RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA097I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA097I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 724 1 Peyto Lake, sźdl.Passhšh DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 724 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 2050 5145-11613 1634 1983 - 724 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 2.851 0.278 3.343 18.711 0.055 0.600 2 724012 1717 1983 267 2.638 0.186 0.853 4.350 0.050 0.568 3 724021 1803 1983 181 3.448 0.290 1.720 11.253 0.051 0.575 4 724022 1790 1983 194 3.396 0.332 1.928 8.668 0.057 0.561 5 724031 1741 1983 243 2.715 0.210 0.922 5.098 0.061 0.433 6 724032 1727 1983 257 2.658 0.194 0.415 3.688 0.065 0.355 7 724041 1795 1983 189 3.241 0.325 1.789 8.961 0.061 0.530 8 724042 1794 1983 190 3.218 0.319 1.092 5.730 0.059 0.628 9 724051 1697 1983 287 3.135 0.269 0.794 3.971 0.062 0.489 10 724052 1733 1983 251 3.177 0.233 0.995 5.014 0.059 0.416 11 724061 1740 1974 235 2.959 0.251 0.207 2.742 0.065 0.513 12 724062 1743 1983 241 2.902 0.217 0.507 5.445 0.061 0.394 13 724071 1788 1983 196 2.627 0.226 0.629 3.450 0.048 0.718 14 724072 1794 1983 190 2.545 0.188 0.477 3.537 0.054 0.575 15 724081 1782 1983 202 3.015 0.270 0.306 3.377 0.071 0.446 16 724082 1802 1983 182 3.093 0.300 1.054 5.539 0.078 0.339 17 724091 1634 1983 350 2.836 0.239 0.366 3.442 0.071 0.359 18 724092 1670 1983 314 3.014 0.245 0.176 3.414 0.066 0.438 19 724101 1740 1983 244 3.098 0.298 0.861 5.107 0.076 0.384 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 3.202 0.461 2.137 9.714 0.082 0.561 21 724111 1699 1983 285 3.004 0.312 0.046 2.462 0.050 0.788 22 724112 1703 1983 281 2.935 0.292 0.331 2.635 0.055 0.724 23 724121 1724 1983 260 3.150 0.355 1.523 6.519 0.070 0.631 24 724122 1738 1983 246 3.199 0.329 0.584 4.495 0.068 0.617 25 724131 1794 1983 190 3.130 0.321 0.592 2.502 0.050 0.796 26 724132 1795 1983 189 2.874 0.230 0.405 3.093 0.049 0.635 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1634 TO 1983 350 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 3.002 0.276 0.925 5.497 0.061 0.541 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.237 0.062 0.755 3.566 0.010 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 3.015 0.274 0.711 4.423 0.061 0.561 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.326 0.089 0.686 2.316 0.014 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 181 2.545 0.186 0.046 2.462 0.048 0.339 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 2.851 0.230 0.405 3.414 0.054 0.433 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 3.177 0.319 1.092 5.730 0.068 0.628 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 3.448 0.461 3.343 18.711 0.082 0.796 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.315 0.209 0.012 -0.064 2.697 -0.228 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.228 SERIES 724051 AND 724111 285 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 724111 AND 724112 281 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.334 0.339 0.278 0.365 0.380 0.325 0.348 0.407 0.490 0.540 SDEV 0.000 0.215 0.277 0.201 0.204 0.254 0.243 0.213 0.209 0.137 SERR 0.000 0.047 0.029 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.776 0.866 0.861 0.921 0.939 0.926 0.933 0.947 0.961 0.968 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 2.948 0.174 0.201 3.788 0.048 0.422 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.382 0.278 -0.547 77 273 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.54 1.59 1.01 1.14 2.73 139.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 244. 79. 181. 190. 269. 350. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.421 0.417 0.395 0.367 0.380 0.330 0.316 0.252 0.241 0.245 PACF 0.421 0.291 0.196 0.128 0.137 0.051 0.041 -0.037 -0.010 0.026 95% C.L. 0.107 0.124 0.139 0.152 0.162 0.171 0.179 0.185 0.189 0.192 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.305 0.196 0.178 0.137 0.102 0.141 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 1 1.91285431 0.12597713 0.00000000 2.79796410 2 724012 1 0.68912709 0.05713324 0.00000000 2.59419370 3 724021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112507 3.34529829 4 724022 1 1.22165573 0.08113563 0.00000000 3.32188559 5 724031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039412 2.66706109 6 724032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054797 2.58724952 7 724041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00081091 3.16359854 8 724042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122612 3.10080028 9 724051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140267 3.33714080 10 724052 1 0.58700252 0.00240926 0.00000000 2.73723388 11 724061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041482 2.90973163 12 724062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017729 2.88066387 13 724071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273216 2.35782099 14 724072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157560 2.39447784 15 724081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00225050 2.78692031 16 724082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00138582 2.96605420 17 724091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036224 2.77222776 18 724092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024834 3.05312610 19 724101 1 0.85363811 0.10080770 0.00000000 3.06545806 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099388 3.06042337 21 724111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00277807 2.60649037 22 724112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00260514 2.56755090 23 724121 1 1.44289434 0.06596943 0.00000000 3.06858349 24 724122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111213 3.06122875 25 724131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00421305 2.72754884 26 724132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210350 2.67445278 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.062 1.617 12.875 0.054 0.154 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.056 0.320 3.155 0.050 0.299 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.084 2.491 15.437 0.051 0.554 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.077 0.965 4.421 0.057 0.401 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.077 1.109 6.065 0.060 0.421 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.071 0.296 3.784 0.065 0.318 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.100 2.195 11.185 0.061 0.514 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.098 1.658 8.402 0.059 0.600 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.077 0.858 4.149 0.062 0.375 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.069 0.948 4.627 0.059 0.339 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.084 0.274 2.985 0.065 0.505 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.075 0.536 5.524 0.061 0.391 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.063 0.749 3.459 0.048 0.459 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.065 0.529 3.342 0.054 0.461 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.079 0.602 3.840 0.071 0.284 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.094 1.097 6.265 0.078 0.288 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.083 0.337 3.709 0.071 0.343 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.081 0.222 3.433 0.065 0.430 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.089 0.751 5.249 0.075 0.317 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.143 2.475 11.609 0.082 0.549 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.074 1.526 11.255 0.050 0.521 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.069 0.436 3.662 0.055 0.429 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.086 0.819 4.051 0.070 0.397 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.102 1.101 6.313 0.067 0.596 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.071 0.623 2.981 0.049 0.553 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.071 1.483 6.857 0.049 0.515 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.081 1.001 6.101 0.061 0.424 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.017 0.662 3.509 0.010 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.077 0.839 4.524 0.061 0.425 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.016 0.954 3.195 0.014 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.056 0.222 2.981 0.048 0.154 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.071 0.529 3.662 0.054 0.339 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.086 1.483 6.857 0.067 0.515 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.143 2.491 15.437 0.082 0.600 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 724012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 724021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 724022 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 724031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 724032 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 724041 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 724042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 724051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 724052 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 724061 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 724062 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 724071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 724072 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 724081 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 724082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 724091 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 724092 -67 210 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 724101 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 724111 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 724112 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 724121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 724122 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 724131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 724132 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.061 1.707 14.244 0.054 0.118 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.051 0.196 3.040 0.050 0.146 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.080 2.001 12.522 0.051 0.529 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.068 1.219 5.738 0.057 0.235 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.066 0.573 3.760 0.060 0.257 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.068 0.360 3.662 0.065 0.253 7 724041 1795 1983 189 0.999 0.074 2.179 12.719 0.061 0.209 8 724042 1794 1983 190 0.999 0.073 1.200 6.260 0.058 0.376 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.072 0.839 4.290 0.062 0.296 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.067 0.911 4.601 0.059 0.309 11 724061 1740 1974 235 0.999 0.070 0.062 3.305 0.065 0.290 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.073 0.473 5.496 0.061 0.378 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.055 0.602 3.651 0.048 0.298 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.060 0.430 3.378 0.054 0.373 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.072 0.488 4.013 0.071 0.149 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.087 1.590 7.855 0.078 0.162 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.077 0.249 3.906 0.071 0.247 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.074 0.029 3.318 0.065 0.315 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.082 0.854 5.539 0.075 0.201 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 0.998 0.111 2.238 10.711 0.082 0.325 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.062 0.933 8.653 0.050 0.377 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.062 0.094 3.346 0.054 0.320 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.072 0.977 6.004 0.070 0.143 24 724122 1738 1983 246 0.999 0.080 0.937 5.368 0.067 0.395 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.061 0.524 3.515 0.049 0.416 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.060 1.111 6.104 0.049 0.367 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.071 0.876 5.961 0.061 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.012 0.640 3.236 0.010 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.071 0.847 4.984 0.061 0.297 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.012 0.770 2.608 0.014 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 181 0.998 0.051 0.029 3.040 0.048 0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.062 0.430 3.651 0.054 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.074 1.200 6.260 0.067 0.373 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.111 2.238 14.244 0.082 0.529 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.390 0.108 0.006 0.186 2.993 0.087 0.687 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.087 SERIES 724021 AND 724102 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.687 SERIES 724041 AND 724042 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.341 0.304 0.309 0.382 0.396 0.358 0.375 0.414 0.501 0.559 SDEV 0.000 0.189 0.185 0.174 0.173 0.202 0.196 0.206 0.192 0.127 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.007 EPS 0.782 0.847 0.878 0.926 0.943 0.936 0.940 0.948 0.963 0.971 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.050 0.416 3.716 0.050 0.148 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.113 0.056 -0.011 127 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.63 1.00 1.10 1.73 22.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.148 0.161 0.100 0.106 0.131 0.075 0.064 -0.031 -0.016 0.041 PACF 0.148 0.142 0.061 0.066 0.092 0.023 0.014 -0.076 -0.039 0.040 95% C.L. 0.107 0.109 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 0.127 0.143 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.038 0.096 -0.032 0.041 0.100 0.003 -0.009 -0.083 -0.067 0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.038 2 0.034 0.094 3 0.038 0.096 -0.040 4 0.040 0.092 -0.041 0.035 5 0.036 0.097 -0.051 0.031 0.105 6 0.037 0.097 -0.051 0.032 0.106 -0.013 7 0.037 0.100 -0.051 0.031 0.108 -0.012 -0.026 8 0.035 0.099 -0.042 0.033 0.104 -0.005 -0.023 -0.076 9 0.030 0.097 -0.043 0.041 0.107 -0.007 -0.016 -0.073 -0.068 10 0.035 0.103 -0.041 0.041 0.098 -0.011 -0.013 -0.081 -0.070 0.076 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1989.83 1991.32 1990.19 1991.63 1993.20 1991.30 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1993.24 1995.01 1995.00 1995.40 1995.36 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 724011 0 0.014 2 724012 0 0.022 3 724021 0 0.281 4 724022 0 0.055 5 724031 0 0.070 6 724032 0 0.066 7 724041 0 0.044 8 724042 0 0.151 9 724051 0 0.088 10 724052 0 0.096 11 724061 0 0.084 12 724062 0 0.150 13 724071 0 0.089 14 724072 0 0.140 15 724081 0 0.023 16 724082 0 0.030 17 724091 0 0.061 18 724092 0 0.099 19 724101 0 0.041 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 724102 0 0.112 21 724111 0 0.166 22 724112 0 0.105 23 724121 0 0.021 24 724122 0 0.157 25 724131 0 0.176 26 724132 0 0.141 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 MEDIAN 0 0.088 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.014 LOWER HINGE 0 0.044 UPPER HINGE 0 0.141 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.281 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.061 1.707 14.244 0.054 0.118 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.051 0.196 3.040 0.050 0.146 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.080 2.001 12.522 0.051 0.529 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.068 1.219 5.739 0.057 0.235 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.066 0.573 3.760 0.060 0.257 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.068 0.360 3.662 0.065 0.253 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.074 2.179 12.719 0.061 0.209 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.073 1.200 6.259 0.058 0.376 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.072 0.839 4.290 0.062 0.296 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.067 0.911 4.601 0.059 0.309 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.070 0.062 3.305 0.065 0.290 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.073 0.473 5.496 0.061 0.378 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.055 0.602 3.651 0.048 0.298 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.060 0.430 3.378 0.054 0.373 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.072 0.488 4.013 0.071 0.149 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.087 1.590 7.855 0.078 0.162 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.077 0.249 3.906 0.071 0.247 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.074 0.029 3.318 0.065 0.315 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.082 0.854 5.539 0.075 0.201 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.111 2.238 10.711 0.081 0.325 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.062 0.933 8.653 0.050 0.377 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.062 0.094 3.346 0.054 0.320 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.072 0.977 6.004 0.070 0.143 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.080 0.937 5.368 0.067 0.395 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.061 0.524 3.515 0.049 0.416 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.060 1.111 6.104 0.049 0.367 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.071 0.876 5.961 0.061 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.012 0.640 3.236 0.010 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.071 0.847 4.984 0.061 0.297 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.012 0.770 2.608 0.014 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.051 0.029 3.040 0.048 0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.062 0.430 3.651 0.054 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.074 1.200 6.259 0.067 0.373 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.111 2.238 14.244 0.081 0.529 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.390 0.108 0.006 0.186 2.993 0.087 0.687 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.087 SERIES 724021 AND 724102 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.687 SERIES 724041 AND 724042 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.341 0.304 0.309 0.382 0.396 0.358 0.375 0.414 0.501 0.559 SDEV 0.000 0.189 0.185 0.174 0.173 0.202 0.196 0.206 0.192 0.127 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.007 EPS 0.782 0.847 0.878 0.926 0.943 0.936 0.940 0.948 0.963 0.971 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.998 0.050 0.416 3.716 0.050 0.148 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.113 0.056 -0.011 126 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.66 1.00 1.10 1.76 23.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.148 0.161 0.100 0.106 0.130 0.076 0.064 -0.031 -0.016 0.041 PACF 0.148 0.142 0.061 0.066 0.092 0.023 0.014 -0.076 -0.039 0.040 95% C.L. 0.107 0.109 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 0.127 0.143 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.998 0.050 0.416 3.716 0.050 0.148 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.148 0.161 0.100 0.106 0.130 0.076 0.064 -0.031 -0.016 0.041 PACF 0.148 0.142 0.061 0.066 0.092 0.023 0.014 -0.076 -0.039 0.040 95% C.L. 0.107 0.109 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 0.127 0.143 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES