RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA172E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA172E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 117 1 Campbell Dolomite U. fos WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 117 2 Canada White Spruce 120 6816-13320 1175 1828 - 117 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 117110 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1568 1569 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 117115 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 2 GAPS / 1488 1499 / 1582 1586 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 117146 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1580 1580 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 117150 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1743 1751 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 117157 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1277 1281 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 0.205 0.135 0.816 2.957 0.255 0.865 2 117111 1221 1597 377 0.207 0.104 0.732 3.249 0.300 0.748 3 117115 1275 1586 312 0.165 0.105 1.586 6.106 0.273 0.874 4 117116 1421 1593 173 0.287 0.100 0.366 2.853 0.255 0.619 5 117117 1397 1588 192 0.214 0.159 0.957 3.077 0.300 0.859 6 117118 1175 1513 339 0.162 0.083 0.679 2.829 0.267 0.779 7 117146 1459 1683 225 0.184 0.099 1.004 3.322 0.248 0.820 8 117148 1413 1592 180 0.131 0.055 1.463 7.715 0.368 0.353 9 117150 1563 1828 266 0.124 0.050 0.562 3.173 0.338 0.402 10 117151 1406 1810 405 0.111 0.070 2.011 9.160 0.365 0.758 11 117154 1413 1729 317 0.206 0.118 1.095 4.402 0.326 0.777 12 117155 1226 1443 218 0.207 0.107 1.500 4.866 0.232 0.805 13 117157 1227 1458 232 0.125 0.076 1.136 4.082 0.379 0.648 14 117158 1385 1633 249 0.261 0.141 1.081 4.441 0.228 0.838 15 117191 1442 1640 199 0.163 0.096 0.661 2.546 0.225 0.888 16 117193 1465 1691 227 0.189 0.148 0.992 3.372 0.318 0.899 17 117199 1533 1818 286 0.183 0.088 0.961 3.821 0.247 0.771 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 17 FROM 1175 TO 1828 654 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 256 0.184 0.102 1.035 4.234 0.290 0.747 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.047 0.031 0.416 1.836 0.051 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 227 0.184 0.100 0.992 3.372 0.273 0.779 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.045 0.035 0.405 1.364 0.078 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 173 0.111 0.050 0.366 2.546 0.225 0.353 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.162 0.083 0.732 3.077 0.248 0.748 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 295 0.207 0.118 1.136 4.441 0.326 0.859 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 0.287 0.159 2.011 9.160 0.379 0.899 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 122 0.223 0.348 0.032 -0.387 2.504 -0.530 0.888 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.530 SERIES 117118 AND 117151 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.888 SERIES 117110 AND 117158 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.71 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 20.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. CORR 6. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 15. 36. 55. RBAR 0.135 0.188 0.468 0.468 0.139 0.048 -0.073 0.113 0.194 0.154 SDEV 0.223 0.262 0.271 0.243 0.288 0.327 0.480 0.323 0.280 0.344 SERR 0.091 0.107 0.086 0.077 0.091 0.104 0.152 0.083 0.047 0.046 EPS 0.391 0.515 0.815 0.815 0.447 0.221 -1.153 0.573 0.743 0.700 NSS 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 YEAR 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. CORR 66. 66. 66. 28. 36. 15. 15. 6. 6. 3. RBAR 0.288 0.330 0.340 0.616 0.206 0.115 0.210 0.398 0.145 0.263 SDEV 0.378 0.188 0.279 0.110 0.262 0.224 0.205 0.213 0.339 0.092 SERR 0.047 0.023 0.034 0.021 0.044 0.058 0.053 0.087 0.138 0.053 EPS 0.837 0.862 0.873 0.953 0.727 0.513 0.636 0.778 0.423 0.556 NSS 12.7 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.5 YEAR 1755. 1780. CORR 3. 3. RBAR 0.469 0.356 SDEV 0.193 0.207 SERR 0.111 0.120 EPS 0.726 0.624 NSS 3.0 3.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.157 0.061 0.890 3.645 0.238 0.692 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.496 0.373 0.010 95 559 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.54 1.92 1.01 1.28 3.21 45.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 232. 113. 173. 199. 312. 405. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.691 0.666 0.625 0.599 0.584 0.561 0.546 0.524 0.486 0.477 PACF 0.691 0.360 0.180 0.119 0.100 0.063 0.053 0.026 -0.027 0.021 95% C.L. 0.078 0.109 0.132 0.149 0.163 0.175 0.186 0.196 0.204 0.211 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.577 0.345 0.227 0.103 0.067 0.076 0.063 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 117110 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00209237 0.40829438 2 117111 1 0.12314757 0.03842153 0.00000000 0.19871642 3 117115 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020672 0.19325414 4 117116 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033989 0.25725031 5 117117 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176176 0.04405268 6 117118 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031327 0.21526191 7 117146 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072354 0.26511043 8 117148 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007177 0.13749534 9 117150 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007522 0.11321382 10 117151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015589 0.14226268 11 117154 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005040 0.19766521 12 117155 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043267 0.15927450 13 117157 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031190 0.08663037 14 117158 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095401 0.38053602 15 117191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010131 0.17359829 16 117193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147886 0.35766482 17 117199 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013105 0.20167243 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 1.586 3.294 7.598 63.803 0.259 0.668 2 117111 1221 1597 377 1.000 0.496 0.772 3.308 0.299 0.739 3 117115 1275 1586 312 0.996 0.634 1.834 7.279 0.268 0.868 4 117116 1421 1593 173 0.999 0.338 0.316 2.997 0.254 0.588 5 117117 1397 1588 192 1.001 0.586 1.236 4.578 0.300 0.706 6 117118 1175 1513 339 0.997 0.471 0.530 2.523 0.267 0.755 7 117146 1459 1683 225 0.993 0.408 0.453 3.283 0.247 0.719 8 117148 1413 1592 180 1.000 0.420 1.511 7.855 0.366 0.356 9 117150 1563 1828 266 1.000 0.397 0.565 3.167 0.332 0.405 10 117151 1406 1810 405 1.000 0.571 1.485 6.744 0.364 0.694 11 117154 1413 1729 317 1.000 0.579 1.132 4.483 0.325 0.777 12 117155 1226 1443 218 1.000 0.479 1.231 4.286 0.231 0.775 13 117157 1227 1458 232 0.992 0.596 1.433 5.250 0.372 0.644 14 117158 1385 1633 249 0.983 0.413 0.774 3.859 0.228 0.751 15 117191 1442 1640 199 0.999 0.583 0.630 2.462 0.224 0.883 16 117193 1465 1691 227 1.005 0.581 0.905 3.687 0.317 0.715 17 117199 1533 1818 286 1.000 0.464 0.789 3.445 0.247 0.757 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.032 0.665 1.364 7.824 0.288 0.694 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.143 0.683 1.663 14.515 0.050 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 1.000 0.496 0.905 3.859 0.268 0.719 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 113 0.003 0.163 0.803 1.968 0.078 0.088 MINIMUM VALUE 173 0.983 0.338 0.316 2.462 0.224 0.356 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.997 0.420 0.630 3.283 0.247 0.668 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 312 1.000 0.583 1.433 5.250 0.325 0.757 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.586 3.294 7.598 63.803 0.372 0.883 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 117110 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 117111 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 117115 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 117116 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 117117 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 117118 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 117146 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 117148 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 117150 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 117151 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 117154 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 117155 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 117157 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 117158 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 117191 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 117193 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 117199 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 1.106 0.611 1.371 5.771 0.257 0.760 2 117111 1221 1597 377 0.990 0.453 0.603 2.982 0.300 0.687 3 117115 1275 1586 312 0.987 0.440 0.996 4.274 0.269 0.730 4 117116 1421 1593 173 0.994 0.270 0.309 3.855 0.253 0.321 5 117117 1397 1588 192 0.959 0.378 0.706 3.329 0.299 0.460 6 117118 1175 1513 339 0.985 0.422 0.441 2.446 0.267 0.693 7 117146 1459 1683 225 0.990 0.364 0.669 4.912 0.247 0.620 8 117148 1413 1592 180 0.996 0.382 1.271 6.151 0.366 0.269 9 117150 1563 1828 266 0.996 0.375 0.657 3.655 0.332 0.367 10 117151 1406 1810 405 0.981 0.488 1.088 5.156 0.364 0.614 11 117154 1413 1729 317 0.996 0.387 0.709 3.942 0.326 0.502 12 117155 1226 1443 218 0.981 0.367 0.890 3.948 0.231 0.627 13 117157 1227 1458 232 0.987 0.434 0.648 3.358 0.372 0.456 14 117158 1385 1633 249 0.990 0.270 0.733 5.088 0.228 0.464 15 117191 1442 1640 199 1.013 0.344 1.185 5.254 0.225 0.577 16 117193 1465 1691 227 0.949 0.365 0.640 3.870 0.315 0.505 17 117199 1533 1818 286 0.974 0.365 0.557 3.079 0.247 0.640 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 0.993 0.395 0.793 4.181 0.288 0.547 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.033 0.080 0.296 1.047 0.050 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 0.990 0.378 0.706 3.942 0.269 0.577 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 113 0.014 0.070 0.357 1.730 0.079 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 173 0.949 0.270 0.309 2.446 0.225 0.269 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.981 0.365 0.640 3.358 0.247 0.460 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 312 0.996 0.434 0.996 5.088 0.326 0.640 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.106 0.611 1.371 6.151 0.372 0.760 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 122 0.226 0.187 0.017 -0.838 3.813 -0.403 0.573 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.403 SERIES 117118 AND 117151 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.573 SERIES 117115 AND 117191 145 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.71 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 20.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. CORR 6. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 15. 36. 55. RBAR 0.157 0.204 0.489 0.572 0.190 0.100 -0.042 0.162 0.275 0.218 SDEV 0.236 0.317 0.178 0.216 0.235 0.251 0.428 0.276 0.249 0.216 SERR 0.097 0.130 0.056 0.068 0.074 0.079 0.135 0.071 0.042 0.029 EPS 0.433 0.541 0.827 0.870 0.539 0.383 -0.464 0.670 0.819 0.781 NSS 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 YEAR 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. CORR 66. 66. 66. 28. 36. 15. 15. 6. 6. 3. RBAR 0.344 0.361 0.201 0.338 0.205 0.163 0.255 0.303 0.174 0.282 SDEV 0.262 0.172 0.240 0.162 0.178 0.189 0.170 0.290 0.279 0.059 SERR 0.032 0.021 0.030 0.031 0.030 0.049 0.044 0.118 0.114 0.034 EPS 0.869 0.877 0.769 0.865 0.725 0.611 0.692 0.698 0.476 0.579 NSS 12.7 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.5 YEAR 1755. 1780. CORR 3. 3. RBAR 0.424 0.459 SDEV 0.232 0.099 SERR 0.134 0.057 EPS 0.688 0.718 NSS 3.0 3.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.960 0.271 0.426 3.082 0.243 0.424 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.250 0.149 0.121 101 553 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.67 1.69 1.00 1.14 2.83 14.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.423 0.433 0.370 0.326 0.295 0.277 0.228 0.198 0.150 0.126 PACF 0.423 0.310 0.151 0.077 0.053 0.052 0.000 -0.010 -0.037 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.078 0.091 0.103 0.111 0.117 0.121 0.125 0.127 0.129 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.283 0.234 0.246 0.132 0.077 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.458 0.416 0.344 0.280 0.248 0.287 0.221 0.221 0.194 0.168 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.458 2 0.339 0.261 3 0.309 0.223 0.113 4 0.305 0.214 0.101 0.040 5 0.303 0.210 0.092 0.028 0.040 6 0.298 0.206 0.081 0.001 0.001 0.127 7 0.297 0.206 0.081 0.001 0.000 0.126 0.004 8 0.297 0.202 0.081 0.001 -0.002 0.120 -0.005 0.030 9 0.297 0.202 0.079 0.001 -0.002 0.119 -0.007 0.027 0.011 10 0.297 0.202 0.079 0.001 -0.002 0.119 -0.007 0.026 0.010 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4920.34 4768.31 4724.23 4717.82 4718.78 4719.75 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4711.09 4713.08 4714.50 4716.43 4718.42 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.309 0.223 0.113 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 137.55 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.309 0.318 0.280 0.192 0.158 0.123 0.095 0.075 0.058 0.0453 0.035 0.028 0.022 0.017 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.0038 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 117110 3 0.687 0.568 0.137 0.176 2 117111 3 0.587 0.321 0.262 0.279 3 117115 3 0.570 0.571 0.094 0.147 4 117116 3 0.110 0.307 0.037 0.045 5 117117 3 0.263 0.374 0.207 0.007 6 117118 3 0.535 0.523 0.064 0.222 7 117146 3 0.428 0.458 0.217 0.054 8 117148 3 0.080 0.256 0.053 0.021 9 117150 3 0.200 0.262 0.259 0.031 10 117151 3 0.450 0.393 0.306 0.056 11 117154 3 0.303 0.364 0.223 0.063 12 117155 3 0.435 0.460 0.187 0.095 13 117157 3 0.320 0.260 0.262 0.170 14 117158 3 0.283 0.375 0.131 0.086 15 117191 3 0.415 0.381 0.244 0.122 16 117193 3 0.339 0.314 0.253 0.135 17 117199 3 0.491 0.418 0.258 0.110 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.382 0.389 0.188 0.107 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.168 0.101 0.085 0.075 MEDIAN 3 0.415 0.375 0.217 0.095 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.208 0.144 0.127 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.080 0.256 0.037 0.007 LOWER HINGE 3 0.283 0.314 0.131 0.054 UPPER HINGE 3 0.491 0.458 0.258 0.147 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.687 0.571 0.306 0.279 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 1.000 0.341 1.597 7.784 0.348 0.032 2 117111 1221 1597 377 1.000 0.292 0.489 4.083 0.318 0.017 3 117115 1275 1586 312 1.000 0.292 0.667 4.120 0.320 -0.024 4 117116 1421 1593 173 1.000 0.254 0.332 4.322 0.286 0.005 5 117117 1397 1588 192 1.000 0.324 0.912 4.456 0.329 -0.007 6 117118 1175 1513 339 1.000 0.289 0.639 4.068 0.321 -0.031 7 117146 1459 1683 225 1.002 0.264 -0.068 5.005 0.299 -0.009 8 117148 1413 1592 180 1.000 0.366 1.172 5.719 0.409 -0.003 9 117150 1563 1828 266 1.000 0.336 0.598 3.869 0.373 -0.004 10 117151 1406 1810 405 1.000 0.363 0.672 3.773 0.404 -0.005 11 117154 1413 1729 317 1.000 0.322 0.440 3.367 0.364 0.000 12 117155 1226 1443 218 1.000 0.276 1.101 5.281 0.277 0.003 13 117157 1227 1458 232 1.000 0.361 0.370 2.945 0.413 -0.020 14 117158 1385 1633 249 1.000 0.235 0.424 3.928 0.268 -0.017 15 117191 1442 1640 199 1.000 0.261 1.061 5.503 0.270 0.008 16 117193 1465 1691 227 1.000 0.297 0.675 4.631 0.324 -0.007 17 117199 1533 1818 286 1.000 0.259 0.322 3.156 0.291 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.000 0.302 0.671 4.471 0.330 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.001 0.042 0.398 1.158 0.048 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 1.000 0.292 0.639 4.120 0.321 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 113 0.000 0.071 0.488 1.136 0.074 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.235 -0.068 2.945 0.268 -0.031 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.264 0.424 3.869 0.291 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 312 1.000 0.336 0.912 5.005 0.364 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.002 0.366 1.597 7.784 0.413 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 122 0.257 0.136 0.012 -0.222 3.495 -0.195 0.655 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.195 SERIES 117151 AND 117157 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.655 SERIES 117148 AND 117155 31 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.71 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 20.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. CORR 6. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 15. 36. 55. RBAR 0.264 0.269 0.299 0.395 0.374 0.309 0.202 0.266 0.271 0.288 SDEV 0.123 0.152 0.157 0.124 0.118 0.108 0.165 0.149 0.197 0.158 SERR 0.050 0.062 0.050 0.039 0.037 0.034 0.052 0.039 0.033 0.021 EPS 0.595 0.629 0.681 0.765 0.749 0.714 0.666 0.792 0.816 0.838 NSS 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 YEAR 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. CORR 66. 66. 66. 28. 36. 15. 15. 6. 6. 3. RBAR 0.366 0.398 0.325 0.353 0.292 0.312 0.330 0.419 0.286 0.267 SDEV 0.153 0.115 0.118 0.124 0.123 0.123 0.115 0.082 0.149 0.157 SERR 0.019 0.014 0.015 0.023 0.020 0.032 0.030 0.034 0.061 0.091 EPS 0.880 0.893 0.865 0.873 0.808 0.785 0.764 0.793 0.633 0.561 NSS 12.7 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.5 YEAR 1755. 1780. CORR 3. 3. RBAR 0.364 0.401 SDEV 0.102 0.026 SERR 0.059 0.015 EPS 0.632 0.667 NSS 3.0 3.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.986 0.216 0.304 3.482 0.258 -0.141 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.096 0.092 104 550 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.60 1.64 1.00 1.19 2.84 1762.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 0.000 -0.048 0.015 0.007 0.040 0.044 -0.008 0.011 -0.024 PACF -0.141 -0.020 -0.052 0.001 0.008 0.041 0.058 0.009 0.017 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.078 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.142 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.016 0.048 0.052 0.004 0.013 -0.018 PACF -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.016 0.048 0.052 0.004 0.013 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.079 0.079 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.985 0.256 0.413 3.286 0.211 0.481 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.480 0.444 0.381 0.303 0.265 0.241 0.209 0.155 0.134 0.093 PACF 0.480 0.278 0.132 0.025 0.026 0.040 0.019 -0.031 -0.009 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.078 0.095 0.107 0.115 0.119 0.123 0.126 0.128 0.129 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.304 0.312 0.231 0.131 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES