RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 635 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-f) WIDTH_EARLY CEBR - 635 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1370 3459-3241 1889 1981 - 635 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 635071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.943 0.565 2.110 7.855 0.304 0.670 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.065 0.417 2.499 9.399 0.234 0.627 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.799 0.274 0.640 4.509 0.325 0.303 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.766 0.239 0.766 3.486 0.298 0.358 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.956 0.622 0.834 2.478 0.265 0.877 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.612 0.288 1.279 3.969 0.360 0.478 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.050 0.390 0.436 2.258 0.213 0.743 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.282 0.259 0.094 2.822 0.191 0.346 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.099 0.495 1.005 3.466 0.246 0.769 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.800 0.575 1.124 3.244 0.275 0.889 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.794 0.415 1.075 3.386 0.258 0.798 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.695 0.607 1.616 4.396 0.360 0.869 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.633 0.808 1.287 4.194 0.270 0.729 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.342 0.911 1.385 4.190 0.335 0.671 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.365 0.478 0.602 2.996 0.228 0.578 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.656 0.443 0.084 2.762 0.233 0.370 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.631 0.515 0.982 3.588 0.175 0.710 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.448 0.476 1.160 3.964 0.186 0.597 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.801 0.995 0.857 2.673 0.244 0.842 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.400 0.674 0.774 3.454 0.282 0.757 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1889 TO 1981 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.157 0.522 1.030 3.954 0.264 0.649 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.364 0.207 0.590 1.739 0.054 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 62 1.082 0.486 0.993 3.476 0.261 0.690 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.624 0.212 0.580 1.283 0.070 0.256 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.612 0.239 0.084 2.258 0.175 0.303 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.800 0.403 0.703 2.909 0.231 0.528 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.424 0.615 1.283 4.192 0.301 0.784 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.801 0.995 2.499 9.399 0.360 0.889 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.529 0.214 0.016 -0.202 2.284 -0.029 0.927 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.029 SERIES 635032 AND 635042 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.927 SERIES 635062 AND 635072 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.602 SDEV 0.233 SERR 0.035 EPS 0.964 NSS 17.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 1.233 0.389 0.304 2.136 0.181 0.694 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.020 0.013 0.428 15 78 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 2.29 1.15 1.26 3.55 14.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 18. 49. 54. 73. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.686 0.627 0.602 0.605 0.564 0.592 0.593 0.574 0.518 0.538 PACF 0.686 0.295 0.198 0.191 0.062 0.169 0.120 0.057 -0.045 0.070 95% C.L. 0.207 0.289 0.343 0.385 0.424 0.455 0.487 0.517 0.544 0.565 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.591 0.365 0.140 0.150 0.224 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 1 2.21144080 0.10671546 0.00000000 0.65863651 2 635012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00895373 1.30208147 3 635031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00416272 0.94691926 4 635032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160204 0.80576527 5 635041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02112484 1.85351980 6 635042 1 0.27121618 0.11479101 0.00000000 0.57203466 7 635051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01144162 1.58786345 8 635052 1 0.31563860 0.01852126 0.00000000 1.10423148 9 635061 1 1.66522956 0.03438934 0.00000000 0.51899153 10 635062 1 2.06075573 0.03017459 0.00000000 0.01195272 11 635071 1 1.33618498 0.02733742 0.00000000 0.19124207 12 635072 1 2.31657386 0.06104023 0.00000000 0.21500920 13 635081 1 3.57893395 0.24753593 0.00000000 1.42062557 14 635082 1 3.00596976 0.05237480 0.00000000 0.52136564 15 635091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02446063 2.00048637 16 635092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01420437 2.06125331 17 635101 1 1.54509068 0.05277354 0.00000000 1.12580085 18 635102 1 1.47657216 0.03562223 0.00000000 0.84961826 19 635111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04934037 3.30588126 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 1 2.32816076 0.04240594 0.00000000 0.49290195 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.999 0.333 0.576 4.348 0.301 0.272 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.999 0.349 2.299 9.135 0.231 0.571 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.999 0.330 0.700 4.262 0.320 0.311 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.310 0.718 3.367 0.292 0.350 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.173 0.778 2.729 11.060 0.264 0.772 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.462 1.325 4.196 0.353 0.436 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.006 0.247 0.361 3.477 0.209 0.482 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.199 0.291 2.725 0.188 0.315 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.251 0.520 3.167 0.240 0.258 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.016 0.351 0.691 3.840 0.271 0.454 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.004 0.314 0.206 2.992 0.252 0.492 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.011 0.380 0.878 4.352 0.349 0.395 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.403 1.385 6.442 0.265 0.615 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.002 0.379 0.583 3.275 0.329 0.385 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.001 0.225 0.464 3.750 0.222 0.260 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.236 0.155 2.194 0.229 0.236 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.205 0.348 3.299 0.172 0.384 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.205 0.861 4.394 0.181 0.215 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.037 0.336 1.178 4.700 0.243 0.444 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.305 0.399 4.723 0.278 0.299 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.012 0.330 0.833 4.485 0.260 0.397 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.039 0.128 0.673 2.144 0.053 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.322 0.637 4.018 0.258 0.384 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.005 0.124 0.648 1.260 0.071 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.999 0.199 0.155 2.194 0.172 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.241 0.380 3.287 0.226 0.285 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.005 0.365 1.028 4.547 0.297 0.468 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.173 0.778 2.729 11.060 0.353 0.772 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 635012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 635031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 635032 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 635041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 635042 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 635051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 635052 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 635061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 635062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 635071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 635072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 635081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 635082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 635091 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 635092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 635101 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 635102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 635111 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.993 0.302 0.743 4.445 0.299 0.151 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.995 0.307 1.778 6.835 0.231 0.480 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.996 0.313 0.767 4.462 0.319 0.240 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.998 0.287 0.663 3.503 0.291 0.223 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.987 0.312 0.550 3.419 0.260 0.426 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.991 0.404 1.321 4.616 0.351 0.368 7 635051 1889 1981 93 0.997 0.202 -0.240 2.957 0.209 0.259 8 635052 1914 1981 68 0.999 0.195 0.307 2.783 0.188 0.287 9 635061 1906 1981 76 0.999 0.244 0.494 3.302 0.240 0.226 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.997 0.307 0.182 2.672 0.270 0.379 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.995 0.273 -0.123 2.843 0.250 0.381 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.996 0.333 0.291 3.086 0.349 0.259 13 635081 1922 1981 60 0.990 0.325 0.359 3.667 0.263 0.456 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.997 0.354 0.287 2.665 0.329 0.338 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.998 0.215 0.346 3.468 0.222 0.202 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.999 0.231 0.067 2.138 0.229 0.213 17 635101 1929 1981 53 0.999 0.193 0.368 3.620 0.173 0.315 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.999 0.199 0.829 4.370 0.180 0.182 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.997 0.244 -0.009 3.794 0.241 0.241 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.995 0.285 0.227 4.015 0.277 0.245 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.996 0.276 0.460 3.633 0.259 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.003 0.059 0.475 1.018 0.053 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 0.997 0.286 0.353 3.485 0.255 0.259 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.004 0.090 0.498 1.293 0.070 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.987 0.193 -0.240 2.138 0.173 0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.995 0.223 0.205 2.900 0.225 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 0.999 0.313 0.703 4.193 0.295 0.374 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.999 0.404 1.778 6.835 0.351 0.480 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.359 0.168 0.012 -0.172 2.408 -0.073 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.073 SERIES 635082 AND 635111 59 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 635101 AND 635102 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.369 SDEV 0.191 SERR 0.028 EPS 0.911 NSS 17.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.988 0.174 0.144 3.033 0.189 0.120 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.217 0.111 0.067 24 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 1.35 1.01 1.06 2.41 5.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.119 -0.116 -0.083 -0.064 -0.182 -0.092 -0.021 0.015 0.020 0.098 PACF 0.119 -0.132 -0.053 -0.064 -0.190 -0.074 -0.064 -0.034 -0.026 0.049 95% C.L. 0.207 0.210 0.213 0.214 0.215 0.222 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.224 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.107 -0.201 -0.001 -0.035 -0.119 -0.102 -0.012 -0.003 -0.041 0.000 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.107 2 0.130 -0.215 3 0.141 -0.221 0.051 4 0.145 -0.241 0.064 -0.090 5 0.136 -0.235 0.040 -0.076 -0.099 6 0.126 -0.243 0.044 -0.101 -0.084 -0.107 7 0.122 -0.246 0.041 -0.100 -0.092 -0.103 -0.035 8 0.121 -0.251 0.037 -0.104 -0.090 -0.114 -0.029 -0.047 9 0.118 -0.253 0.030 -0.110 -0.097 -0.112 -0.045 -0.040 -0.062 10 0.116 -0.254 0.028 -0.113 -0.099 -0.115 -0.044 -0.046 -0.059 -0.027 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 610.62 611.55 609.16 610.92 612.16 613.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 614.17 616.06 617.85 619.50 621.43 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.130 -0.215 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.04 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.130 -0.198 -0.054 0.036 0.016 -0.006 -0.004 0.001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 635011 2 0.075 0.149 0.012 2 635012 2 0.262 0.531 -0.095 3 635031 2 0.064 0.244 -0.005 4 635032 2 0.169 0.303 -0.354 5 635041 2 0.195 0.384 0.108 6 635042 2 0.180 0.420 -0.139 7 635051 2 0.076 0.281 -0.076 8 635052 2 0.103 0.331 -0.143 9 635061 2 0.067 0.253 -0.115 10 635062 2 0.159 0.403 -0.055 11 635071 2 0.189 0.467 -0.209 12 635072 2 0.077 0.276 -0.059 13 635081 2 0.217 0.442 0.044 14 635082 2 0.138 0.383 -0.119 15 635091 2 0.070 0.206 -0.015 16 635092 2 0.134 0.270 -0.255 17 635101 2 0.159 0.396 -0.251 18 635102 2 0.040 0.199 -0.080 19 635111 2 0.108 0.296 -0.225 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 635112 2 0.062 0.240 0.029 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.127 0.324 -0.100 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.101 0.116 MEDIAN 2 0.121 0.299 -0.087 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.102 0.151 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.040 0.149 -0.354 LOWER HINGE 2 0.073 0.248 -0.176 UPPER HINGE 2 0.175 0.399 -0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.262 0.531 0.108 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.299 0.733 4.609 0.320 -0.003 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.267 0.803 4.899 0.310 0.010 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.304 0.605 4.390 0.352 0.000 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.261 0.398 3.789 0.309 0.010 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.280 0.531 3.323 0.307 0.002 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.372 1.268 4.849 0.394 -0.023 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.194 -0.186 3.091 0.224 -0.006 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.185 0.173 2.686 0.215 -0.002 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.236 0.736 3.998 0.260 0.006 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.283 0.233 3.721 0.332 -0.004 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.245 0.037 2.827 0.281 -0.016 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.321 0.454 3.074 0.379 0.006 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.288 0.354 3.004 0.316 0.004 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.330 0.355 2.686 0.373 -0.010 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.210 0.287 3.198 0.240 0.001 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.218 -0.153 2.538 0.260 -0.044 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.177 1.164 5.421 0.177 0.013 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.195 1.064 5.152 0.197 -0.001 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.230 -0.001 4.602 0.251 0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.276 0.121 3.996 0.312 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.259 0.449 3.793 0.290 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.053 0.416 0.911 0.061 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.264 0.376 3.755 0.308 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.079 0.587 1.567 0.081 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.177 -0.186 2.538 0.177 -0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.214 0.147 3.039 0.245 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.293 0.734 4.606 0.326 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.372 1.268 5.421 0.394 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.401 0.139 0.010 -0.092 2.515 0.038 0.697 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.038 SERIES 635041 AND 635071 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.697 SERIES 635051 AND 635052 68 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.420 SDEV 0.186 SERR 0.028 EPS 0.927 NSS 17.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.995 0.173 0.170 3.135 0.212 -0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.244 0.114 0.054 23 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.46 1.01 1.05 1.50 3.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.15 0.00 0.82 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 -0.071 -0.018 -0.018 -0.157 -0.066 -0.013 0.039 -0.003 0.086 PACF -0.141 -0.093 -0.044 -0.035 -0.176 -0.133 -0.087 -0.015 -0.034 0.043 95% C.L. 0.207 0.211 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.219 0.219 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.012 -0.063 -0.062 -0.182 -0.099 -0.036 0.042 0.018 0.100 PACF -0.003 -0.012 -0.063 -0.063 -0.186 -0.115 -0.061 0.004 -0.023 0.049 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.216 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.218 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 -0.003 -0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.994 0.176 0.132 2.883 0.191 0.108 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.107 -0.195 -0.076 -0.032 -0.173 -0.116 -0.010 0.046 0.034 0.095 PACF 0.107 -0.209 -0.030 -0.063 -0.194 -0.105 -0.078 -0.026 -0.022 0.053 95% C.L. 0.207 0.210 0.217 0.219 0.219 0.225 0.227 0.227 0.227 0.228 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.058 0.131 -0.217 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES