RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR011E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR011E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 634 1 Stavros (mittel) WIDTH_EARLY PIBR - 634 2 Cyprus Calabrian pine, brutia pine, see kiefer 800 3500-3237 1902 19 634 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 634011 1912 1981 70 0.877 0.382 0.854 4.057 0.329 0.512 2 634012 1910 1981 72 0.836 0.419 1.149 4.033 0.293 0.775 3 634021 1951 1981 31 0.935 0.360 0.477 2.893 0.257 0.591 4 634022 1911 1981 71 1.306 0.489 0.831 3.190 0.221 0.743 5 634031 1912 1981 70 0.985 0.351 0.493 3.412 0.260 0.622 6 634032 1902 1981 80 0.990 0.310 0.251 3.637 0.243 0.468 7 634041 1921 1981 61 1.284 0.537 0.309 2.227 0.280 0.671 8 634042 1921 1981 61 1.005 0.450 0.770 3.513 0.269 0.817 9 634051 1911 1981 71 0.944 0.569 0.491 2.273 0.354 0.764 10 634052 1910 1981 72 0.862 0.329 0.023 2.506 0.263 0.667 11 634061 1918 1981 64 1.009 0.413 0.663 2.937 0.284 0.669 12 634062 1915 1981 67 0.955 0.552 0.850 3.312 0.298 0.858 13 634071 1921 1981 61 0.879 0.528 1.282 3.585 0.300 0.837 14 634072 1917 1981 65 0.946 0.513 0.968 3.307 0.294 0.749 15 634081 1921 1981 61 1.238 0.628 0.812 4.648 0.252 0.803 16 634082 1909 1981 73 1.061 0.458 0.290 2.843 0.259 0.770 17 634091 1939 1981 43 2.685 0.812 0.612 2.930 0.231 0.664 18 634092 1938 1981 44 2.358 0.802 1.308 4.108 0.193 0.753 19 634101 1925 1981 57 1.781 0.689 1.115 4.148 0.223 0.768 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 634102 1932 1981 50 2.016 0.743 0.520 3.173 0.245 0.644 21 634111 1920 1981 62 1.374 0.676 1.427 5.821 0.304 0.717 22 634112 1908 1981 74 1.041 0.448 0.872 4.251 0.293 0.665 23 634121 1921 1981 61 1.384 0.792 1.102 4.340 0.309 0.765 24 634122 1914 1981 68 1.803 1.037 1.558 5.859 0.266 0.783 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1902 TO 1981 80 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 63 1.273 0.554 0.793 3.625 0.271 0.712 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.502 0.185 0.398 0.942 0.037 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 64 1.025 0.520 0.821 3.462 0.267 0.746 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.434 0.267 0.617 1.194 0.047 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 31 0.836 0.310 0.023 2.227 0.193 0.468 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 61 0.945 0.416 0.492 2.934 0.249 0.664 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.379 0.682 1.109 4.128 0.296 0.773 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 2.685 1.037 1.558 5.859 0.354 0.858 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.519 0.177 0.011 -0.272 2.663 -0.089 0.888 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.089 SERIES 634072 AND 634112 65 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.888 SERIES 634101 AND 634102 50 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1902 1981 80 1.101 0.406 0.744 4.150 0.182 0.828 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.758 0.499 -0.101 38 42 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.36 1.01 1.11 1.47 4.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 64. 10. 31. 61. 71. 80. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.817 0.643 0.561 0.463 0.354 0.194 0.094 0.044 -0.024 -0.039 PACF 0.817 -0.076 0.177 -0.106 -0.038 -0.264 0.081 -0.030 -0.014 0.121 95% C.L. 0.224 0.342 0.398 0.435 0.459 0.473 0.477 0.478 0.478 0.478 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.696 0.834 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 634011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00386528 0.74021119 2 634012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00697617 0.58161974 3 634021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02816935 1.38587093 4 634022 1 1.41859138 0.10131961 0.00000000 1.11924362 5 634031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00276354 0.88660872 6 634032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097738 0.95004112 7 634041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011898 1.28040981 8 634042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01171126 0.64203274 9 634051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00837458 0.64245874 10 634052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00485819 0.68489826 11 634061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01052015 0.66684526 12 634062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01313592 0.50845319 13 634071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01117557 0.53240985 14 634072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00319624 0.84083176 15 634081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01959069 0.63072133 16 634082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00881926 0.73505706 17 634091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01974177 3.11966777 18 634092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02260747 1.84951377 19 634101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00955406 1.50345862 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 634102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011621 2.01263666 21 634111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00974088 1.06735587 22 634112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00209256 0.96261013 23 634121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00785087 1.14055741 24 634122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01382296 1.32575512 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 634011 1912 1981 70 0.999 0.429 0.925 4.505 0.324 0.484 2 634012 1910 1981 72 0.998 0.448 0.714 2.963 0.288 0.681 3 634021 1951 1981 31 1.000 0.275 0.462 3.151 0.247 0.349 4 634022 1911 1981 71 1.000 0.303 0.660 3.370 0.220 0.551 5 634031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.347 0.334 3.082 0.256 0.594 6 634032 1902 1981 80 1.000 0.313 0.280 3.708 0.240 0.465 7 634041 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.418 0.307 2.225 0.275 0.659 8 634042 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.410 0.609 3.035 0.264 0.684 9 634051 1911 1981 71 1.009 0.603 0.491 2.199 0.351 0.737 10 634052 1910 1981 72 1.001 0.378 0.247 2.878 0.260 0.618 11 634061 1918 1981 64 0.999 0.367 0.917 4.231 0.279 0.622 12 634062 1915 1981 67 1.012 0.572 1.057 3.576 0.295 0.784 13 634071 1921 1981 61 1.005 0.549 1.149 3.589 0.296 0.716 14 634072 1917 1981 65 1.001 0.546 1.062 3.636 0.290 0.723 15 634081 1921 1981 61 0.986 0.429 0.692 3.827 0.251 0.707 16 634082 1909 1981 73 0.998 0.406 0.269 2.501 0.255 0.694 17 634091 1939 1981 43 0.999 0.289 0.812 3.576 0.224 0.614 18 634092 1938 1981 44 0.998 0.313 1.518 4.424 0.187 0.688 19 634101 1925 1981 57 0.999 0.374 1.044 3.705 0.219 0.731 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 634102 1932 1981 50 1.000 0.369 0.519 3.169 0.240 0.631 21 634111 1920 1981 62 0.997 0.468 1.228 4.922 0.299 0.669 22 634112 1908 1981 74 1.000 0.429 0.922 4.432 0.289 0.653 23 634121 1921 1981 61 0.998 0.580 1.322 5.048 0.305 0.737 24 634122 1914 1981 68 0.996 0.532 1.214 4.594 0.262 0.747 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 63 1.000 0.423 0.782 3.598 0.267 0.647 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.005 0.098 0.372 0.794 0.037 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 64 1.000 0.414 0.763 3.583 0.263 0.675 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.002 0.143 0.583 1.269 0.049 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 31 0.986 0.275 0.247 2.199 0.187 0.349 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 61 0.998 0.357 0.477 3.058 0.244 0.616 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.500 1.060 4.328 0.293 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 1.012 0.603 1.518 5.048 0.351 0.784 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 634011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 634012 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 634021 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 634022 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 634031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 634032 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 634041 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 634042 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 634051 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 634052 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 634061 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 634062 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 634071 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 634072 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 634081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 634082 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 634091 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 634092 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 634101 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 634102 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 634111 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 634112 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 634121 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 