RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl DENSITY_EARLY PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 3.628 0.236 4.896 41.807 0.050 0.126 2 701012 1834 1983 150 3.378 0.306 3.373 24.144 0.054 0.577 3 701031 1764 1983 220 3.249 0.234 0.234 2.858 0.049 0.599 4 701032 1778 1983 206 3.259 0.223 0.012 2.813 0.043 0.641 5 701041 1827 1983 157 3.582 0.443 0.778 2.849 0.043 0.897 6 701042 1814 1983 170 3.837 0.251 1.168 6.097 0.041 0.666 7 701051 1829 1983 155 3.769 0.268 1.177 4.883 0.037 0.708 8 701052 1825 1983 159 3.802 0.224 0.322 4.846 0.036 0.646 9 701061 1797 1983 187 3.530 0.485 1.500 5.220 0.057 0.742 10 701062 1798 1983 186 3.382 0.300 4.108 27.750 0.056 0.165 11 701081 1756 1983 228 3.729 0.292 0.831 5.660 0.046 0.682 12 701082 1772 1983 212 3.712 0.262 0.483 3.132 0.047 0.658 13 701091 1775 1983 209 3.495 0.257 0.872 6.526 0.046 0.617 14 701092 1787 1983 197 3.584 0.237 -0.438 3.111 0.051 0.507 15 701101 1787 1983 197 3.336 0.229 0.357 2.784 0.042 0.673 16 701102 1769 1983 215 3.406 0.382 1.310 5.551 0.044 0.818 17 701111 1780 1983 204 3.721 0.314 1.073 4.105 0.045 0.709 18 701112 1784 1983 200 3.645 0.216 0.918 5.743 0.050 0.368 19 701121 1767 1983 217 3.908 0.412 2.434 13.627 0.046 0.790 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 3.792 0.207 0.320 3.093 0.042 0.547 21 701131 1806 1983 178 3.382 0.277 0.679 5.369 0.051 0.559 22 701132 1784 1983 200 3.347 0.388 0.632 2.575 0.045 0.870 23 701141 1780 1983 204 3.770 0.262 0.261 2.584 0.047 0.614 24 701142 1777 1983 207 3.761 0.320 1.778 8.558 0.044 0.676 25 701151 1790 1983 194 3.224 0.182 0.152 4.386 0.048 0.391 26 701152 1814 1983 170 3.339 0.322 0.967 4.166 0.057 0.702 27 701161 1786 1983 198 3.400 0.226 0.638 3.129 0.058 0.333 28 701162 1788 1983 196 3.230 0.211 0.576 2.998 0.060 0.298 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 3.543 0.285 1.122 7.513 0.048 0.592 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.213 0.076 1.221 9.037 0.006 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 3.556 0.262 0.804 4.616 0.046 0.643 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.383 0.090 0.904 2.874 0.008 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 134 3.224 0.182 -0.438 2.575 0.036 0.126 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 3.362 0.227 0.339 3.045 0.043 0.527 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 207 3.745 0.317 1.244 5.920 0.051 0.705 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 3.908 0.485 4.896 41.807 0.060 0.897 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.216 0.221 0.011 0.048 2.986 -0.365 0.782 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.365 SERIES 701061 AND 701131 178 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.782 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.338 0.310 0.362 0.293 0.172 0.145 SDEV 0.191 0.218 0.201 0.208 0.258 0.231 SERR 0.022 0.015 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.915 0.920 0.940 0.921 0.854 0.826 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 3.563 0.182 1.418 5.699 0.032 0.647 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.138 -0.081 0.614 53 175 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.36 1.01 1.07 1.43 10.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.645 0.554 0.479 0.408 0.366 0.278 0.339 0.356 0.329 0.325 PACF 0.645 0.237 0.097 0.029 0.043 -0.063 0.185 0.118 0.006 0.024 95% C.L. 0.132 0.179 0.207 0.226 0.238 0.248 0.253 0.261 0.270 0.276 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.486 0.440 0.218 0.125 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124807 3.54359102 2 701012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049352 3.34080625 3 701031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060792 3.18155169 4 701032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118413 3.13676286 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00672458 3.05117822 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009524 3.82844543 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00256453 3.56925678 8 701052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216318 3.62920952 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00281266 3.79471111 10 701062 1 0.18005978 0.04481056 0.00000000 3.36060286 11 701081 1 0.52405941 0.01885844 0.00000000 3.60989928 12 701082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00154265 3.87636733 13 701091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060441 3.43184805 14 701092 1 0.22459024 0.03591691 0.00000000 3.55250812 15 701101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273741 3.06483388 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00365620 3.01131654 17 701111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100372 3.61785436 18 701112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066290 3.57847881 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00395368 3.47656035 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131699 3.64491391 21 701131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00309873 3.10507894 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00519382 2.82492113 23 701141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068587 3.84074330 24 701142 1 1.27715325 0.10137405 0.00000000 3.70333076 25 701151 1 0.30126294 0.00894153 0.00000000 3.08148789 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00446430 2.95765543 27 701161 1 0.31128672 0.02170118 0.00000000 3.32926559 28 701162 1 0.23029979 0.01524277 0.00000000 3.15756464 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.064 5.002 43.595 0.049 0.088 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.090 3.316 23.805 0.054 0.571 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.071 0.091 2.572 0.049 0.590 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.065 -0.270 2.524 0.043 0.611 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.090 0.795 3.472 0.043 0.784 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.065 1.199 6.220 0.040 0.662 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.063 0.418 3.456 0.037 0.656 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.052 -0.510 4.823 0.036 0.571 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.130 1.621 5.722 0.056 0.693 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.089 4.389 29.922 0.055 0.149 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.071 1.526 10.421 0.045 0.602 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.066 0.577 3.447 0.047 0.607 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.073 1.153 8.113 0.046 0.604 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.065 -0.309 3.109 0.051 0.486 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.050 0.014 3.439 0.042 0.384 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.092 2.212 10.413 0.043 0.714 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.084 1.401 5.217 0.045 0.694 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.058 0.915 5.277 0.050 0.349 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.082 2.201 13.450 0.046 0.651 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.050 0.064 2.748 0.041 0.468 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.067 1.235 9.160 0.051 0.345 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.074 0.618 3.284 0.045 0.656 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.069 0.314 2.410 0.046 0.606 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.071 2.261 14.484 0.043 0.554 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.052 -0.189 4.037 0.047 0.286 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.068 0.409 4.005 0.057 0.445 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.063 0.911 4.074 0.058 0.239 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.063 0.707 3.447 0.059 0.243 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.071 1.145 8.452 0.047 0.511 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.017 1.348 9.477 0.006 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.068 0.853 4.448 0.046 0.581 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.015 1.371 6.343 0.008 0.286 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.050 -0.510 2.410 0.036 0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.063 0.202 3.443 0.043 0.367 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.078 1.574 9.786 0.051 0.653 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.130 5.002 43.595 0.059 0.784 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.061 5.179 45.040 0.049 0.011 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.083 3.108 23.310 0.054 0.507 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.058 0.068 2.706 0.049 0.402 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.053 -0.316 2.798 0.043 0.410 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.064 0.420 2.837 0.043 0.621 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.057 0.979 5.897 0.040 0.563 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.057 0.381 3.082 0.037 0.616 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.045 -0.600 5.708 0.036 0.429 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.999 0.115 1.687 7.002 0.056 0.604 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.087 4.602 32.796 0.055 0.121 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.064 1.587 11.756 0.045 0.515 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.057 0.339 3.054 0.047 0.489 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.057 1.119 7.585 0.045 0.383 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.057 -0.095 3.007 0.051 0.324 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.046 0.108 3.790 0.042 0.286 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.063 1.109 6.777 0.043 0.523 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.071 1.408 5.790 0.045 0.591 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.052 1.011 6.395 0.050 0.190 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.061 1.942 16.354 0.046 0.417 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.042 0.064 2.865 0.041 0.242 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.064 1.560 10.748 0.051 0.288 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.058 0.543 3.385 0.045 0.469 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.058 0.452 3.048 0.046 0.452 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.063 2.020 13.493 0.043 0.456 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.051 -0.224 4.034 0.047 0.251 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.065 0.490 4.591 0.056 0.379 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.059 0.658 3.462 0.058 0.165 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.061 0.698 3.281 0.059 0.189 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.062 1.082 8.735 0.047 0.389 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.014 1.355 9.931 0.006 0.162 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.059 0.678 5.150 0.046 0.414 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.007 1.350 6.099 0.008 0.243 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.999 0.042 -0.600 2.706 0.036 0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.057 0.224 3.068 0.043 0.269 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.064 1.574 9.167 0.051 0.511 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.115 5.179 45.040 0.059 0.621 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.253 0.134 0.007 0.109 3.447 -0.191 0.656 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.191 SERIES 701041 AND 701051 155 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.656 SERIES 701161 AND 701162 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.331 0.332 0.374 0.331 0.181 0.154 SDEV 0.199 0.196 0.181 0.187 0.205 0.213 SERR 0.023 0.014 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.913 0.927 0.943 0.933 0.861 0.836 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.997 0.032 0.408 3.697 0.032 0.174 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.201 0.106 -0.060 107 121 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.64 1.01 1.10 1.74 18.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.174 0.061 0.046 0.023 0.102 -0.063 0.099 0.082 -0.027 -0.038 PACF 0.174 0.031 0.031 0.009 0.097 -0.102 0.125 0.044 -0.056 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.132 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.141 0.141 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.174 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.192 0.077 0.082 0.048 0.123 -0.038 0.087 0.133 -0.048 -0.077 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.192 2 0.184 0.041 3 0.182 0.030 0.062 4 0.180 0.029 0.059 0.020 5 0.178 0.023 0.056 0.000 0.108 6 0.188 0.023 0.061 0.002 0.125 -0.091 7 0.197 0.010 0.060 -0.004 0.122 -0.111 0.103 8 0.188 0.021 0.049 -0.004 0.116 -0.112 0.084 0.095 9 0.197 0.029 0.038 0.008 0.116 -0.107 0.086 0.114 -0.101 10 0.188 0.039 0.045 -0.001 0.126 -0.106 0.089 0.116 -0.084 -0.088 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1137.40 1130.84 1132.44 1133.56 1135.47 1134.78 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1134.88 1134.46 1134.40 1134.05 1134.28 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.192 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.69 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.83 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.192 0.037 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 1 0.006 0.011 2 701012 1 0.272 0.509 3 701031 1 0.269 0.404 4 701032 1 0.248 0.414 5 701041 1 0.417 0.627 6 701042 1 0.325 0.565 7 701051 1 0.489 0.630 8 701052 1 0.214 0.431 9 701061 1 0.417 0.604 10 701062 1 0.021 0.121 11 701081 1 0.277 0.516 12 701082 1 0.272 0.490 13 701091 1 0.183 0.397 14 701092 1 0.141 0.324 15 701101 1 0.084 0.288 16 701102 1 0.307 0.548 17 701111 1 0.408 0.611 18 701112 1 0.062 0.191 19 701121 1 0.192 0.431 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 1 0.059 0.243 21 701131 1 0.122 0.289 22 701132 1 0.251 0.475 23 701141 1 0.222 0.460 24 701142 1 0.227 0.460 25 701151 1 0.064 0.253 26 701152 1 0.151 0.379 27 701161 1 0.029 0.165 28 701162 1 0.043 0.189 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.206 0.394 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.134 0.165 MEDIAN 1 0.218 0.423 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.200 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.006 0.011 LOWER HINGE 1 0.074 0.271 UPPER HINGE 1 0.275 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.489 0.630 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.061 5.196 45.214 0.049 0.001 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.071 3.465 28.399 0.069 -0.069 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.053 0.178 3.160 0.061 -0.142 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.048 -0.008 3.150 0.055 -0.127 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.050 0.337 2.973 0.059 -0.131 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.047 0.862 4.934 0.048 0.056 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.045 0.135 3.182 0.054 -0.225 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.040 -0.281 4.916 0.045 -0.078 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.092 1.642 16.721 0.078 -0.173 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.086 4.789 34.526 0.060 -0.009 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.054 2.052 17.185 0.056 -0.064 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.050 0.192 3.488 0.059 -0.099 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.052 0.839 5.354 0.055 -0.075 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.053 0.152 3.255 0.059 -0.064 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.044 0.032 4.432 0.049 -0.010 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.052 0.931 5.977 0.056 -0.076 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.055 1.057 5.032 0.063 -0.161 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.051 1.068 7.078 0.057 -0.031 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.055 1.871 15.230 0.057 -0.030 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.041 0.213 2.900 0.045 0.000 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.062 2.186 15.744 0.059 -0.059 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.051 0.399 3.999 0.056 -0.089 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.051 0.383 3.323 0.057 -0.058 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.056 1.965 13.693 0.055 -0.060 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.049 -0.289 4.551 0.053 -0.001 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.060 0.652 5.219 0.066 -0.035 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.059 0.695 3.425 0.063 0.007 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.060 0.803 3.520 0.065 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.055 1.126 9.664 0.057 -0.065 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.012 1.393 10.624 0.007 0.063 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.053 0.749 4.925 0.057 -0.062 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.010 1.572 11.088 0.006 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.040 -0.289 2.900 0.045 -0.225 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.049 0.185 3.374 0.054 -0.094 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.059 1.757 14.462 0.061 -0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.092 5.196 45.214 0.078 0.056 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.313 0.116 0.006 0.622 3.775 0.052 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.052 SERIES 701061 AND 701081 187 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 701011 AND 701012 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.402 0.383 0.416 0.366 0.219 0.217 SDEV 0.156 0.148 0.154 0.152 0.172 0.173 SERR 0.018 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.934 0.941 0.952 0.942 0.887 0.886 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.032 0.521 3.818 0.038 -0.192 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.299 0.136 -0.097 84 144 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.74 1.00 1.08 1.82 35.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.191 -0.018 0.010 -0.031 0.118 -0.141 0.113 0.060 -0.046 -0.030 PACF -0.191 -0.056 -0.005 -0.033 0.111 -0.104 0.081 0.090 -0.007 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.132 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.040 -0.192 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.054 -0.001 -0.010 0.095 -0.111 0.106 0.078 -0.041 -0.028 PACF -0.012 -0.054 -0.002 -0.013 0.094 -0.111 0.118 0.067 -0.027 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.138 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.032 0.416 3.646 0.032 0.170 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.169 -0.019 -0.005 0.002 0.076 -0.075 0.102 0.088 -0.025 -0.029 PACF 0.169 -0.049 0.007 0.000 0.078 -0.106 0.146 0.037 -0.041 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.132 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.140 0.140 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.170 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES