RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl DENSITY_LATE PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 7.306 0.496 0.183 2.518 0.048 0.610 2 701012 1834 1983 150 6.466 0.787 -0.114 2.001 0.052 0.837 3 701031 1764 1983 220 6.144 0.489 -0.361 3.220 0.071 0.354 4 701032 1778 1983 206 5.967 0.487 -0.038 2.981 0.067 0.450 5 701041 1827 1983 157 6.467 0.649 0.215 2.010 0.059 0.725 6 701042 1814 1983 170 6.847 0.452 -0.076 2.602 0.054 0.459 7 701051 1829 1983 155 7.215 0.546 -0.330 3.067 0.053 0.584 8 701052 1825 1983 159 6.915 0.617 -0.635 2.985 0.057 0.693 9 701061 1797 1983 187 6.711 0.540 -0.227 3.375 0.056 0.609 10 701062 1798 1983 186 6.590 0.447 -0.333 3.023 0.059 0.430 11 701081 1756 1983 228 7.000 0.750 -0.580 2.735 0.063 0.721 12 701082 1772 1983 212 6.944 0.565 -0.052 3.168 0.064 0.529 13 701091 1775 1983 209 6.834 0.546 -0.496 3.760 0.073 0.390 14 701092 1787 1983 197 6.604 0.662 -0.254 2.636 0.071 0.622 15 701101 1787 1983 197 6.258 0.593 0.017 2.434 0.061 0.692 16 701102 1769 1983 215 6.662 0.406 -0.447 4.149 0.060 0.217 17 701111 1780 1983 204 6.612 0.433 -0.005 2.794 0.061 0.332 18 701112 1784 1983 200 6.363 0.453 -0.256 3.377 0.066 0.354 19 701121 1767 1983 217 7.114 0.437 -0.529 3.410 0.055 0.369 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 7.061 0.444 -0.376 3.344 0.057 0.345 21 701131 1806 1983 178 6.777 0.556 -0.329 2.828 0.063 0.526 22 701132 1784 1983 200 6.433 0.590 0.136 2.966 0.058 0.673 23 701141 1780 1983 204 6.778 0.687 -0.303 2.211 0.060 0.721 24 701142 1777 1983 207 6.603 0.471 -0.089 2.914 0.058 0.475 25 701151 1790 1983 194 6.005 0.583 -0.494 2.951 0.063 0.691 26 701152 1814 1983 170 6.323 0.465 0.091 3.083 0.061 0.390 27 701161 1786 1983 198 6.195 0.576 0.103 2.701 0.075 0.520 28 701162 1788 1983 196 5.454 0.640 0.517 3.194 0.065 0.724 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 6.595 0.549 -0.181 2.944 0.061 0.537 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.416 0.100 0.278 0.479 0.006 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 6.608 0.546 -0.241 2.974 0.061 0.527 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.538 0.146 0.375 0.538 0.007 0.302 MINIMUM VALUE 134 5.454 0.406 -0.635 2.001 0.048 0.217 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 6.343 0.459 -0.369 2.669 0.057 0.390 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 207 6.881 0.605 0.006 3.207 0.064 0.692 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 7.306 0.787 0.517 4.149 0.075 0.837 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.174 0.242 0.012 -0.412 2.691 -0.615 0.698 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.615 SERIES 701012 AND 701151 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.698 SERIES 701101 AND 701141 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.358 0.390 0.321 0.220 0.207 0.210 SDEV 0.269 0.215 0.208 0.227 0.211 0.204 SERR 0.030 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.922 0.942 0.929 0.888 0.880 0.881 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 6.626 0.305 0.187 3.966 0.043 0.325 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.328 -0.196 1.922 47 181 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.19 1.01 1.05 1.23 1.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.323 0.358 0.323 0.237 0.187 0.142 0.220 0.137 0.148 0.133 PACF 0.323 0.283 0.181 0.042 -0.005 -0.019 0.128 0.014 0.022 0.003 95% C.L. 0.132 0.146 0.160 0.171 0.177 0.180 0.182 0.187 0.189 0.191 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.223 0.167 0.249 0.209 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00806763 6.76185274 2 701012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01440981 5.37765884 3 701031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00205311 5.91744947 4 701032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056449 5.90856600 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01021862 5.65960789 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152848 6.71607924 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00705362 6.66517210 8 701052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00698504 6.35629082 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444234 7.12843561 10 701062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117080 6.48096037 11 701081 1 0.68368685 0.01497657 0.00000000 6.80751419 12 701082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295582 6.62888432 13 701091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00280648 7.12850857 14 701092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00541102 7.13985348 15 701101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00666257 5.59837532 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191899 6.45474911 17 701111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098939 6.51084232 18 701112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00216003 6.57973337 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028625 7.14488745 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00108539 7.18225479 21 701131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00232851 6.56828403 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00553451 5.87638187 23 701141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00716706 6.04336596 24 701142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00206208 6.38892555 25 701151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291608 6.28900814 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00218664 6.13639545 27 701161 1 1.38861644 0.01619394 0.00000000 5.78289175 28 701162 1 2.42497301 0.00529220 0.00000000 3.94847155 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.053 -0.060 2.584 0.047 0.328 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.073 0.228 2.624 0.052 0.581 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.077 -0.444 3.293 0.071 0.316 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.081 -0.029 3.057 0.066 0.447 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.070 -0.086 2.881 0.059 0.471 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.065 -0.131 2.677 0.054 0.444 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.062 -0.204 2.955 0.053 0.425 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.076 -0.659 2.838 0.056 0.599 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.072 -0.139 3.041 0.055 0.494 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.067 -0.254 2.902 0.059 0.422 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.105 -0.301 2.720 0.063 0.708 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.077 -0.129 3.003 0.063 0.471 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.077 -0.138 3.428 0.073 0.338 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.090 -0.072 2.606 0.070 0.511 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.071 -0.418 2.913 0.061 0.445 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.058 -0.515 4.089 0.060 0.135 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.065 -0.022 2.928 0.061 0.318 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.069 -0.123 3.506 0.066 0.300 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.061 -0.507 3.344 0.055 0.368 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.062 -0.235 3.165 0.057 0.321 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.080 -0.352 2.808 0.063 0.497 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.076 0.027 3.045 0.057 0.528 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.079 -0.207 2.655 0.060 0.542 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.069 0.002 2.980 0.058 0.438 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.093 -0.452 2.738 0.063 0.651 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.071 -0.324 3.618 0.061 0.348 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.074 0.136 3.985 0.074 0.240 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.083 0.376 3.055 0.064 0.483 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.073 -0.180 3.051 0.061 0.435 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.011 0.233 0.389 0.006 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.073 -0.138 2.967 0.060 0.444 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.012 0.293 0.456 0.007 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.053 -0.659 2.584 0.047 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.066 -0.338 2.773 0.057 0.333 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.078 -0.045 3.229 0.064 0.504 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.105 0.376 4.089 0.074 0.708 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.045 0.102 2.767 0.047 0.105 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.058 0.255 2.955 0.052 0.327 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.074 -0.426 3.317 0.071 0.256 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.071 -0.176 3.336 0.066 0.285 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.065 0.128 3.223 0.059 0.375 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.056 0.083 3.091 0.054 0.260 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.058 -0.083 2.946 0.053 0.355 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.064 -0.579 3.332 0.056 0.443 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.067 -0.150 2.789 0.055 0.409 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.062 -0.069 2.870 0.058 0.319 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.079 -0.448 3.248 0.063 0.491 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.073 -0.129 2.991 0.063 0.410 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.066 0.078 3.000 0.073 0.115 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.080 -0.038 2.892 0.070 0.389 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.059 -0.230 3.195 0.061 0.202 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.057 -0.552 4.175 0.060 0.081 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.057 -0.202 2.745 0.061 0.094 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.063 0.019 3.471 0.066 0.154 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.056 -0.281 3.652 0.055 0.230 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.056 -0.053 4.453 0.057 0.153 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.066 -0.204 3.102 0.062 0.241 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.068 0.133 3.486 0.057 0.411 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.063 -0.223 2.599 0.060 0.282 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.064 0.183 3.624 0.058 0.334 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.064 -0.316 3.306 0.063 0.233 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.061 -0.241 3.944 0.061 0.119 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.072 0.049 3.994 0.074 0.192 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.081 0.400 3.125 0.064 0.455 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.064 -0.106 3.272 0.061 0.276 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.008 0.238 0.452 0.006 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.064 -0.106 3.209 0.060 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.012 0.316 0.528 0.007 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.999 0.045 -0.579 2.599 0.047 0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.058 -0.236 2.951 0.057 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.070 0.081 3.479 0.064 0.382 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.081 0.400 4.453 0.074 0.491 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.251 0.113 0.006 -0.138 2.718 -0.102 0.532 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.102 SERIES 701012 AND 701121 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.532 SERIES 701151 AND 701152 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.390 0.392 0.307 0.261 0.241 0.231 SDEV 0.249 0.180 0.164 0.175 0.174 0.173 SERR 0.028 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.931 0.943 0.925 0.908 0.899 0.894 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.036 0.021 3.146 0.042 -0.015 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.044 0.022 0.031 63 165 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.08 0.15 1.00 1.03 1.19 2.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.015 0.074 0.097 -0.024 0.005 -0.095 0.085 -0.047 -0.099 -0.066 PACF -0.015 0.073 0.100 -0.027 -0.011 -0.102 0.089 -0.031 -0.096 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.138 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.013 0.046 0.128 -0.073 -0.007 -0.073 0.063 -0.013 -0.075 -0.034 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.013 2 -0.012 0.046 3 -0.018 0.048 0.129 4 -0.009 0.051 0.128 -0.073 5 -0.010 0.054 0.129 -0.073 -0.021 6 -0.012 0.048 0.140 -0.068 -0.022 -0.084 7 -0.005 0.050 0.145 -0.080 -0.026 -0.083 0.084 8 -0.004 0.049 0.145 -0.080 -0.025 -0.083 0.084 -0.006 9 -0.005 0.055 0.140 -0.082 -0.030 -0.074 0.087 -0.007 -0.065 10 -0.009 0.054 0.146 -0.087 -0.032 -0.079 0.096 -0.003 -0.066 -0.068 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1168.01 1169.98 1171.49 1169.66 1170.45 1172.35 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1172.72 1173.12 1175.11 1176.13 1177.08 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 0 0.011 2 701012 0 0.109 3 701031 0 0.066 4 701032 0 0.083 5 701041 0 0.141 6 701042 0 0.069 7 701051 0 0.132 8 701052 0 0.197 9 701061 0 0.172 10 701062 0 0.104 11 701081 0 0.241 12 701082 0 0.169 13 701091 0 0.013 14 701092 0 0.152 15 701101 0 0.041 16 701102 0 0.007 17 701111 0 0.009 18 701112 0 0.024 19 701121 0 0.056 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 0 0.023 21 701131 0 0.059 22 701132 0 0.170 23 701141 0 0.080 24 701142 0 0.116 25 701151 0 0.057 26 701152 0 0.014 27 701161 0 0.037 28 701162 0 0.210 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.092 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.069 MEDIAN 0 0.074 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.007 LOWER HINGE 0 0.030 UPPER HINGE 0 0.147 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.241 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.045 0.102 2.767 0.047 0.105 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.058 0.256 2.955 0.052 0.327 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.074 -0.426 3.317 0.071 0.256 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.071 -0.176 3.336 0.066 0.285 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.065 0.128 3.223 0.059 0.375 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.056 0.083 3.091 0.054 0.260 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.058 -0.083 2.946 0.053 0.355 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.064 -0.579 3.332 0.056 0.443 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.067 -0.150 2.789 0.055 0.409 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.062 -0.069 2.870 0.058 0.319 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.079 -0.448 3.248 0.063 0.491 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.073 -0.129 2.991 0.063 0.410 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.066 0.078 3.000 0.073 0.115 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.080 -0.038 2.892 0.070 0.389 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.059 -0.230 3.195 0.061 0.202 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.057 -0.552 4.175 0.060 0.081 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.057 -0.202 2.745 0.061 0.094 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.063 0.019 3.471 0.066 0.154 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.056 -0.281 3.652 0.055 0.230 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.056 -0.053 4.453 0.057 0.153 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.066 -0.204 3.102 0.062 0.241 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.068 0.133 3.486 0.057 0.411 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.063 -0.223 2.599 0.060 0.282 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.064 0.183 3.624 0.058 0.334 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.064 -0.316 3.306 0.063 0.233 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.061 -0.241 3.944 0.061 0.119 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.072 0.049 3.994 0.074 0.192 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.081 0.400 3.125 0.064 0.455 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.064 -0.106 3.272 0.061 0.276 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.008 0.238 0.452 0.006 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.064 -0.106 3.209 0.060 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.012 0.316 0.528 0.007 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.045 -0.579 2.599 0.047 0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.058 -0.236 2.951 0.057 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.070 0.081 3.479 0.064 0.382 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.081 0.400 4.453 0.074 0.491 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.251 0.113 0.006 -0.138 2.718 -0.102 0.532 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.102 SERIES 701012 AND 701121 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.532 SERIES 701151 AND 701152 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.390 0.392 0.307 0.261 0.241 0.231 SDEV 0.249 0.180 0.164 0.175 0.174 0.173 SERR 0.028 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.931 0.943 0.925 0.908 0.899 0.894 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.036 0.020 3.146 0.042 -0.016 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.045 0.022 0.031 62 166 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.08 0.16 1.00 1.04 1.19 2.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 0.074 0.097 -0.025 0.005 -0.095 0.085 -0.047 -0.099 -0.066 PACF -0.016 0.074 0.100 -0.027 -0.011 -0.103 0.089 -0.031 -0.096 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.138 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.036 0.020 3.146 0.042 -0.016 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 0.074 0.097 -0.025 0.005 -0.095 0.085 -0.047 -0.099 -0.066 PACF -0.016 0.074 0.100 -0.027 -0.011 -0.103 0.089 -0.031 -0.096 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.138 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.78 MINUTES