RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA172W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA172W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 117 1 Campbell Dolomite U. fos WIDTH_RING PCGL - 117 2 Canada White Spruce 120 6816-13320 1175 1828 - 117 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 117110 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1568 1569 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 117115 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1488 1499 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 117146 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1580 1580 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 117150 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1743 1751 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 0.251 0.149 0.770 2.846 0.213 0.885 2 117111 1221 1597 377 0.270 0.122 0.705 3.333 0.252 0.762 3 117115 1275 1586 312 0.218 0.129 1.530 5.810 0.224 0.892 4 117116 1421 1593 173 0.368 0.118 0.282 2.713 0.239 0.591 5 117117 1397 1588 192 0.290 0.184 1.024 3.383 0.236 0.866 6 117118 1175 1513 339 0.215 0.103 0.839 3.335 0.230 0.795 7 117146 1459 1683 225 0.250 0.123 1.105 4.051 0.193 0.867 8 117148 1413 1592 180 0.182 0.070 1.440 7.467 0.315 0.400 9 117150 1563 1828 266 0.178 0.058 0.455 3.365 0.269 0.430 10 117151 1406 1810 405 0.163 0.087 1.838 8.032 0.290 0.774 11 117154 1413 1729 317 0.262 0.137 1.076 4.189 0.279 0.797 12 117155 1226 1443 218 0.286 0.132 1.290 4.071 0.209 0.811 13 117157 1227 1458 232 0.199 0.115 0.959 3.338 0.293 0.767 14 117158 1385 1633 249 0.328 0.163 1.083 4.339 0.199 0.854 15 117191 1442 1640 199 0.219 0.112 0.632 2.341 0.171 0.889 16 117193 1465 1691 227 0.242 0.173 0.966 3.442 0.250 0.904 17 117199 1533 1818 286 0.240 0.105 0.960 3.888 0.206 0.792 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 17 FROM 1175 TO 1828 654 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 257 0.245 0.122 0.997 4.114 0.239 0.769 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.054 0.034 0.387 1.575 0.040 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 0.242 0.122 0.966 3.442 0.236 0.797 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 101 0.055 0.033 0.335 0.854 0.060 0.100 MINIMUM VALUE 173 0.163 0.058 0.282 2.341 0.171 0.400 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.215 0.105 0.770 3.335 0.209 0.767 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 0.270 0.137 1.105 4.189 0.269 0.867 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 0.368 0.184 1.838 8.032 0.315 0.904 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 122 0.220 0.346 0.031 -0.369 2.446 -0.532 0.904 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.532 SERIES 117118 AND 117151 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.904 SERIES 117110 AND 117158 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.71 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 20.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. CORR 6. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 15. 36. 55. RBAR 0.208 0.215 0.439 0.430 0.123 0.026 -0.062 0.092 0.215 0.146 SDEV 0.247 0.261 0.298 0.320 0.353 0.317 0.533 0.377 0.264 0.331 SERR 0.101 0.107 0.094 0.101 0.112 0.100 0.169 0.097 0.044 0.045 EPS 0.519 0.557 0.796 0.790 0.412 0.129 -0.864 0.515 0.766 0.686 NSS 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 YEAR 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. CORR 66. 66. 66. 28. 36. 15. 15. 6. 6. 3. RBAR 0.275 0.328 0.358 0.652 0.229 0.131 0.187 0.394 0.164 0.345 SDEV 0.372 0.204 0.288 0.090 0.282 0.250 0.265 0.260 0.357 0.118 SERR 0.046 0.025 0.035 0.017 0.047 0.065 0.068 0.106 0.146 0.068 EPS 0.828 0.860 0.881 0.959 0.752 0.548 0.602 0.776 0.458 0.648 NSS 12.7 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.5 YEAR 1755. 1780. CORR 3. 3. RBAR 0.519 0.383 SDEV 0.193 0.198 SERR 0.112 0.115 EPS 0.764 0.651 NSS 3.0 3.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.217 0.074 0.827 3.552 0.198 0.719 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.443 0.330 0.011 80 574 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.74 2.30 1.00 1.28 3.58 36.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 232. 113. 173. 199. 312. 405. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.718 0.694 0.650 0.618 0.598 0.580 0.552 0.524 0.476 0.469 PACF 0.718 0.369 0.169 0.096 0.086 0.069 0.025 0.003 -0.057 0.024 95% C.L. 0.078 0.111 0.135 0.153 0.168 0.180 0.191 0.201 0.209 0.216 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.605 0.369 0.247 0.099 0.044 0.057 0.070 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 117110 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232542 0.47707167 2 117111 1 0.19213334 0.03549612 0.00000000 0.25587004 3 117115 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029641 0.26094091 4 117116 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020308 0.35065600 5 117117 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00202763 0.09475076 6 117118 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045659 0.29278177 7 117146 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084492 0.34557030 8 117148 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019792 0.19985598 9 117150 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003089 0.17239873 10 117151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019987 0.20311637 11 117154 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000369 0.26102245 12 117155 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051258 0.22988205 13 117157 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049923 0.14054635 14 117158 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121497 0.47954205 15 117191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011051 0.22989494 16 117193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178440 0.44505125 17 117199 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020700 0.26984394 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 1.128 0.712 3.882 20.704 0.212 0.802 2 117111 1221 1597 377 1.000 0.439 0.695 3.200 0.252 0.742 3 117115 1275 1586 312 0.996 0.578 1.803 7.113 0.219 0.884 4 117116 1421 1593 173 1.000 0.317 0.254 2.757 0.238 0.576 5 117117 1397 1588 192 0.996 0.466 1.052 4.075 0.236 0.727 6 117118 1175 1513 339 0.998 0.419 0.611 2.894 0.229 0.751 7 117146 1459 1683 225 0.995 0.382 0.660 4.304 0.192 0.794 8 117148 1413 1592 180 1.000 0.381 1.520 7.780 0.313 0.403 9 117150 1563 1828 266 1.000 0.327 0.472 3.316 0.265 0.443 10 117151 1406 1810 405 1.000 0.482 1.314 5.952 0.289 0.722 11 117154 1413 1729 317 1.000 0.525 1.078 4.193 0.278 0.794 12 117155 1226 1443 218 1.000 0.435 1.126 3.914 0.208 0.788 13 117157 1227 1458 232 0.993 0.549 1.134 4.015 0.292 0.749 14 117158 1385 1633 249 0.985 0.367 0.843 3.918 0.199 0.757 15 117191 1442 1640 199 1.000 0.510 0.598 2.266 0.170 0.884 16 117193 1465 1691 227 1.001 0.500 0.885 3.626 0.249 0.730 17 117199 1533 1818 286 1.000 0.415 0.685 3.314 0.206 0.776 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.005 0.459 1.095 5.138 0.238 0.725 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.032 0.100 0.818 4.275 0.040 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 1.000 0.439 0.885 3.918 0.236 0.751 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 113 0.004 0.128 0.474 0.990 0.057 0.068 MINIMUM VALUE 173 0.985 0.317 0.254 2.266 0.170 0.403 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.996 0.382 0.660 3.314 0.208 0.727 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 312 1.000 0.510 1.134 4.304 0.265 0.794 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.128 0.712 3.882 20.704 0.313 0.884 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 117110 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 117111 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 117115 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 117116 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 117117 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 117118 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 117146 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 117148 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 117150 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 117151 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 117154 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 117155 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 117157 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 117158 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 117191 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 117193 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 117199 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 0.991 0.282 0.689 4.115 0.211 0.560 2 117111 1221 1597 377 0.991 0.403 0.563 2.953 0.252 0.699 3 117115 1275 1586 312 0.988 0.394 0.996 4.430 0.219 0.762 4 117116 1421 1593 173 0.995 0.256 0.316 3.284 0.238 0.331 5 117117 1397 1588 192 0.975 0.318 0.609 3.669 0.234 0.535 6 117118 1175 1513 339 0.989 0.380 0.529 2.691 0.229 0.703 7 117146 1459 1683 225 0.991 0.335 0.804 4.799 0.192 0.706 8 117148 1413 1592 180 0.996 0.348 1.310 6.281 0.313 0.324 9 117150 1563 1828 266 0.996 0.305 0.670 4.321 0.265 0.383 10 117151 1406 1810 405 0.986 0.409 0.948 4.787 0.289 0.641 11 117154 1413 1729 317 0.993 0.339 0.551 3.396 0.279 0.528 12 117155 1226 1443 218 0.983 0.329 0.930 4.185 0.207 0.644 13 117157 1227 1458 232 0.981 0.402 0.715 3.311 0.292 0.608 14 117158 1385 1633 249 0.992 0.241 0.801 5.072 0.199 0.487 15 117191 1442 1640 199 1.001 0.266 0.702 3.667 0.171 0.599 16 117193 1465 1691 227 0.962 0.308 0.753 3.941 0.247 0.491 17 117199 1533 1818 286 0.979 0.333 0.450 2.857 0.206 0.690 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 0.988 0.332 0.726 3.986 0.238 0.570 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.009 0.053 0.234 0.923 0.040 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 0.991 0.333 0.702 3.941 0.234 0.599 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 113 0.011 0.075 0.240 1.119 0.058 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 173 0.962 0.241 0.316 2.691 0.171 0.324 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.983 0.305 0.563 3.311 0.207 0.491 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 312 0.993 0.380 0.804 4.430 0.265 0.690 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.001 0.409 1.310 6.281 0.313 0.762 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 122 0.235 0.197 0.018 -0.927 4.088 -0.402 0.562 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.402 SERIES 117118 AND 117151 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.562 SERIES 117117 AND 117199 56 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.71 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 20.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. CORR 6. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 15. 36. 55. RBAR 0.181 0.240 0.472 0.544 0.171 0.066 -0.021 0.133 0.275 0.215 SDEV 0.196 0.312 0.195 0.260 0.308 0.257 0.469 0.332 0.284 0.213 SERR 0.080 0.128 0.062 0.082 0.097 0.081 0.148 0.086 0.047 0.029 EPS 0.475 0.592 0.817 0.857 0.508 0.281 -0.192 0.618 0.819 0.779 NSS 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 YEAR 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. CORR 66. 66. 66. 28. 36. 15. 15. 6. 6. 3. RBAR 0.330 0.371 0.241 0.382 0.276 0.208 0.226 0.300 0.202 0.358 SDEV 0.257 0.189 0.229 0.142 0.163 0.225 0.232 0.343 0.308 0.083 SERR 0.032 0.023 0.028 0.027 0.027 0.058 0.060 0.140 0.126 0.048 EPS 0.862 0.881 0.808 0.886 0.796 0.679 0.658 0.696 0.522 0.661 NSS 12.7 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.5 YEAR 1755. 1780. CORR 3. 3. RBAR 0.475 0.495 SDEV 0.235 0.075 SERR 0.136 0.043 EPS 0.731 0.746 NSS 3.0 3.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.965 0.237 0.374 3.251 0.201 0.458 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.213 0.129 0.099 85 569 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.70 1.49 1.00 1.18 2.68 20.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.457 0.454 0.379 0.333 0.304 0.303 0.231 0.196 0.158 0.120 PACF 0.457 0.310 0.131 0.066 0.055 0.081 -0.021 -0.030 -0.026 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.078 0.093 0.106 0.114 0.120 0.124 0.129 0.131 0.133 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.305 0.268 0.251 0.112 0.066 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.462 0.392 0.314 0.264 0.222 0.263 0.199 0.217 0.162 0.149 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.462 2 0.356 0.228 3 0.335 0.195 0.092 4 0.330 0.185 0.074 0.053 5 0.329 0.182 0.068 0.043 0.032 6 0.325 0.177 0.060 0.021 -0.008 0.121 7 0.325 0.177 0.060 0.021 -0.008 0.122 -0.002 8 0.325 0.170 0.061 0.020 -0.011 0.111 -0.021 0.059 9 0.326 0.170 0.063 0.019 -0.011 0.113 -0.018 0.065 -0.019 10 0.326 0.169 0.063 0.019 -0.011 0.112 -0.018 0.064 -0.021 0.004 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4712.01 4557.31 4524.41 4520.84 4520.98 4522.31 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4514.65 4516.65 4516.40 4518.16 4520.15 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.335 0.195 0.092 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 135.19 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.335 0.308 0.261 0.178 0.139 0.105 0.079 0.060 0.045 0.0341 0.026 0.019 0.015 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0021 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 117110 3 0.396 0.369 0.240 0.121 2 117111 3 0.591 0.351 0.252 0.257 3 117115 3 0.611 0.633 0.027 0.170 4 117116 3 0.116 0.327 -0.001 0.060 5 117117 3 0.329 0.492 0.169 -0.066 6 117118 3 0.545 0.534 0.050 0.233 7 117146 3 0.533 0.542 0.175 0.073 8 117148 3 0.116 0.311 0.051 0.032 9 117150 3 0.214 0.275 0.259 0.030 10 117151 3 0.488 0.399 0.341 0.038 11 117154 3 0.315 0.409 0.203 0.031 12 117155 3 0.439 0.511 0.152 0.068 13 117157 3 0.479 0.321 0.235 0.250 14 117158 3 0.300 0.426 0.097 0.048 15 117191 3 0.416 0.441 0.261 0.015 16 117193 3 0.319 0.316 0.242 0.124 17 117199 3 0.547 0.450 0.263 0.103 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.397 0.418 0.177 0.093 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.155 0.099 0.100 0.090 MEDIAN 3 0.416 0.409 0.203 0.068 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.218 0.165 0.155 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.116 0.275 -0.001 -0.066 LOWER HINGE 3 0.315 0.327 0.097 0.032 UPPER HINGE 3 0.533 0.492 0.252 0.124 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.611 0.633 0.341 0.257 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 117110 1449 1642 194 1.000 0.220 0.675 4.436 0.245 -0.011 2 117111 1221 1597 377 1.000 0.258 0.551 4.101 0.275 0.020 3 117115 1275 1586 312 1.000 0.248 0.552 3.900 0.275 -0.029 4 117116 1421 1593 173 1.000 0.241 0.290 3.530 0.272 0.002 5 117117 1397 1588 192 1.000 0.258 0.743 4.227 0.276 -0.012 6 117118 1175 1513 339 1.000 0.256 0.750 4.408 0.281 -0.012 7 117146 1459 1683 225 1.001 0.221 -0.169 5.809 0.251 -0.013 8 117148 1413 1592 180 1.000 0.327 1.115 5.353 0.357 -0.008 9 117150 1563 1828 266 1.000 0.271 0.631 4.621 0.299 -0.006 10 117151 1406 1810 405 1.000 0.293 0.689 3.936 0.327 -0.002 11 117154 1413 1729 317 1.000 0.280 0.436 3.025 0.317 -0.001 12 117155 1226 1443 218 1.000 0.246 1.212 5.883 0.245 -0.002 13 117157 1227 1458 232 1.000 0.291 0.276 3.097 0.329 -0.012 14 117158 1385 1633 249 1.000 0.209 0.434 3.615 0.241 -0.010 15 117191 1442 1640 199 1.000 0.202 0.936 6.427 0.206 -0.002 16 117193 1465 1691 227 1.000 0.255 0.854 4.737 0.271 -0.010 17 117199 1533 1818 286 1.000 0.222 0.268 3.051 0.249 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.000 0.253 0.603 4.362 0.277 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.000 0.033 0.339 1.022 0.038 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 232 1.000 0.255 0.631 4.227 0.275 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 113 0.000 0.048 0.316 1.122 0.051 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.202 -0.169 3.025 0.206 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.222 0.434 3.615 0.249 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 312 1.000 0.271 0.750 4.737 0.299 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.001 0.327 1.212 6.427 0.357 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 122 0.273 0.129 0.012 -0.027 2.946 -0.070 0.625 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.070 SERIES 117151 AND 117157 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.625 SERIES 117110 AND 117158 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.71 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 20.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. CORR 6. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 15. 36. 55. RBAR 0.261 0.298 0.296 0.408 0.381 0.281 0.231 0.273 0.272 0.296 SDEV 0.106 0.124 0.169 0.140 0.137 0.131 0.170 0.142 0.196 0.165 SERR 0.043 0.051 0.054 0.044 0.043 0.041 0.054 0.037 0.033 0.022 EPS 0.592 0.661 0.677 0.775 0.754 0.685 0.703 0.797 0.817 0.843 NSS 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 YEAR 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. CORR 66. 66. 66. 28. 36. 15. 15. 6. 6. 3. RBAR 0.355 0.415 0.377 0.384 0.296 0.321 0.278 0.415 0.333 0.348 SDEV 0.167 0.132 0.124 0.132 0.134 0.134 0.169 0.095 0.148 0.124 SERR 0.021 0.016 0.015 0.025 0.022 0.035 0.044 0.039 0.060 0.072 EPS 0.875 0.900 0.889 0.887 0.812 0.792 0.716 0.791 0.683 0.651 NSS 12.7 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.5 YEAR 1755. 1780. CORR 3. 3. RBAR 0.443 0.445 SDEV 0.107 0.056 SERR 0.062 0.033 EPS 0.704 0.706 NSS 3.0 3.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.989 0.183 0.263 3.556 0.221 -0.152 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.231 0.131 0.030 96 558 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.72 1.00 1.16 2.88 21.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.152 -0.007 -0.029 0.003 -0.001 0.044 0.033 0.024 -0.033 -0.002 PACF -0.152 -0.031 -0.036 -0.007 -0.003 0.044 0.048 0.040 -0.019 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.078 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 -0.153 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.004 0.008 0.051 0.047 0.029 -0.026 -0.005 PACF -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.004 0.008 0.051 0.047 0.029 -0.026 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.079 0.079 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1175 1828 654 0.988 0.213 0.373 3.317 0.175 0.474 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.473 0.410 0.339 0.257 0.220 0.204 0.170 0.131 0.076 0.063 PACF 0.473 0.239 0.106 0.015 0.026 0.046 0.014 -0.015 -0.050 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.078 0.094 0.104 0.111 0.115 0.117 0.119 0.121 0.122 0.122 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.277 0.337 0.200 0.105 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES