RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR003E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR003E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 633 1 Troodos (feucht) WIDTH_EARLY PINI - 633 2 Cyprus Austrian pine, black pine 1900 3456-3252 1608 1981 - 633 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 633051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 633071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 633092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 633011 1797 1981 185 0.664 0.219 0.962 4.341 0.236 0.613 2 633012 1767 1981 215 1.011 0.686 1.856 5.990 0.171 0.923 3 633021 1800 1981 182 1.021 0.462 2.258 9.040 0.163 0.836 4 633022 1843 1981 139 1.177 0.467 0.732 3.644 0.184 0.813 5 633031 1763 1981 219 1.104 0.674 1.256 3.987 0.195 0.929 6 633032 1779 1981 203 1.096 0.603 0.486 2.284 0.189 0.924 7 633042 1754 1981 228 0.838 0.676 1.112 3.520 0.264 0.931 8 633051 1787 1981 195 0.811 0.512 1.255 4.441 0.243 0.868 9 633052 1828 1981 154 0.611 0.278 0.613 3.401 0.248 0.779 10 633061 1817 1981 165 0.924 0.501 0.831 3.185 0.254 0.799 11 633062 1819 1981 163 0.817 0.401 1.060 4.425 0.229 0.767 12 633071 1805 1981 177 0.756 0.697 2.369 8.450 0.288 0.857 13 633072 1807 1981 175 0.788 0.680 2.124 6.910 0.278 0.831 14 633081 1807 1980 174 0.806 0.337 0.385 2.610 0.209 0.861 15 633082 1764 1981 218 0.588 0.209 0.482 3.156 0.221 0.736 16 633091 1630 1981 352 0.561 0.368 1.058 3.473 0.210 0.898 17 633092 1608 1981 374 0.523 0.495 1.775 5.905 0.224 0.920 18 633101 1705 1981 277 0.790 0.471 0.645 2.615 0.199 0.885 19 633102 1707 1981 275 0.840 0.410 0.674 2.442 0.220 0.832 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 633111 1800 1981 182 0.514 0.267 0.555 2.688 0.246 0.803 21 633112 1808 1981 174 0.571 0.292 0.393 2.514 0.258 0.805 22 633121 1796 1981 186 0.705 0.410 1.010 3.650 0.276 0.850 23 633122 1794 1981 188 0.725 0.333 1.278 5.817 0.261 0.744 24 633130 1850 1981 132 0.778 0.271 1.030 5.987 0.270 0.528 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1608 TO 1981 374 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 205 0.792 0.447 1.092 4.353 0.231 0.822 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.188 0.158 0.591 1.884 0.035 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.789 0.436 1.020 3.647 0.232 0.834 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 44 0.244 0.245 0.637 2.940 0.055 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 132 0.514 0.209 0.385 2.284 0.163 0.528 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.638 0.312 0.629 2.922 0.204 0.789 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 218 0.882 0.558 1.267 5.861 0.259 0.891 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 1.177 0.697 2.369 9.040 0.288 0.931 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.528 0.229 0.014 -0.892 3.121 -0.255 0.915 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.255 SERIES 633042 AND 633130 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.915 SERIES 633091 AND 633092 352 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 10. 36. 171. 231. 276. RBAR 0.787 0.516 0.664 0.040 0.096 0.269 0.386 0.478 0.257 0.233 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.326 0.305 0.214 0.208 0.270 0.275 0.266 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.133 0.125 0.068 0.035 0.021 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.881 0.697 0.862 0.145 0.389 0.792 0.913 0.952 0.891 0.880 NSS 2.0 2.2 3.2 4.1 6.0 10.3 16.8 21.9 23.5 24.0 YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. RBAR 0.421 0.488 SDEV 0.225 0.284 SERR 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.946 0.958 NSS 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1981 374 0.939 0.395 0.858 4.265 0.132 0.883 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.294 0.195 0.174 62 312 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.53 1.00 1.06 1.59 3.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 186. 44. 132. 174. 218. 374. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.881 0.819 0.788 0.770 0.737 0.693 0.694 0.689 0.685 0.660 PACF 0.881 0.193 0.168 0.128 0.006 -0.048 0.165 0.059 0.080 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.103 0.165 0.204 0.234 0.260 0.281 0.299 0.316 0.332 0.346 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.846 0.601 0.057 0.145 0.151 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 633011 1 0.37961820 0.02627365 0.00000000 0.58773685 2 633012 1 2.89870572 0.03581007 0.00000000 0.64095098 3 633021 1 2.35390425 0.07350963 0.00000000 0.85115862 4 633022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00941400 1.83552706 5 633031 1 2.15636349 0.01559225 0.00000000 0.49763003 6 633032 1 2.13361263 0.00917092 0.00000000 0.13241103 7 633042 1 2.49515510 0.01344121 0.00000000 0.06665742 8 633051 1 1.66449559 0.02038666 0.00000000 0.40330973 9 633052 1 0.67084062 0.01477199 0.00000000 0.34881830 10 633061 1 1.65589070 0.01346593 0.00000000 0.26365995 11 633062 1 1.49457645 0.07963017 0.00000000 0.70686299 12 633071 1 3.06562304 0.04980668 0.00000000 0.41859704 13 633072 1 2.76474166 0.04581494 0.00000000 0.45066673 14 633081 1 0.70547974 0.01588870 0.00000000 0.56844658 15 633082 1 0.23559834 0.03718263 0.00000000 0.55946344 16 633091 1 1.32559621 0.00795094 0.00000000 0.11756367 17 633092 1 1.88006496 0.01223289 0.00000000 0.11841550 18 633101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00515852 1.50692594 19 633102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00396218 1.38714397 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 633111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00372069 0.85423410 21 633112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00420148 0.93837619 22 633121 1 1.35937202 0.02627631 0.00000000 0.43220338 23 633122 1 0.90186006 0.02280928 0.00000000 0.51988471 24 633130 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093359 0.71602243 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 633011 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.288 0.386 3.226 0.235 0.512 2 633012 1767 1981 215 1.002 0.324 0.378 2.833 0.170 0.789 3 633021 1800 1981 182 1.000 0.236 -0.053 2.969 0.161 0.628 4 633022 1843 1981 139 1.001 0.221 0.451 3.660 0.182 0.409 5 633031 1763 1981 219 1.005 0.340 0.040 2.489 0.195 0.733 6 633032 1779 1981 203 0.995 0.348 0.421 2.836 0.188 0.811 7 633042 1754 1981 228 1.006 0.365 0.373 4.269 0.262 0.666 8 633051 1787 1981 195 1.000 0.369 0.130 3.331 0.241 0.684 9 633052 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.363 0.105 3.114 0.246 0.660 10 633061 1817 1981 165 0.999 0.340 0.360 3.541 0.252 0.595 11 633062 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.390 0.158 2.300 0.228 0.735 12 633071 1805 1981 177 1.000 0.402 0.388 3.302 0.286 0.619 13 633072 1807 1981 175 1.002 0.385 0.165 3.134 0.276 0.615 14 633081 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.368 0.530 3.734 0.208 0.795 15 633082 1764 1981 218 1.000 0.349 0.568 3.458 0.220 0.726 16 633091 1630 1981 352 1.003 0.286 0.294 3.451 0.209 0.584 17 633092 1608 1981 374 0.995 0.276 0.263 3.757 0.223 0.506 18 633101 1705 1981 277 1.107 0.592 2.951 13.499 0.199 0.822 19 633102 1707 1981 275 1.013 0.310 0.236 3.147 0.219 0.599 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 633111 1800 1981 182 1.004 0.373 0.700 3.835 0.244 0.634 21 633112 1808 1981 174 1.005 0.394 0.651 3.405 0.257 0.626 22 633121 1796 1981 186 1.001 0.386 0.354 4.079 0.274 0.645 23 633122 1794 1981 188 1.000 0.339 0.509 3.165 0.259 0.586 24 633130 1850 1981 132 1.000 0.344 0.920 5.301 0.268 0.523 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.006 0.350 0.470 3.826 0.229 0.646 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.022 0.071 0.573 2.148 0.035 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.349 0.375 3.368 0.231 0.631 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 44 0.003 0.062 0.319 0.621 0.055 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 132 0.995 0.221 -0.053 2.300 0.161 0.409 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.317 0.201 3.124 0.203 0.590 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 218 1.003 0.379 0.519 3.745 0.258 0.729 MAXIMUM VALUE 374 1.107 0.592 2.951 13.499 0.286 0.822 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 633011 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 633012 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 633021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 633022 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 633031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 633032 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 633042 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 633051 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 633052 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 633061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 633062 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 633071 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 633072 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 633081 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 633082 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 633091 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 633092 -67 250 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 633101 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 633102 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 633111 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 633112 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 633121 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 633122 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 633130 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 633011 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.287 0.364 3.186 0.235 0.508 2 633012 1767 1981 215 0.993 0.260 -0.091 2.577 0.170 0.683 3 633021 1800 1981 182 0.999 0.187 -0.187 2.984 0.160 0.409 4 633022 1843 1981 139 0.999 0.215 0.462 3.797 0.182 0.383 5 633031 1763 1981 219 0.988 0.287 -0.111 2.564 0.194 0.643 6 633032 1779 1981 203 0.991 0.288 -0.077 2.583 0.188 0.710 7 633042 1754 1981 228 0.997 0.345 0.100 3.970 0.262 0.638 8 633051 1787 1981 195 0.996 0.353 0.061 3.342 0.241 0.655 9 633052 1828 1981 154 0.990 0.327 -0.084 3.069 0.246 0.605 10 633061 1817 1981 165 0.995 0.320 0.280 3.313 0.252 0.538 11 633062 1819 1981 163 0.990 0.320 0.278 3.037 0.228 0.599 12 633071 1805 1981 177 0.994 0.349 0.031 2.815 0.285 0.494 13 633072 1807 1981 175 0.995 0.354 0.265 4.241 0.276 0.524 14 633081 1807 1980 174 0.993 0.336 0.264 3.384 0.208 0.759 15 633082 1764 1981 218 0.994 0.324 0.390 3.332 0.220 0.684 16 633091 1630 1981 352 0.998 0.273 0.225 3.509 0.209 0.550 17 633092 1608 1981 374 0.999 0.272 0.272 3.578 0.223 0.481 18 633101 1705 1981 277 0.989 0.254 0.402 3.000 0.199 0.491 19 633102 1707 1981 275 0.995 0.273 0.157 2.961 0.219 0.499 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 633111 1800 1981 182 0.988 0.320 0.474 3.172 0.244 0.546 21 633112 1808 1981 174 0.988 0.338 0.348 2.953 0.257 0.551 22 633121 1796 1981 186 0.995 0.367 0.135 3.504 0.274 0.616 23 633122 1794 1981 188 0.997 0.316 0.313 2.883 0.259 0.525 24 633130 1850 1981 132 0.996 0.326 0.964 5.234 0.268 0.463 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 0.994 0.304 0.218 3.291 0.229 0.565 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.004 0.045 0.250 0.592 0.035 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.995 0.320 0.265 3.179 0.231 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 44 0.006 0.064 0.310 0.550 0.054 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 132 0.988 0.187 -0.187 2.564 0.160 0.383 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.991 0.273 0.046 2.957 0.203 0.496 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 218 0.997 0.337 0.356 3.507 0.258 0.641 MAXIMUM VALUE 374 1.000 0.367 0.964 5.234 0.285 0.759 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.337 0.166 0.010 -0.205 2.874 -0.189 0.744 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.189 SERIES 633042 AND 633130 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.744 SERIES 633071 AND 633072 175 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 10. 36. 171. 231. 276. RBAR 0.638 0.643 0.294 0.036 -0.006 0.081 -0.007 0.229 0.225 0.263 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.236 0.292 0.258 0.236 0.263 0.265 0.232 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.096 0.119 0.082 0.039 0.020 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.779 0.796 0.568 0.133 -0.034 0.476 -0.125 0.866 0.873 0.895 NSS 2.0 2.2 3.2 4.1 6.0 10.3 16.8 21.9 23.5 24.0 YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. RBAR 0.360 0.410 SDEV 0.224 0.255 SERR 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.931 0.943 NSS 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1981 374 0.992 0.175 0.089 4.166 0.120 0.600 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.162 0.092 0.100 62 312 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.36 1.00 1.06 1.43 3.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.599 0.432 0.343 0.234 0.099 0.005 0.018 0.002 0.041 0.017 PACF 0.599 0.114 0.072 -0.034 -0.110 -0.075 0.075 0.012 0.091 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.103 0.136 0.150 0.158 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.374 0.524 0.073 0.076 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.682 0.512 0.402 0.236 0.091 0.019 0.004 -0.010 0.025 0.045 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.682 2 0.623 0.087 3 0.619 0.059 0.044 4 0.625 0.067 0.129 -0.137 5 0.611 0.081 0.136 -0.070 -0.108 6 0.610 0.081 0.137 -0.070 -0.106 -0.003 7 0.610 0.089 0.142 -0.080 -0.112 -0.047 0.072 8 0.609 0.090 0.144 -0.078 -0.115 -0.049 0.059 0.022 9 0.607 0.086 0.148 -0.070 -0.109 -0.059 0.052 -0.022 0.072 10 0.608 0.085 0.148 -0.070 -0.110 -0.060 0.053 -0.022 0.076 -0.007 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3075.26 2842.97 2842.15 2843.42 2838.29 2835.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2837.92 2837.97 2839.79 2839.82 2841.80 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.623 0.087 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 46.95 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 188.51 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.623 0.475 0.350 0.259 0.192 0.142 0.105 0.078 0.058 0.0427 0.032 0.023 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0021 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 633011 2 0.264 0.549 -0.081 2 633012 2 0.479 0.611 0.108 3 633021 2 0.175 0.378 0.077 4 633022 2 0.162 0.399 -0.034 5 633031 2 0.445 0.544 0.161 6 633032 2 0.533 0.549 0.229 7 633042 2 0.412 0.628 0.016 8 633051 2 0.457 0.580 0.127 9 633052 2 0.383 0.533 0.120 10 633061 2 0.310 0.509 0.056 11 633062 2 0.405 0.440 0.266 12 633071 2 0.273 0.400 0.191 13 633072 2 0.275 0.507 0.031 14 633081 2 0.581 0.751 0.011 15 633082 2 0.478 0.605 0.117 16 633091 2 0.314 0.516 0.063 17 633092 2 0.259 0.417 0.135 18 633101 2 0.271 0.473 0.045 19 633102 2 0.305 0.420 0.161 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 633111 2 0.329 0.437 0.199 21 633112 2 0.326 0.462 0.165 22 633121 2 0.397 0.525 0.152 23 633122 2 0.290 0.542 -0.031 24 633130 2 0.256 0.365 0.218 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.349 0.506 0.104 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.108 0.092 0.090 MEDIAN 2 0.320 0.512 0.119 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.157 0.120 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.162 0.365 -0.081 LOWER HINGE 2 0.272 0.429 0.038 UPPER HINGE 2 0.429 0.549 0.163 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.581 0.751 0.266 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 633011 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.246 0.131 3.339 0.288 -0.002 2 633012 1767 1981 215 1.000 0.188 -0.025 2.931 0.212 -0.007 3 633021 1800 1981 182 1.000 0.170 0.097 3.547 0.189 -0.004 4 633022 1843 1981 139 1.000 0.198 0.436 3.414 0.214 0.005 5 633031 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.215 -0.036 3.173 0.242 -0.025 6 633032 1779 1981 203 1.000 0.197 -0.098 2.901 0.226 -0.002 7 633042 1754 1981 228 1.000 0.265 0.481 3.225 0.279 0.001 8 633051 1787 1981 195 1.000 0.261 0.175 3.372 0.297 -0.019 9 633052 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.258 -0.054 3.148 0.298 -0.013 10 633061 1817 1981 165 1.000 0.269 0.529 3.827 0.301 -0.009 11 633062 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.247 -0.562 4.639 0.285 0.003 12 633071 1805 1981 177 1.000 0.297 -0.141 3.877 0.334 -0.008 13 633072 1807 1981 175 1.001 0.297 0.447 5.835 0.324 0.003 14 633081 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.219 0.102 3.280 0.242 -0.002 15 633082 1764 1981 218 1.000 0.235 0.383 3.137 0.257 -0.007 16 633091 1630 1981 352 1.000 0.227 0.447 3.883 0.251 -0.007 17 633092 1608 1981 374 1.000 0.236 0.360 3.486 0.262 -0.018 18 633101 1705 1981 277 1.000 0.221 0.238 3.373 0.244 -0.006 19 633102 1707 1981 275 1.000 0.233 0.284 2.928 0.267 -0.037 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 633111 1800 1981 182 1.000 0.263 0.576 3.316 0.285 -0.013 21 633112 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.277 0.394 3.296 0.314 0.006 22 633121 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.285 0.135 4.039 0.329 0.006 23 633122 1794 1981 188 1.000 0.269 0.454 3.451 0.306 0.004 24 633130 1850 1981 132 1.000 0.281 1.008 5.444 0.306 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.000 0.244 0.240 3.619 0.273 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.000 0.035 0.315 0.738 0.040 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.247 0.261 3.373 0.282 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 44 0.000 0.050 0.411 0.653 0.060 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.170 -0.562 2.901 0.189 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.220 0.036 3.199 0.243 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 218 1.000 0.269 0.447 3.852 0.303 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 374 1.001 0.297 1.008 5.835 0.334 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.273 0.148 0.009 0.007 3.103 -0.124 0.698 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.124 SERIES 633081 AND 633102 174 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.698 SERIES 633071 AND 633072 175 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 10. 36. 171. 231. 276. RBAR 0.589 0.625 0.519 0.000 0.006 0.081 0.004 0.106 0.181 0.234 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.272 0.271 0.324 0.232 0.177 0.187 0.198 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.111 0.111 0.102 0.039 0.014 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.741 0.782 0.773 -0.002 0.033 0.477 0.059 0.721 0.839 0.880 NSS 2.0 2.2 3.2 4.1 6.0 10.3 16.8 21.9 23.5 24.0 YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. RBAR 0.336 0.344 SDEV 0.220 0.212 SERR 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.924 0.926 NSS 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1981 374 0.995 0.139 0.276 3.961 0.148 0.037 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.203 0.126 0.033 79 295 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.42 1.01 1.07 1.50 4.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.97 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.037 -0.039 0.104 0.060 -0.036 -0.118 0.000 -0.039 0.044 -0.002 PACF 0.037 -0.041 0.107 0.050 -0.032 -0.124 -0.006 -0.044 0.079 0.004 95% C.L. 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.002 0.104 0.050 -0.029 -0.116 0.007 -0.047 0.045 -0.002 PACF 0.005 -0.002 0.104 0.050 -0.029 -0.129 -0.003 -0.043 0.077 0.010 95% C.L. 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.011 0.005 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1981 374 0.995 0.197 -0.041 4.003 0.118 0.707 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.705 0.550 0.444 0.313 0.182 0.082 0.069 0.048 0.067 0.057 PACF 0.705 0.106 0.045 -0.078 -0.098 -0.056 0.097 0.024 0.080 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.103 0.146 0.167 0.179 0.185 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.188 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.507 0.632 0.106 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES