RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA097L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA097L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 724 1 Peyto Lake, sźdl.Passhšh WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 724 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 2050 5145-11613 1634 1983 - 724 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 724052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 724082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 724111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 724121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 0.174 0.114 2.417 10.655 0.236 0.796 2 724012 1717 1983 267 0.166 0.108 1.849 6.140 0.205 0.810 3 724021 1803 1983 181 0.240 0.101 1.290 5.412 0.315 0.438 4 724022 1790 1983 194 0.182 0.075 1.261 4.339 0.330 0.426 5 724031 1741 1983 243 0.143 0.099 3.266 14.341 0.186 0.843 6 724032 1727 1983 257 0.132 0.043 2.081 9.706 0.193 0.446 7 724041 1795 1983 189 0.212 0.094 1.633 5.602 0.277 0.628 8 724042 1794 1983 190 0.227 0.094 1.966 9.793 0.267 0.445 9 724051 1697 1983 287 0.179 0.090 2.268 10.881 0.198 0.664 10 724052 1733 1983 251 0.175 0.087 1.626 6.035 0.186 0.748 11 724061 1740 1974 235 0.213 0.101 2.447 10.593 0.226 0.641 12 724062 1743 1983 241 0.212 0.107 1.550 6.512 0.221 0.624 13 724071 1788 1983 196 0.182 0.099 1.550 5.159 0.258 0.709 14 724072 1794 1983 190 0.164 0.098 2.858 12.043 0.231 0.731 15 724081 1782 1983 202 0.190 0.110 1.622 5.417 0.221 0.729 16 724082 1802 1983 182 0.177 0.112 3.492 18.828 0.221 0.766 17 724091 1634 1983 350 0.139 0.098 3.006 12.857 0.244 0.701 18 724092 1670 1983 314 0.119 0.050 4.103 38.527 0.201 0.567 19 724101 1740 1983 244 0.197 0.079 1.377 4.990 0.235 0.668 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 0.183 0.088 1.759 6.957 0.243 0.682 21 724111 1699 1983 285 0.152 0.100 1.966 6.888 0.204 0.804 22 724112 1703 1983 281 0.121 0.083 1.956 7.032 0.198 0.855 23 724121 1724 1983 260 0.188 0.105 1.208 4.161 0.217 0.755 24 724122 1738 1983 246 0.203 0.097 1.451 5.090 0.211 0.685 25 724131 1794 1983 190 0.229 0.083 1.080 3.916 0.214 0.708 26 724132 1795 1983 189 0.203 0.063 0.900 4.052 0.201 0.629 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1634 TO 1983 350 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 238 0.181 0.091 1.999 9.074 0.228 0.673 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.033 0.018 0.795 7.058 0.036 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 0.182 0.097 1.804 6.700 0.221 0.693 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.039 0.018 0.965 5.495 0.042 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.119 0.043 0.900 3.916 0.186 0.426 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 0.164 0.083 1.451 5.159 0.201 0.628 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 0.203 0.101 2.417 10.655 0.243 0.755 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 0.240 0.114 4.103 38.527 0.330 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.458 0.222 0.012 -0.804 3.290 -0.240 0.882 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.240 SERIES 724032 AND 724081 202 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.882 SERIES 724012 AND 724112 267 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.457 0.382 0.219 0.278 0.308 0.344 0.270 0.121 0.105 0.133 SDEV 0.000 0.170 0.239 0.196 0.198 0.297 0.228 0.209 0.198 0.185 SERR 0.000 0.037 0.025 0.018 0.015 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.853 0.886 0.819 0.886 0.918 0.932 0.906 0.782 0.753 0.800 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.199 0.093 2.027 8.711 0.166 0.709 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.266 0.138 0.039 129 221 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.57 1.00 1.11 1.68 13.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 244. 79. 181. 190. 269. 350. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.707 0.632 0.602 0.556 0.507 0.466 0.442 0.452 0.525 0.375 PACF 0.707 0.265 0.186 0.078 0.024 0.009 0.034 0.105 0.248 -0.263 95% C.L. 0.107 0.151 0.179 0.201 0.218 0.231 0.241 0.250 0.259 0.271 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.593 0.424 0.162 0.167 0.112 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 1 0.40459490 0.02033771 0.00000000 0.10097238 2 724012 1 0.37336299 0.01578468 0.00000000 0.07925421 3 724021 1 0.20389551 0.01286516 0.00000000 0.16165176 4 724022 1 0.13261430 0.01673448 0.00000000 0.14276952 5 724031 1 0.59934157 0.07521297 0.00000000 0.11110052 6 724032 1 0.10160087 0.03306961 0.00000000 0.12011243 7 724041 1 0.28825182 0.04770444 0.00000000 0.18048342 8 724042 1 0.17609324 0.05118509 0.00000000 0.20961705 9 724051 1 0.27960989 0.01443128 0.00000000 0.11348833 10 724052 1 0.28019637 0.01351214 0.00000000 0.09406997 11 724061 1 0.28464550 0.02557234 0.00000000 0.16675797 12 724062 1 0.36600113 0.00524537 0.00000000 0.00508366 13 724071 1 0.33203265 0.02309065 0.00000000 0.11035871 14 724072 1 0.44680271 0.06109988 0.00000000 0.12657182 15 724081 1 0.36461821 0.01778558 0.00000000 0.09169418 16 724082 1 0.50188655 0.05690114 0.00000000 0.12818465 17 724091 1 0.38294974 0.02972661 0.00000000 0.10271128 18 724092 1 0.11673224 0.00918352 0.00000000 0.08106995 19 724101 1 0.21643896 0.01375346 0.00000000 0.13478281 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 1 0.26988959 0.01392731 0.00000000 0.11640412 21 724111 1 0.34976628 0.01796706 0.00000000 0.08210855 22 724112 1 0.33099651 0.02135984 0.00000000 0.06635809 23 724121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105351 0.32456592 24 724122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086596 0.31003517 25 724131 1 0.23841707 0.03302910 0.00000000 0.19159858 26 724132 1 0.19813772 0.04187151 0.00000000 0.17845577 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 0.998 0.269 0.972 4.220 0.236 0.262 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.003 0.259 1.018 4.557 0.205 0.374 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.354 0.823 3.406 0.313 0.278 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.362 1.205 4.716 0.328 0.262 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.280 0.772 3.926 0.185 0.537 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.267 1.525 7.085 0.192 0.364 7 724041 1795 1983 189 0.999 0.356 1.995 9.516 0.275 0.423 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.392 2.590 16.013 0.266 0.385 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.257 1.191 5.751 0.198 0.347 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.001 0.263 1.757 8.192 0.185 0.389 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.293 0.976 4.976 0.225 0.373 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.002 0.306 0.556 3.771 0.220 0.451 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.301 1.948 10.028 0.257 0.179 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.292 1.228 5.322 0.231 0.394 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.001 0.265 1.283 6.256 0.220 0.318 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.233 0.657 3.794 0.218 0.253 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.402 3.227 19.912 0.244 0.301 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.281 2.121 18.377 0.201 0.401 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.271 0.962 4.391 0.234 0.341 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.274 1.278 6.227 0.242 0.259 21 724111 1699 1983 285 0.998 0.295 1.650 6.624 0.203 0.514 22 724112 1703 1983 281 0.999 0.251 1.522 9.811 0.198 0.360 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.032 0.379 1.279 4.999 0.217 0.613 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.004 0.320 0.916 4.322 0.210 0.499 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.281 1.130 5.184 0.213 0.459 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.243 0.796 5.004 0.200 0.402 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.001 0.298 1.361 7.169 0.228 0.375 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.006 0.047 0.620 4.465 0.036 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.281 1.217 5.253 0.219 0.374 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.001 0.055 0.688 3.801 0.042 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 181 0.998 0.233 0.556 3.406 0.185 0.179 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.265 0.962 4.391 0.201 0.301 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.320 1.650 8.192 0.242 0.423 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.032 0.402 3.227 19.912 0.328 0.613 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 724012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 724021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 724022 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 724031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 724032 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 724041 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 724042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 724051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 724052 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 724061 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 724062 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 724071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 724072 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 724081 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 724082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 724091 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 724092 -67 210 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 724101 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 724111 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 724112 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 724121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 724122 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 724131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 724132 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 0.998 0.253 0.941 4.130 0.236 0.180 2 724012 1717 1983 267 0.998 0.216 1.037 5.520 0.205 0.129 3 724021 1803 1983 181 0.997 0.332 0.832 3.496 0.313 0.210 4 724022 1790 1983 194 0.999 0.351 1.082 4.450 0.328 0.228 5 724031 1741 1983 243 0.997 0.241 0.910 5.524 0.186 0.368 6 724032 1727 1983 257 0.999 0.235 1.575 9.356 0.192 0.184 7 724041 1795 1983 189 0.998 0.309 1.571 7.014 0.275 0.265 8 724042 1794 1983 190 0.995 0.338 2.006 11.914 0.266 0.269 9 724051 1697 1983 287 0.997 0.229 1.454 7.942 0.198 0.180 10 724052 1733 1983 251 0.998 0.232 2.253 12.427 0.185 0.214 11 724061 1740 1974 235 0.998 0.281 1.083 5.624 0.225 0.313 12 724062 1743 1983 241 0.994 0.274 0.858 5.265 0.220 0.297 13 724071 1788 1983 196 0.998 0.286 2.083 11.113 0.257 0.089 14 724072 1794 1983 190 0.998 0.269 1.464 6.852 0.231 0.289 15 724081 1782 1983 202 0.998 0.243 1.494 7.418 0.220 0.198 16 724082 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.212 0.557 4.048 0.219 0.111 17 724091 1634 1983 350 0.999 0.397 3.324 21.587 0.244 0.284 18 724092 1670 1983 314 0.998 0.272 2.570 24.220 0.201 0.350 19 724101 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.263 0.825 3.980 0.234 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 0.999 0.270 1.216 6.048 0.242 0.245 21 724111 1699 1983 285 0.997 0.272 1.405 5.724 0.203 0.441 22 724112 1703 1983 281 0.997 0.230 1.394 8.389 0.198 0.263 23 724121 1724 1983 260 0.992 0.271 1.817 10.271 0.216 0.306 24 724122 1738 1983 246 0.993 0.279 1.281 5.982 0.210 0.366 25 724131 1794 1983 190 0.998 0.265 1.029 4.579 0.213 0.405 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.234 0.491 3.926 0.200 0.375 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 0.998 0.271 1.406 7.954 0.228 0.264 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.002 0.044 0.643 5.093 0.036 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 0.998 0.269 1.337 6.015 0.219 0.267 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.002 0.046 0.634 4.777 0.042 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 181 0.992 0.212 0.491 3.496 0.185 0.089 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 0.997 0.235 0.941 4.579 0.201 0.198 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 0.999 0.281 1.575 9.356 0.242 0.316 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.397 3.324 24.220 0.328 0.441 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.168 0.114 0.006 0.321 3.126 -0.092 0.561 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.092 SERIES 724032 AND 724132 189 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.561 SERIES 724041 AND 724042 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.576 0.250 0.202 0.186 0.254 0.273 0.174 0.120 0.117 0.125 SDEV 0.000 0.150 0.182 0.173 0.181 0.209 0.204 0.200 0.185 0.175 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.904 0.808 0.803 0.822 0.895 0.907 0.846 0.780 0.774 0.788 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.978 0.238 2.987 23.564 0.194 0.242 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.113 0.082 124 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.21 1.00 1.11 2.33 44.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.242 0.105 0.060 0.029 -0.017 -0.029 -0.028 0.040 0.190 -0.021 PACF 0.242 0.050 0.025 0.005 -0.032 -0.023 -0.014 0.059 0.186 -0.119 95% C.L. 0.107 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.118 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.061 0.242 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.157 0.054 0.079 0.048 -0.020 -0.002 -0.103 -0.036 0.038 0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.157 2 0.152 0.030 3 0.150 0.019 0.068 4 0.149 0.019 0.064 0.026 5 0.149 0.021 0.065 0.031 -0.037 6 0.149 0.021 0.065 0.031 -0.037 -0.001 7 0.149 0.017 0.068 0.038 -0.035 0.015 -0.109 8 0.149 0.017 0.068 0.038 -0.034 0.015 -0.109 -0.002 9 0.149 0.023 0.067 0.040 -0.037 0.011 -0.109 -0.010 0.055 10 0.148 0.024 0.070 0.040 -0.036 0.010 -0.111 -0.011 0.051 0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2675.72 2668.99 2670.69 2671.07 2672.85 2674.36 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2676.36 2674.19 2676.19 2677.11 2678.81 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.52 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.157 0.025 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 724011 1 0.052 0.181 2 724012 1 0.023 0.130 3 724021 1 0.045 0.210 4 724022 1 0.052 0.229 5 724031 1 0.153 0.368 6 724032 1 0.090 0.184 7 724041 1 0.072 0.267 8 724042 1 0.108 0.271 9 724051 1 0.040 0.180 10 724052 1 0.074 0.214 11 724061 1 0.118 0.320 12 724062 1 0.103 0.312 13 724071 1 0.020 0.089 14 724072 1 0.106 0.289 15 724081 1 0.049 0.199 16 724082 1 0.018 0.111 17 724091 1 0.084 0.284 18 724092 1 0.155 0.351 19 724101 1 0.109 0.318 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 724102 1 0.072 0.247 21 724111 1 0.231 0.444 22 724112 1 0.080 0.264 23 724121 1 0.094 0.306 24 724122 1 0.145 0.367 25 724131 1 0.175 0.405 26 724132 1 0.170 0.376 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.094 0.266 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.053 0.091 MEDIAN 1 0.087 0.269 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.066 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.018 0.089 LOWER HINGE 1 0.052 0.199 UPPER HINGE 1 0.118 0.320 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.231 0.444 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.249 0.915 4.057 0.263 -0.026 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.214 0.959 5.412 0.220 -0.011 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.325 0.843 3.857 0.349 -0.004 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.342 1.019 4.425 0.370 -0.003 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.224 1.101 8.470 0.232 -0.053 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.231 1.707 10.321 0.214 -0.044 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.298 1.258 5.619 0.318 -0.008 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.325 2.183 13.730 0.308 -0.052 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.225 1.220 7.231 0.221 -0.016 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.226 2.278 12.622 0.211 -0.037 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.266 1.117 5.650 0.268 -0.045 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.260 0.728 5.983 0.254 -0.037 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.284 2.094 11.283 0.270 -0.010 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.257 1.530 7.494 0.270 -0.045 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.238 1.463 7.643 0.243 -0.021 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.211 0.545 3.958 0.231 -0.009 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.380 3.453 24.222 0.287 -0.014 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.254 2.983 29.052 0.248 -0.068 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.249 0.720 4.168 0.278 -0.030 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.262 1.185 6.217 0.273 -0.028 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.244 1.230 5.544 0.254 -0.092 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.221 1.439 9.374 0.231 -0.029 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.258 1.791 9.986 0.248 0.007 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.260 1.380 6.425 0.256 -0.041 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.242 0.955 4.845 0.261 -0.045 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.216 0.718 4.932 0.244 -0.067 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.260 1.416 8.558 0.262 -0.032 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.043 0.703 6.017 0.039 0.023 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.252 1.225 6.321 0.255 -0.029 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.039 0.752 5.054 0.041 0.034 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.211 0.545 3.857 0.211 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.226 0.955 4.932 0.232 -0.045 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.266 1.707 9.986 0.273 -0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.380 3.453 29.052 0.370 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.181 0.112 0.006 0.345 3.477 -0.099 0.607 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.099 SERIES 724111 AND 724131 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.607 SERIES 724021 AND 724022 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.483 0.327 0.227 0.216 0.292 0.287 0.181 0.122 0.097 0.109 SDEV 0.000 0.135 0.165 0.169 0.167 0.179 0.207 0.208 0.172 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.017 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.866 0.860 0.826 0.848 0.912 0.913 0.852 0.783 0.736 0.760 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.983 0.225 3.055 24.120 0.213 -0.048 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.111 0.072 127 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 1.32 1.00 1.13 2.45 9.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.048 0.029 0.026 0.019 -0.027 -0.018 -0.030 -0.002 0.225 -0.095 PACF -0.048 0.027 0.029 0.021 -0.027 -0.022 -0.032 -0.003 0.230 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.113 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.028 0.028 0.019 -0.027 -0.021 -0.031 0.007 0.221 -0.082 PACF 0.001 0.028 0.028 0.018 -0.029 -0.022 -0.031 0.010 0.226 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.112 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.983 0.228 3.223 26.133 0.191 0.164 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.163 0.058 0.039 0.020 -0.027 -0.028 -0.028 0.035 0.209 -0.041 PACF 0.163 0.032 0.025 0.008 -0.035 -0.021 -0.019 0.047 0.208 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.107 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.115 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 0.163 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.03 MINUTES