634122 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 634011 1912 1981 70 0.994 0.404 0.884 4.518 0.322 0.455 2 634012 1910 1981 72 0.981 0.337 0.244 2.439 0.288 0.489 3 634021 1951 1981 31 0.992 0.221 0.674 3.476 0.241 0.105 4 634022 1911 1981 71 0.996 0.274 0.358 2.907 0.220 0.469 5 634031 1912 1981 70 0.990 0.276 0.062 2.842 0.255 0.381 6 634032 1902 1981 80 0.995 0.290 0.172 3.677 0.238 0.418 7 634041 1921 1981 61 0.992 0.335 0.513 3.908 0.275 0.372 8 634042 1921 1981 61 0.988 0.321 -0.035 3.293 0.266 0.538 9 634051 1911 1981 71 0.979 0.529 1.544 6.329 0.347 0.649 10 634052 1910 1981 72 0.997 0.359 0.161 2.632 0.259 0.585 11 634061 1918 1981 64 0.995 0.342 0.669 3.912 0.278 0.581 12 634062 1915 1981 67 0.980 0.447 0.788 3.476 0.288 0.713 13 634071 1921 1981 61 0.972 0.359 0.364 2.550 0.296 0.501 14 634072 1917 1981 65 0.966 0.316 0.421 2.812 0.287 0.279 15 634081 1921 1981 61 0.990 0.374 0.652 3.907 0.249 0.597 16 634082 1909 1981 73 0.979 0.311 0.450 3.917 0.254 0.517 17 634091 1939 1981 43 0.993 0.219 -0.012 2.779 0.224 0.340 18 634092 1938 1981 44 0.992 0.217 0.524 2.966 0.187 0.452 19 634101 1925 1981 57 0.990 0.301 0.627 3.341 0.215 0.626 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 634102 1932 1981 50 0.987 0.297 -0.007 2.930 0.239 0.504 21 634111 1920 1981 62 0.990 0.386 0.679 4.128 0.302 0.555 22 634112 1908 1981 74 0.990 0.377 0.466 3.310 0.288 0.583 23 634121 1921 1981 61 0.984 0.481 0.792 3.887 0.303 0.638 24 634122 1914 1981 68 0.986 0.419 0.627 3.696 0.262 0.666 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 63 0.987 0.341 0.484 3.485 0.266 0.501 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.008 0.079 0.354 0.823 0.037 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 64 0.990 0.336 0.489 3.408 0.264 0.511 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.010 0.088 0.464 1.033 0.049 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 31 0.966 0.217 -0.035 2.439 0.187 0.105 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 61 0.982 0.293 0.208 2.875 0.240 0.435 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 0.993 0.381 0.672 3.907 0.288 0.591 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 0.997 0.529 1.544 6.329 0.347 0.713 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.502 0.158 0.009 -0.347 2.782 0.068 0.846 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.068 SERIES 634011 AND 634091 43 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.846 SERIES 634101 AND 634102 50 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1902 1981 80 0.973 0.255 0.054 3.535 0.178 0.659 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.477 0.190 0.035 25 55 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.29 1.00 1.05 1.34 1.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.650 0.386 0.229 0.087 -0.020 -0.238 -0.357 -0.377 -0.394 -0.307 PACF 0.650 -0.064 0.006 -0.085 -0.059 -0.310 -0.096 -0.068 -0.115 0.049 95% C.L. 0.224 0.304 0.327 0.335 0.336 0.337 0.345 0.363 0.382 0.402 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.435 0.658 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.682 0.410 0.261 0.129 -0.035 -0.266 -0.400 -0.414 -0.427 -0.370 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.682 2 0.751 -0.102 3 0.756 -0.134 0.043 4 0.759 -0.145 0.104 -0.081 5 0.746 -0.129 0.081 0.038 -0.156 6 0.700 -0.117 0.105 -0.001 0.067 -0.299 7 0.664 -0.109 0.105 0.012 0.053 -0.216 -0.119 8 0.659 -0.119 0.108 0.012 0.058 -0.221 -0.091 -0.042 9 0.654 -0.130 0.081 0.019 0.059 -0.208 -0.105 0.038 -0.122 10 0.659 -0.131 0.085 0.027 0.057 -0.208 -0.108 0.043 -0.147 0.038 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 613.53 565.54 566.70 568.56 570.03 570.06 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 564.55 565.42 567.28 568.07 569.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.682 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 46.47 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 186.81 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.682 0.465 0.317 0.216 0.147 0.100 0.068 0.047 0.032 0.0217 0.015 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 634011 1 0.211 0.458 2 634012 1 0.269 0.503 3 634021 1 0.015 0.105 4 634022 1 0.226 0.474 5 634031 1 0.147 0.383 6 634032 1 0.183 0.428 7 634041 1 0.206 0.407 8 634042 1 0.326 0.552 9 634051 1 0.427 0.652 10 634052 1 0.351 0.585 11 634061 1 0.341 0.583 12 634062 1 0.513 0.714 13 634071 1 0.275 0.513 14 634072 1 0.098 0.285 15 634081 1 0.409 0.640 16 634082 1 0.270 0.518 17 634091 1 0.158 0.343 18 634092 1 0.241 0.455 19 634101 1 0.400 0.633 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 634102 1 0.294 0.512 21 634111 1 0.312 0.558 22 634112 1 0.362 0.591 23 634121 1 0.440 0.663 24 634122 1 0.451 0.671 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.289 0.509 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.140 MEDIAN 1 0.284 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.173 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.015 0.105 LOWER HINGE 1 0.208 0.442 UPPER HINGE 1 0.381 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.513 0.714 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 634011 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.359 0.924 3.905 0.367 0.016 2 634012 1910 1981 72 1.000 0.289 -0.235 2.861 0.373 -0.079 3 634021 1951 1981 31 1.000 0.220 0.687 3.373 0.253 -0.007 4 634022 1911 1981 71 1.000 0.240 0.823 3.952 0.253 0.014 5 634031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.255 0.297 3.081 0.290 0.012 6 634032 1902 1981 80 1.000 0.261 0.335 4.685 0.282 -0.002 7 634041 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.301 0.889 4.240 0.333 -0.117 8 634042 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.266 0.384 4.136 0.303 0.086 9 634051 1911 1981 71 1.000 0.401 1.202 4.787 0.405 0.036 10 634052 1910 1981 72 1.000 0.291 0.452 2.874 0.314 0.066 11 634061 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.277 0.355 3.252 0.322 0.020 12 634062 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.313 0.497 3.769 0.347 0.062 13 634071 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.306 0.375 2.910 0.348 -0.077 14 634072 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.302 0.507 3.324 0.313 -0.040 15 634081 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.279 1.210 3.895 0.289 -0.034 16 634082 1909 1981 73 1.000 0.266 0.657 4.383 0.285 -0.020 17 634091 1939 1981 43 1.000 0.205 -0.085 2.592 0.264 -0.073 18 634092 1938 1981 44 1.000 0.193 0.277 3.060 0.251 -0.097 19 634101 1925 1981 57 1.000 0.232 0.428 2.791 0.255 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 634102 1932 1981 50 1.000 0.254 0.531 3.599 0.292 -0.111 21 634111 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.320 0.557 3.563 0.346 0.011 22 634112 1908 1981 74 1.000 0.304 0.905 3.926 0.333 -0.081 23 634121 1921 1981 61 1.000 0.354 0.399 3.337 0.377 -0.048 24 634122 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.310 0.462 3.230 0.333 0.025 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 63 1.000 0.283 0.535 3.564 0.314 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.049 0.343 0.609 0.044 0.057 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 64 1.000 0.284 0.480 3.468 0.314 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.000 0.054 0.391 0.868 0.063 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 31 1.000 0.193 -0.235 2.592 0.251 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.255 0.365 3.071 0.283 -0.075 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.308 0.755 3.939 0.346 0.018 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.401 1.210 4.787 0.405 0.086 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.390 0.164 0.010 -0.797 3.702 -0.169 0.717 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 634021 AND 634081 31 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.717 SERIES 634091 AND 634092 43 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1902 1981 80 0.992 0.194 0.684 3.912 0.198 0.186 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.413 0.187 0.012 24 56 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.25 1.01 1.05 1.30 2.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.184 0.030 0.060 0.035 0.045 -0.172 -0.215 -0.152 -0.239 -0.072 PACF 0.184 -0.004 0.058 0.015 0.036 -0.197 -0.163 -0.101 -0.202 0.016 95% C.L. 0.224 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.232 0.233 0.239 0.248 0.253 0.264 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.035 0.186 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.015 0.052 0.018 0.074 -0.151 -0.168 -0.075 -0.213 -0.006 PACF -0.002 -0.015 0.052 0.018 0.076 -0.155 -0.173 -0.096 -0.222 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.226 0.231 0.237 0.238 0.247 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1902 1981 80 0.987 0.260 0.171 3.539 0.171 0.680 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.671 0.439 0.285 0.131 -0.014 -0.222 -0.345 -0.385 -0.422 -0.349 PACF 0.671 -0.022 -0.002 -0.100 -0.109 -0.269 -0.112 -0.062 -0.118 0.064 95% C.L. 0.224 0.308 0.338 0.350 0.352 0.352 0.359 0.375 0.395 0.417 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.462 0.679 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES