RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 635 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-f) WIDTH_LATE CEBR - 635 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1370 3459-3241 1889 1981 - 635 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 635071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.014 0.638 2.424 9.878 0.279 0.625 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.289 0.564 0.696 3.178 0.391 0.451 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.524 0.207 0.441 2.768 0.268 0.653 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.787 0.324 1.732 6.190 0.291 0.398 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.632 0.349 1.137 3.505 0.390 0.567 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.321 0.231 4.859 27.811 0.368 0.300 7 635051 1889 1981 93 0.471 0.281 1.075 3.126 0.256 0.788 8 635052 1914 1981 68 0.728 0.326 1.698 6.377 0.337 0.278 9 635061 1906 1981 76 0.573 0.240 0.879 3.878 0.315 0.508 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.377 0.186 0.724 2.546 0.282 0.763 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.351 0.175 1.673 6.155 0.264 0.765 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.281 0.185 1.095 3.201 0.310 0.811 13 635081 1922 1981 60 0.819 0.375 1.135 4.073 0.351 0.355 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.890 0.477 1.095 4.236 0.338 0.669 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.376 0.158 3.528 18.196 0.258 0.397 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.443 0.157 1.287 4.899 0.297 0.276 17 635101 1929 1981 53 0.653 0.264 1.228 5.589 0.297 0.519 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.572 0.211 0.274 2.687 0.272 0.447 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.693 0.366 0.444 2.094 0.311 0.713 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.594 0.271 1.020 4.829 0.305 0.460 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1889 TO 1981 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.619 0.299 1.422 6.261 0.309 0.537 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.254 0.134 1.094 6.204 0.042 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 62 0.584 0.267 1.115 4.154 0.301 0.513 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.348 0.161 0.884 3.021 0.062 0.293 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.281 0.157 0.274 2.094 0.256 0.276 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.410 0.197 0.802 3.152 0.275 0.398 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 0.758 0.358 1.685 6.173 0.338 0.691 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.289 0.638 4.859 27.811 0.391 0.811 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.360 0.216 0.016 -0.435 3.372 -0.389 0.848 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.389 SERIES 635031 AND 635051 70 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.848 SERIES 635062 AND 635072 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.305 SDEV 0.333 SERR 0.050 EPS 0.885 NSS 17.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.608 0.198 0.770 3.575 0.229 0.469 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.400 0.292 0.080 46 47 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.76 1.71 1.02 1.20 2.91 7.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 18. 49. 54. 73. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.464 0.329 0.277 0.228 0.210 0.212 0.210 0.116 0.070 0.128 PACF 0.464 0.146 0.103 0.052 0.060 0.070 0.062 -0.068 -0.042 0.084 95% C.L. 0.207 0.248 0.266 0.278 0.286 0.293 0.299 0.306 0.307 0.308 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.247 0.480 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 1 1.81392503 0.10920089 0.00000000 0.78634930 2 635012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00798856 1.50092757 3 635031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00161981 0.46649688 4 635032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00730306 0.60436225 5 635041 1 0.69937509 0.04140845 0.00000000 0.44069567 6 635042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063329 0.30284417 7 635051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00734266 0.81585789 8 635052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00083674 0.69936788 9 635061 1 0.43367702 0.05306379 0.00000000 0.47057045 10 635062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00613991 0.61620986 11 635071 1 0.52255344 0.04446507 0.00000000 0.18674564 12 635072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00661340 0.53553683 13 635081 1 1.17025542 0.24974127 0.00000000 0.74991578 14 635082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01658178 1.44503498 15 635091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00119095 0.34472156 16 635092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122591 0.40845454 17 635101 1 0.61223447 0.11341192 0.00000000 0.55744439 18 635102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00617533 0.76051414 19 635111 1 1.21774614 0.03305954 0.00000000 0.17242590 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00965651 0.85468793 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.508 2.304 8.153 0.272 0.412 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.999 0.414 0.320 2.501 0.383 0.383 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.999 0.385 0.373 2.640 0.264 0.622 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.999 0.377 1.654 6.122 0.286 0.372 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.516 1.965 7.803 0.385 0.493 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.702 4.623 26.037 0.361 0.298 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.047 0.564 3.391 19.628 0.253 0.668 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.445 1.693 6.552 0.332 0.274 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.403 1.501 5.959 0.311 0.390 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.016 0.376 1.484 7.335 0.280 0.446 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.001 0.284 0.578 3.864 0.263 0.345 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.123 0.668 2.750 13.896 0.313 0.560 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.422 1.431 6.167 0.341 0.221 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.013 0.494 3.102 16.343 0.335 0.325 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.406 3.132 15.817 0.253 0.375 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.338 0.878 4.034 0.292 0.253 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.363 1.303 5.336 0.292 0.383 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.358 1.437 5.154 0.269 0.331 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.004 0.459 3.418 18.707 0.308 0.220 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.002 0.462 2.924 11.696 0.298 0.119 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.010 0.447 2.013 9.687 0.304 0.375 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.029 0.105 1.157 6.562 0.041 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.418 1.674 6.943 0.295 0.374 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.003 0.124 1.646 9.612 0.063 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.999 0.284 0.320 2.501 0.253 0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.377 1.367 5.245 0.271 0.286 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.003 0.501 3.013 14.857 0.333 0.429 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.123 0.702 4.623 26.037 0.385 0.668 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 635012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 635031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 635032 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 635041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 635042 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 635051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 635052 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 635061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 635062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 635071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 635072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 635081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 635082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 635091 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 635092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 635101 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 635102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 635111 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.992 0.464 2.095 7.389 0.271 0.387 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.994 0.396 0.563 3.585 0.382 0.247 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.992 0.288 0.782 2.781 0.262 0.256 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.993 0.317 1.306 5.153 0.283 0.198 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.993 0.479 1.682 6.372 0.385 0.411 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.989 0.577 4.551 26.487 0.359 0.205 7 635051 1889 1981 93 0.986 0.313 1.416 6.451 0.250 0.419 8 635052 1914 1981 68 0.997 0.437 1.723 6.198 0.332 0.253 9 635061 1906 1981 76 0.998 0.390 1.349 5.327 0.311 0.374 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.995 0.310 0.865 4.352 0.278 0.243 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.998 0.265 0.380 3.181 0.262 0.244 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.987 0.330 1.200 4.582 0.307 0.095 13 635081 1922 1981 60 0.994 0.390 1.183 4.366 0.340 0.098 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.995 0.406 1.560 6.558 0.334 0.227 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.994 0.376 3.011 15.472 0.251 0.338 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.998 0.303 0.362 3.528 0.293 0.152 17 635101 1929 1981 53 0.995 0.338 1.177 4.980 0.293 0.296 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.996 0.342 1.507 5.267 0.268 0.288 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.994 0.382 1.957 8.448 0.308 0.113 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.996 0.430 2.554 9.432 0.298 0.090 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.994 0.377 1.561 6.995 0.303 0.247 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.003 0.076 0.973 5.382 0.041 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 0.994 0.379 1.382 5.297 0.296 0.246 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.003 0.103 0.819 2.615 0.063 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.986 0.265 0.362 2.781 0.250 0.090 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.993 0.315 1.021 4.359 0.270 0.175 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 0.996 0.418 1.840 6.973 0.333 0.317 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.998 0.577 4.551 26.487 0.385 0.419 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.394 0.154 0.011 0.153 2.461 0.055 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.055 SERIES 635062 AND 635081 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 635111 AND 635112 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.229 SDEV 0.175 SERR 0.026 EPS 0.839 NSS 17.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.969 0.227 1.450 6.711 0.201 0.159 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.527 0.305 -0.062 27 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.50 1.00 1.06 1.56 2.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.158 0.025 -0.057 -0.141 -0.068 -0.098 0.075 -0.020 -0.068 -0.086 PACF 0.158 0.000 -0.063 -0.126 -0.027 -0.085 0.095 -0.068 -0.082 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.207 0.212 0.213 0.213 0.217 0.218 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.222 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 0.159 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.176 0.029 -0.065 -0.215 -0.102 -0.132 0.119 0.088 -0.078 -0.137 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.176 2 0.176 -0.002 3 0.176 0.010 -0.072 4 0.162 0.013 -0.037 -0.198 5 0.155 0.011 -0.036 -0.193 -0.033 6 0.152 -0.011 -0.041 -0.192 -0.016 -0.113 7 0.169 -0.008 -0.012 -0.186 -0.014 -0.136 0.150 8 0.168 -0.008 -0.012 -0.185 -0.014 -0.136 0.150 0.002 9 0.169 0.014 -0.031 -0.187 -0.041 -0.138 0.149 0.027 -0.145 10 0.144 0.018 -0.007 -0.210 -0.048 -0.169 0.144 0.029 -0.117 -0.167 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 676.71 675.78 677.78 679.30 677.57 679.47 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 680.27 680.14 682.14 682.17 681.55 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.176 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.19 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.176 0.031 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 635011 1 0.163 0.389 2 635012 1 0.076 0.275 3 635031 1 0.069 0.261 4 635032 1 0.055 0.198 5 635041 1 0.195 0.411 6 635042 1 0.048 0.206 7 635051 1 0.179 0.423 8 635052 1 0.065 0.253 9 635061 1 0.142 0.377 10 635062 1 0.133 0.244 11 635071 1 0.062 0.247 12 635072 1 0.014 0.096 13 635081 1 0.043 0.098 14 635082 1 0.075 0.228 15 635091 1 0.123 0.342 16 635092 1 0.043 0.157 17 635101 1 0.092 0.298 18 635102 1 0.094 0.293 19 635111 1 0.032 0.114 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 635112 1 0.020 0.091 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.086 0.250 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.053 0.105 MEDIAN 1 0.072 0.250 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.082 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.014 0.091 LOWER HINGE 1 0.046 0.178 UPPER HINGE 1 0.128 0.320 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.195 0.423 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.427 2.459 9.720 0.331 0.044 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.378 0.479 3.462 0.434 -0.033 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.278 0.681 3.176 0.295 -0.009 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.311 1.356 5.721 0.314 -0.024 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.437 1.194 5.078 0.473 -0.072 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.564 4.989 30.663 0.410 0.016 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.283 1.164 6.362 0.300 -0.004 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.423 1.807 6.582 0.367 -0.009 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.362 0.934 4.241 0.378 -0.003 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.301 0.731 4.167 0.302 0.067 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.256 0.395 3.242 0.292 0.008 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.328 1.218 4.693 0.320 -0.007 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.388 1.215 4.576 0.361 -0.018 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.396 1.779 7.194 0.346 0.031 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.352 2.495 12.685 0.300 0.024 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.300 0.297 3.532 0.312 0.025 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.323 0.612 3.668 0.345 -0.019 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.327 1.418 5.100 0.315 -0.023 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.380 2.044 8.780 0.322 0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.428 2.585 9.765 0.305 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.362 1.493 7.120 0.341 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.072 1.081 6.117 0.050 0.030 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.357 1.216 5.089 0.321 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.103 1.220 4.069 0.061 0.039 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.256 0.297 3.176 0.292 -0.072 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.306 0.706 3.917 0.303 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.409 1.926 7.987 0.364 0.020 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.564 4.989 30.663 0.473 0.067 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.417 0.142 0.010 0.077 2.763 0.055 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.055 SERIES 635042 AND 635052 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 635111 AND 635112 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.241 SDEV 0.164 SERR 0.024 EPS 0.848 NSS 17.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.979 0.224 1.173 7.145 0.232 -0.102 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.460 0.269 -0.037 28 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.70 1.01 1.06 1.75 2.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.101 -0.002 -0.042 -0.126 -0.021 -0.124 0.113 0.023 -0.037 -0.041 PACF -0.101 -0.012 -0.044 -0.136 -0.051 -0.141 0.071 0.017 -0.055 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.207 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.213 0.213 0.216 0.219 0.219 0.219 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.018 -0.053 -0.136 -0.047 -0.117 0.104 0.030 -0.041 -0.046 PACF -0.001 -0.018 -0.053 -0.136 -0.051 -0.129 0.086 0.002 -0.064 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.212 0.212 0.215 0.217 0.217 0.218 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.979 0.226 1.349 6.392 0.198 0.169 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.167 -0.004 -0.069 -0.156 -0.088 -0.111 0.081 0.031 -0.047 -0.058 PACF 0.167 -0.033 -0.065 -0.138 -0.044 -0.103 0.101 -0.030 -0.077 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.207 0.213 0.213 0.214 0.219 0.220 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.225 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.030 0.169 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES