 0.205 0.790 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.201 0.103 0.772 1.540 0.043 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.445 0.143 -0.240 2.074 0.156 0.639 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.514 0.194 0.110 2.664 0.178 0.708 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 207 0.715 0.297 0.881 4.204 0.220 0.853 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.094 0.490 1.689 8.449 0.251 0.908 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.338 0.274 0.014 -0.149 2.297 -0.388 0.929 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.388 SERIES 701051 AND 701081 155 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.929 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.398 0.476 0.390 0.367 0.267 0.299 SDEV 0.226 0.220 0.241 0.242 0.286 0.255 SERR 0.026 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.933 0.959 0.947 0.942 0.911 0.923 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.587 0.163 0.557 3.961 0.144 0.769 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.683 0.369 0.013 158 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 0.81 1.00 1.18 1.99 7.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.765 0.669 0.616 0.555 0.528 0.507 0.465 0.462 0.389 0.371 PACF 0.765 0.202 0.132 0.033 0.087 0.063 -0.005 0.081 -0.117 0.048 95% C.L. 0.132 0.195 0.232 0.259 0.279 0.296 0.311 0.323 0.334 0.342 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.622 0.566 0.127 0.155 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210474 0.68845248 2 701012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00239415 0.56957495 3 701031 1 0.28367293 0.05623694 0.00000000 0.56502897 4 701032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00172778 0.72037840 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00175370 0.67650414 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100234 0.57099408 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016999 0.88777292 8 701052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00130454 0.62996101 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111349 0.57274282 10 701062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071247 0.61381459 11 701081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020660 0.67576051 12 701082 1 0.24242885 0.01284376 0.00000000 0.50272971 13 701091 1 0.89914501 0.01033178 0.00000000 0.21444093 14 701092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178210 0.62104684 15 701101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00418198 1.24579251 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00650775 1.71320927 17 701111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00259194 0.89155608 18 701112 1 1.08418834 0.05261960 0.00000000 0.45681995 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296498 0.84239888 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214481 0.73374885 21 701131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00402527 1.45402586 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00529023 1.43301857 23 701141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067734 0.42410171 24 701142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059958 0.52525538 25 701151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072770 0.59409487 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00303905 0.83154470 27 701161 1 0.97798240 0.00964783 0.00000000 0.21702129 28 701162 1 0.86636978 0.01400669 0.00000000 0.21596819 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.999 0.311 0.701 4.077 0.214 0.632 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.001 0.339 0.871 3.902 0.204 0.687 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.388 1.354 5.534 0.209 0.709 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.997 0.325 0.826 3.908 0.172 0.755 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.998 0.370 0.593 3.876 0.211 0.738 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.998 0.352 0.056 3.006 0.176 0.808 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.441 0.833 4.092 0.155 0.848 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.999 0.319 0.003 2.484 0.170 0.793 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.342 0.267 3.014 0.213 0.727 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.999 0.301 0.166 2.585 0.205 0.658 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.523 0.559 2.628 0.204 0.891 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.354 0.371 3.035 0.204 0.716 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.257 0.128 2.679 0.157 0.723 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.001 0.266 0.146 2.686 0.164 0.699 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.995 0.257 -0.061 2.908 0.182 0.631 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.983 0.271 -0.195 3.955 0.185 0.665 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.266 0.462 3.077 0.224 0.472 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.001 0.311 -0.549 3.438 0.227 0.634 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.971 0.384 1.219 6.009 0.192 0.839 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.987 0.361 1.593 8.232 0.164 0.834 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.995 0.292 0.179 2.222 0.186 0.674 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.980 0.310 0.136 2.263 0.178 0.754 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.351 0.739 3.432 0.230 0.647 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.310 -0.041 3.113 0.233 0.644 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.281 0.443 3.596 0.193 0.616 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.993 0.311 0.159 3.976 0.231 0.611 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.998 0.329 0.762 4.391 0.249 0.476 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.377 1.359 6.453 0.244 0.659 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 0.996 0.332 0.467 3.735 0.199 0.698 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.007 0.058 0.513 1.373 0.027 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.999 0.322 0.407 3.435 0.204 0.693 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.004 0.061 0.662 1.230 0.042 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.971 0.257 -0.549 2.222 0.155 0.472 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.996 0.297 0.132 2.797 0.177 0.639 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.357 0.794 4.027 0.219 0.754 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.001 0.523 1.593 8.232 0.249 0.891 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.994 0.235 0.185 3.624 0.214 0.404 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.989 0.260 0.402 2.984 0.204 0.523 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.992 0.335 0.938 3.971 0.209 0.632 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.996 0.299 0.906 4.449 0.172 0.695 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.995 0.342 0.471 3.731 0.211 0.695 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.990 0.264 0.167 2.739 0.175 0.674 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.983 0.257 0.451 4.094 0.155 0.637 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.996 0.286 -0.104 2.572 0.170 0.743 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.995 0.298 0.116 3.255 0.213 0.643 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.997 0.235 0.078 3.815 0.205 0.436 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.959 0.354 0.231 2.794 0.204 0.790 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.992 0.312 0.320 3.262 0.204 0.663 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.998 0.245 0.119 2.673 0.156 0.692 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.998 0.256 0.158 2.776 0.163 0.679 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.997 0.245 0.246 3.524 0.182 0.584 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.998 0.265 0.452 6.481 0.185 0.609 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.997 0.248 0.362 3.008 0.224 0.401 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.985 0.252 -0.259 3.286 0.226 0.467 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.992 0.280 0.688 4.684 0.193 0.623 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.995 0.260 1.173 6.323 0.165 0.645 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.997 0.243 0.319 2.991 0.186 0.551 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.997 0.249 0.020 2.564 0.178 0.615 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.995 0.317 0.713 3.850 0.231 0.603 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.991 0.260 0.033 3.585 0.232 0.464 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.997 0.267 0.426 3.472 0.193 0.579 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.995 0.294 0.556 5.264 0.230 0.542 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.997 0.308 0.624 3.990 0.249 0.422 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.992 0.337 1.008 5.411 0.244 0.592 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 0.993 0.279 0.386 3.756 0.199 0.593 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.008 0.035 0.346 1.057 0.027 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.995 0.265 0.341 3.555 0.204 0.612 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.005 0.053 0.452 1.055 0.043 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.959 0.235 -0.259 2.564 0.155 0.401 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.992 0.251 0.139 2.988 0.176 0.533 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 0.997 0.303 0.590 4.042 0.219 0.668 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 0.998 0.354 1.173 6.481 0.249 0.790 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.324 0.138 0.007 0.290 3.545 -0.034 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.034 SERIES 701031 AND 701052 159 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.460 0.522 0.395 0.396 0.329 0.288 SDEV 0.173 0.202 0.200 0.191 0.222 0.225 SERR 0.020 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.947 0.965 0.948 0.948 0.932 0.919 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.985 0.163 0.061 3.524 0.139 0.467 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.278 0.123 0.091 73 155 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.24 1.00 1.04 1.29 3.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.465 0.312 0.297 0.176 0.112 0.098 0.004 0.046 -0.055 -0.076 PACF 0.465 0.122 0.146 -0.036 -0.013 0.013 -0.082 0.069 -0.126 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.132 0.159 0.169 0.178 0.181 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.246 0.393 0.060 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.498 0.354 0.308 0.209 0.117 0.110 0.000 0.037 -0.049 -0.096 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.498 2 0.428 0.141 3 0.412 0.091 0.118 4 0.413 0.092 0.123 -0.012 5 0.412 0.097 0.127 0.007 -0.048 6 0.414 0.097 0.123 0.004 -0.061 0.032 7 0.417 0.091 0.123 0.018 -0.050 0.076 -0.108 8 0.425 0.085 0.127 0.016 -0.059 0.070 -0.138 0.072 9 0.433 0.070 0.135 0.010 -0.057 0.084 -0.129 0.117 -0.108 10 0.427 0.077 0.128 0.014 -0.060 0.084 -0.121 0.121 -0.085 -0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1884.87 1821.78 1819.21 1818.04 1820.01 1821.49 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1823.26 1822.59 1823.42 1822.75 1824.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.412 0.091 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 137.63 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.412 0.260 0.262 0.180 0.128 0.100 0.074 0.054 0.041 0.0304 0.023 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0016 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 3 0.182 0.387 -0.017 0.133 2 701012 3 0.340 0.425 0.028 0.230 3 701031 3 0.439 0.495 0.142 0.096 4 701032 3 0.492 0.646 0.023 0.069 5 701041 3 0.513 0.636 0.011 0.119 6 701042 3 0.466 0.707 -0.055 0.027 7 701051 3 0.474 0.515 0.145 0.091 8 701052 3 0.592 0.567 0.278 -0.038 9 701061 3 0.440 0.557 0.052 0.110 10 701062 3 0.221 0.387 0.087 0.042 11 701081 3 0.646 0.692 -0.042 0.199 12 701082 3 0.466 0.548 0.066 0.140 13 701091 3 0.492 0.666 0.119 -0.103 14 701092 3 0.469 0.631 0.117 -0.060 15 701101 3 0.380 0.459 0.197 0.028 16 701102 3 0.397 0.631 -0.093 0.127 17 701111 3 0.174 0.388 -0.004 0.101 18 701112 3 0.333 0.295 0.140 0.275 19 701121 3 0.413 0.506 0.199 -0.011 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 3 0.426 0.602 0.038 0.048 21 701131 3 0.325 0.487 0.137 -0.019 22 701132 3 0.389 0.551 0.112 -0.008 23 701141 3 0.374 0.568 0.019 0.069 24 701142 3 0.272 0.332 0.242 0.048 25 701151 3 0.355 0.545 -0.017 0.131 26 701152 3 0.296 0.563 -0.033 -0.008 27 701161 3 0.196 0.366 0.074 0.094 28 701162 3 0.393 0.434 0.221 0.055 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.391 0.521 0.078 0.071 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.116 0.112 0.096 0.086 MEDIAN 3 0.395 0.546 0.070 0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.139 0.187 0.138 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.174 0.295 -0.093 -0.103 LOWER HINGE 3 0.329 0.429 0.003 0.010 UPPER HINGE 3 0.468 0.616 0.141 0.123 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.646 0.707 0.278 0.275 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.212 0.394 3.758 0.244 0.005 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.213 0.676 4.108 0.227 0.029 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.252 0.862 5.062 0.254 0.008 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.213 0.378 5.647 0.223 0.003 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.238 0.448 3.063 0.259 0.002 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.193 0.384 2.995 0.211 -0.005 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.188 1.083 6.020 0.189 0.024 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.182 0.159 3.809 0.201 -0.006 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.226 -0.007 3.812 0.248 0.015 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.210 0.009 3.988 0.233 0.006 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.211 0.253 3.996 0.242 0.009 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.228 0.485 3.332 0.255 0.002 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.174 0.099 2.742 0.194 -0.001 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.187 0.093 3.361 0.207 -0.004 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.193 0.095 3.740 0.218 -0.002 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.204 0.083 5.004 0.226 -0.003 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.225 0.228 2.765 0.258 -0.002 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.207 0.064 2.912 0.238 -0.019 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.214 -0.027 5.023 0.234 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.197 0.523 5.295 0.212 0.004 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.200 -0.064 3.136 0.228 -0.005 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.195 -0.022 3.093 0.221 0.002 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.250 0.493 3.617 0.274 -0.002 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.222 -0.207 3.951 0.259 -0.004 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.214 0.331 4.547 0.237 0.002 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.247 0.522 5.458 0.272 0.000 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.276 0.416 4.215 0.302 0.001 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.263 0.558 4.917 0.289 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.215 0.297 4.049 0.238 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.025 0.298 0.940 0.027 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.213 0.292 3.881 0.235 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.031 0.415 1.726 0.037 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.174 -0.207 2.742 0.189 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.196 0.074 3.234 0.220 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.227 0.489 4.960 0.257 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.276 1.083 6.020 0.302 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.394 0.103 0.005 1.060 5.006 0.166 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.166 SERIES 701151 AND 701162 194 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.458 0.455 0.428 0.410 0.432 0.418 SDEV 0.162 0.150 0.140 0.140 0.149 0.146 SERR 0.018 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.947 0.955 0.954 0.951 0.955 0.953 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.997 0.140 -0.005 3.139 0.166 -0.108 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.221 0.085 0.067 82 146 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.51 1.00 1.06 1.56 3.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.108 -0.075 0.045 -0.023 -0.045 0.054 -0.088 0.107 -0.067 -0.027 PACF -0.108 -0.087 0.027 -0.022 -0.045 0.040 -0.084 0.101 -0.066 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.132 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.139 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.019 -0.108 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 -0.020 -0.048 0.048 -0.078 0.096 -0.071 -0.033 PACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 -0.020 -0.048 0.048 -0.079 0.097 -0.076 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.997 0.160 0.090 3.560 0.130 0.481 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.479 0.325 0.269 0.157 0.088 0.082 -0.005 0.037 -0.066 -0.086 PACF 0.479 0.124 0.097 -0.034 -0.026 0.029 -0.079 0.069 -0.129 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.132 0.160 0.171 0.178 0.181 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.183 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.249 0.409 0.081 0.096 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES