RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO553X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO553X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 756 1 Pike Peaks DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 756 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3600 3920-10502 1530 1983 756 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 756061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 756062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 0.664 0.070 0.067 2.633 0.068 0.607 2 756012 1563 1983 421 0.675 0.078 -0.189 2.524 0.070 0.683 3 756021 1677 1983 307 0.651 0.055 -0.617 3.102 0.069 0.466 4 756022 1668 1983 316 0.643 0.063 -0.408 2.663 0.066 0.665 5 756031 1771 1983 213 0.594 0.065 -0.343 2.709 0.075 0.622 6 756032 1795 1983 189 0.609 0.064 -0.218 2.858 0.075 0.616 7 756041 1530 1983 454 0.568 0.071 -0.318 2.391 0.071 0.741 8 756042 1576 1983 408 0.546 0.072 -0.050 2.382 0.080 0.698 9 756051 1793 1983 191 0.703 0.067 -0.288 2.685 0.077 0.416 10 756052 1789 1983 195 0.680 0.072 -0.119 2.656 0.068 0.650 11 756061 1708 1983 276 0.704 0.058 -0.438 3.155 0.069 0.433 12 756062 1666 1983 318 0.694 0.059 -0.630 3.560 0.068 0.478 13 756071 1674 1983 310 0.658 0.059 -0.419 3.289 0.069 0.535 14 756072 1652 1983 332 0.608 0.076 0.000 2.333 0.074 0.710 15 756081 1729 1983 255 0.702 0.063 -0.931 3.962 0.067 0.563 16 756082 1646 1983 338 0.700 0.059 -0.258 2.579 0.059 0.637 17 756091 1655 1983 329 0.726 0.078 -0.192 2.505 0.064 0.716 18 756092 1660 1983 324 0.681 0.093 -0.447 2.564 0.070 0.793 19 756101 1781 1983 203 0.691 0.078 -0.651 3.197 0.066 0.746 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 0.691 0.074 -0.536 3.458 0.071 0.677 21 756111 1748 1983 236 0.689 0.068 -0.344 2.566 0.080 0.450 22 756112 1755 1983 229 0.708 0.052 -0.469 2.966 0.079 0.115 23 756121 1724 1983 260 0.684 0.067 -0.256 2.934 0.056 0.739 24 756122 1734 1983 250 0.647 0.070 -0.407 2.543 0.063 0.739 25 756131 1644 1983 340 0.673 0.048 -0.301 2.587 0.050 0.588 26 756132 1652 1983 332 0.683 0.046 -0.198 3.693 0.059 0.368 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 0.664 0.066 -0.345 2.865 0.069 0.594 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.045 0.010 0.220 0.438 0.007 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 0.681 0.067 -0.331 2.674 0.069 0.630 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.047 0.013 0.249 0.591 0.007 0.233 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.546 0.046 -0.931 2.333 0.050 0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 0.647 0.059 -0.447 2.564 0.066 0.478 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 0.694 0.072 -0.198 3.155 0.074 0.710 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.726 0.093 0.067 3.962 0.080 0.793 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.286 0.200 0.011 -0.346 3.057 -0.386 0.788 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.386 SERIES 756072 AND 756101 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.788 SERIES 756091 AND 756092 324 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.473 0.354 0.209 0.447 0.260 0.276 0.304 0.417 0.319 0.431 SDEV 0.100 0.248 0.206 0.198 0.245 0.218 0.221 0.190 0.237 0.211 SERR 0.057 0.101 0.084 0.081 0.037 0.023 0.020 0.015 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.772 0.687 0.597 0.891 0.830 0.860 0.891 0.938 0.918 0.951 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.421 0.404 0.327 0.290 0.373 SDEV 0.186 0.185 0.228 0.240 0.189 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.950 0.946 0.927 0.914 0.939 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.659 0.048 -1.066 5.277 0.053 0.564 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.315 0.168 -0.038 143 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.46 1.01 1.10 1.56 6.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 308. 96. 189. 236. 332. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.563 0.535 0.492 0.413 0.368 0.340 0.358 0.311 0.295 0.312 PACF 0.563 0.320 0.174 0.031 0.016 0.035 0.110 0.013 0.010 0.066 95% C.L. 0.094 0.120 0.139 0.154 0.163 0.171 0.176 0.183 0.187 0.191 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.409 0.324 0.253 0.180 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 1 0.10921649 0.02197664 0.00000000 0.65282935 2 756012 1 0.17140213 0.00578424 0.00000000 0.61105543 3 756021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027144 0.69245261 4 756022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021248 0.67621034 5 756031 1 0.15748173 0.01017410 0.00000000 0.52959788 6 756032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051757 0.65805811 7 756041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018879 0.61107683 8 756042 1 0.08112843 0.01385353 0.00000000 0.53160572 9 756051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009996 0.69317883 10 756052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005914 0.68615437 11 756061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003156 0.70751840 12 756062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025947 0.73465955 13 756071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018437 0.68696022 14 756072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020571 0.57409203 15 756081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051387 0.76789349 16 756082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019349 0.66723281 17 756091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044294 0.79892153 18 756092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066313 0.78890055 19 756101 1 0.39543468 0.00297569 0.00000000 0.39493310 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 1 0.23949596 0.00438319 0.00000000 0.55381238 21 756111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011806 0.67524666 22 756112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003762 0.70366466 23 756121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016962 0.66163319 24 756122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014038 0.62914217 25 756131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014753 0.64769965 26 756132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006794 0.67203182 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.100 0.150 2.902 0.068 0.560 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.097 -0.248 3.055 0.070 0.557 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.076 -0.562 3.674 0.068 0.353 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.094 -0.398 2.561 0.066 0.623 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.089 -0.358 3.112 0.074 0.422 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.094 -0.139 3.290 0.075 0.505 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.119 -0.120 2.587 0.071 0.708 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.128 0.119 2.711 0.079 0.679 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.095 -0.315 2.624 0.077 0.412 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.105 -0.087 2.684 0.068 0.645 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.083 -0.422 3.091 0.069 0.473 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.080 -0.493 3.329 0.068 0.434 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.086 -0.403 3.144 0.069 0.485 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.121 -0.048 2.333 0.073 0.688 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.073 -0.632 3.673 0.066 0.348 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.080 -0.173 2.770 0.059 0.600 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.091 -0.304 2.743 0.064 0.601 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.104 -0.198 2.973 0.070 0.644 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.088 -0.121 4.233 0.066 0.573 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.084 -0.687 4.044 0.071 0.458 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.099 -0.246 2.439 0.080 0.447 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.074 -0.478 2.939 0.079 0.113 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.095 -0.341 3.202 0.056 0.724 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.107 -0.341 2.619 0.063 0.736 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.068 -0.111 2.532 0.050 0.555 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.067 -0.323 3.747 0.058 0.354 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.092 -0.280 3.039 0.068 0.527 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.016 0.207 0.500 0.007 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.092 -0.310 2.956 0.068 0.556 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.020 0.282 0.666 0.007 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.067 -0.687 2.333 0.050 0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.080 -0.403 2.624 0.066 0.434 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.100 -0.121 3.290 0.073 0.644 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.128 0.150 4.233 0.080 0.736 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 756012 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 756021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 756022 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 756031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 756032 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 756041 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 756042 -67 273 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 756051 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 756052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 756061 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 756062 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 756071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 756072 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 756081 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 756082 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 756091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 756092 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 756101 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 756111 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 756112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 756121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 756122 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 756131 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 756132 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.094 0.153 2.876 0.068 0.512 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.096 -0.238 3.002 0.070 0.540 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.074 -0.660 3.791 0.068 0.323 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.078 -0.279 3.242 0.066 0.451 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.086 -0.156 3.240 0.074 0.372 6 756032 1795 1983 189 0.999 0.081 -0.223 3.933 0.075 0.339 7 756041 1530 1983 454 0.999 0.109 0.028 2.793 0.071 0.648 8 756042 1576 1983 408 0.999 0.110 -0.159 2.629 0.079 0.581 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.087 -0.311 2.577 0.077 0.292 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.100 -0.093 2.877 0.068 0.604 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.077 -0.361 3.490 0.069 0.375 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.077 -0.495 3.169 0.068 0.388 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.075 -0.249 3.444 0.069 0.325 14 756072 1652 1983 332 0.999 0.103 -0.230 2.622 0.073 0.570 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.072 -0.533 3.609 0.066 0.319 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.069 -0.159 2.983 0.059 0.466 17 756091 1655 1983 329 0.999 0.081 -0.383 2.931 0.064 0.497 18 756092 1660 1983 324 0.999 0.094 -0.257 3.384 0.070 0.568 19 756101 1781 1983 203 0.999 0.078 -0.322 3.869 0.066 0.455 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.079 -0.588 3.981 0.071 0.384 21 756111 1748 1983 236 0.999 0.087 -0.232 2.705 0.080 0.286 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.072 -0.488 2.843 0.079 0.076 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.069 -0.471 3.668 0.056 0.478 24 756122 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.093 -0.547 2.889 0.063 0.650 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.065 -0.060 2.592 0.050 0.503 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.063 -0.377 4.299 0.058 0.259 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.083 -0.296 3.209 0.068 0.433 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.013 0.194 0.496 0.007 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.080 -0.268 3.086 0.069 0.453 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.020 0.312 0.767 0.007 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.999 0.063 -0.660 2.577 0.050 0.076 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 0.999 0.074 -0.471 2.843 0.066 0.325 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.094 -0.159 3.609 0.073 0.540 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.110 0.153 4.299 0.080 0.650 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.347 0.116 0.006 -0.134 3.558 -0.084 0.688 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.084 SERIES 756031 AND 756041 213 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.688 SERIES 756111 AND 756112 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.419 0.354 0.253 0.440 0.267 0.282 0.322 0.441 0.331 0.417 SDEV 0.140 0.246 0.196 0.187 0.227 0.213 0.197 0.174 0.217 0.204 SERR 0.081 0.101 0.080 0.077 0.034 0.022 0.018 0.013 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.731 0.686 0.656 0.888 0.835 0.863 0.899 0.943 0.922 0.949 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.450 0.422 0.359 0.320 0.373 SDEV 0.178 0.167 0.196 0.221 0.185 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.955 0.950 0.936 0.924 0.939 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.056 -0.665 3.474 0.055 0.220 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.051 -0.023 0.084 136 318 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.44 1.00 1.05 1.48 5.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.220 0.194 0.182 0.068 0.029 0.021 0.083 0.029 -0.021 0.039 PACF 0.220 0.153 0.121 -0.016 -0.029 -0.009 0.083 0.003 -0.054 0.026 95% C.L. 0.094 0.098 0.102 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.086 0.168 0.132 0.121 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 0.232 0.222 0.126 0.094 0.003 0.071 0.047 -0.003 0.056 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.219 2 0.177 0.194 3 0.147 0.167 0.151 4 0.144 0.163 0.148 0.024 5 0.144 0.163 0.148 0.024 0.000 6 0.144 0.165 0.160 0.036 0.011 -0.078 7 0.147 0.164 0.158 0.029 0.004 -0.085 0.046 8 0.146 0.167 0.158 0.028 -0.001 -0.090 0.042 0.030 9 0.147 0.168 0.156 0.028 0.000 -0.086 0.046 0.033 -0.023 10 0.148 0.167 0.154 0.032 0.000 -0.087 0.040 0.026 -0.029 0.040 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2786.74 2766.42 2751.04 2742.51 2744.25 2746.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2745.48 2746.50 2748.10 2749.85 2751.11 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.147 0.167 0.151 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.47 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.70 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.147 0.189 0.204 0.084 0.075 0.056 0.033 0.026 0.018 0.0120 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 756011 3 0.317 0.375 0.168 0.126 2 756012 3 0.373 0.334 0.241 0.152 3 756021 3 0.171 0.215 0.179 0.166 4 756022 3 0.243 0.351 0.175 0.070 5 756031 3 0.195 0.265 0.216 0.079 6 756032 3 0.216 0.207 0.230 0.164 7 756041 3 0.448 0.528 0.095 0.116 8 756042 3 0.375 0.463 0.116 0.119 9 756051 3 0.162 0.199 0.154 0.186 10 756052 3 0.402 0.509 0.114 0.081 11 756061 3 0.208 0.271 0.250 0.039 12 756062 3 0.215 0.276 0.204 0.096 13 756071 3 0.148 0.251 0.164 0.088 14 756072 3 0.365 0.426 0.180 0.090 15 756081 3 0.139 0.246 0.178 0.060 16 756082 3 0.270 0.345 0.160 0.125 17 756091 3 0.296 0.368 0.148 0.143 18 756092 3 0.426 0.304 0.283 0.184 19 756101 3 0.244 0.353 0.161 0.085 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 756102 3 0.208 0.267 0.222 0.090 21 756111 3 0.181 0.195 0.168 0.161 22 756112 3 0.014 0.069 0.038 0.072 23 756121 3 0.293 0.342 0.181 0.123 24 756122 3 0.489 0.417 0.221 0.152 25 756131 3 0.322 0.333 0.202 0.155 26 756132 3 0.137 0.176 0.251 0.063 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.264 0.311 0.181 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.107 0.053 0.042 MEDIAN 3 0.243 0.319 0.179 0.118 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.184 0.122 0.061 0.072 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.014 0.069 0.038 0.039 LOWER HINGE 3 0.181 0.246 0.160 0.081 UPPER HINGE 3 0.365 0.368 0.221 0.152 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.489 0.528 0.283 0.186 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.078 -0.056 4.260 0.083 -0.012 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.076 -0.406 3.699 0.082 -0.011 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.068 -0.631 3.772 0.076 0.000 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.068 -0.338 3.217 0.078 0.008 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.077 -0.024 3.242 0.084 -0.005 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.072 -0.022 3.345 0.081 0.019 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.081 0.131 3.235 0.088 -0.009 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.087 -0.101 2.951 0.096 -0.008 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.080 -0.438 3.407 0.086 -0.020 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.077 -0.361 4.101 0.085 0.010 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.068 -0.622 4.430 0.078 0.004 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.069 -0.484 3.152 0.078 -0.010 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.070 -0.029 3.289 0.077 0.006 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.082 -0.027 3.650 0.090 -0.005 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.067 -0.276 2.825 0.075 0.000 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.059 -0.173 2.840 0.069 -0.012 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.068 -0.152 3.150 0.075 0.003 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.071 -0.347 3.535 0.080 0.000 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.067 -0.396 3.353 0.077 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.070 -0.372 3.208 0.080 0.005 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.080 -0.266 2.971 0.090 -0.034 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.072 -0.516 2.859 0.082 -0.003 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.058 -0.158 3.046 0.065 0.016 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.066 -0.347 3.064 0.075 0.010 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.053 -0.187 3.078 0.059 0.001 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.058 -0.229 4.144 0.064 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.071 -0.263 3.378 0.079 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.008 0.197 0.450 0.008 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.070 -0.271 3.239 0.079 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.010 0.294 0.585 0.009 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.053 -0.631 2.825 0.059 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.067 -0.396 3.064 0.075 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.077 -0.101 3.650 0.084 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.087 0.131 4.430 0.096 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.448 0.081 0.004 -0.159 4.057 0.158 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.158 SERIES 756031 AND 756101 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 756111 AND 756112 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.671 0.588 0.428 0.523 0.392 0.371 0.453 0.536 0.438 0.493 SDEV 0.085 0.100 0.165 0.094 0.175 0.184 0.127 0.114 0.142 0.152 SERR 0.049 0.041 0.067 0.039 0.026 0.019 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.885 0.851 0.808 0.917 0.899 0.904 0.939 0.961 0.949 0.962 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.489 0.498 0.497 0.442 0.448 SDEV 0.152 0.127 0.120 0.130 0.128 SERR 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.961 0.963 0.963 0.954 0.955 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.053 -0.587 3.950 0.063 -0.152 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.088 -0.032 0.079 112 342 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.26 1.00 1.06 1.32 6.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.151 -0.048 -0.023 -0.053 -0.048 -0.038 0.072 0.012 -0.059 0.057 PACF -0.151 -0.073 -0.043 -0.069 -0.074 -0.070 0.042 0.016 -0.061 0.035 95% C.L. 0.094 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.030 -0.163 -0.073 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.008 -0.019 -0.081 -0.065 -0.043 0.062 0.014 -0.048 0.050 PACF -0.003 -0.008 -0.019 -0.081 -0.066 -0.047 0.057 0.006 -0.060 0.041 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.007 -0.004 -0.009 -0.019 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.999 0.054 -0.694 3.647 0.054 0.174 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.174 0.180 0.161 -0.002 -0.002 -0.015 0.053 0.013 -0.041 0.040 PACF 0.174 0.155 0.113 -0.072 -0.037 -0.017 0.081 0.008 -0.065 0.032 95% C.L. 0.094 0.097 0.100 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.073 0.138 0.149 0.123 -0.074 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES