RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl DENSITY_MINIMUM PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 701011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 701042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1831 1837 / 1841 1845 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 701052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 701081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1763 1767 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 701091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 701121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1881 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 701132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 701141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1886 1890 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.301 0.024 3.621 28.951 0.062 0.128 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.282 0.030 3.352 27.577 0.067 0.435 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.275 0.022 0.220 2.969 0.052 0.644 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.277 0.024 0.138 2.664 0.048 0.734 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.305 0.043 0.838 3.058 0.055 0.873 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.332 0.027 0.747 3.960 0.048 0.654 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.307 0.024 0.935 5.209 0.043 0.703 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.319 0.023 -0.095 4.441 0.049 0.596 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.297 0.046 1.306 4.582 0.068 0.736 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.280 0.031 3.386 22.191 0.071 0.194 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.301 0.030 1.013 8.070 0.064 0.625 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.298 0.025 0.365 2.969 0.061 0.578 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.287 0.026 0.672 5.126 0.068 0.494 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.305 0.027 -0.122 3.182 0.060 0.600 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.280 0.023 0.634 4.929 0.060 0.471 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.284 0.040 1.519 7.391 0.060 0.769 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.307 0.032 1.309 5.238 0.065 0.634 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.306 0.024 1.939 13.198 0.071 0.257 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.337 0.046 2.595 15.218 0.059 0.762 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.324 0.024 0.278 2.991 0.053 0.589 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.278 0.029 0.727 4.841 0.058 0.601 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.282 0.036 0.555 2.615 0.055 0.838 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.322 0.025 0.518 3.648 0.055 0.564 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.325 0.034 2.131 11.694 0.053 0.608 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.277 0.020 0.479 4.210 0.059 0.362 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.283 0.031 1.412 6.624 0.068 0.638 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.292 0.022 0.802 4.283 0.073 0.134 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.281 0.022 0.697 4.305 0.071 0.182 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 190 0.298 0.029 1.142 7.719 0.060 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.019 0.008 1.034 7.307 0.008 0.209 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.297 0.026 0.775 4.711 0.060 0.601 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.025 0.008 0.967 4.315 0.013 0.225 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.275 0.020 -0.122 2.615 0.043 0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.281 0.024 0.498 3.415 0.054 0.453 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 206 0.307 0.032 1.466 7.730 0.067 0.678 MAXIMUM VALUE 223 0.337 0.046 3.621 28.951 0.073 0.873 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.241 0.212 0.011 -0.075 3.008 -0.373 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.373 SERIES 701061 AND 701132 187 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.334 0.260 0.299 0.303 0.220 0.167 SDEV 0.194 0.204 0.194 0.222 0.251 0.223 SERR 0.022 0.014 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.914 0.900 0.922 0.924 0.888 0.849 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.299 0.017 1.072 4.792 0.041 0.516 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.043 -0.025 0.038 65 163 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.48 1.00 1.10 1.58 4.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.514 0.437 0.344 0.279 0.241 0.198 0.256 0.256 0.246 0.231 PACF 0.514 0.235 0.075 0.032 0.036 0.011 0.137 0.080 0.034 0.020 95% C.L. 0.132 0.164 0.183 0.194 0.201 0.206 0.209 0.215 0.220 0.225 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.320 0.388 0.250 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003870 0.29718125 2 701012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009062 0.28904161 3 701031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003960 0.27057907 4 701032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014997 0.26146814 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059827 0.25738609 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002132 0.32903981 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009951 0.29888311 8 701052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013777 0.30748391 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028696 0.32349837 10 701062 1 0.03034059 0.02146583 0.00000000 0.27219075 11 701081 1 0.04610635 0.02610574 0.00000000 0.29403192 12 701082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013595 0.31226191 13 701091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005167 0.28154218 14 701092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010367 0.29440641 15 701101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024213 0.25587693 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041556 0.23930536 17 701111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005055 0.30197576 18 701112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008042 0.29761809 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045083 0.28773797 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016971 0.30519933 21 701131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032539 0.24919254 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046040 0.23462524 23 701141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011957 0.33514956 24 701142 1 0.12815873 0.09645724 0.00000000 0.31915173 25 701151 1 0.07743815 0.14562124 0.00000000 0.27451548 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040327 0.24822624 27 701161 1 0.01468306 0.01822267 0.00000000 0.28769314 28 701162 1 0.02535292 0.25587502 0.00000000 0.28083190 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.078 3.527 28.561 0.060 0.151 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.107 3.615 29.710 0.066 0.422 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.079 0.142 2.794 0.052 0.639 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.080 -0.155 2.489 0.048 0.696 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.111 0.843 3.626 0.055 0.768 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.081 0.784 4.178 0.048 0.662 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.075 0.560 4.296 0.042 0.692 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.067 -0.385 4.320 0.048 0.557 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.147 1.495 5.199 0.068 0.678 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.110 4.152 28.007 0.071 0.137 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.092 1.609 12.234 0.063 0.567 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.079 0.534 3.229 0.061 0.526 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.089 0.838 6.077 0.066 0.482 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.086 -0.326 3.167 0.060 0.575 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.063 0.334 4.750 0.060 0.174 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.001 0.112 2.220 11.230 0.060 0.629 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.105 1.454 5.898 0.065 0.628 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.077 1.736 11.574 0.070 0.229 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.103 2.479 15.147 0.059 0.607 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.067 0.012 2.567 0.052 0.517 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.083 0.880 7.596 0.058 0.397 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.088 0.562 3.307 0.054 0.653 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.076 0.559 3.178 0.054 0.547 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.088 3.004 22.002 0.053 0.474 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.063 -0.030 3.530 0.059 0.223 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.082 0.817 5.813 0.068 0.405 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.076 0.969 4.864 0.073 0.107 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.079 0.751 4.438 0.071 0.173 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.087 1.178 8.706 0.059 0.475 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.018 1.226 8.349 0.008 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.081 0.828 4.807 0.060 0.537 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.021 1.239 7.984 0.013 0.321 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.063 -0.385 2.489 0.042 0.107 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.077 0.434 3.418 0.053 0.313 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.098 1.673 11.402 0.066 0.634 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.001 0.147 4.152 29.710 0.073 0.768 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.074 3.575 28.869 0.060 0.080 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.101 3.461 28.987 0.066 0.365 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.999 0.063 0.141 2.924 0.052 0.440 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.064 -0.070 2.988 0.048 0.527 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.082 0.376 2.757 0.055 0.619 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.068 0.370 3.765 0.048 0.559 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.061 0.311 3.832 0.043 0.582 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.058 -0.427 4.569 0.048 0.408 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.999 0.132 1.675 7.136 0.068 0.584 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.108 4.395 31.053 0.071 0.110 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.085 1.588 12.276 0.063 0.490 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.072 0.234 2.998 0.061 0.426 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.076 0.507 4.551 0.066 0.324 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.073 -0.043 3.168 0.060 0.410 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.061 0.436 5.405 0.060 0.120 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.082 1.374 7.594 0.060 0.423 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.091 1.226 5.445 0.065 0.530 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.071 1.616 12.095 0.070 0.104 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.074 2.504 20.440 0.059 0.313 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.054 -0.089 2.965 0.052 0.266 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.078 1.264 9.776 0.058 0.323 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.069 0.167 3.135 0.054 0.451 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.066 0.647 3.880 0.054 0.399 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.078 2.881 21.371 0.053 0.365 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.063 0.077 3.635 0.059 0.206 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.075 0.833 6.252 0.068 0.295 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.073 0.721 3.997 0.073 0.052 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.076 0.620 4.036 0.071 0.120 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.076 1.085 8.925 0.059 0.353 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.016 1.244 8.766 0.008 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.074 0.633 4.560 0.060 0.382 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.015 1.402 7.534 0.013 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.999 0.054 -0.427 2.757 0.043 0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.065 0.200 3.402 0.053 0.236 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.080 1.602 10.936 0.066 0.471 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.132 4.395 31.053 0.073 0.619 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.270 0.130 0.007 0.150 3.278 -0.080 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 701061 AND 701131 178 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 701011 AND 701012 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.317 0.260 0.308 0.340 0.243 0.167 SDEV 0.186 0.192 0.182 0.190 0.194 0.209 SERR 0.021 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.908 0.900 0.925 0.935 0.900 0.849 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.997 0.039 0.368 4.292 0.039 0.165 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.128 -0.071 101 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 38.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.165 0.143 0.067 0.046 0.074 -0.047 0.065 0.076 -0.061 -0.083 PACF 0.165 0.119 0.028 0.016 0.056 -0.078 0.068 0.070 -0.101 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.132 0.136 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 0.146 0.118 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.169 0.109 0.090 0.079 0.141 -0.051 0.038 0.098 -0.101 -0.140 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.169 2 0.155 0.083 3 0.150 0.073 0.062 4 0.147 0.069 0.054 0.049 5 0.142 0.063 0.046 0.032 0.114 6 0.154 0.067 0.051 0.039 0.129 -0.109 7 0.158 0.062 0.050 0.037 0.127 -0.115 0.036 8 0.155 0.072 0.039 0.034 0.123 -0.120 0.023 0.085 9 0.168 0.075 0.021 0.052 0.128 -0.114 0.033 0.108 -0.148 10 0.147 0.090 0.026 0.036 0.145 -0.107 0.036 0.119 -0.125 -0.140 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1248.49 1243.85 1244.29 1245.42 1246.87 1245.90 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1245.17 1246.88 1247.21 1244.14 1241.63 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.169 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.95 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.169 0.029 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 1 0.007 0.080 2 701012 1 0.193 0.365 3 701031 1 0.253 0.440 4 701032 1 0.319 0.531 5 701041 1 0.432 0.627 6 701042 1 0.317 0.561 7 701051 1 0.389 0.591 8 701052 1 0.195 0.408 9 701061 1 0.385 0.584 10 701062 1 0.019 0.110 11 701081 1 0.289 0.491 12 701082 1 0.233 0.427 13 701091 1 0.130 0.330 14 701092 1 0.211 0.411 15 701101 1 0.027 0.121 16 701102 1 0.221 0.442 17 701111 1 0.310 0.543 18 701112 1 0.050 0.105 19 701121 1 0.123 0.320 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 1 0.071 0.267 21 701131 1 0.140 0.324 22 701132 1 0.258 0.458 23 701141 1 0.185 0.408 24 701142 1 0.150 0.366 25 701151 1 0.049 0.207 26 701152 1 0.091 0.295 27 701161 1 0.003 0.053 28 701162 1 0.035 0.120 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.182 0.357 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.126 0.170 MEDIAN 1 0.189 0.387 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.213 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 0.053 LOWER HINGE 1 0.061 0.237 UPPER HINGE 1 0.274 0.475 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.432 0.627 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.074 3.572 28.951 0.064 -0.001 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.094 3.581 31.594 0.083 -0.094 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.057 0.211 3.305 0.067 -0.119 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.054 0.121 3.295 0.064 -0.123 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.064 0.254 3.286 0.078 -0.159 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.057 0.433 3.966 0.060 -0.028 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.049 0.167 3.833 0.059 -0.133 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.053 -0.216 5.044 0.060 -0.075 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.107 1.604 13.891 0.093 -0.151 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.108 4.626 33.013 0.076 -0.008 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.074 1.798 16.256 0.083 -0.123 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.065 0.125 3.210 0.078 -0.106 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.072 0.384 4.043 0.079 -0.050 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.067 0.084 3.743 0.075 -0.092 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.061 0.416 5.685 0.065 -0.014 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.073 1.311 7.783 0.077 -0.094 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.076 0.706 3.961 0.086 -0.089 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.070 1.650 12.419 0.075 -0.020 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.070 2.477 19.958 0.071 -0.044 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.052 -0.019 3.160 0.059 0.005 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.074 1.849 14.673 0.071 -0.064 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.061 -0.067 3.144 0.071 -0.113 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.060 0.536 3.975 0.067 -0.069 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.072 2.866 22.083 0.065 -0.050 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.062 -0.012 3.878 0.066 0.017 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.072 0.936 7.025 0.079 -0.019 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.073 0.732 3.986 0.075 0.001 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.076 0.733 4.361 0.076 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.069 1.102 9.769 0.072 -0.065 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.014 1.283 9.309 0.009 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.070 0.621 4.202 0.073 -0.066 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.013 1.578 10.494 0.013 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.049 -0.216 3.144 0.059 -0.159 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.060 0.146 3.788 0.065 -0.110 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.074 1.724 14.282 0.078 -0.018 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.108 4.626 33.013 0.093 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.321 0.108 0.006 0.590 4.090 0.041 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.041 SERIES 701062 AND 701081 186 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 701011 AND 701012 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.389 0.305 0.322 0.367 0.283 0.235 SDEV 0.143 0.143 0.150 0.156 0.166 0.162 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.931 0.918 0.929 0.942 0.917 0.896 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.040 0.507 4.379 0.047 -0.212 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.226 0.106 -0.056 84 144 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.32 1.00 1.06 1.37 28.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.211 0.087 0.010 -0.015 0.072 -0.096 0.081 0.069 -0.074 -0.045 PACF -0.211 0.044 0.039 -0.010 0.066 -0.071 0.042 0.107 -0.046 -0.095 95% C.L. 0.132 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.143 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.047 -0.212 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.009 0.053 0.026 0.000 0.055 -0.076 0.082 0.078 -0.072 -0.070 PACF 0.009 0.052 0.025 -0.003 0.052 -0.078 0.079 0.082 -0.081 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.039 0.337 4.362 0.038 0.188 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.187 0.088 0.040 0.014 0.045 -0.053 0.080 0.075 -0.069 -0.090 PACF 0.187 0.054 0.015 -0.001 0.041 -0.072 0.101 0.052 -0.106 -0.078 95% C.L. 0.132 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.141 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.038 0.188 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES