RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO553N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO553N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 756 1 Pike Peaks DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 756 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3600 3920-10502 1530 1983 756 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 756021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1754 1758 / 1848 1852 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 756042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1712 1716 / 1786 1790 / 1888 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 756051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1923 1928 / 1963 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 756061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 756062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 3 GAPS / 1700 1705 / 1903 1908 / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 756071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1796 1800 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 756081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1786 1791 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 756092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1709 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 756102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1719 1723 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 756112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1888 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 756121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1758 1765 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 756122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1890 / 1920 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 756131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1780 1784 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 0.338 0.023 0.700 4.009 0.056 0.381 2 756012 1563 1983 421 0.354 0.034 1.832 10.173 0.052 0.693 3 756021 1677 1983 307 0.289 0.018 0.612 3.742 0.047 0.512 4 756022 1668 1983 316 0.302 0.022 0.916 4.696 0.049 0.528 5 756031 1771 1983 213 0.264 0.019 -0.064 3.045 0.058 0.481 6 756032 1795 1983 189 0.267 0.023 0.406 2.781 0.056 0.640 7 756041 1530 1983 454 0.300 0.022 0.458 2.915 0.050 0.599 8 756042 1576 1983 408 0.291 0.025 0.817 4.751 0.052 0.671 9 756051 1793 1983 191 0.307 0.021 0.573 4.502 0.042 0.629 10 756052 1789 1983 195 0.309 0.020 2.860 24.325 0.041 0.461 11 756061 1708 1983 276 0.302 0.024 1.672 12.105 0.052 0.542 12 756062 1666 1983 318 0.319 0.034 1.377 6.350 0.056 0.726 13 756071 1674 1983 310 0.299 0.027 0.675 3.258 0.063 0.558 14 756072 1652 1983 332 0.311 0.026 1.316 6.814 0.058 0.504 15 756081 1729 1983 255 0.293 0.020 0.483 4.289 0.048 0.503 16 756082 1646 1983 338 0.323 0.039 1.657 7.884 0.060 0.691 17 756091 1655 1983 329 0.324 0.028 1.525 7.117 0.053 0.618 18 756092 1660 1983 324 0.288 0.022 0.645 4.572 0.057 0.481 19 756101 1781 1983 203 0.325 0.024 0.921 5.438 0.055 0.516 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 0.300 0.022 0.910 7.073 0.057 0.372 21 756111 1748 1983 236 0.309 0.019 0.095 3.006 0.045 0.573 22 756112 1755 1983 229 0.322 0.023 0.062 2.778 0.041 0.717 23 756121 1724 1983 260 0.290 0.021 0.270 3.314 0.047 0.632 24 756122 1734 1983 250 0.286 0.022 0.898 3.997 0.052 0.637 25 756131 1644 1983 340 0.351 0.021 0.231 3.337 0.048 0.494 26 756132 1652 1983 332 0.327 0.021 -0.118 3.499 0.049 0.502 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 294 0.307 0.024 0.836 5.760 0.052 0.564 STANDARD DEVIATION 76 0.022 0.005 0.684 4.453 0.006 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 301 0.304 0.022 0.687 4.396 0.052 0.550 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.031 0.003 0.910 3.500 0.008 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 180 0.264 0.018 -0.118 2.778 0.041 0.372 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 0.291 0.021 0.406 3.314 0.048 0.502 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 0.323 0.025 1.316 6.814 0.056 0.637 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.354 0.039 2.860 24.325 0.063 0.726 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.209 0.175 0.010 -0.301 3.103 -0.349 0.687 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.349 SERIES 756022 AND 756082 316 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.687 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.082 0.343 0.321 0.378 0.233 0.232 0.295 0.393 0.285 0.319 SDEV 0.039 0.242 0.281 0.199 0.206 0.241 0.194 0.151 0.223 0.169 SERR 0.022 0.099 0.115 0.081 0.031 0.025 0.018 0.012 0.015 0.010 EPS 0.254 0.676 0.727 0.860 0.808 0.828 0.887 0.932 0.905 0.924 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.337 0.300 0.254 0.278 0.238 SDEV 0.184 0.202 0.204 0.199 0.222 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.930 0.918 0.898 0.909 0.891 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.313 0.018 0.853 4.082 0.039 0.596 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.493 0.471 -0.114 68 386 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.21 1.00 1.02 1.23 46.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 308. 96. 189. 236. 332. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.595 0.543 0.548 0.511 0.476 0.471 0.416 0.464 0.415 0.366 PACF 0.595 0.293 0.246 0.127 0.069 0.081 -0.013 0.138 0.002 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.094 0.123 0.142 0.160 0.174 0.185 0.195 0.203 0.212 0.219 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.458 0.317 0.168 0.202 0.125 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 1 0.00865418 0.01151037 0.00000000 0.33627629 2 756012 1 0.20347652 0.09196723 0.00000000 0.34894943 3 756021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006392 0.27964002 4 756022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012164 0.28290296 5 756031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000753 0.26342013 6 756032 1 0.09325490 0.00344117 0.00000000 0.19855337 7 756041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001090 0.30283222 8 756042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005353 0.28017998 9 756051 1 0.05197346 0.02991738 0.00000000 0.29721484 10 756052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003166 0.30638489 11 756061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003711 0.29679462 12 756062 1 0.12768564 0.03338147 0.00000000 0.30708024 13 756071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006610 0.28824279 14 756072 1 0.01810902 0.01533790 0.00000000 0.30736637 15 756081 1 0.06089311 0.00114806 0.00000000 0.24064177 16 756082 1 0.10998159 0.00806027 0.00000000 0.28497440 17 756091 1 0.10149462 0.02655855 0.00000000 0.31270432 18 756092 1 0.05932185 0.00504014 0.00000000 0.25951636 19 756101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016408 0.30838707 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009702 0.31411588 21 756111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007681 0.29949945 22 756112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003308 0.31883621 23 756121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007117 0.29950979 24 756122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004670 0.29185519 25 756131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006025 0.34102547 26 756132 1 0.03776079 0.01186668 0.00000000 0.31770572 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.067 0.580 3.796 0.056 0.372 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.073 0.628 4.457 0.051 0.556 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.059 0.429 3.459 0.046 0.453 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.062 0.863 4.680 0.049 0.362 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.070 -0.073 3.031 0.057 0.478 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.069 0.420 3.057 0.055 0.458 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.072 0.461 2.915 0.049 0.595 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.081 1.172 5.944 0.052 0.644 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.054 0.244 3.953 0.041 0.440 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.064 3.150 27.008 0.041 0.454 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.077 1.868 14.159 0.052 0.545 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.071 0.276 3.499 0.056 0.461 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.089 0.717 3.767 0.062 0.532 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.082 1.220 6.522 0.058 0.484 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.066 0.816 5.496 0.048 0.468 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.080 2.455 15.848 0.060 0.338 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.057 1.024 5.943 0.053 0.189 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.062 1.119 6.899 0.057 0.177 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.068 0.723 5.108 0.055 0.423 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.067 0.888 5.651 0.057 0.287 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.059 0.243 3.176 0.045 0.535 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.071 0.048 2.747 0.040 0.710 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.070 0.426 3.071 0.046 0.600 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.075 0.923 4.191 0.052 0.613 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.058 0.162 3.399 0.048 0.452 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.059 0.139 3.920 0.049 0.386 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.069 0.805 5.988 0.051 0.462 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.009 0.737 5.316 0.006 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.069 0.672 4.072 0.052 0.460 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.012 0.747 2.544 0.008 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.054 -0.073 2.747 0.040 0.177 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.062 0.276 3.399 0.048 0.386 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.073 1.024 5.943 0.056 0.545 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.089 3.150 27.008 0.062 0.710 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 756012 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 756021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 756022 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 756031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 756032 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 756041 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 756042 -67 273 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 756051 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 756052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 756061 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 756062 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 756071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 756072 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 756081 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 756082 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 756091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 756092 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 756101 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 756111 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 756112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 756121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 756122 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 756131 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 756132 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.065 0.579 3.885 0.056 0.335 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.064 0.681 4.574 0.051 0.416 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.055 0.538 4.069 0.046 0.364 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.057 0.944 4.828 0.049 0.263 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.060 -0.071 3.121 0.057 0.313 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.068 0.361 2.975 0.055 0.432 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.061 0.278 2.968 0.050 0.443 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.073 1.255 6.504 0.052 0.570 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.047 0.563 4.587 0.041 0.274 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.060 2.557 20.799 0.041 0.397 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.066 1.436 10.987 0.052 0.396 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.067 0.183 3.517 0.056 0.411 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.083 0.806 4.530 0.062 0.458 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.079 1.290 6.859 0.058 0.437 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.060 0.942 5.951 0.048 0.362 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.073 2.639 17.468 0.060 0.222 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.054 1.236 7.201 0.053 0.093 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.061 1.151 7.287 0.057 0.164 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.062 0.868 5.900 0.055 0.293 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.067 1.009 6.403 0.057 0.272 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.055 0.176 3.018 0.045 0.465 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.055 0.335 3.396 0.041 0.518 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.054 0.512 4.153 0.047 0.336 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.064 0.664 3.547 0.052 0.471 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.056 0.153 3.490 0.048 0.421 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.056 0.192 4.351 0.049 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.062 0.818 6.014 0.051 0.363 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.008 0.663 4.300 0.006 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.061 0.673 4.552 0.052 0.380 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.011 0.816 2.987 0.008 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.047 -0.071 2.968 0.041 0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.056 0.335 3.517 0.048 0.293 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.067 1.151 6.504 0.056 0.437 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.083 2.639 20.799 0.062 0.570 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.268 0.098 0.005 0.045 3.389 -0.056 0.635 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.056 SERIES 756072 AND 756131 332 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.635 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.367 0.307 0.338 0.379 0.256 0.228 0.307 0.391 0.312 0.312 SDEV 0.325 0.255 0.264 0.194 0.185 0.192 0.145 0.146 0.185 0.170 SERR 0.188 0.104 0.108 0.079 0.028 0.020 0.013 0.011 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.687 0.639 0.742 0.861 0.827 0.826 0.892 0.931 0.915 0.922 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.353 0.309 0.266 0.299 0.245 SDEV 0.159 0.190 0.186 0.178 0.196 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.934 0.921 0.904 0.917 0.894 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.041 0.601 5.057 0.038 0.277 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.150 -0.101 127 327 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.49 1.00 1.06 1.55 7.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.277 0.150 0.130 0.148 0.056 0.075 0.041 0.096 0.022 -0.014 PACF 0.277 0.080 0.076 0.094 -0.023 0.042 -0.008 0.071 -0.032 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.094 0.101 0.103 0.104 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.099 0.241 0.059 0.055 0.097 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.194 0.087 0.008 0.075 -0.028 0.036 0.090 0.085 0.038 0.069 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.194 2 0.184 0.051 3 0.185 0.055 -0.019 4 0.187 0.051 -0.033 0.075 5 0.191 0.049 -0.030 0.085 -0.056 6 0.194 0.045 -0.028 0.083 -0.065 0.043 7 0.190 0.051 -0.036 0.086 -0.068 0.027 0.087 8 0.186 0.050 -0.033 0.082 -0.067 0.024 0.079 0.043 9 0.186 0.049 -0.033 0.083 -0.068 0.025 0.079 0.040 0.012 10 0.185 0.047 -0.037 0.082 -0.065 0.021 0.080 0.038 0.002 0.050 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2411.98 2396.48 2397.29 2399.13 2398.57 2399.13 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2400.27 2398.80 2399.98 2401.92 2402.77 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.194 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.78 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.93 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.194 0.038 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 756011 1 0.176 0.336 2 756012 1 0.218 0.417 3 756021 1 0.149 0.365 4 756022 1 0.077 0.266 5 756031 1 0.113 0.314 6 756032 1 0.213 0.441 7 756041 1 0.265 0.446 8 756042 1 0.368 0.571 9 756051 1 0.077 0.277 10 756052 1 0.159 0.398 11 756061 1 0.163 0.397 12 756062 1 0.221 0.413 13 756071 1 0.235 0.460 14 756072 1 0.220 0.439 15 756081 1 0.155 0.363 16 756082 1 0.054 0.223 17 756091 1 0.009 0.093 18 756092 1 0.044 0.164 19 756101 1 0.095 0.297 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 756102 1 0.112 0.275 21 756111 1 0.231 0.475 22 756112 1 0.316 0.533 23 756121 1 0.122 0.338 24 756122 1 0.244 0.471 25 756131 1 0.233 0.425 26 756132 1 0.118 0.317 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.169 0.366 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.086 0.110 MEDIAN 1 0.161 0.381 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.120 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.009 0.093 LOWER HINGE 1 0.112 0.297 UPPER HINGE 1 0.231 0.441 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.368 0.571 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.061 0.735 4.296 0.069 -0.089 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.058 0.824 5.687 0.066 -0.096 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.051 0.473 4.132 0.057 -0.048 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.055 0.999 5.115 0.057 -0.021 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.057 -0.144 3.194 0.069 -0.038 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.061 0.186 2.830 0.070 -0.062 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.055 0.241 3.226 0.065 -0.127 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.060 0.508 4.480 0.069 -0.142 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.045 0.881 5.772 0.047 0.008 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.055 2.868 23.868 0.051 0.015 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.060 1.442 12.152 0.064 -0.032 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.061 0.415 3.770 0.070 -0.102 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.074 0.752 5.238 0.082 -0.076 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.071 1.353 7.869 0.075 -0.082 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.056 0.947 6.888 0.060 -0.060 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.071 2.595 17.538 0.068 -0.015 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.054 1.280 7.372 0.056 -0.001 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.060 1.236 7.702 0.064 -0.022 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.059 0.775 4.909 0.065 -0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.064 1.201 8.292 0.067 -0.053 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.049 0.095 2.830 0.056 -0.043 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.047 0.036 2.818 0.054 -0.094 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.051 0.602 5.197 0.056 -0.033 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.057 0.626 3.587 0.065 -0.078 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.051 0.281 3.440 0.060 -0.111 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.053 0.253 3.944 0.060 -0.044 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.058 0.825 6.390 0.063 -0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.007 0.707 4.817 0.008 0.041 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.057 0.743 5.012 0.064 -0.051 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.008 0.921 3.784 0.012 0.067 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.045 -0.144 2.818 0.047 -0.142 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.053 0.281 3.587 0.057 -0.089 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.061 1.201 7.372 0.069 -0.022 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.074 2.868 23.868 0.082 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.311 0.083 0.005 0.502 4.105 0.102 0.641 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.102 SERIES 756011 AND 756051 191 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.641 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.483 0.456 0.437 0.426 0.306 0.263 0.342 0.394 0.334 0.349 SDEV 0.178 0.159 0.208 0.221 0.192 0.176 0.144 0.140 0.144 0.132 SERR 0.103 0.065 0.085 0.090 0.029 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.779 0.770 0.813 0.883 0.860 0.851 0.907 0.932 0.923 0.933 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.360 0.307 0.301 0.362 0.308 SDEV 0.142 0.162 0.151 0.141 0.156 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.936 0.920 0.918 0.937 0.920 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.039 0.677 4.901 0.045 -0.125 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.269 0.152 -0.110 119 335 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.57 1.00 1.08 1.65 5.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.125 0.019 0.047 0.073 -0.015 0.054 -0.017 0.087 -0.010 -0.028 PACF -0.125 0.003 0.051 0.086 0.003 0.049 -0.013 0.078 0.006 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 -0.126 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.009 0.060 0.079 0.000 0.051 0.000 0.085 -0.002 -0.029 PACF 0.000 0.009 0.060 0.079 -0.001 0.047 -0.009 0.080 -0.008 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.039 0.640 5.169 0.038 0.198 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.198 0.060 0.085 0.094 0.028 0.057 0.027 0.086 0.010 -0.025 PACF 0.198 0.021 0.072 0.066 -0.007 0.046 -0.003 0.075 -0.029 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.094 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.040 0.199 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES