RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl WIDTH_LATE PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 701032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1802 1806 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 701062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1807 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 701091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1983 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 701092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 701101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1849 1854 / 1898 1902 / 1913 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.136 0.035 0.817 4.918 0.183 0.485 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.158 0.046 2.804 18.605 0.184 0.308 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.112 0.035 0.773 3.616 0.187 0.656 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.114 0.037 0.968 4.056 0.177 0.738 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.139 0.043 0.275 2.374 0.196 0.707 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.109 0.044 3.935 27.455 0.214 0.603 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.220 0.123 1.660 5.136 0.207 0.813 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.153 0.060 1.330 5.268 0.170 0.788 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.123 0.059 3.150 18.368 0.201 0.753 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.173 0.059 0.965 4.386 0.227 0.584 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.161 0.053 0.958 4.532 0.196 0.589 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.157 0.065 0.931 3.656 0.183 0.828 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.090 0.037 2.887 14.602 0.197 0.754 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.097 0.038 1.678 5.496 0.193 0.776 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.152 0.077 1.590 6.739 0.198 0.788 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.139 0.071 1.480 6.199 0.248 0.755 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.136 0.062 4.438 36.806 0.238 0.561 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.115 0.050 3.580 25.595 0.228 0.572 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.134 0.072 1.472 6.944 0.228 0.799 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.115 0.050 1.267 5.873 0.207 0.782 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.172 0.062 2.337 13.577 0.241 0.399 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.147 0.069 0.791 3.153 0.216 0.793 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.137 0.046 1.101 5.968 0.242 0.582 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.119 0.035 0.797 4.138 0.175 0.722 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.127 0.032 0.808 3.324 0.167 0.573 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.136 0.042 1.261 6.302 0.225 0.418 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.127 0.048 2.226 11.422 0.205 0.600 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.125 0.043 0.749 3.361 0.184 0.682 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 190 0.136 0.053 1.680 9.353 0.204 0.657 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.027 0.019 1.083 8.637 0.023 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 196 0.136 0.049 1.299 5.685 0.199 0.695 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.036 0.022 1.408 8.403 0.042 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.090 0.032 0.275 2.374 0.167 0.308 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.117 0.040 0.874 4.097 0.184 0.577 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.153 0.062 2.282 12.500 0.226 0.779 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 0.220 0.123 4.438 36.806 0.248 0.828 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.292 0.228 0.012 -0.184 2.635 -0.323 0.830 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.323 SERIES 701041 AND 701151 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.830 SERIES 701121 AND 701122 214 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.342 0.224 0.220 0.168 0.150 0.160 SDEV 0.227 0.212 0.244 0.182 0.202 0.210 SERR 0.026 0.015 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.917 0.880 0.887 0.850 0.832 0.842 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.133 0.032 0.632 3.108 0.110 0.826 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.528 0.252 0.008 127 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.62 1.00 1.20 2.82 11.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.822 0.790 0.784 0.760 0.769 0.749 0.704 0.695 0.663 0.649 PACF 0.822 0.351 0.261 0.120 0.184 0.057 -0.074 0.005 -0.062 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.132 0.203 0.251 0.291 0.324 0.355 0.381 0.403 0.424 0.442 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.760 0.374 0.136 0.187 0.043 0.203 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004918 0.13943890 2 701012 1 0.09777874 0.03726821 0.00000000 0.14063080 3 701031 1 0.06592225 0.01509562 0.00000000 0.09273940 4 701032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042173 0.15774588 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060615 0.18731259 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042584 0.14499757 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026509 0.19938752 8 701052 1 0.22431701 0.05146595 0.00000000 0.12650260 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045080 0.16510265 10 701062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001193 0.17044993 11 701081 1 0.01199498 0.00281837 0.00000000 0.15186580 12 701082 1 0.17072023 0.01355924 0.00000000 0.10090097 13 701091 1 0.15105471 0.04735617 0.00000000 0.07471364 14 701092 1 0.14894263 0.04194329 0.00000000 0.07921917 15 701101 1 0.26520911 0.02179730 0.00000000 0.09168581 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086451 0.23234384 17 701111 1 0.27686962 0.09731244 0.00000000 0.12250518 18 701112 1 0.35790965 0.16489023 0.00000000 0.10486729 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082759 0.22389401 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056506 0.17510246 21 701131 1 0.13646485 0.00973380 0.00000000 0.10778703 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100165 0.24766584 23 701141 1 0.09124133 0.04219301 0.00000000 0.12619247 24 701142 1 0.14565733 0.00470032 0.00000000 0.02580021 25 701151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012123 0.11549971 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019178 0.15257362 27 701161 1 0.19172886 0.06836888 0.00000000 0.11328549 28 701162 1 0.12158328 0.03328819 0.00000000 0.10705809 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.255 0.873 5.019 0.182 0.481 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.270 4.865 41.766 0.183 0.119 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.286 1.248 5.982 0.187 0.583 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.229 1.304 6.041 0.176 0.461 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.245 0.464 3.363 0.195 0.510 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.999 0.320 3.147 18.855 0.213 0.451 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.999 0.538 1.542 4.924 0.205 0.799 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.267 0.798 4.228 0.169 0.584 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.996 0.422 3.851 24.315 0.200 0.678 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.343 0.987 4.397 0.225 0.583 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.333 0.998 4.665 0.195 0.586 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.307 0.542 3.452 0.183 0.639 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.206 0.913 5.400 0.199 0.158 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.227 1.122 5.798 0.190 0.369 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.264 0.914 4.447 0.197 0.420 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.013 0.314 1.054 4.291 0.248 0.358 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.312 1.557 6.134 0.236 0.425 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.270 0.222 3.948 0.227 0.408 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.991 0.326 2.682 15.028 0.228 0.525 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.001 0.302 1.760 8.831 0.209 0.580 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.305 2.333 12.157 0.240 0.201 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.016 0.286 1.156 4.859 0.216 0.440 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.328 1.824 9.836 0.241 0.508 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.202 0.693 4.363 0.175 0.357 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.248 1.171 4.718 0.167 0.557 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.314 1.807 8.579 0.224 0.404 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.277 1.353 6.385 0.205 0.377 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.292 1.726 9.192 0.183 0.491 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.296 1.532 8.606 0.204 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.004 0.066 1.036 8.137 0.023 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.289 1.209 5.599 0.200 0.471 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.001 0.057 0.870 4.590 0.041 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.991 0.202 0.222 3.363 0.167 0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.259 0.914 4.422 0.183 0.390 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.317 1.783 9.011 0.224 0.582 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.016 0.538 4.865 41.766 0.248 0.799 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.997 0.191 0.399 4.897 0.183 0.159 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.999 0.259 4.491 38.036 0.183 0.095 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.993 0.244 1.128 5.614 0.187 0.444 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.997 0.200 0.990 4.948 0.176 0.298 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.997 0.229 0.472 3.522 0.195 0.443 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.999 0.315 3.474 21.392 0.214 0.419 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.980 0.319 1.356 5.718 0.208 0.522 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.998 0.249 1.207 5.666 0.169 0.525 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.996 0.353 3.000 17.555 0.201 0.586 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.996 0.304 0.885 4.131 0.225 0.474 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.988 0.251 1.134 5.626 0.195 0.352 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.993 0.249 0.512 2.971 0.183 0.505 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.204 0.936 5.562 0.199 0.146 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.216 1.107 5.989 0.190 0.310 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.998 0.237 1.089 4.426 0.197 0.304 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.998 0.281 0.846 4.297 0.248 0.281 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.294 1.418 5.955 0.236 0.374 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.997 0.242 0.548 3.810 0.227 0.279 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.997 0.280 1.896 11.153 0.227 0.413 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.995 0.257 1.416 7.598 0.209 0.451 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.304 2.349 12.215 0.240 0.196 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.997 0.239 0.721 4.073 0.216 0.269 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.320 2.018 11.888 0.241 0.491 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.189 0.883 4.938 0.175 0.248 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.998 0.186 0.761 3.635 0.167 0.235 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.998 0.290 1.968 9.940 0.224 0.342 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.999 0.251 1.459 6.352 0.205 0.256 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.994 0.250 1.541 8.488 0.184 0.345 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 0.996 0.257 1.429 8.228 0.204 0.349 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.004 0.044 0.945 7.263 0.023 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.998 0.250 1.131 5.646 0.200 0.343 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.003 0.059 0.854 4.853 0.041 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.980 0.186 0.399 2.971 0.167 0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.996 0.233 0.864 4.361 0.183 0.262 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 0.999 0.292 1.718 9.214 0.224 0.447 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.353 4.491 38.036 0.248 0.586 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.158 0.107 0.006 0.193 3.814 -0.180 0.548 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.180 SERIES 701052 AND 701131 159 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.548 SERIES 701011 AND 701012 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.312 0.291 0.165 0.166 0.173 0.160 SDEV 0.147 0.213 0.184 0.162 0.172 0.174 SERR 0.017 0.015 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.906 0.913 0.845 0.848 0.854 0.842 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.977 0.110 0.302 3.475 0.105 0.293 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.365 0.224 -0.022 105 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.81 1.00 1.06 1.87 8.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.292 0.157 0.193 0.132 0.091 0.136 -0.028 -0.018 -0.106 -0.075 PACF 0.292 0.079 0.140 0.039 0.021 0.081 -0.125 -0.017 -0.137 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.132 0.143 0.146 0.151 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.157 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.091 0.293 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.310 0.168 0.212 0.160 0.038 0.128 -0.026 -0.064 -0.099 -0.120 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.310 2 0.285 0.079 3 0.273 0.035 0.156 4 0.264 0.033 0.141 0.055 5 0.268 0.041 0.143 0.071 -0.060 6 0.274 0.034 0.128 0.067 -0.087 0.101 7 0.287 0.023 0.137 0.084 -0.083 0.137 -0.131 8 0.280 0.029 0.133 0.088 -0.076 0.138 -0.117 -0.051 9 0.275 0.018 0.146 0.081 -0.067 0.151 -0.114 -0.023 -0.097 10 0.268 0.016 0.138 0.092 -0.072 0.157 -0.103 -0.022 -0.077 -0.074 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1704.08 1683.06 1683.63 1680.02 1681.32 1682.49 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1682.17 1680.20 1681.61 1681.45 1682.22 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.310 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.62 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.310 0.096 0.030 0.009 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 1 0.025 0.159 2 701012 1 0.062 0.096 3 701031 1 0.222 0.444 4 701032 1 0.099 0.299 5 701041 1 0.214 0.446 6 701042 1 0.191 0.420 7 701051 1 0.317 0.559 8 701052 1 0.282 0.526 9 701061 1 0.344 0.587 10 701062 1 0.240 0.487 11 701081 1 0.157 0.353 12 701082 1 0.295 0.508 13 701091 1 0.023 0.147 14 701092 1 0.118 0.310 15 701101 1 0.110 0.308 16 701102 1 0.090 0.284 17 701111 1 0.152 0.375 18 701112 1 0.108 0.280 19 701121 1 0.181 0.413 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 1 0.228 0.451 21 701131 1 0.056 0.196 22 701132 1 0.085 0.272 23 701141 1 0.246 0.491 24 701142 1 0.089 0.254 25 701151 1 0.082 0.236 26 701152 1 0.123 0.342 27 701161 1 0.075 0.256 28 701162 1 0.143 0.346 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.156 0.352 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.089 0.129 MEDIAN 1 0.133 0.344 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.138 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.023 0.096 LOWER HINGE 1 0.087 0.264 UPPER HINGE 1 0.225 0.449 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.344 0.587 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.188 0.690 6.095 0.194 0.001 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.258 4.820 41.787 0.194 -0.023 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.218 0.836 5.478 0.240 -0.078 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.190 0.610 3.970 0.212 -0.031 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.205 0.552 3.519 0.236 -0.056 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.286 2.818 15.674 0.258 0.055 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.264 1.288 6.073 0.261 -0.008 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.211 0.804 4.918 0.222 -0.046 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.285 2.156 14.751 0.287 0.002 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.264 0.948 5.749 0.281 -0.031 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.235 1.175 7.088 0.241 -0.067 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.215 0.553 4.145 0.241 -0.115 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.202 0.931 5.466 0.217 -0.006 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.206 1.115 6.009 0.226 -0.048 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.225 1.180 5.044 0.225 -0.043 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.269 0.845 4.440 0.286 -0.030 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.272 1.357 6.584 0.288 -0.044 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.232 0.624 4.157 0.260 -0.050 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.255 1.474 8.510 0.280 -0.047 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.229 0.824 4.744 0.266 -0.078 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.298 2.454 12.884 0.267 -0.026 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.230 0.778 4.179 0.247 -0.030 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.279 1.234 7.151 0.312 -0.040 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.183 0.856 4.928 0.200 -0.035 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.181 0.640 3.514 0.191 -0.039 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.273 1.905 10.688 0.260 0.027 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.243 1.515 6.978 0.238 -0.026 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.234 1.266 7.458 0.221 -0.055 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.237 1.295 7.928 0.245 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.034 0.898 7.361 0.032 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.233 1.032 5.879 0.241 -0.037 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.059 0.624 2.712 0.045 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.181 0.552 3.514 0.191 -0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.208 0.791 4.592 0.221 -0.049 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.267 1.416 7.304 0.267 -0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.298 4.820 41.787 0.312 0.055 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.166 0.092 0.005 0.665 4.523 -0.087 0.570 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.087 SERIES 701052 AND 701131 159 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.570 SERIES 701011 AND 701012 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.282 0.274 0.177 0.166 0.172 0.167 SDEV 0.146 0.175 0.157 0.143 0.152 0.152 SERR 0.017 0.012 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.893 0.906 0.856 0.848 0.854 0.849 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.984 0.105 0.377 4.038 0.125 -0.086 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.332 0.203 -0.021 104 124 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.64 1.00 1.10 1.74 214.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.085 0.004 0.124 0.037 0.023 0.136 -0.073 0.011 -0.098 -0.023 PACF -0.085 -0.004 0.125 0.060 0.031 0.128 -0.063 -0.012 -0.138 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.007 0.129 0.050 0.038 0.134 -0.061 -0.003 -0.100 -0.037 PACF 0.000 0.007 0.129 0.051 0.038 0.120 -0.074 -0.017 -0.141 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.984 0.111 0.324 3.472 0.101 0.325 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.323 0.148 0.182 0.119 0.102 0.133 -0.022 -0.042 -0.118 -0.086 PACF 0.323 0.048 0.135 0.023 0.044 0.073 -0.120 -0.037 -0.139 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.132 0.146 0.148 0.152 0.154 0.155 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.159 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.107 0.325 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.93 MINUTES