RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA097T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA097T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 724 1 Peyto Lake, sźdl.Passhšh DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 724 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 2050 5145-11613 1634 1983 - 724 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 5.050 0.582 0.082 2.814 0.093 0.487 2 724012 1717 1983 267 4.742 0.606 -0.203 2.707 0.099 0.517 3 724021 1803 1983 181 5.346 0.622 -0.263 2.812 0.116 0.261 4 724022 1790 1983 194 5.411 0.688 -0.201 2.805 0.129 0.211 5 724031 1741 1983 243 4.237 0.718 0.484 2.454 0.122 0.539 6 724032 1727 1983 257 4.089 0.697 0.774 2.978 0.114 0.602 7 724041 1795 1983 189 5.357 0.664 -0.501 3.204 0.138 0.070 8 724042 1794 1983 190 5.333 0.690 -0.262 2.746 0.137 0.152 9 724051 1697 1983 287 5.540 0.688 -0.049 2.327 0.099 0.418 10 724052 1733 1983 251 5.586 0.605 -0.147 2.896 0.097 0.282 11 724061 1740 1974 235 4.434 0.720 0.131 2.497 0.133 0.477 12 724062 1743 1983 241 4.438 0.618 0.324 3.410 0.130 0.338 13 724071 1788 1983 196 4.864 0.615 -0.176 2.469 0.118 0.262 14 724072 1794 1983 190 4.841 0.631 -0.394 2.777 0.131 0.232 15 724081 1782 1983 202 5.038 0.536 -0.218 2.890 0.114 0.090 16 724082 1802 1983 182 4.861 0.599 -0.103 2.503 0.107 0.370 17 724091 1634 1983 350 4.785 0.648 -0.227 2.930 0.139 0.154 18 724092 1670 1983 314 4.802 0.638 -0.217 2.875 0.146 0.070 19 724101 1740 1983 244 5.475 0.740 -0.188 2.768 0.132 0.184 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 5.482 0.662 -0.246 2.775 0.119 0.201 21 724111 1699 1983 285 5.262 0.577 -0.316 3.415 0.098 0.340 22 724112 1703 1983 281 4.924 0.525 -0.150 3.273 0.109 0.135 23 724121 1724 1983 260 5.726 0.632 -0.534 3.282 0.116 0.121 24 724122 1738 1983 246 5.523 0.711 -0.054 3.104 0.111 0.387 25 724131 1794 1983 190 5.562 0.582 -0.176 2.567 0.104 0.218 26 724132 1795 1983 189 5.461 0.579 -0.365 3.239 0.110 0.111 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1634 TO 1983 350 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 5.083 0.637 -0.123 2.866 0.118 0.278 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.452 0.058 0.288 0.304 0.015 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 5.156 0.631 -0.194 2.813 0.116 0.246 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.673 0.090 0.208 0.397 0.023 0.236 MINIMUM VALUE 181 4.089 0.525 -0.534 2.327 0.093 0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 4.802 0.599 -0.262 2.707 0.107 0.152 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 5.475 0.688 -0.054 3.104 0.131 0.387 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 5.726 0.740 0.774 3.415 0.146 0.602 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.518 0.151 0.008 -0.711 3.328 0.034 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 724051 AND 724131 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 724022 AND 724041 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.844 0.587 0.501 0.715 0.712 0.591 0.604 0.622 0.567 0.593 SDEV 0.000 0.144 0.189 0.095 0.088 0.157 0.166 0.164 0.187 0.213 SERR 0.000 0.031 0.020 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.974 0.947 0.942 0.981 0.984 0.974 0.975 0.977 0.971 0.974 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 5.109 0.488 -0.556 3.007 0.102 0.071 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.101 0.052 0.280 78 272 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.28 1.00 1.03 1.31 3.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 244. 79. 181. 190. 269. 350. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.071 0.184 0.142 0.161 0.152 0.127 0.143 0.080 0.084 0.086 PACF 0.071 0.180 0.123 0.121 0.103 0.064 0.074 0.005 0.003 0.016 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.111 0.113 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.121 0.122 0.123 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.080 0.008 0.139 0.102 0.120 0.105 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 1 1.30551434 0.01568745 0.00000000 4.74754381 2 724012 1 1.89709711 0.00511064 0.00000000 3.70977783 3 724021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073784 5.41322088 4 724022 1 1.40133953 0.04817964 0.00000000 5.26439381 5 724031 1 1.54119360 0.01404564 0.00000000 3.80386949 6 724032 1 2.01549554 0.01032460 0.00000000 3.38617587 7 724041 1 0.60635525 0.03301685 0.00000000 5.26143742 8 724042 1 1.01098073 0.08326849 0.00000000 5.27198648 9 724051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00417925 6.14229965 10 724052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00281686 5.94106007 11 724061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00425832 4.93682146 12 724062 1 1.64048445 0.08805449 0.00000000 4.36364269 13 724071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00232398 4.63506746 14 724072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00231980 5.06259298 15 724081 1 0.88728023 0.08732615 0.00000000 4.98988533 16 724082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00504579 5.32223892 17 724091 1 0.71343201 0.00608871 0.00000000 4.49049377 18 724092 1 0.46581000 0.03415578 0.00000000 4.75928164 19 724101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00188749 5.24419260 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 1 1.98741388 0.15389223 0.00000000 5.43958998 21 724111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128013 5.07939768 22 724112 1 0.71626115 0.01140916 0.00000000 4.71107388 23 724121 1 1.24149489 0.02438411 0.00000000 5.53267288 24 724122 1 1.84731221 0.03407134 0.00000000 5.30614519 25 724131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00471823 5.11188316 26 724132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00213980 5.25730085 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.096 -0.212 2.770 0.093 0.247 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.098 -0.410 2.895 0.099 0.145 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.116 -0.253 2.775 0.115 0.255 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.117 -0.280 2.685 0.128 0.066 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.143 0.621 3.106 0.121 0.367 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.113 0.119 3.040 0.114 0.174 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.122 -0.446 3.183 0.137 0.027 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.126 -0.229 2.731 0.136 0.108 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.107 -0.046 3.150 0.099 0.224 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.102 -0.150 3.057 0.097 0.200 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.146 -0.185 2.909 0.133 0.378 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.130 0.237 3.540 0.129 0.251 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.123 -0.243 2.541 0.117 0.222 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.128 -0.309 2.622 0.130 0.202 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.103 -0.140 3.138 0.114 0.033 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.110 -0.092 2.701 0.107 0.225 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.131 -0.234 3.145 0.139 0.082 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.132 -0.173 2.982 0.145 0.048 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.133 -0.238 2.750 0.132 0.150 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.116 -0.297 2.784 0.118 0.137 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.108 -0.314 3.547 0.098 0.319 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.100 -0.207 3.327 0.109 0.015 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.100 -0.613 3.599 0.115 -0.102 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.110 -0.270 3.723 0.111 0.121 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.093 -0.633 3.105 0.103 0.040 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.103 -0.619 3.518 0.109 0.079 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.116 -0.216 3.051 0.117 0.154 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.015 0.260 0.332 0.015 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.114 -0.236 3.049 0.115 0.148 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.025 0.158 0.413 0.023 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.093 -0.633 2.541 0.093 -0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.103 -0.309 2.770 0.107 0.066 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.128 -0.150 3.183 0.130 0.225 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.146 0.621 3.723 0.145 0.378 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 724012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 724021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 724022 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 724031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 724032 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 724041 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 724042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 724051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 724052 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 724061 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 724062 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 724071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 724072 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 724081 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 724082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 724091 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 724092 -67 210 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 724101 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 724111 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 724112 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 724121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 724122 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 724131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 724132 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.094 -0.244 2.757 0.093 0.220 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.096 -0.421 2.964 0.099 0.101 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.115 -0.203 2.870 0.115 0.226 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.115 -0.368 2.618 0.128 0.040 5 724031 1741 1983 243 0.999 0.122 0.499 3.660 0.121 0.160 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.107 -0.062 2.964 0.114 0.092 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.121 -0.506 3.122 0.137 0.013 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.122 -0.348 2.751 0.136 0.052 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.098 -0.234 3.776 0.099 0.099 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.093 -0.265 3.683 0.097 0.045 11 724061 1740 1974 235 0.999 0.132 -0.391 2.955 0.133 0.246 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.120 -0.010 3.465 0.129 0.134 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.113 -0.288 2.940 0.117 0.080 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.114 -0.341 2.682 0.130 -0.003 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.100 -0.157 3.209 0.114 -0.037 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.105 -0.078 2.720 0.107 0.138 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.130 -0.246 3.160 0.139 0.066 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.130 -0.193 3.013 0.145 0.032 19 724101 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.121 -0.250 2.873 0.132 -0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.114 -0.271 2.704 0.118 0.097 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.098 -0.187 3.810 0.098 0.145 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.100 -0.201 3.337 0.109 0.006 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.099 -0.591 3.622 0.115 -0.113 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.108 -0.338 3.762 0.111 0.084 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.091 -0.687 3.191 0.103 0.007 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.101 -0.626 3.487 0.109 0.048 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.110 -0.269 3.157 0.117 0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.012 0.228 0.387 0.015 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.110 -0.258 3.067 0.115 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.021 0.175 0.617 0.023 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 181 0.999 0.091 -0.687 2.618 0.093 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.099 -0.368 2.870 0.107 0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.121 -0.193 3.487 0.130 0.134 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.132 0.499 3.810 0.145 0.246 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.604 0.104 0.006 -0.555 3.320 0.260 0.851 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.260 SERIES 724042 AND 724051 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.851 SERIES 724022 AND 724041 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.856 0.569 0.472 0.717 0.719 0.633 0.620 0.638 0.587 0.593 SDEV 0.000 0.145 0.181 0.089 0.082 0.115 0.157 0.157 0.178 0.197 SERR 0.000 0.032 0.019 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.976 0.943 0.935 0.981 0.985 0.978 0.977 0.979 0.974 0.974 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.089 -0.529 3.034 0.101 -0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.061 0.021 0.042 84 266 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.35 1.00 1.05 1.40 7.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.060 0.071 0.022 0.042 0.049 0.013 0.042 -0.041 -0.021 -0.021 PACF -0.060 0.067 0.030 0.040 0.051 0.013 0.035 -0.043 -0.037 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.100 0.023 -0.042 0.028 0.076 -0.017 0.058 -0.070 -0.032 -0.023 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.100 2 -0.099 0.013 3 -0.098 0.009 -0.039 4 -0.098 0.009 -0.037 0.020 5 -0.099 0.012 -0.038 0.028 0.083 6 -0.099 0.012 -0.038 0.028 0.083 -0.004 7 -0.099 0.007 -0.040 0.030 0.082 0.002 0.056 8 -0.096 0.008 -0.035 0.032 0.080 0.002 0.051 -0.054 9 -0.098 0.010 -0.035 0.036 0.082 0.001 0.052 -0.059 -0.052 10 -0.100 0.008 -0.034 0.036 0.084 0.002 0.050 -0.058 -0.055 -0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2454.71 2453.18 2455.12 2456.58 2458.45 2458.01 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2460.00 2460.89 2461.88 2462.94 2464.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.100 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.00 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.01 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.100 0.010 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 724011 1 0.069 0.221 2 724012 1 0.057 0.101 3 724021 1 0.080 0.229 4 724022 1 0.004 0.040 5 724031 1 0.078 0.161 6 724032 1 0.015 0.092 7 724041 1 0.000 0.013 8 724042 1 0.008 0.053 9 724051 1 0.052 0.100 10 724052 1 0.004 0.045 11 724061 1 0.075 0.248 12 724062 1 0.018 0.134 13 724071 1 0.007 0.080 14 724072 1 0.002 -0.003 15 724081 1 0.002 -0.037 16 724082 1 0.039 0.140 17 724091 1 0.029 0.066 18 724092 1 0.033 0.032 19 724101 1 0.013 -0.028 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 724102 1 0.048 0.097 21 724111 1 0.078 0.146 22 724112 1 0.022 0.006 23 724121 1 0.013 -0.113 24 724122 1 0.042 0.084 25 724131 1 0.005 0.007 26 724132 1 0.004 0.048 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.031 0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.028 0.085 MEDIAN 1 0.020 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.047 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.113 LOWER HINGE 1 0.005 0.013 UPPER HINGE 1 0.052 0.134 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.080 0.248 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.092 -0.267 2.873 0.104 -0.032 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.095 -0.474 3.057 0.104 -0.022 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.112 -0.296 2.851 0.130 -0.038 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.115 -0.373 2.653 0.131 -0.002 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.121 0.441 3.858 0.133 -0.037 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.106 -0.100 3.060 0.119 -0.007 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.121 -0.514 3.130 0.138 0.000 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.122 -0.354 2.777 0.139 -0.004 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.098 -0.260 3.942 0.104 -0.020 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.093 -0.312 3.734 0.099 -0.002 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.128 -0.496 3.122 0.149 -0.029 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.119 -0.046 3.602 0.137 -0.001 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.113 -0.325 3.032 0.122 0.001 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.114 -0.339 2.679 0.130 0.000 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.100 -0.139 3.192 0.111 0.001 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.104 -0.092 2.722 0.115 -0.018 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.129 -0.274 3.237 0.144 -0.010 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.130 -0.208 3.026 0.148 -0.006 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.121 -0.232 2.835 0.129 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.114 -0.299 2.775 0.125 -0.019 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.097 -0.196 3.951 0.106 -0.035 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.100 -0.203 3.342 0.109 -0.001 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.099 -0.530 3.485 0.108 0.003 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.107 -0.407 3.909 0.116 -0.016 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.091 -0.691 3.200 0.103 0.000 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.101 -0.669 3.593 0.112 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.109 -0.294 3.217 0.122 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.012 0.222 0.419 0.015 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.109 -0.297 3.126 0.121 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.022 0.204 0.741 0.024 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.091 -0.691 2.653 0.099 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.099 -0.407 2.851 0.108 -0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.121 -0.203 3.593 0.133 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.130 0.441 3.951 0.149 0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.621 0.096 0.005 -0.506 3.284 0.300 0.852 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.300 SERIES 724042 AND 724051 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.852 SERIES 724022 AND 724041 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.860 0.581 0.481 0.739 0.745 0.644 0.623 0.652 0.605 0.605 SDEV 0.000 0.146 0.174 0.078 0.071 0.106 0.152 0.149 0.164 0.183 SERR 0.000 0.032 0.018 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.977 0.946 0.937 0.983 0.987 0.979 0.977 0.980 0.975 0.976 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.090 -0.567 3.126 0.105 -0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.053 0.017 0.043 82 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.43 1.01 1.08 1.51 5.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.130 0.070 0.013 0.033 0.042 0.008 0.044 -0.043 -0.017 -0.022 PACF -0.130 0.054 0.029 0.034 0.049 0.016 0.041 -0.038 -0.037 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.107 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.131 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.057 0.026 0.041 0.049 0.020 0.041 -0.040 -0.026 -0.017 PACF 0.007 0.057 0.026 0.038 0.046 0.015 0.034 -0.047 -0.034 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.090 -0.554 3.093 0.103 -0.099 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.098 0.064 0.016 0.034 0.044 0.011 0.043 -0.042 -0.019 -0.021 PACF -0.098 0.055 0.028 0.035 0.048 0.015 0.039 -0.040 -0.037 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.013 -0.099 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES