RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl WIDTH_RING PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.967 0.301 0.771 4.007 0.201 0.667 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.908 0.276 0.578 3.275 0.183 0.642 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.699 0.252 1.113 4.353 0.189 0.719 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.656 0.231 0.978 5.153 0.154 0.807 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.677 0.232 0.056 2.790 0.190 0.775 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.594 0.202 0.024 2.456 0.159 0.821 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.121 0.501 0.916 3.891 0.143 0.874 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.679 0.204 -0.345 2.494 0.140 0.847 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.591 0.190 -0.023 2.562 0.187 0.771 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.853 0.248 0.289 2.676 0.183 0.699 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.813 0.383 0.524 2.565 0.172 0.893 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.742 0.267 0.482 3.300 0.176 0.790 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.670 0.294 1.265 5.401 0.144 0.899 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.541 0.180 0.668 3.219 0.147 0.838 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.984 0.371 0.273 3.022 0.162 0.838 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.149 0.545 0.105 2.046 0.174 0.915 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.762 0.261 0.702 3.811 0.201 0.734 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.672 0.303 1.813 8.929 0.203 0.817 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.653 0.351 0.993 4.293 0.172 0.920 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.611 0.281 1.407 6.371 0.150 0.897 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.266 0.422 0.311 2.351 0.172 0.776 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.048 0.472 0.050 2.102 0.162 0.879 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.630 0.210 0.878 3.635 0.212 0.651 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.582 0.161 -0.428 3.499 0.200 0.676 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.650 0.166 0.607 3.834 0.171 0.617 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.708 0.243 -0.311 2.948 0.205 0.761 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.778 0.343 0.918 3.824 0.221 0.781 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.635 0.303 0.740 2.773 0.210 0.863 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.773 0.293 0.548 3.628 0.178 0.792 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.193 0.100 0.546 1.458 0.023 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.689 0.271 0.593 3.288 0.175 0.799 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.238 0.126 0.837 1.329 0.040 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.541 0.161 -0.428 2.046 0.140 0.617 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.643 0.221 0.081 2.620 0.161 0.726 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 207 0.880 0.347 0.917 3.949 0.201 0.868 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.266 0.545 1.813 8.929 0.221 0.920 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.355 0.270 0.014 -0.162 2.233 -0.395 0.940 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.395 SERIES 701051 AND 701081 155 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.940 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.430 0.461 0.381 0.362 0.269 0.301 SDEV 0.216 0.232 0.245 0.239 0.286 0.254 SERR 0.024 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.941 0.956 0.945 0.941 0.912 0.924 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.722 0.190 0.533 3.910 0.131 0.786 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.671 0.341 0.009 151 77 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.15 1.01 1.17 2.32 38.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.782 0.697 0.638 0.593 0.565 0.542 0.502 0.499 0.432 0.430 PACF 0.782 0.218 0.113 0.073 0.075 0.062 -0.010 0.089 -0.112 0.088 95% C.L. 0.132 0.198 0.237 0.265 0.288 0.306 0.323 0.336 0.349 0.358 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.648 0.569 0.154 0.135 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00205556 0.82789135 2 701012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192505 0.76272571 3 701031 1 0.33696473 0.04907484 0.00000000 0.66859561 4 701032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00215226 0.87853611 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235985 0.86381674 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142818 0.71599162 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043508 1.08716047 8 701052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218426 0.85354590 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00156429 0.73784542 10 701062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070805 0.78637838 11 701081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022930 0.83906138 12 701082 1 0.41319931 0.01306544 0.00000000 0.60303509 13 701091 1 0.97019601 0.01327173 0.00000000 0.34415734 14 701092 1 0.54464740 0.00895128 0.00000000 0.28672928 15 701101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00526674 1.50567126 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00737226 1.94555318 17 701111 1 0.80817914 0.00776133 0.00000000 0.35762244 18 701112 1 1.40396988 0.06602547 0.00000000 0.56915432 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00379257 1.06629288 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00271331 0.90940118 21 701131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00462316 1.67984009 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00629188 1.68068445 23 701141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045962 0.58298707 24 701142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103109 0.68882793 25 701151 1 0.34472877 0.10400423 0.00000000 0.63425177 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00323083 0.98411834 27 701161 1 1.04722989 0.01218322 0.00000000 0.38521048 28 701162 1 0.96162075 0.01653658 0.00000000 0.35180804 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.999 0.294 0.635 3.811 0.200 0.640 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.297 0.847 3.791 0.182 0.637 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.354 1.331 5.258 0.188 0.717 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.997 0.286 0.964 4.457 0.153 0.747 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.998 0.325 0.650 4.126 0.188 0.725 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.997 0.316 0.113 3.047 0.158 0.795 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.443 0.878 3.918 0.143 0.866 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.999 0.277 0.002 2.506 0.139 0.804 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.298 0.283 2.932 0.187 0.711 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.285 0.260 2.730 0.182 0.693 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.473 0.559 2.631 0.171 0.888 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.332 0.304 2.789 0.175 0.750 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.238 0.126 2.662 0.143 0.725 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.238 0.405 2.934 0.147 0.698 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.997 0.236 0.039 2.983 0.161 0.632 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.987 0.255 -0.100 4.100 0.174 0.646 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.253 0.514 3.241 0.200 0.522 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.001 0.289 -0.629 3.533 0.201 0.661 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.974 0.351 1.386 6.218 0.171 0.840 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.989 0.328 1.724 8.459 0.148 0.832 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.996 0.265 0.267 2.321 0.171 0.665 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.983 0.277 0.112 2.230 0.162 0.736 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.325 0.671 3.284 0.211 0.643 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.269 -0.119 3.117 0.199 0.639 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.243 0.507 3.867 0.170 0.602 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.995 0.292 0.312 4.196 0.204 0.611 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.999 0.302 0.901 4.614 0.220 0.520 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.328 1.247 6.135 0.209 0.688 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 0.997 0.302 0.507 3.782 0.177 0.701 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.006 0.055 0.524 1.382 0.023 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.999 0.293 0.456 3.409 0.175 0.695 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.003 0.059 0.743 1.300 0.040 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.974 0.236 -0.629 2.230 0.139 0.520 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.997 0.267 0.119 2.860 0.160 0.640 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.326 0.862 4.161 0.200 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.001 0.473 1.724 8.459 0.220 0.888 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.995 0.218 0.086 3.624 0.200 0.395 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.992 0.235 0.518 3.458 0.181 0.476 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.992 0.304 0.965 3.931 0.188 0.640 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.998 0.265 0.985 4.764 0.153 0.690 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.997 0.302 0.529 3.964 0.189 0.687 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.994 0.248 0.444 3.173 0.158 0.677 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.983 0.249 0.563 4.392 0.145 0.650 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.997 0.257 0.009 2.804 0.139 0.772 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.997 0.259 0.133 3.154 0.187 0.622 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.998 0.224 -0.018 3.653 0.182 0.503 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.966 0.317 0.290 2.748 0.171 0.786 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.992 0.287 0.269 2.959 0.175 0.694 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.225 0.109 2.640 0.143 0.693 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.227 0.251 2.875 0.147 0.673 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.997 0.226 0.254 3.383 0.161 0.599 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.998 0.248 0.369 5.937 0.173 0.597 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.997 0.234 0.471 3.254 0.200 0.443 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.988 0.228 -0.323 3.085 0.200 0.486 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.994 0.257 0.813 4.493 0.171 0.651 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.995 0.239 1.236 6.594 0.148 0.664 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.228 0.359 2.830 0.171 0.561 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.998 0.231 0.017 2.548 0.162 0.616 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.996 0.296 0.742 4.200 0.211 0.603 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.994 0.226 -0.054 3.514 0.199 0.460 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.998 0.231 0.493 3.521 0.170 0.561 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.996 0.271 0.671 5.492 0.204 0.542 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.997 0.276 0.756 4.069 0.220 0.453 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.993 0.291 0.940 5.352 0.209 0.615 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 0.994 0.254 0.424 3.800 0.177 0.600 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.007 0.029 0.372 1.042 0.023 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.996 0.248 0.406 3.517 0.174 0.615 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.004 0.046 0.586 1.274 0.040 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.966 0.218 -0.323 2.548 0.139 0.395 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.993 0.228 0.121 3.022 0.159 0.523 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 0.998 0.274 0.707 4.296 0.199 0.675 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 0.999 0.317 1.236 6.594 0.220 0.786 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.319 0.140 0.007 0.291 3.638 -0.078 0.851 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.078 SERIES 701052 AND 701162 159 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.851 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.476 0.513 0.378 0.388 0.333 0.295 SDEV 0.167 0.224 0.201 0.192 0.219 0.223 SERR 0.019 0.015 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.951 0.964 0.944 0.947 0.933 0.921 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.986 0.147 0.019 3.267 0.122 0.474 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.304 0.138 0.055 80 148 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.24 1.00 1.04 1.29 2.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.472 0.335 0.296 0.186 0.120 0.117 0.009 0.049 -0.064 -0.067 PACF 0.472 0.144 0.122 -0.024 -0.018 0.035 -0.097 0.065 -0.139 0.002 95% C.L. 0.132 0.159 0.171 0.180 0.183 0.185 0.186 0.186 0.186 0.187 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.251 0.389 0.092 0.121 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.499 0.356 0.309 0.211 0.113 0.115 -0.003 0.030 -0.057 -0.098 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.499 2 0.428 0.143 3 0.412 0.093 0.116 4 0.413 0.094 0.120 -0.009 5 0.412 0.101 0.125 0.014 -0.056 6 0.415 0.100 0.119 0.010 -0.074 0.044 7 0.420 0.091 0.121 0.024 -0.063 0.093 -0.119 8 0.428 0.085 0.125 0.022 -0.071 0.087 -0.147 0.067 9 0.435 0.069 0.134 0.014 -0.068 0.101 -0.137 0.115 -0.112 10 0.430 0.074 0.128 0.019 -0.071 0.101 -0.131 0.118 -0.091 -0.048 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1838.83 1775.39 1772.71 1771.64 1773.62 1774.89 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1776.45 1775.22 1776.20 1775.33 1776.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.412 0.093 0.116 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 137.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.412 0.263 0.262 0.180 0.129 0.100 0.074 0.055 0.041 0.0305 0.023 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0016 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 3 0.180 0.377 -0.024 0.155 2 701012 3 0.301 0.386 0.032 0.237 3 701031 3 0.446 0.505 0.134 0.098 4 701032 3 0.486 0.635 0.024 0.080 5 701041 3 0.500 0.632 0.002 0.123 6 701042 3 0.479 0.786 -0.195 0.075 7 701051 3 0.485 0.585 0.062 0.100 8 701052 3 0.610 0.654 0.161 -0.008 9 701061 3 0.415 0.573 0.021 0.086 10 701062 3 0.269 0.472 0.055 0.019 11 701081 3 0.638 0.676 -0.010 0.180 12 701082 3 0.505 0.587 0.043 0.144 13 701091 3 0.495 0.669 0.123 -0.114 14 701092 3 0.465 0.628 0.121 -0.070 15 701101 3 0.399 0.476 0.206 0.007 16 701102 3 0.385 0.613 -0.095 0.146 17 701111 3 0.209 0.416 0.035 0.063 18 701112 3 0.341 0.304 0.153 0.263 19 701121 3 0.448 0.520 0.207 -0.006 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 3 0.450 0.609 0.054 0.044 21 701131 3 0.338 0.498 0.151 -0.045 22 701132 3 0.391 0.549 0.111 -0.003 23 701141 3 0.372 0.563 0.035 0.054 24 701142 3 0.269 0.340 0.246 0.019 25 701151 3 0.332 0.510 0.027 0.107 26 701152 3 0.297 0.578 -0.066 0.001 27 701161 3 0.230 0.376 0.118 0.076 28 701162 3 0.424 0.440 0.228 0.067 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.398 0.534 0.070 0.068 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.116 0.101 0.086 MEDIAN 3 0.407 0.556 0.055 0.071 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.165 0.164 0.120 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.180 0.304 -0.195 -0.114 LOWER HINGE 3 0.316 0.456 0.022 0.004 UPPER HINGE 3 0.482 0.620 0.142 0.115 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.638 0.786 0.246 0.263 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.198 0.305 3.564 0.225 0.006 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.198 1.159 7.225 0.202 0.031 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.228 0.800 4.668 0.233 0.008 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.190 0.401 5.758 0.198 0.004 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.213 0.457 2.902 0.230 0.002 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.179 0.695 4.206 0.197 -0.004 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.180 1.172 6.221 0.179 0.033 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.161 0.414 3.829 0.177 -0.001 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.201 0.038 3.879 0.223 0.015 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.192 -0.244 4.068 0.211 0.000 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.191 0.010 4.357 0.221 0.008 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.202 0.434 3.100 0.226 -0.002 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.160 -0.019 2.726 0.181 -0.005 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.166 0.214 3.305 0.182 -0.008 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.176 0.025 3.541 0.196 -0.004 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.193 0.050 4.721 0.210 -0.006 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.208 0.251 2.747 0.236 -0.004 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.185 0.004 2.805 0.213 -0.003 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.191 -0.069 3.887 0.206 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.177 0.478 4.778 0.195 0.001 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.186 -0.028 2.971 0.212 -0.007 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.181 -0.052 3.094 0.208 0.001 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.234 0.432 3.678 0.255 -0.002 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.194 -0.287 3.828 0.226 -0.004 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.189 0.369 4.379 0.207 -0.001 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.228 0.662 6.221 0.248 0.000 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.243 0.542 4.114 0.266 0.002 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.221 0.462 4.267 0.244 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.195 0.310 4.101 0.215 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.021 0.372 1.133 0.023 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.192 0.337 3.883 0.211 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.025 0.463 1.320 0.031 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.160 -0.287 2.726 0.177 -0.008 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.180 0.007 3.203 0.197 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.205 0.470 4.523 0.228 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.243 1.172 7.225 0.266 0.033 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.392 0.105 0.005 1.043 5.004 0.170 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.170 SERIES 701052 AND 701082 159 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 701101 AND 701102 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.463 0.447 0.412 0.410 0.437 0.418 SDEV 0.162 0.154 0.141 0.140 0.154 0.144 SERR 0.018 0.011 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.948 0.954 0.951 0.951 0.956 0.953 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.996 0.126 -0.073 3.014 0.151 -0.124 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.201 0.076 0.061 79 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.44 1.00 1.08 1.52 3.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.124 -0.055 0.039 -0.026 -0.041 0.073 -0.103 0.107 -0.084 -0.017 PACF -0.124 -0.072 0.023 -0.023 -0.044 0.060 -0.092 0.096 -0.081 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.132 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.139 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.124 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 -0.021 -0.042 0.064 -0.089 0.091 -0.085 -0.026 PACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 -0.021 -0.042 0.064 -0.090 0.092 -0.091 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.996 0.144 0.038 3.327 0.117 0.483 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.481 0.329 0.273 0.161 0.097 0.094 -0.008 0.034 -0.071 -0.079 PACF 0.481 0.127 0.097 -0.033 -0.019 0.036 -0.095 0.067 -0.134 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.132 0.160 0.172 0.179 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.252 0.410 0.084 0.096 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES