RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA083X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA083X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 701 1 Kathleen Lake, 30km sźdl DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCMA - 701 2 Canada Black Spruce 780 6025-13710 1756 1983 - 701 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 701122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 0.852 0.056 -0.046 2.345 0.044 0.652 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.745 0.099 -0.122 1.952 0.055 0.858 3 701031 1764 1983 220 0.703 0.059 -0.557 3.433 0.071 0.404 4 701032 1778 1983 206 0.683 0.060 -0.083 2.964 0.072 0.484 5 701041 1827 1983 157 0.736 0.075 0.304 2.354 0.061 0.689 6 701042 1814 1983 170 0.772 0.057 -0.150 2.678 0.056 0.538 7 701051 1829 1983 155 0.843 0.064 -0.719 3.550 0.055 0.554 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.792 0.077 -0.750 3.210 0.058 0.731 9 701061 1797 1983 187 0.766 0.061 -0.804 3.771 0.060 0.561 10 701062 1798 1983 186 0.763 0.058 -0.196 2.900 0.062 0.459 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.811 0.097 -0.708 2.773 0.065 0.761 12 701082 1772 1983 212 0.806 0.067 -0.173 3.145 0.064 0.556 13 701091 1775 1983 209 0.785 0.067 -0.650 3.964 0.071 0.478 14 701092 1787 1983 197 0.747 0.080 -0.287 2.799 0.072 0.664 15 701101 1787 1983 197 0.722 0.067 -0.101 2.565 0.061 0.662 16 701102 1769 1983 215 0.778 0.049 -0.893 4.831 0.065 0.141 17 701111 1780 1983 204 0.764 0.053 -0.238 2.824 0.065 0.275 18 701112 1784 1983 200 0.731 0.058 -0.369 3.237 0.069 0.408 19 701121 1767 1983 217 0.810 0.058 -0.656 3.671 0.056 0.493 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 0.805 0.057 -0.348 3.415 0.058 0.463 21 701131 1806 1983 178 0.797 0.069 -0.605 3.061 0.067 0.519 22 701132 1784 1983 200 0.742 0.065 0.056 3.063 0.063 0.595 23 701141 1780 1983 204 0.770 0.084 -0.314 2.274 0.066 0.727 24 701142 1777 1983 207 0.748 0.057 -0.106 2.992 0.061 0.498 25 701151 1790 1983 194 0.685 0.072 -0.637 3.160 0.061 0.737 26 701152 1814 1983 170 0.724 0.058 -0.169 3.216 0.066 0.423 27 701161 1786 1983 198 0.707 0.072 0.124 2.698 0.074 0.591 28 701162 1788 1983 196 0.616 0.084 0.450 3.155 0.071 0.756 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1756 TO 1983 228 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.757 0.067 -0.312 3.072 0.063 0.560 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.051 0.013 0.344 0.579 0.007 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.763 0.065 -0.262 3.062 0.063 0.555 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.067 0.016 0.540 0.590 0.009 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.616 0.049 -0.893 1.952 0.044 0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.727 0.058 -0.644 2.736 0.059 0.470 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 207 0.794 0.074 -0.104 3.326 0.068 0.677 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 0.852 0.099 0.450 4.831 0.074 0.858 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.184 0.253 0.013 -0.472 2.717 -0.625 0.706 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.625 SERIES 701012 AND 701151 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.706 SERIES 701161 AND 701162 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.371 0.421 0.312 0.242 0.231 0.238 SDEV 0.289 0.207 0.213 0.224 0.216 0.212 SERR 0.033 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.926 0.949 0.926 0.899 0.894 0.898 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 0.762 0.037 0.295 4.238 0.046 0.295 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.414 -0.257 0.271 61 167 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.17 1.01 1.05 1.21 2.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 34. 134. 174. 208. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.294 0.348 0.296 0.227 0.174 0.127 0.207 0.121 0.122 0.083 PACF 0.294 0.287 0.166 0.052 -0.002 -0.023 0.121 0.013 0.003 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.132 0.143 0.158 0.167 0.172 0.175 0.177 0.181 0.183 0.184 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.204 0.150 0.256 0.196 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088036 0.79251599 2 701012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00180179 0.60876513 3 701031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023545 0.67734623 4 701032 1 0.10372634 0.08787077 0.00000000 0.67747903 5 701041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111561 0.64779031 6 701042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013202 0.76047683 7 701051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079743 0.78070378 8 701052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076131 0.73117030 9 701061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049956 0.81310850 10 701062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022268 0.74245918 11 701081 1 0.09201468 0.01090138 0.00000000 0.77730477 12 701082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032884 0.77125233 13 701091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043045 0.83002990 14 701092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077253 0.82302910 15 701101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063956 0.65886670 16 701102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008184 0.78688544 17 701111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002445 0.76117069 18 701112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034775 0.76554924 19 701121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027255 0.83952379 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025101 0.83354360 21 701131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006290 0.79088748 22 701132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047448 0.69436431 23 701141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00092345 0.67573845 24 701142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027798 0.71949625 25 701151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037062 0.72123820 26 701152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016193 0.70974314 27 701161 1 0.18825333 0.01729305 0.00000000 0.65444148 28 701162 1 0.30673066 0.00604071 0.00000000 0.43693820 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.052 -0.276 2.784 0.044 0.427 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.081 0.211 2.816 0.055 0.636 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.081 -0.591 3.473 0.071 0.373 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.084 -0.068 3.079 0.072 0.446 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.075 -0.066 2.593 0.061 0.471 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.073 -0.182 2.708 0.055 0.531 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.064 -0.552 3.227 0.055 0.400 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.087 -0.779 2.972 0.057 0.678 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.072 -0.662 3.364 0.060 0.432 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.074 -0.164 2.722 0.061 0.438 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.118 -0.402 2.698 0.065 0.749 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.080 -0.239 3.057 0.064 0.508 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.079 -0.047 3.697 0.071 0.402 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.091 -0.134 2.972 0.072 0.505 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.076 -0.521 3.067 0.061 0.487 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.062 -0.903 4.948 0.065 0.133 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.069 -0.239 2.839 0.065 0.273 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.074 -0.143 3.228 0.068 0.329 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.068 -0.612 3.325 0.056 0.447 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.069 -0.177 3.068 0.057 0.410 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.086 -0.611 3.078 0.066 0.514 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.079 -0.088 3.107 0.062 0.500 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.082 -0.199 2.633 0.065 0.527 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.073 -0.080 2.884 0.061 0.456 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.101 -0.559 2.819 0.061 0.698 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.078 -0.456 3.622 0.065 0.406 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.078 0.160 4.269 0.074 0.280 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.093 0.289 2.983 0.071 0.510 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.079 -0.289 3.144 0.063 0.463 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.013 0.299 0.509 0.007 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.078 -0.219 3.062 0.063 0.452 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.011 0.472 0.459 0.009 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.052 -0.903 2.593 0.044 0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.073 -0.555 2.817 0.059 0.404 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.083 -0.084 3.277 0.067 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.118 0.289 4.948 0.074 0.749 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 701011 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 701012 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 701031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 701032 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 701041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 701042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 701051 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 701052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 701061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 701062 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 701081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 701082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 701091 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 701092 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 701101 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 701102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 701111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 701112 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 701121 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 701122 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 701131 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 701132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 701141 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 701142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 701151 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 701152 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 701161 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 701162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.044 -0.234 2.804 0.044 0.208 2 701012 1834 1983 150 0.999 0.061 0.282 3.370 0.054 0.372 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.078 -0.567 3.471 0.071 0.329 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.077 -0.080 3.087 0.072 0.342 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.070 0.007 2.850 0.061 0.402 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.061 0.077 3.100 0.055 0.319 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.059 -0.425 3.318 0.055 0.309 8 701052 1825 1983 159 0.999 0.071 -0.511 3.417 0.058 0.539 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.068 -0.498 3.363 0.060 0.350 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.066 -0.052 2.700 0.061 0.303 11 701081 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.088 -0.518 3.441 0.065 0.554 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.077 -0.252 2.986 0.064 0.472 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.068 0.132 3.289 0.071 0.194 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.081 -0.085 3.395 0.072 0.382 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.062 -0.237 3.041 0.061 0.237 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.061 -0.805 4.808 0.065 0.085 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.061 -0.203 2.877 0.065 0.067 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.067 0.046 3.117 0.069 0.178 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.058 -0.415 4.094 0.056 0.213 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.059 -0.042 4.640 0.057 0.186 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.067 -0.282 3.229 0.066 0.183 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.071 0.038 3.446 0.062 0.378 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.067 -0.175 2.514 0.066 0.281 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.065 0.190 3.726 0.061 0.308 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.068 -0.457 3.884 0.061 0.308 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.067 -0.298 4.160 0.065 0.168 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.076 0.087 4.343 0.074 0.238 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.090 0.314 3.030 0.071 0.480 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.068 -0.177 3.411 0.063 0.299 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.010 0.280 0.570 0.007 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.067 -0.189 3.340 0.063 0.308 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.012 0.463 0.563 0.009 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 134 0.998 0.044 -0.805 2.514 0.044 0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.061 -0.420 3.035 0.059 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.073 0.042 3.598 0.067 0.375 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.090 0.314 4.808 0.074 0.554 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.270 0.119 0.006 -0.110 2.825 -0.037 0.579 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.037 SERIES 701012 AND 701151 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.579 SERIES 701111 AND 701112 200 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.409 0.411 0.322 0.278 0.269 0.259 SDEV 0.271 0.186 0.164 0.182 0.178 0.179 SERR 0.031 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.936 0.947 0.929 0.915 0.912 0.907 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.040 -0.007 3.136 0.045 0.012 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.050 -0.024 0.078 69 159 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.26 1.00 1.03 1.29 57.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 0.077 0.090 -0.022 0.004 -0.084 0.082 -0.028 -0.096 -0.064 PACF 0.012 0.077 0.088 -0.029 -0.010 -0.089 0.090 -0.017 -0.095 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.005 0.044 0.129 -0.047 -0.006 -0.052 0.064 -0.001 -0.074 -0.021 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.005 2 0.005 0.044 3 -0.001 0.043 0.129 4 0.006 0.046 0.129 -0.051 5 0.005 0.048 0.129 -0.051 -0.017 6 0.004 0.044 0.138 -0.047 -0.017 -0.066 7 0.009 0.046 0.142 -0.058 -0.020 -0.066 0.081 8 0.008 0.046 0.142 -0.058 -0.021 -0.066 0.081 0.004 9 0.009 0.052 0.137 -0.060 -0.025 -0.056 0.084 0.005 -0.068 10 0.006 0.052 0.141 -0.062 -0.026 -0.059 0.090 0.007 -0.068 -0.047 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1207.84 1209.83 1211.39 1209.59 1211.00 1212.93 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1213.95 1214.46 1216.46 1217.38 1218.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 701011 0 0.044 2 701012 0 0.139 3 701031 0 0.109 4 701032 0 0.119 5 701041 0 0.165 6 701042 0 0.105 7 701051 0 0.101 8 701052 0 0.293 9 701061 0 0.127 10 701062 0 0.093 11 701081 0 0.307 12 701082 0 0.223 13 701091 0 0.038 14 701092 0 0.148 15 701101 0 0.056 16 701102 0 0.007 17 701111 0 0.005 18 701112 0 0.032 19 701121 0 0.048 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 701122 0 0.035 21 701131 0 0.034 22 701132 0 0.145 23 701141 0 0.079 24 701142 0 0.100 25 701151 0 0.099 26 701152 0 0.028 27 701161 0 0.057 28 701162 0 0.234 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.106 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 MEDIAN 0 0.100 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.005 LOWER HINGE 0 0.041 UPPER HINGE 0 0.142 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.307 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 701011 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.044 -0.234 2.804 0.044 0.208 2 701012 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.061 0.282 3.370 0.054 0.372 3 701031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.078 -0.567 3.471 0.071 0.329 4 701032 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.077 -0.080 3.087 0.072 0.342 5 701041 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.070 0.007 2.850 0.061 0.402 6 701042 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.061 0.077 3.100 0.055 0.319 7 701051 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.059 -0.425 3.318 0.055 0.309 8 701052 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.071 -0.511 3.417 0.057 0.539 9 701061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.068 -0.498 3.363 0.060 0.350 10 701062 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.066 -0.052 2.700 0.061 0.303 11 701081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.088 -0.518 3.441 0.065 0.554 12 701082 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.077 -0.252 2.986 0.064 0.472 13 701091 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.068 0.132 3.289 0.071 0.194 14 701092 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.081 -0.085 3.395 0.072 0.382 15 701101 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.062 -0.237 3.041 0.061 0.237 16 701102 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.061 -0.805 4.808 0.065 0.085 17 701111 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.061 -0.203 2.877 0.065 0.067 18 701112 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.067 0.046 3.117 0.068 0.178 19 701121 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.058 -0.415 4.094 0.056 0.213 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 701122 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.059 -0.042 4.640 0.057 0.186 21 701131 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.067 -0.282 3.229 0.066 0.183 22 701132 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.071 0.038 3.446 0.062 0.378 23 701141 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.067 -0.175 2.514 0.066 0.281 24 701142 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.065 0.190 3.726 0.061 0.308 25 701151 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.068 -0.457 3.884 0.061 0.308 26 701152 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.067 -0.298 4.160 0.065 0.168 27 701161 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.076 0.087 4.343 0.074 0.238 28 701162 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.090 0.314 3.030 0.071 0.480 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 192 1.000 0.068 -0.177 3.411 0.063 0.299 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.010 0.280 0.570 0.007 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.067 -0.189 3.340 0.063 0.308 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.012 0.463 0.563 0.009 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.044 -0.805 2.514 0.044 0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.061 -0.420 3.035 0.059 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 1.000 0.073 0.042 3.598 0.067 0.375 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.090 0.314 4.808 0.074 0.554 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.270 0.119 0.006 -0.110 2.825 -0.037 0.579 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.037 SERIES 701012 AND 701151 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.579 SERIES 701111 AND 701112 200 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 210. 351. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.409 0.411 0.322 0.278 0.269 0.259 SDEV 0.271 0.186 0.164 0.182 0.178 0.179 SERR 0.031 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.936 0.947 0.929 0.915 0.912 0.907 NSS 21.2 25.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 1.001 0.040 -0.010 3.129 0.045 0.012 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.053 -0.026 0.080 69 159 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.26 1.00 1.03 1.29 26.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 0.077 0.089 -0.022 0.004 -0.084 0.082 -0.027 -0.095 -0.063 PACF 0.012 0.077 0.088 -0.030 -0.010 -0.089 0.090 -0.016 -0.095 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1983 228 1.001 0.040 -0.010 3.129 0.045 0.012 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 0.077 0.089 -0.022 0.004 -0.084 0.082 -0.027 -0.095 -0.063 PACF 0.012 0.077 0.088 -0.030 -0.010 -0.089 0.090 -0.016 -0.095 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES