RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR004P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR004P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 623 1 Plano platres (feucht) LATEWOOD_PERCENT PINI - 623 2 Cyprus Austrian pine, black pine 1600 3454-3254 1742 1981 - 623 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 623021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 623061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 623101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 623111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 623112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1886 1886 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 623122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 3.382 0.845 0.047 3.399 0.244 0.269 2 623012 1841 1981 141 2.602 0.817 0.293 3.376 0.324 0.179 3 623021 1806 1981 176 3.432 1.153 0.581 3.607 0.246 0.607 4 623022 1790 1981 192 2.363 0.606 0.269 3.036 0.236 0.313 5 623031 1795 1981 187 2.192 0.782 0.412 3.304 0.339 0.352 6 623032 1797 1981 185 2.160 0.670 0.909 4.690 0.286 0.248 7 623051 1924 1981 58 2.934 0.489 0.661 3.429 0.173 0.156 8 623052 1929 1981 53 3.422 0.758 0.710 4.294 0.231 0.113 9 623061 1742 1981 240 3.448 1.319 1.428 8.001 0.281 0.486 10 623062 1828 1981 154 3.556 0.946 0.408 3.675 0.220 0.473 11 623071 1911 1981 71 3.275 0.815 0.072 4.998 0.239 0.151 12 623072 1913 1981 69 3.176 0.689 0.564 4.503 0.197 0.377 13 623081 1918 1981 64 3.244 0.978 2.232 12.960 0.245 0.140 14 623082 1915 1981 67 3.750 0.841 0.140 4.366 0.188 0.429 15 623091 1794 1981 188 2.668 0.698 0.387 3.127 0.250 0.303 16 623092 1790 1981 192 2.149 0.659 0.378 3.117 0.290 0.224 17 623101 1759 1981 223 2.748 0.771 0.260 3.154 0.237 0.504 18 623102 1752 1981 230 2.839 0.765 0.377 3.301 0.202 0.570 19 623111 1777 1981 205 2.307 0.806 0.664 3.431 0.294 0.450 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 2.474 1.204 3.415 19.052 0.268 0.463 21 623121 1826 1981 156 3.011 0.686 -0.131 2.827 0.196 0.449 22 623122 1826 1981 156 2.867 0.819 0.131 2.962 0.226 0.555 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1742 TO 1981 240 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 2.909 0.823 0.646 4.937 0.246 0.355 STANDARD DEVIATION 61 0.497 0.197 0.800 3.865 0.043 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 165 2.900 0.794 0.398 3.430 0.241 0.364 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.908 0.156 0.403 1.349 0.061 0.248 MINIMUM VALUE 53 2.149 0.489 -0.131 2.827 0.173 0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 2.474 0.689 0.260 3.154 0.220 0.224 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 3.382 0.845 0.664 4.503 0.281 0.473 MAXIMUM VALUE 233 3.750 1.319 3.415 19.052 0.339 0.607 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.198 0.176 0.012 -0.192 3.577 -0.375 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.375 SERIES 623021 AND 623122 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 623011 AND 623012 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 45. 55. 105. 120. 120. 210. RBAR 0.155 0.057 0.176 0.215 0.214 0.175 0.258 SDEV 0.316 0.236 0.178 0.207 0.205 0.219 0.186 SERR 0.129 0.035 0.024 0.020 0.019 0.020 0.013 EPS 0.610 0.427 0.763 0.814 0.821 0.808 0.884 NSS 8.5 12.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 19.8 21.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 2.904 0.579 1.831 9.545 0.138 0.503 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.056 0.038 0.691 61 179 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.63 1.00 1.11 1.74 5.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 166. 121. 53. 71. 192. 240. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.501 0.381 0.434 0.391 0.340 0.317 0.283 0.318 0.274 0.276 PACF 0.501 0.173 0.261 0.112 0.064 0.041 0.009 0.101 0.003 0.062 95% C.L. 0.129 0.158 0.173 0.190 0.203 0.212 0.220 0.226 0.233 0.239 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.378 0.311 0.083 0.229 0.144 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 623011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00651343 3.81209993 2 623012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00214230 2.44966960 3 623021 1 1.93197310 0.01098146 0.00000000 2.57745695 4 623022 1 0.80301780 0.04386021 0.00000000 2.26939774 5 623031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00448146 2.61339664 6 623032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050292 2.20725799 7 623051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00394476 2.81776762 8 623052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02022416 2.87583447 9 623061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00777861 4.40491295 10 623062 1 2.38348913 0.03274982 0.00000000 3.09461379 11 623071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00357445 3.40332794 12 623072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00677201 2.93921137 13 623081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01248672 3.64956856 14 623082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00724559 3.99620080 15 623091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00367190 3.01545167 16 623092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00249929 2.39055634 17 623101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589450 3.40048838 18 623102 1 2.19707036 0.00504254 0.00000000 1.54152751 19 623111 1 1.70224094 0.01293616 0.00000000 1.71202946 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 623112 1 2.19914055 0.01422095 0.00000000 1.80436552 21 623121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00606742 2.53473282 22 623122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00863930 2.17658710 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.240 0.003 3.387 0.242 0.215 2 623012 1841 1981 141 1.000 0.310 0.238 3.354 0.322 0.154 3 623021 1806 1981 176 1.000 0.315 0.688 3.571 0.243 0.521 4 623022 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.250 0.396 3.435 0.235 0.242 5 623031 1795 1981 187 0.999 0.343 0.478 3.367 0.337 0.305 6 623032 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.310 0.908 4.691 0.284 0.246 7 623051 1924 1981 58 1.000 0.166 0.775 4.069 0.170 0.139 8 623052 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.203 0.929 4.355 0.226 -0.062 9 623061 1742 1981 240 0.999 0.336 1.002 5.568 0.279 0.377 10 623062 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.217 0.000 3.003 0.219 0.190 11 623071 1911 1981 71 1.000 0.248 0.012 4.634 0.235 0.157 12 623072 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.208 0.211 3.937 0.194 0.334 13 623081 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.286 1.574 8.603 0.240 0.147 14 623082 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.220 -0.036 3.723 0.185 0.422 15 623091 1794 1981 188 1.000 0.254 0.541 3.669 0.249 0.235 16 623092 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.296 0.307 3.206 0.289 0.193 17 623101 1759 1981 223 0.999 0.248 0.343 2.963 0.235 0.324 18 623102 1752 1981 230 1.000 0.231 0.573 4.288 0.201 0.382 19 623111 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.304 1.001 6.486 0.291 0.224 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 1.000 0.379 2.467 13.461 0.266 0.403 21 623121 1826 1981 156 0.999 0.213 0.203 3.570 0.194 0.349 22 623122 1826 1981 156 0.998 0.255 0.392 2.956 0.222 0.401 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 1.000 0.265 0.591 4.559 0.244 0.268 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.054 0.584 2.385 0.043 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.252 0.437 3.696 0.238 0.244 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.090 0.697 1.267 0.060 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.998 0.166 -0.036 2.956 0.170 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.220 0.211 3.367 0.219 0.190 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.310 0.908 4.634 0.279 0.377 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.379 2.467 13.461 0.337 0.521 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 623011 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 623012 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 623021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 623022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 623031 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 623032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 623051 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 623052 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 623061 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 623062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 623071 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 623072 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 623081 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 623082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 623091 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 623092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 623101 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 623102 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 623111 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 623112 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 623121 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 623122 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 0.998 0.228 0.270 3.636 0.242 0.089 2 623012 1841 1981 141 0.996 0.293 0.231 3.380 0.322 0.049 3 623021 1806 1981 176 0.994 0.269 0.543 3.601 0.242 0.347 4 623022 1790 1981 192 0.998 0.238 0.366 3.397 0.235 0.161 5 623031 1795 1981 187 0.998 0.314 0.401 3.327 0.337 0.177 6 623032 1797 1981 185 0.999 0.304 1.105 5.440 0.284 0.199 7 623051 1924 1981 58 1.000 0.157 0.515 3.814 0.170 0.048 8 623052 1929 1981 53 0.999 0.190 0.932 3.925 0.225 -0.184 9 623061 1742 1981 240 0.999 0.325 1.021 6.086 0.279 0.333 10 623062 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.214 -0.001 3.034 0.219 0.167 11 623071 1911 1981 71 0.999 0.243 0.217 4.543 0.234 0.100 12 623072 1913 1981 69 0.999 0.204 0.181 4.036 0.193 0.310 13 623081 1918 1981 64 0.998 0.275 1.794 8.955 0.238 0.101 14 623082 1915 1981 67 0.998 0.198 0.313 5.122 0.183 0.276 15 623091 1794 1981 188 0.999 0.250 0.609 3.848 0.249 0.214 16 623092 1790 1981 192 0.999 0.287 0.387 3.136 0.288 0.105 17 623101 1759 1981 223 0.999 0.238 0.649 3.499 0.235 0.222 18 623102 1752 1981 230 0.998 0.220 0.840 4.992 0.201 0.306 19 623111 1777 1981 205 0.999 0.302 1.083 7.268 0.291 0.212 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 0.998 0.360 2.452 13.190 0.266 0.335 21 623121 1826 1981 156 0.999 0.189 0.580 4.879 0.194 0.113 22 623122 1826 1981 156 0.998 0.230 0.560 3.969 0.222 0.251 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 0.998 0.251 0.684 4.867 0.243 0.179 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.001 0.052 0.565 2.354 0.044 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 166 0.999 0.240 0.552 3.947 0.237 0.188 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.001 0.079 0.619 1.623 0.060 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.994 0.157 -0.001 3.034 0.170 -0.184 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 0.998 0.214 0.313 3.499 0.219 0.101 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 0.999 0.293 0.932 5.122 0.279 0.276 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.360 2.452 13.190 0.337 0.347 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.226 0.141 0.009 0.387 3.366 -0.113 0.759 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.113 SERIES 623021 AND 623052 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.759 SERIES 623011 AND 623012 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 45. 55. 105. 120. 120. 210. RBAR 0.122 0.081 0.184 0.229 0.230 0.154 0.282 SDEV 0.303 0.202 0.172 0.149 0.200 0.221 0.174 SERR 0.124 0.030 0.023 0.015 0.018 0.020 0.012 EPS 0.542 0.524 0.773 0.826 0.835 0.783 0.896 NSS 8.5 12.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 19.8 21.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 0.989 0.142 0.696 5.661 0.144 0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.237 -0.028 61 179 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.81 1.01 1.07 1.88 29.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.084 -0.060 0.065 0.072 -0.072 -0.062 0.000 0.089 -0.027 -0.027 PACF 0.084 -0.068 0.077 0.056 -0.075 -0.046 -0.008 0.091 -0.028 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.091 -0.170 0.059 0.040 -0.097 -0.114 0.048 0.197 -0.018 -0.056 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.091 2 0.108 -0.180 3 0.125 -0.190 0.098 4 0.126 -0.192 0.099 -0.009 5 0.126 -0.184 0.084 0.001 -0.077 6 0.118 -0.184 0.092 -0.017 -0.064 -0.098 7 0.122 -0.182 0.093 -0.021 -0.057 -0.103 0.041 8 0.115 -0.164 0.103 -0.017 -0.073 -0.071 0.020 0.173 9 0.120 -0.163 0.100 -0.020 -0.073 -0.068 0.015 0.177 -0.031 10 0.120 -0.163 0.100 -0.020 -0.073 -0.068 0.015 0.177 -0.031 -0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1666.58 1666.57 1660.68 1660.38 1662.37 1662.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1662.63 1664.22 1658.90 1660.67 1662.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.125 -0.190 0.098 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.95 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.21 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.125 -0.175 0.052 0.052 -0.020 -0.007 0.008 0.000 -0.002 0.0004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 623011 3 0.032 0.111 -0.145 0.048 2 623012 3 0.024 0.057 -0.055 0.083 3 623021 3 0.138 0.310 0.056 0.091 4 623022 3 0.034 0.164 -0.025 0.080 5 623031 3 0.075 0.172 0.001 0.149 6 623032 3 0.062 0.228 -0.120 0.055 7 623051 3 0.128 0.060 -0.245 -0.012 8 623052 3 0.113 -0.187 -0.088 0.191 9 623061 3 0.185 0.257 0.074 0.223 10 623062 3 0.060 0.178 -0.041 0.111 11 623071 3 0.153 0.093 -0.037 -0.307 12 623072 3 0.211 0.333 0.040 -0.285 13 623081 3 0.113 0.101 -0.128 -0.119 14 623082 3 0.179 0.280 -0.052 -0.283 15 623091 3 0.051 0.214 0.002 0.055 16 623092 3 0.060 0.115 -0.051 0.221 17 623101 3 0.100 0.191 0.025 0.221 18 623102 3 0.108 0.268 0.100 0.048 19 623111 3 0.056 0.213 0.014 -0.046 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 623112 3 0.138 0.297 0.118 0.037 21 623121 3 0.034 0.114 -0.025 -0.079 22 623122 3 0.065 0.243 0.028 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.096 0.173 -0.025 0.022 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.055 0.115 0.086 0.157 MEDIAN 3 0.088 0.185 -0.025 0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.082 0.147 0.084 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.024 -0.187 -0.245 -0.307 LOWER HINGE 3 0.056 0.111 -0.055 -0.046 UPPER HINGE 3 0.138 0.257 0.028 0.111 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.211 0.333 0.118 0.223 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.224 0.461 3.639 0.248 -0.003 2 623012 1841 1981 141 1.000 0.292 0.254 3.225 0.331 -0.009 3 623021 1806 1981 176 1.000 0.250 0.686 3.607 0.270 0.005 4 623022 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.234 0.361 3.415 0.255 -0.003 5 623031 1795 1981 187 1.000 0.305 0.361 3.267 0.361 -0.021 6 623032 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.296 1.040 5.002 0.312 -0.003 7 623051 1924 1981 58 1.000 0.152 0.688 3.663 0.173 -0.002 8 623052 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.182 0.448 3.151 0.194 0.032 9 623061 1742 1981 240 1.000 0.295 1.119 6.619 0.309 -0.031 10 623062 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.209 0.136 2.903 0.241 -0.012 11 623071 1911 1981 71 1.000 0.228 0.305 5.621 0.237 -0.056 12 623072 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.184 -0.272 4.218 0.221 -0.033 13 623081 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.269 1.912 9.766 0.246 -0.025 14 623082 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.180 0.260 4.244 0.191 0.032 15 623091 1794 1981 188 1.000 0.244 0.664 4.098 0.274 0.004 16 623092 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.278 0.434 3.144 0.308 -0.007 17 623101 1759 1981 223 1.000 0.226 0.514 3.486 0.252 -0.002 18 623102 1752 1981 230 1.000 0.208 0.674 4.538 0.227 0.003 19 623111 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.294 0.913 6.414 0.316 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 1.000 0.334 1.864 10.087 0.314 -0.009 21 623121 1826 1981 156 1.000 0.187 0.431 4.523 0.207 -0.009 22 623122 1826 1981 156 1.000 0.223 0.478 4.188 0.247 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 1.000 0.241 0.624 4.674 0.261 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.049 0.508 1.978 0.050 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.231 0.469 4.143 0.250 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.084 0.328 1.587 0.082 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 53 1.000 0.152 -0.272 2.903 0.173 -0.056 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.208 0.361 3.415 0.227 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.292 0.688 5.002 0.309 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.334 1.912 10.087 0.361 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.242 0.132 0.009 0.438 3.586 -0.141 0.742 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.141 SERIES 623021 AND 623052 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.742 SERIES 623011 AND 623012 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 45. 55. 105. 120. 120. 210. RBAR 0.022 0.105 0.198 0.243 0.258 0.162 0.283 SDEV 0.234 0.194 0.152 0.136 0.180 0.198 0.168 SERR 0.095 0.029 0.021 0.013 0.016 0.018 0.012 EPS 0.159 0.593 0.788 0.837 0.854 0.793 0.896 NSS 8.5 12.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 19.8 21.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 0.990 0.138 0.534 5.664 0.151 -0.067 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.361 0.259 -0.060 65 175 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.62 1.00 1.06 1.68 13.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.067 -0.101 -0.010 0.037 -0.063 -0.065 -0.032 0.141 -0.022 -0.028 PACF -0.067 -0.106 -0.025 0.024 -0.063 -0.070 -0.055 0.120 -0.010 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.129 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.135 0.135 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 -0.007 0.012 -0.072 -0.056 -0.033 0.129 -0.026 -0.029 PACF 0.000 0.001 -0.007 0.012 -0.072 -0.056 -0.033 0.129 -0.025 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.132 0.133 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 0.990 0.141 0.650 5.793 0.141 0.089 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.089 -0.172 0.057 0.062 -0.082 -0.093 -0.006 0.121 -0.016 -0.027 PACF 0.089 -0.182 0.095 0.014 -0.067 -0.070 -0.021 0.112 -0.032 0.021 95% C.L. 0.129 0.130 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.138 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.052 0.126 -0.197 0.097 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES