RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA097X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA097X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 724 1 Peyto Lake, sźdl.Passhšh DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 724 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 2050 5145-11613 1634 1983 - 724 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 724071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 0.585 0.078 0.078 2.664 0.100 0.552 2 724012 1717 1983 267 0.548 0.083 -0.073 2.530 0.109 0.589 3 724021 1803 1983 181 0.606 0.077 -0.455 2.751 0.130 0.234 4 724022 1790 1983 194 0.614 0.082 -0.285 2.783 0.136 0.187 5 724031 1741 1983 243 0.472 0.095 0.490 2.370 0.132 0.608 6 724032 1727 1983 257 0.455 0.093 0.796 2.896 0.125 0.667 7 724041 1795 1983 189 0.608 0.080 -0.589 3.394 0.148 0.026 8 724042 1794 1983 190 0.605 0.082 -0.389 2.841 0.147 0.107 9 724051 1697 1983 287 0.630 0.087 -0.023 2.293 0.106 0.449 10 724052 1733 1983 251 0.630 0.073 -0.136 3.052 0.098 0.307 11 724061 1740 1974 235 0.493 0.093 0.161 2.394 0.148 0.505 12 724062 1743 1983 241 0.495 0.080 0.399 3.338 0.141 0.401 13 724071 1788 1983 196 0.560 0.078 -0.089 2.422 0.131 0.237 14 724072 1794 1983 190 0.562 0.081 -0.382 2.958 0.138 0.276 15 724081 1782 1983 202 0.576 0.069 -0.129 2.809 0.123 0.176 16 724082 1802 1983 182 0.547 0.077 -0.036 2.493 0.116 0.425 17 724091 1634 1983 350 0.539 0.083 -0.164 2.875 0.154 0.193 18 724092 1670 1983 314 0.536 0.078 -0.254 2.914 0.160 0.080 19 724101 1740 1983 244 0.623 0.090 -0.253 2.741 0.143 0.170 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 0.619 0.079 -0.292 2.642 0.128 0.171 21 724111 1699 1983 285 0.596 0.073 -0.254 3.307 0.107 0.363 22 724112 1703 1983 281 0.554 0.069 0.053 3.211 0.117 0.280 23 724121 1724 1983 260 0.660 0.078 -0.618 3.242 0.123 0.108 24 724122 1738 1983 246 0.634 0.092 -0.066 2.853 0.122 0.420 25 724131 1794 1983 190 0.639 0.069 -0.284 2.698 0.111 0.148 26 724132 1795 1983 189 0.632 0.071 -0.512 3.592 0.117 0.116 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1634 TO 1983 350 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 0.578 0.080 -0.127 2.849 0.127 0.300 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.055 0.008 0.326 0.342 0.017 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 0.590 0.079 -0.150 2.825 0.126 0.256 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.076 0.005 0.269 0.410 0.025 0.255 MINIMUM VALUE 181 0.455 0.069 -0.618 2.293 0.098 0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 0.547 0.077 -0.292 2.642 0.116 0.170 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 0.623 0.083 -0.023 3.052 0.141 0.425 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 0.660 0.095 0.796 3.592 0.160 0.667 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.539 0.151 0.008 -0.708 3.298 0.074 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.074 SERIES 724051 AND 724131 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 724022 AND 724041 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.859 0.605 0.521 0.729 0.725 0.614 0.629 0.642 0.571 0.589 SDEV 0.000 0.124 0.167 0.092 0.092 0.153 0.165 0.162 0.186 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.018 0.008 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.977 0.951 0.946 0.982 0.985 0.976 0.978 0.979 0.972 0.974 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.584 0.063 -0.473 2.873 0.112 0.119 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.032 0.016 0.058 61 289 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.32 1.01 1.07 1.39 12.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 244. 79. 181. 190. 269. 350. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.118 0.213 0.186 0.192 0.180 0.168 0.168 0.125 0.127 0.126 PACF 0.118 0.202 0.150 0.133 0.105 0.080 0.072 0.021 0.020 0.027 95% C.L. 0.107 0.108 0.113 0.117 0.120 0.123 0.126 0.128 0.130 0.131 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.113 0.021 0.137 0.114 0.117 0.105 0.081 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 1 0.19365805 0.00900430 0.00000000 0.51205355 2 724012 1 0.28942135 0.00483078 0.00000000 0.38555181 3 724021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015959 0.62004787 4 724022 1 0.15720934 0.04264329 0.00000000 0.59527028 5 724031 1 0.21978661 0.01280528 0.00000000 0.40451163 6 724032 1 0.28816938 0.00991765 0.00000000 0.35178125 7 724041 1 0.05885900 0.01899948 0.00000000 0.59214902 8 724042 1 0.11237437 0.07163058 0.00000000 0.59750915 9 724051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059576 0.71596378 10 724052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040791 0.68155569 11 724061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064096 0.56895256 12 724062 1 0.20540790 0.06442921 0.00000000 0.48200655 13 724071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012978 0.54992980 14 724072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046302 0.60579783 15 724081 1 0.12765676 0.05364511 0.00000000 0.56452322 16 724082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080490 0.62051666 17 724091 1 0.11736821 0.00633639 0.00000000 0.49182153 18 724092 1 0.06443240 0.02747491 0.00000000 0.52859056 19 724101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021859 0.59605038 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 1 0.10652561 0.03449311 0.00000000 0.60842752 21 724111 1 0.06790321 0.02543946 0.00000000 0.58647919 22 724112 1 0.14056163 0.00787198 0.00000000 0.49765626 23 724121 1 0.13084897 0.01278806 0.00000000 0.62203944 24 724122 1 0.22542070 0.02037587 0.00000000 0.58980519 25 724131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048709 0.59248286 26 724132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017306 0.61525273 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.106 -0.251 2.815 0.100 0.264 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.107 -0.380 3.024 0.109 0.139 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.127 -0.424 2.688 0.130 0.220 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.124 -0.322 2.787 0.135 0.043 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.164 0.639 3.123 0.132 0.425 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.124 0.246 3.086 0.124 0.198 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.130 -0.491 3.393 0.147 -0.012 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.133 -0.351 2.882 0.147 0.060 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.113 -0.030 3.186 0.105 0.190 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.106 -0.206 3.313 0.098 0.187 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.162 -0.196 2.968 0.148 0.366 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.148 0.369 3.646 0.140 0.292 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.139 -0.142 2.444 0.129 0.258 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.138 -0.283 2.595 0.138 0.202 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.113 -0.108 3.103 0.122 0.063 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.118 -0.048 2.760 0.116 0.187 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.144 -0.223 3.139 0.154 0.072 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.144 -0.222 3.060 0.159 0.048 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.143 -0.311 2.691 0.143 0.139 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.123 -0.245 2.718 0.128 0.107 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.120 -0.259 3.311 0.107 0.326 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.108 -0.164 3.435 0.117 0.036 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.108 -0.688 3.547 0.123 -0.095 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.119 -0.367 3.638 0.122 0.092 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.099 -0.680 3.285 0.110 0.018 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.112 -0.662 3.778 0.117 0.106 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.126 -0.223 3.093 0.127 0.151 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.018 0.298 0.353 0.017 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.123 -0.248 3.095 0.126 0.139 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.027 0.225 0.527 0.025 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.099 -0.688 2.444 0.098 -0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.112 -0.367 2.787 0.116 0.060 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.139 -0.142 3.313 0.140 0.220 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.164 0.639 3.778 0.159 0.425 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 724011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 724012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 724021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 724022 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 724031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 724032 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 724041 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 724042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 724051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 724052 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 724061 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 724062 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 724071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 724072 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 724081 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 724082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 724091 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 724092 -67 210 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 724101 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 724102 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 724111 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 724112 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 724121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 724122 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 724131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 724132 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.104 -0.263 2.791 0.100 0.237 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.105 -0.387 3.069 0.109 0.112 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.125 -0.366 2.790 0.130 0.175 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.123 -0.374 2.742 0.135 0.029 5 724031 1741 1983 243 0.999 0.137 0.498 3.728 0.132 0.203 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.117 0.043 2.933 0.124 0.107 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.129 -0.532 3.316 0.147 -0.027 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.129 -0.440 2.829 0.147 0.013 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.105 -0.195 3.793 0.105 0.077 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.097 -0.307 3.938 0.098 0.040 11 724061 1740 1974 235 0.999 0.148 -0.380 2.965 0.148 0.240 12 724062 1743 1983 241 0.999 0.133 0.101 3.619 0.140 0.133 13 724071 1788 1983 196 0.999 0.126 -0.155 2.820 0.129 0.107 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.123 -0.251 2.642 0.138 0.001 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.109 -0.150 3.163 0.122 -0.014 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.114 -0.098 2.769 0.116 0.120 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.142 -0.240 3.148 0.154 0.049 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.143 -0.241 3.082 0.159 0.036 19 724101 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.132 -0.304 2.833 0.143 -0.022 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.122 -0.235 2.687 0.128 0.091 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.110 -0.164 3.664 0.107 0.182 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.108 -0.156 3.448 0.117 0.023 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.107 -0.662 3.563 0.123 -0.104 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.117 -0.429 3.704 0.122 0.055 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.097 -0.713 3.367 0.110 -0.020 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.109 -0.710 3.791 0.117 0.060 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.120 -0.273 3.200 0.127 0.073 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.014 0.255 0.414 0.017 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.120 -0.257 3.115 0.126 0.057 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.022 0.231 0.799 0.025 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 181 0.999 0.097 -0.713 2.642 0.098 -0.104 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.108 -0.387 2.820 0.116 0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.129 -0.156 3.619 0.140 0.120 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.148 0.498 3.938 0.159 0.240 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.614 0.105 0.006 -0.523 3.269 0.303 0.867 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.303 SERIES 724021 AND 724051 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.867 SERIES 724022 AND 724041 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.871 0.579 0.489 0.730 0.728 0.661 0.644 0.657 0.590 0.586 SDEV 0.000 0.134 0.167 0.086 0.086 0.110 0.158 0.155 0.177 0.199 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.017 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.979 0.946 0.939 0.982 0.985 0.981 0.979 0.980 0.974 0.974 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.098 -0.538 3.032 0.111 -0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.064 0.022 0.046 88 262 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.32 1.00 1.04 1.36 7.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.064 0.052 0.012 0.023 0.032 0.004 0.020 -0.043 -0.030 -0.030 PACF -0.064 0.048 0.018 0.022 0.033 0.006 0.017 -0.043 -0.040 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.105 0.017 -0.042 0.022 0.070 -0.021 0.047 -0.063 -0.036 -0.039 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.105 2 -0.104 0.006 3 -0.104 0.002 -0.040 4 -0.103 0.002 -0.039 0.013 5 -0.104 0.005 -0.039 0.021 0.075 6 -0.104 0.005 -0.039 0.021 0.074 -0.008 7 -0.103 0.002 -0.040 0.023 0.074 -0.003 0.045 8 -0.101 0.001 -0.037 0.024 0.072 -0.003 0.040 -0.049 9 -0.104 0.003 -0.037 0.028 0.073 -0.005 0.040 -0.055 -0.054 10 -0.106 0.001 -0.035 0.028 0.077 -0.004 0.038 -0.055 -0.059 -0.049 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2518.66 2516.81 2518.80 2520.23 2522.17 2522.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2524.17 2525.48 2526.62 2527.60 2528.74 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.105 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.09 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.11 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.105 0.011 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 724011 1 0.081 0.238 2 724012 1 0.055 0.112 3 724021 1 0.047 0.178 4 724022 1 0.001 0.029 5 724031 1 0.097 0.204 6 724032 1 0.022 0.108 7 724041 1 0.001 -0.027 8 724042 1 0.003 0.013 9 724051 1 0.050 0.077 10 724052 1 0.008 0.040 11 724061 1 0.074 0.242 12 724062 1 0.018 0.133 13 724071 1 0.012 0.107 14 724072 1 0.003 0.001 15 724081 1 0.000 -0.014 16 724082 1 0.028 0.121 17 724091 1 0.023 0.049 18 724092 1 0.030 0.036 19 724101 1 0.013 -0.022 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 724102 1 0.046 0.091 21 724111 1 0.101 0.183 22 724112 1 0.020 0.023 23 724121 1 0.012 -0.104 24 724122 1 0.034 0.055 25 724131 1 0.003 -0.020 26 724132 1 0.004 0.060 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.030 0.074 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.030 0.087 MEDIAN 1 0.021 0.058 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.043 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.104 LOWER HINGE 1 0.004 0.013 UPPER HINGE 1 0.047 0.121 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.101 0.242 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 724011 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.101 -0.310 2.997 0.114 -0.037 2 724012 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.105 -0.452 3.174 0.115 -0.023 3 724021 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.123 -0.419 2.807 0.142 -0.022 4 724022 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.123 -0.378 2.764 0.137 -0.001 5 724031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.135 0.437 4.072 0.148 -0.049 6 724032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.116 0.000 3.032 0.131 -0.011 7 724041 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.129 -0.518 3.281 0.145 0.000 8 724042 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.129 -0.442 2.838 0.147 -0.001 9 724051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.105 -0.224 3.939 0.110 -0.016 10 724052 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.097 -0.350 4.012 0.100 -0.003 11 724061 1740 1974 235 1.000 0.143 -0.466 3.190 0.166 -0.030 12 724062 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.132 0.076 3.801 0.149 -0.001 13 724071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.125 -0.197 2.931 0.136 -0.001 14 724072 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.123 -0.251 2.643 0.138 0.000 15 724081 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.108 -0.142 3.157 0.121 0.000 16 724082 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.113 -0.109 2.776 0.124 -0.012 17 724091 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.142 -0.267 3.208 0.158 -0.007 18 724092 1670 1983 314 1.000 0.143 -0.258 3.086 0.162 -0.006 19 724101 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.132 -0.291 2.798 0.141 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 724102 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.122 -0.263 2.757 0.135 -0.018 21 724111 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.108 -0.134 3.801 0.118 -0.049 22 724112 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.108 -0.163 3.467 0.118 -0.003 23 724121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.107 -0.617 3.409 0.117 0.003 24 724122 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.117 -0.470 3.821 0.125 -0.009 25 724131 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.097 -0.699 3.336 0.109 0.001 26 724132 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.109 -0.758 3.924 0.121 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 239 1.000 0.119 -0.295 3.270 0.132 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.014 0.249 0.451 0.017 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.119 -0.279 3.182 0.133 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.000 0.022 0.289 0.963 0.027 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 181 1.000 0.097 -0.758 2.643 0.100 -0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.108 -0.452 2.838 0.118 -0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.129 -0.163 3.801 0.145 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 1.000 0.143 0.437 4.072 0.166 0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.631 0.096 0.005 -0.511 3.383 0.336 0.868 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.336 SERIES 724042 AND 724051 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.868 SERIES 724022 AND 724041 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 21. 91. 120. 171. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.871 0.593 0.498 0.751 0.756 0.670 0.647 0.670 0.610 0.602 SDEV 0.000 0.132 0.159 0.073 0.075 0.100 0.152 0.146 0.162 0.185 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.017 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.979 0.949 0.941 0.984 0.987 0.981 0.979 0.981 0.976 0.975 NSS 6.9 12.6 16.1 20.3 25.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.098 -0.566 3.126 0.115 -0.130 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.049 0.016 0.049 89 261 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.29 1.00 1.05 1.34 25.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.130 0.052 0.006 0.018 0.028 0.000 0.025 -0.042 -0.024 -0.031 PACF -0.130 0.036 0.017 0.019 0.032 0.006 0.023 -0.038 -0.038 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.107 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.130 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.037 0.015 0.023 0.031 0.007 0.020 -0.043 -0.034 -0.025 PACF 0.004 0.037 0.015 0.021 0.030 0.005 0.017 -0.045 -0.037 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1983 350 0.997 0.098 -0.555 3.096 0.114 -0.104 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.104 0.046 0.008 0.018 0.028 0.002 0.024 -0.042 -0.026 -0.030 PACF -0.104 0.036 0.017 0.020 0.031 0.006 0.022 -0.040 -0.038 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.104 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES