RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO553I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO553I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 756 1 Pike Peaks DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 756 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3600 3920-10502 1530 1983 756 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 756061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 756062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 3.771 0.242 1.507 9.269 0.050 0.383 2 756012 1563 1983 421 3.903 0.346 1.751 9.764 0.046 0.729 3 756021 1677 1983 307 3.281 0.174 0.522 3.428 0.041 0.512 4 756022 1668 1983 316 3.404 0.211 0.591 4.331 0.041 0.589 5 756031 1771 1983 213 2.994 0.210 0.288 3.386 0.048 0.622 6 756032 1795 1983 189 3.030 0.250 0.788 3.697 0.046 0.739 7 756041 1530 1983 454 3.299 0.216 0.584 2.999 0.040 0.694 8 756042 1576 1983 408 3.192 0.234 1.019 4.993 0.042 0.708 9 756051 1793 1983 191 3.447 0.181 0.890 5.597 0.031 0.622 10 756052 1789 1983 195 3.460 0.214 2.344 15.883 0.037 0.568 11 756061 1708 1983 276 3.461 0.241 1.411 8.956 0.047 0.583 12 756062 1666 1983 318 3.616 0.343 1.319 6.151 0.048 0.736 13 756071 1674 1983 310 3.361 0.255 0.568 3.259 0.055 0.548 14 756072 1652 1983 332 3.453 0.245 1.186 6.326 0.048 0.548 15 756081 1729 1983 255 3.333 0.200 0.162 3.280 0.045 0.515 16 756082 1646 1983 338 3.641 0.379 1.586 7.823 0.052 0.718 17 756091 1655 1983 329 3.641 0.300 1.379 6.068 0.047 0.681 18 756092 1660 1983 324 3.258 0.240 0.592 4.140 0.053 0.527 19 756101 1781 1983 203 3.657 0.214 0.595 3.927 0.045 0.470 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 3.434 0.232 0.935 7.625 0.049 0.428 21 756111 1748 1983 236 3.473 0.184 0.155 3.372 0.039 0.573 22 756112 1755 1983 229 3.616 0.212 0.197 3.088 0.039 0.641 23 756121 1724 1983 260 3.322 0.210 0.186 3.205 0.037 0.703 24 756122 1734 1983 250 3.265 0.210 0.723 3.349 0.043 0.643 25 756131 1644 1983 340 3.906 0.207 0.211 3.105 0.039 0.550 26 756132 1652 1983 332 3.700 0.214 -0.011 3.782 0.044 0.546 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 3.458 0.237 0.826 5.416 0.044 0.599 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.233 0.051 0.591 3.009 0.006 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 3.450 0.215 0.659 4.034 0.045 0.586 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.342 0.035 1.031 2.977 0.007 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 189 2.994 0.174 -0.011 2.999 0.031 0.383 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 3.299 0.210 0.288 3.349 0.040 0.546 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 3.641 0.245 1.319 6.326 0.048 0.694 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 3.906 0.379 2.344 15.883 0.055 0.739 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.221 0.181 0.010 -0.222 2.885 -0.381 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.381 SERIES 756022 AND 756082 316 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR -0.064 0.214 0.335 0.445 0.260 0.261 0.327 0.431 0.323 0.329 SDEV 0.016 0.298 0.279 0.168 0.210 0.248 0.213 0.156 0.235 0.186 SERR 0.009 0.122 0.114 0.069 0.031 0.026 0.019 0.012 0.016 0.011 EPS -0.296 0.522 0.739 0.890 0.830 0.850 0.901 0.941 0.920 0.927 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.358 0.359 0.299 0.305 0.280 SDEV 0.227 0.206 0.221 0.217 0.235 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.935 0.936 0.917 0.919 0.910 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 3.507 0.176 0.887 4.573 0.034 0.607 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.543 0.610 -1.783 64 390 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.08 0.17 1.00 1.03 1.20 3.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 308. 96. 189. 236. 332. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.606 0.513 0.508 0.485 0.461 0.463 0.408 0.449 0.392 0.358 PACF 0.606 0.231 0.216 0.133 0.095 0.107 -0.004 0.136 -0.031 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.094 0.124 0.141 0.156 0.169 0.180 0.190 0.198 0.206 0.213 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.451 0.366 0.093 0.134 0.082 0.052 0.105 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 1 0.55750620 0.10147515 0.00000000 3.75905323 2 756012 1 1.07909453 0.02086868 0.00000000 3.78106689 3 756021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033614 3.22924376 4 756022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00116182 3.21971297 5 756031 1 0.59536147 0.07935944 0.00000000 2.96061850 6 756032 1 1.36111879 0.00242711 0.00000000 1.94018304 7 756041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030897 3.36923409 8 756042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040440 3.10950565 9 756051 1 0.47889239 0.02628347 0.00000000 3.35344577 10 756052 1 1.17121470 0.20037453 0.00000000 3.43292809 11 756061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041437 3.40434313 12 756062 1 1.26331544 0.03209038 0.00000000 3.49254417 13 756071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027431 3.31882858 14 756072 1 0.20783789 0.01489552 0.00000000 3.41144848 15 756081 1 0.37641394 0.00369417 0.00000000 3.08988190 16 756082 1 1.05011833 0.00755163 0.00000000 3.26277065 17 756091 1 1.08630562 0.02543779 0.00000000 3.51242518 18 756092 1 0.63275945 0.00593320 0.00000000 2.97830606 19 756101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095013 3.56047559 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128466 3.61438704 21 756111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065546 3.39550638 22 756112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012651 3.60104108 23 756121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073413 3.41780400 24 756122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047187 3.32405972 25 756131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063853 3.79760122 26 756132 1 0.33905512 0.01441505 0.00000000 3.63013911 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.062 0.942 5.998 0.050 0.346 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.066 0.595 4.046 0.046 0.567 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.052 0.411 3.176 0.040 0.495 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.053 0.677 4.364 0.041 0.450 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.063 0.063 3.280 0.048 0.539 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.067 1.096 5.752 0.046 0.601 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.064 0.618 3.015 0.040 0.681 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.072 1.248 5.945 0.042 0.700 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.040 0.380 5.334 0.031 0.377 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.051 0.648 5.306 0.036 0.450 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.069 1.602 10.583 0.047 0.576 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.066 0.532 3.957 0.048 0.537 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.075 0.553 3.415 0.055 0.542 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.069 1.033 6.030 0.048 0.521 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.057 0.407 3.540 0.045 0.458 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.073 2.350 15.130 0.052 0.429 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.053 0.803 4.424 0.047 0.300 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.058 0.937 5.539 0.053 0.219 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.056 0.429 3.851 0.045 0.432 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.060 0.961 6.397 0.049 0.288 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.051 0.237 3.464 0.039 0.546 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.059 0.193 3.070 0.039 0.639 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.061 0.414 3.057 0.036 0.681 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.063 0.716 3.406 0.043 0.630 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.051 0.170 3.186 0.039 0.509 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.054 0.252 4.166 0.044 0.468 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.060 0.703 4.978 0.044 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.008 0.496 2.646 0.006 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.061 0.606 4.106 0.045 0.515 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.013 0.535 2.346 0.007 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.040 0.063 3.015 0.031 0.219 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.053 0.407 3.406 0.040 0.432 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.066 0.942 5.752 0.048 0.576 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.075 2.350 15.130 0.055 0.700 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 756012 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 756021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 756022 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 756031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 756032 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 756041 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 756042 -67 273 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 756051 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 756052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 756061 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 756062 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 756071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 756072 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 756081 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 756082 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 756091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 756092 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 756101 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 756111 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 756112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 756121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 756122 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 756131 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 756132 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.060 0.914 6.095 0.050 0.314 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.062 0.706 4.462 0.046 0.516 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.048 0.510 3.592 0.040 0.408 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.048 0.759 4.687 0.041 0.336 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.053 -0.008 3.173 0.048 0.377 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.064 1.074 5.793 0.046 0.572 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.054 0.360 2.969 0.040 0.533 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.064 1.336 6.742 0.042 0.626 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.037 0.543 5.682 0.031 0.277 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.049 0.763 5.712 0.036 0.400 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.059 1.234 8.184 0.047 0.436 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.062 0.488 4.208 0.048 0.484 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.070 0.628 3.939 0.055 0.470 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.064 1.112 6.396 0.048 0.448 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.052 0.450 3.790 0.045 0.341 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.064 2.601 17.535 0.052 0.298 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.049 1.045 5.435 0.047 0.189 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.057 0.999 5.877 0.053 0.200 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.052 0.598 4.444 0.045 0.325 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.059 1.187 7.614 0.049 0.262 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.049 0.143 3.203 0.039 0.488 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.048 0.450 3.932 0.039 0.457 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.046 0.486 3.599 0.036 0.448 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.056 0.517 3.260 0.043 0.526 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.049 0.070 3.211 0.039 0.482 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.051 0.358 4.714 0.044 0.402 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.055 0.743 5.317 0.044 0.408 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.008 0.523 2.872 0.006 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.054 0.613 4.575 0.045 0.422 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.014 0.596 2.279 0.007 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.037 -0.008 2.969 0.031 0.189 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.049 0.450 3.599 0.040 0.325 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.062 1.045 5.877 0.048 0.484 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.070 2.601 17.535 0.055 0.626 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.290 0.107 0.006 0.086 2.951 -0.004 0.645 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.004 SERIES 756012 AND 756101 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.645 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.018 0.197 0.365 0.442 0.294 0.276 0.343 0.434 0.352 0.324 SDEV 0.134 0.304 0.235 0.155 0.194 0.208 0.156 0.150 0.193 0.179 SERR 0.077 0.124 0.096 0.063 0.029 0.022 0.014 0.011 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.064 0.495 0.764 0.889 0.852 0.859 0.907 0.942 0.928 0.925 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.383 0.369 0.318 0.329 0.290 SDEV 0.194 0.198 0.199 0.198 0.221 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.942 0.938 0.924 0.927 0.914 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.997 0.037 0.630 5.419 0.034 0.289 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.247 0.153 -0.110 141 313 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.72 1.00 1.10 1.82 25.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.288 0.148 0.068 0.146 0.044 0.064 0.061 0.128 0.027 0.005 PACF 0.288 0.070 0.009 0.127 -0.035 0.039 0.035 0.088 -0.041 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.094 0.101 0.103 0.104 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.108 0.108 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.091 0.269 0.078 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.215 0.126 -0.026 0.059 -0.051 0.037 0.087 0.147 0.018 0.058 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.215 2 0.197 0.083 3 0.203 0.098 -0.072 4 0.209 0.091 -0.087 0.072 5 0.214 0.084 -0.080 0.086 -0.070 6 0.217 0.080 -0.077 0.082 -0.080 0.049 7 0.212 0.088 -0.084 0.090 -0.088 0.028 0.096 8 0.203 0.085 -0.076 0.081 -0.080 0.020 0.075 0.096 9 0.207 0.088 -0.075 0.078 -0.077 0.016 0.079 0.105 -0.041 10 0.209 0.084 -0.078 0.077 -0.073 0.013 0.082 0.101 -0.049 0.042 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2323.74 2304.20 2303.04 2302.67 2302.32 2302.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2303.01 2300.84 2298.60 2299.84 2301.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 0.084 -0.080 0.086 -0.070 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.73 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 107.22 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.214 0.130 -0.035 0.073 -0.049 -0.005 -0.023 0.007 -0.009 0.0035 -0.002 0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 756011 5 0.134 0.252 0.102 0.065 0.060 0.043 2 756012 5 0.341 0.349 0.211 0.069 0.051 0.041 3 756021 5 0.211 0.338 0.161 0.007 0.092 -0.072 4 756022 5 0.152 0.277 0.069 0.114 0.024 0.070 5 756031 5 0.230 0.338 0.161 -0.103 0.000 0.087 6 756032 5 0.353 0.549 0.084 -0.062 -0.009 0.062 7 756041 5 0.339 0.399 0.177 0.005 0.095 0.034 8 756042 5 0.429 0.499 0.130 0.009 0.109 -0.007 9 756051 5 0.105 0.297 -0.027 -0.111 -0.007 0.094 10 756052 5 0.193 0.445 -0.100 -0.065 0.060 -0.128 11 756061 5 0.217 0.368 0.144 0.006 0.014 0.016 12 756062 5 0.286 0.368 0.102 0.152 -0.025 0.080 13 756071 5 0.295 0.335 0.107 0.140 0.148 -0.052 14 756072 5 0.250 0.346 0.145 0.056 0.126 -0.054 15 756081 5 0.165 0.314 0.144 -0.102 0.144 -0.035 16 756082 5 0.150 0.245 0.024 0.061 0.210 0.008 17 756091 5 0.059 0.189 0.038 0.001 0.127 -0.099 18 756092 5 0.121 0.151 0.210 -0.043 0.150 0.032 19 756101 5 0.124 0.295 0.091 0.016 0.066 -0.047 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 756102 5 0.168 0.164 0.117 0.163 0.202 -0.072 21 756111 5 0.261 0.431 0.089 0.050 -0.007 0.036 22 756112 5 0.284 0.329 0.216 0.025 0.059 0.049 23 756121 5 0.226 0.407 0.084 -0.020 0.092 -0.026 24 756122 5 0.336 0.383 0.117 0.055 0.138 0.025 25 756131 5 0.281 0.376 0.158 -0.013 0.106 0.038 26 756132 5 0.212 0.349 0.132 -0.097 0.186 0.015 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.228 0.338 0.111 0.015 0.085 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.090 0.093 0.071 0.078 0.068 0.060 MEDIAN 5 0.222 0.342 0.117 0.008 0.092 0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.133 0.088 0.074 0.104 0.113 0.090 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.059 0.151 -0.100 -0.111 -0.025 -0.128 LOWER HINGE 5 0.152 0.295 0.084 -0.043 0.024 -0.047 UPPER HINGE 5 0.286 0.383 0.158 0.061 0.138 0.043 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.429 0.549 0.216 0.163 0.210 0.094 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.056 1.437 9.010 0.057 -0.001 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.050 0.727 5.742 0.055 -0.012 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.043 0.513 3.873 0.047 0.011 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.045 0.706 4.976 0.046 -0.003 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.049 0.170 2.909 0.055 -0.021 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.052 0.851 5.085 0.057 -0.002 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.043 0.241 3.324 0.049 -0.002 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.049 0.525 4.569 0.052 0.000 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.035 0.916 6.978 0.034 0.009 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.044 1.490 9.568 0.041 -0.005 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.052 1.487 9.960 0.055 0.001 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.053 0.661 4.833 0.056 -0.005 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.059 0.850 5.001 0.064 0.008 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.055 1.469 7.605 0.056 -0.005 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.047 0.560 4.283 0.050 0.003 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.060 2.298 15.681 0.057 -0.003 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.048 1.104 5.728 0.051 0.001 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.053 1.142 6.471 0.056 0.000 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.049 0.759 4.510 0.051 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.054 1.595 9.711 0.053 0.002 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.042 0.000 2.933 0.047 -0.002 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.041 0.351 3.413 0.045 0.019 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.041 0.627 4.871 0.044 0.000 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.046 0.447 3.711 0.051 -0.003 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.042 0.164 3.555 0.047 -0.007 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.045 0.443 4.238 0.050 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.048 0.828 5.867 0.051 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.006 0.543 2.918 0.006 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.048 0.717 4.924 0.051 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.009 0.695 3.105 0.009 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.035 0.000 2.909 0.034 -0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.043 0.447 3.873 0.047 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.053 1.142 6.978 0.056 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.060 2.298 15.681 0.064 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.361 0.086 0.005 0.347 3.572 0.147 0.670 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.147 SERIES 756012 AND 756101 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.670 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.197 0.292 0.465 0.438 0.365 0.346 0.396 0.461 0.434 0.403 SDEV 0.184 0.170 0.185 0.196 0.167 0.186 0.151 0.150 0.112 0.147 SERR 0.106 0.070 0.075 0.080 0.025 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.481 0.623 0.830 0.888 0.889 0.894 0.925 0.948 0.948 0.946 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.387 0.412 0.406 0.419 0.371 SDEV 0.152 0.154 0.139 0.147 0.172 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.943 0.948 0.947 0.949 0.939 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.034 0.870 5.555 0.038 -0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.321 0.202 -0.168 133 321 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.53 1.01 1.10 1.63 14.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.028 -0.085 -0.055 -0.017 -0.066 0.011 0.011 0.095 -0.015 -0.027 PACF -0.028 -0.085 -0.061 -0.028 -0.078 -0.002 -0.005 0.088 -0.011 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.002 -0.009 0.077 -0.021 -0.033 PACF -0.001 -0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.002 -0.009 0.077 -0.021 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.007 0.000 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.035 0.640 5.290 0.034 0.211 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.211 0.123 -0.024 0.067 -0.050 0.003 -0.013 0.074 -0.025 -0.030 PACF 0.211 0.082 -0.069 0.079 -0.072 0.011 0.005 0.066 -0.046 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.094 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.068 0.211 0.086 -0.078 0.093 -0.072 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES