RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA091I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA091I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 718 1 Smithers Ski Aerea DENSITY_EARLY PCGL - 718 2 Canada White Spruce 1200 5454-12715 1680 1983 - 718 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 718012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 718061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 1 GAPS / 1770 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 718071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 718112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1748 1749 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 718121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 718011 1684 1983 300 3.974 0.500 2.351 12.604 0.052 0.766 2 718012 1695 1983 289 3.781 0.450 1.068 4.262 0.056 0.789 3 718021 1735 1983 249 3.832 0.366 0.040 3.063 0.054 0.702 4 718022 1713 1983 271 3.755 0.342 0.642 3.364 0.054 0.672 5 718031 1685 1983 299 3.666 0.280 1.622 8.542 0.054 0.462 6 718032 1680 1983 304 3.602 0.227 0.588 3.309 0.050 0.453 7 718041 1713 1983 271 3.593 0.237 0.241 2.540 0.046 0.597 8 718042 1736 1983 248 3.552 0.262 0.432 2.663 0.043 0.703 9 718061 1706 1983 278 3.319 0.372 0.073 2.793 0.057 0.753 10 718062 1730 1983 254 3.146 0.249 0.092 2.925 0.056 0.569 11 718071 1814 1983 170 3.307 0.295 0.586 3.982 0.053 0.675 12 718072 1784 1983 200 3.397 0.349 0.367 2.955 0.053 0.702 13 718081 1770 1983 214 2.630 0.225 0.309 2.610 0.054 0.680 14 718082 1701 1983 283 2.838 0.270 0.519 2.994 0.051 0.744 15 718091 1716 1983 268 3.406 0.325 1.006 3.834 0.062 0.635 16 718092 1734 1983 250 3.512 0.360 0.644 2.800 0.056 0.727 17 718101 1746 1983 238 3.269 0.323 0.165 2.520 0.060 0.703 18 718102 1859 1983 125 3.046 0.297 1.824 11.631 0.068 0.421 19 718111 1751 1983 233 3.077 0.267 0.780 4.194 0.063 0.473 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 718112 1713 1983 271 3.123 0.295 0.692 4.575 0.061 0.627 21 718121 1729 1983 255 3.152 0.396 0.553 3.422 0.066 0.715 22 718122 1728 1983 256 2.876 0.242 0.825 6.012 0.059 0.488 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1680 TO 1983 304 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 3.357 0.315 0.701 4.436 0.056 0.639 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.350 0.072 0.586 2.841 0.006 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 254 3.358 0.296 0.587 3.336 0.055 0.677 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.479 0.097 0.516 1.462 0.007 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 125 2.630 0.225 0.040 2.520 0.043 0.421 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 238 3.123 0.262 0.309 2.800 0.053 0.569 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 271 3.602 0.360 0.825 4.262 0.060 0.715 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 3.974 0.500 2.351 12.604 0.068 0.789 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.257 0.239 0.016 -0.211 2.656 -0.411 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.411 SERIES 718012 AND 718101 238 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 718012 AND 718061 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.05 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 36. 120. 153. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.323 0.239 0.281 0.275 0.236 0.279 0.211 0.278 0.297 SDEV 0.164 0.269 0.249 0.236 0.235 0.248 0.263 0.276 0.238 SERR 0.027 0.025 0.020 0.017 0.016 0.017 0.017 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.874 0.851 0.884 0.886 0.867 0.893 0.854 0.894 0.903 NSS 14.6 18.2 19.5 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1983 304 3.399 0.188 1.035 4.689 0.038 0.565 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.028 -0.018 0.496 45 259 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.35 1.00 1.04 1.39 5.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 256. 40. 125. 238. 278. 304. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.563 0.546 0.529 0.491 0.497 0.405 0.413 0.356 0.341 0.349 PACF 0.563 0.335 0.224 0.122 0.134 -0.042 0.039 -0.035 0.006 0.053 95% C.L. 0.115 0.147 0.171 0.192 0.207 0.223 0.232 0.242 0.248 0.254 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.467 0.252 0.201 0.150 0.086 0.155 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 718011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00274648 3.56078744 2 718012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00426504 3.16483283 3 718021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00311330 3.44284558 4 718022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00332876 3.30190158 5 718031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018632 3.63827324 6 718032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099750 3.45038104 7 718041 1 0.53201556 0.05130976 0.00000000 3.55559134 8 718042 1 0.61666679 0.02738386 0.00000000 3.46283603 9 718061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00383520 2.71551561 10 718062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00142815 2.96405315 11 718071 1 0.54704785 0.05080958 0.00000000 3.24232054 12 718072 1 0.47952816 0.02558204 0.00000000 3.30527854 13 718081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00243116 2.36869693 14 718082 1 0.78959990 0.02999290 0.00000000 2.74605536 15 718091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00171621 3.17555094 16 718092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00203850 3.25640774 17 718101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200103 3.50803113 18 718102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00455441 2.75915217 19 718111 1 0.67210478 0.05250211 0.00000000 3.02382708 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 718112 1 1.01999414 0.06187157 0.00000000 3.06309032 21 718121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00437190 2.59719157 22 718122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050019 2.81189799 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 718011 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.108 2.185 14.483 0.052 0.701 2 718012 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.071 0.600 5.757 0.056 0.440 3 718021 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.076 0.583 3.825 0.054 0.534 4 718022 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.058 0.743 4.554 0.054 0.251 5 718031 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.076 1.669 8.735 0.054 0.459 6 718032 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.058 0.684 3.559 0.050 0.356 7 718041 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.061 0.313 2.744 0.045 0.531 8 718042 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.063 0.469 3.054 0.043 0.590 9 718061 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.078 -0.180 2.534 0.057 0.512 10 718062 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.071 -0.162 2.729 0.056 0.481 11 718071 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.083 0.570 4.555 0.052 0.619 12 718072 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.098 0.726 3.905 0.053 0.662 13 718081 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.064 0.013 3.069 0.053 0.424 14 718082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.076 0.557 4.153 0.051 0.613 15 718091 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.086 0.751 3.533 0.062 0.541 16 718092 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.093 0.498 3.213 0.055 0.670 17 718101 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.090 0.393 3.070 0.060 0.632 18 718102 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.079 1.417 11.026 0.068 0.187 19 718111 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.078 1.090 6.241 0.063 0.354 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 718112 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.080 0.328 3.426 0.061 0.486 21 718121 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.073 0.529 3.923 0.066 0.297 22 718122 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.083 0.604 5.330 0.059 0.478 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 251 1.000 0.077 0.654 4.882 0.056 0.492 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.000 0.013 0.549 2.963 0.006 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 255 1.000 0.077 0.576 3.865 0.055 0.499 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.012 0.349 2.260 0.008 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.058 -0.180 2.534 0.043 0.187 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 238 1.000 0.071 0.393 3.070 0.052 0.424 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.083 0.743 5.330 0.060 0.613 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.108 2.185 14.483 0.068 0.701 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 718011 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 718012 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 718021 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 718022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 718031 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 718032 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 718041 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 718042 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 718061 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 718062 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 718071 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 718072 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 718081 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 718082 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 718091 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 718092 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 718101 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 718102 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 718111 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 718112 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 718121 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 718122 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 718011 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.098 2.962 20.731 0.052 0.639 2 718012 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.063 0.816 6.835 0.056 0.300 3 718021 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.068 0.721 3.939 0.054 0.431 4 718022 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.056 0.705 4.683 0.054 0.203 5 718031 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.070 1.543 8.500 0.054 0.373 6 718032 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.056 0.731 3.545 0.050 0.317 7 718041 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.057 0.199 2.861 0.045 0.458 8 718042 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.058 0.409 3.179 0.043 0.520 9 718061 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.070 0.036 2.763 0.057 0.403 10 718062 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.062 -0.295 2.713 0.056 0.324 11 718071 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.065 0.757 4.470 0.053 0.411 12 718072 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.073 0.843 4.508 0.052 0.428 13 718081 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.059 0.221 3.483 0.053 0.336 14 718082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.065 0.181 3.160 0.051 0.494 15 718091 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.077 0.755 4.162 0.062 0.432 16 718092 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.073 0.462 3.067 0.055 0.469 17 718101 1746 1983 238 0.999 0.074 0.346 3.373 0.060 0.468 18 718102 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.072 1.547 11.665 0.068 0.047 19 718111 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.068 0.921 6.212 0.063 0.187 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 718112 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.070 0.407 3.819 0.061 0.338 21 718121 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.072 0.513 3.917 0.066 0.269 22 718122 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.079 0.666 5.222 0.059 0.441 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 251 1.000 0.069 0.702 5.309 0.056 0.377 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.000 0.009 0.662 4.049 0.006 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 255 1.000 0.069 0.686 3.928 0.055 0.407 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.011 0.470 2.043 0.007 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 125 0.999 0.056 -0.295 2.713 0.043 0.047 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 238 1.000 0.062 0.346 3.179 0.052 0.317 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.073 0.816 5.222 0.060 0.458 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.098 2.962 20.731 0.068 0.639 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.249 0.133 0.009 -0.156 2.694 -0.101 0.588 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.101 SERIES 718011 AND 718072 200 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.588 SERIES 718111 AND 718112 233 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.05 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 36. 120. 153. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.299 0.258 0.308 0.291 0.261 0.288 0.227 0.245 0.262 SDEV 0.149 0.238 0.229 0.212 0.204 0.209 0.233 0.239 0.210 SERR 0.025 0.022 0.019 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.861 0.863 0.897 0.894 0.882 0.897 0.866 0.877 0.886 NSS 14.6 18.2 19.5 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1983 304 0.998 0.037 0.375 3.728 0.037 0.116 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.096 0.046 0.006 101 203 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.77 1.00 1.09 1.86 221.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.115 0.141 0.099 0.086 0.126 -0.019 0.032 -0.039 -0.077 -0.041 PACF 0.115 0.129 0.072 0.054 0.094 -0.065 0.003 -0.055 -0.085 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.118 0.120 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.036 0.101 0.132 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.122 0.152 0.143 0.108 0.151 0.036 0.060 -0.004 -0.087 -0.012 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.122 2 0.105 0.140 3 0.089 0.128 0.114 4 0.082 0.119 0.108 0.065 5 0.075 0.108 0.095 0.056 0.106 6 0.078 0.109 0.097 0.058 0.108 -0.023 7 0.078 0.108 0.097 0.058 0.107 -0.024 0.009 8 0.078 0.107 0.102 0.060 0.112 -0.019 0.012 -0.049 9 0.072 0.109 0.100 0.074 0.119 -0.006 0.025 -0.039 -0.119 10 0.071 0.108 0.100 0.074 0.121 -0.005 0.027 -0.038 -0.117 -0.015 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1519.95 1517.37 1513.39 1511.45 1512.17 1510.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1512.56 1514.54 1515.81 1513.51 1515.44 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.089 0.128 0.114 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.66 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.089 0.136 0.137 0.040 0.036 0.024 0.011 0.008 0.005 0.0028 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 718011 3 0.467 0.419 0.247 0.106 2 718012 3 0.118 0.246 0.105 0.107 3 718021 3 0.304 0.249 0.176 0.270 4 718022 3 0.063 0.173 0.142 0.013 5 718031 3 0.180 0.308 0.184 0.019 6 718032 3 0.145 0.247 0.160 0.094 7 718041 3 0.282 0.337 0.166 0.123 8 718042 3 0.305 0.424 0.102 0.123 9 718061 3 0.279 0.216 0.230 0.229 10 718062 3 0.174 0.214 0.196 0.150 11 718071 3 0.242 0.279 0.179 0.170 12 718072 3 0.215 0.357 0.075 0.136 13 718081 3 0.165 0.246 0.221 0.052 14 718082 3 0.303 0.341 0.231 0.088 15 718091 3 0.286 0.259 0.235 0.170 16 718092 3 0.330 0.277 0.200 0.227 17 718101 3 0.295 0.316 0.175 0.174 18 718102 3 0.025 0.031 0.105 0.102 19 718111 3 0.079 0.143 0.156 0.075 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 718112 3 0.223 0.206 0.240 0.142 21 718121 3 0.116 0.223 0.099 0.113 22 718122 3 0.267 0.316 0.137 0.183 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.221 0.265 0.171 0.130 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 0.089 0.052 0.065 MEDIAN 3 0.232 0.254 0.176 0.123 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.150 0.100 0.083 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.025 0.031 0.075 0.013 LOWER HINGE 3 0.145 0.216 0.137 0.094 UPPER HINGE 3 0.295 0.316 0.221 0.170 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.467 0.424 0.247 0.270 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 718011 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.071 3.020 26.076 0.064 -0.005 2 718012 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.060 1.082 7.362 0.062 -0.005 3 718021 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.057 0.715 5.467 0.060 -0.027 4 718022 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.054 0.533 4.504 0.058 0.000 5 718031 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.063 1.486 8.893 0.064 -0.014 6 718032 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.052 0.727 3.797 0.056 -0.005 7 718041 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.049 0.312 4.066 0.054 -0.023 8 718042 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.048 0.387 3.982 0.052 0.008 9 718061 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.060 0.350 3.711 0.064 -0.016 10 718062 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.056 -0.099 3.140 0.062 -0.002 11 718071 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.057 0.866 4.282 0.060 -0.001 12 718072 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.065 1.492 8.169 0.062 -0.009 13 718081 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.054 0.514 4.640 0.060 -0.002 14 718082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.055 0.507 3.967 0.060 -0.003 15 718091 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.066 1.012 6.615 0.070 -0.020 16 718092 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.060 0.719 4.510 0.064 -0.033 17 718101 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.062 0.146 3.333 0.071 -0.020 18 718102 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.072 1.445 11.416 0.069 -0.002 19 718111 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.066 0.744 6.009 0.068 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 718112 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.062 0.332 3.939 0.067 -0.026 21 718121 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.068 0.576 4.469 0.074 -0.016 22 718122 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.068 0.856 6.419 0.070 -0.025 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 251 1.000 0.060 0.805 6.308 0.063 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.000 0.007 0.647 4.876 0.006 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 255 1.000 0.060 0.717 4.507 0.063 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.011 0.625 2.648 0.008 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.048 -0.099 3.140 0.052 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 238 1.000 0.055 0.387 3.967 0.060 -0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.066 1.012 6.615 0.068 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.072 3.020 26.076 0.074 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.322 0.108 0.007 0.348 3.731 0.017 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.017 SERIES 718012 AND 718071 170 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 718111 AND 718112 233 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.05 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 36. 120. 153. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.365 0.378 0.438 0.405 0.337 0.318 0.264 0.234 0.275 SDEV 0.132 0.156 0.157 0.159 0.156 0.167 0.176 0.177 0.165 SERR 0.022 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.894 0.917 0.938 0.933 0.915 0.910 0.887 0.871 0.893 NSS 14.6 18.2 19.5 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1983 304 0.998 0.037 0.414 4.491 0.042 -0.157 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.105 0.040 0.002 110 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.86 1.00 1.11 1.97 18.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.156 -0.077 -0.090 0.026 0.091 -0.057 0.027 -0.047 -0.074 -0.037 PACF -0.156 -0.104 -0.124 -0.021 0.075 -0.039 0.030 -0.030 -0.100 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.052 -0.188 -0.128 -0.125 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.010 -0.002 -0.008 0.068 -0.061 0.007 -0.064 -0.096 -0.041 PACF -0.001 0.010 -0.002 -0.008 0.068 -0.062 0.006 -0.063 -0.096 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 0.010 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1983 304 0.998 0.036 0.473 3.794 0.036 0.123 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.122 0.165 0.137 0.033 0.086 -0.052 -0.005 -0.071 -0.105 -0.054 PACF 0.122 0.152 0.106 -0.016 0.050 -0.085 -0.014 -0.069 -0.079 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.119 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.050 0.088 0.144 0.106 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES