RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 635 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-f) DENSITY_MINIMUM CEBR - 635 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1370 3459-3241 1889 1981 - 635 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 635052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 635071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.439 0.031 -0.356 2.737 0.049 0.655 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.393 0.025 -0.354 2.964 0.048 0.523 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.373 0.020 0.556 3.231 0.050 0.311 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.379 0.022 0.064 3.325 0.049 0.333 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.376 0.033 0.510 2.904 0.043 0.804 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.376 0.021 0.752 5.332 0.045 0.355 7 635051 1889 1981 93 0.385 0.024 0.319 3.545 0.049 0.365 8 635052 1914 1981 68 0.373 0.023 0.918 6.709 0.051 0.317 9 635061 1906 1981 76 0.363 0.026 0.891 3.985 0.052 0.549 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.374 0.035 -0.001 2.786 0.052 0.684 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.375 0.026 0.983 4.350 0.052 0.541 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.387 0.046 0.776 3.822 0.071 0.606 13 635081 1922 1981 60 0.353 0.026 0.057 4.057 0.045 0.677 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.352 0.031 -0.169 2.836 0.052 0.725 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.350 0.036 0.691 2.939 0.035 0.858 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.339 0.029 1.300 4.997 0.052 0.498 17 635101 1929 1981 53 0.349 0.021 2.502 13.137 0.049 0.178 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.341 0.019 0.364 3.003 0.047 0.466 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.356 0.032 1.559 6.140 0.054 0.613 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.357 0.032 1.978 7.235 0.055 0.661 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1889 TO 1981 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 64 0.370 0.028 0.667 4.502 0.050 0.536 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.023 0.007 0.752 2.448 0.007 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.373 0.026 0.623 3.684 0.050 0.545 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.025 0.010 0.890 2.213 0.004 0.309 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.339 0.019 -0.356 2.737 0.035 0.178 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.352 0.022 0.061 2.952 0.048 0.360 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 0.378 0.032 0.951 5.165 0.052 0.669 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.439 0.046 2.502 13.137 0.071 0.858 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.402 0.159 0.012 -0.267 2.583 -0.026 0.729 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.026 SERIES 635032 AND 635072 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.729 SERIES 635041 AND 635072 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.351 SDEV 0.219 SERR 0.033 EPS 0.905 NSS 17.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.366 0.021 1.507 7.453 0.039 0.357 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.075 0.044 0.011 28 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.52 1.02 1.08 1.60 2.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.83 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 18. 49. 54. 73. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.353 0.379 0.411 0.308 0.236 0.339 0.288 0.320 0.320 0.201 PACF 0.353 0.290 0.267 0.078 -0.026 0.147 0.089 0.131 0.075 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.207 0.232 0.257 0.284 0.298 0.306 0.322 0.332 0.345 0.358 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.294 0.138 0.277 0.282 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070150 0.41443309 2 635012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078246 0.37214932 3 635031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000262 0.37262112 4 635032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050612 0.36673471 5 635041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098198 0.33457544 6 635042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023069 0.36931819 7 635051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050595 0.36148903 8 635052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031742 0.36091560 9 635061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047478 0.34448421 10 635062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118907 0.32752222 11 635071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084859 0.34611830 12 635072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00146220 0.33054736 13 635081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00109058 0.31990397 14 635082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00120196 0.31155246 15 635091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183167 0.30276865 16 635092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096343 0.31200650 17 635101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029592 0.34087807 18 635102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076493 0.31783617 19 635111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00107669 0.32332769 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112401 0.32663280 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.063 -0.217 2.856 0.049 0.539 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.056 -0.112 3.911 0.047 0.417 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.054 0.555 3.230 0.049 0.307 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.055 -0.099 3.381 0.048 0.239 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.060 0.232 2.954 0.043 0.523 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.056 0.840 5.193 0.044 0.332 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.052 1.590 9.684 0.049 0.071 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.057 1.171 6.908 0.051 0.230 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.066 0.582 3.713 0.052 0.455 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.060 0.700 4.177 0.052 0.304 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.052 1.178 4.670 0.051 0.223 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.083 1.395 6.863 0.071 0.262 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.049 -0.675 4.597 0.044 0.381 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.059 0.524 3.160 0.051 0.380 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.066 2.312 8.130 0.035 0.633 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.073 3.365 19.293 0.051 0.283 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.058 2.778 14.831 0.048 0.127 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.039 0.172 2.935 0.047 -0.052 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.074 1.456 5.367 0.054 0.444 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.074 1.479 6.514 0.054 0.481 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.060 0.961 6.118 0.050 0.329 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.010 1.030 4.250 0.007 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.058 0.770 4.634 0.049 0.319 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.012 1.266 3.580 0.004 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.039 -0.675 2.856 0.035 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.054 0.202 3.306 0.047 0.235 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.066 1.468 6.886 0.051 0.449 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.083 3.365 19.293 0.071 0.633 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 635012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 635031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 635032 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 635041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 635042 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 635051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 635052 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 635061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 635062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 635071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 635072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 635081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 635082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 635091 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 635092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 635101 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 635102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 635111 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.048 -0.214 3.268 0.049 0.220 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.049 -0.268 3.607 0.048 0.244 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.051 0.583 3.024 0.049 0.236 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.049 -0.372 3.596 0.049 0.108 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.051 0.129 2.930 0.043 0.395 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.046 0.902 5.860 0.045 0.044 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.050 1.252 8.280 0.049 0.017 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.056 1.223 7.350 0.051 0.194 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.062 0.457 3.412 0.052 0.385 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.056 0.716 4.559 0.052 0.218 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.048 1.328 5.062 0.051 0.100 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.068 1.123 6.069 0.071 -0.030 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.045 -0.798 4.560 0.044 0.276 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.054 0.449 3.346 0.051 0.263 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.054 2.197 8.383 0.035 0.501 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.057 2.638 14.139 0.052 -0.056 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.056 3.390 18.837 0.048 0.084 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.038 0.170 2.897 0.047 -0.072 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.062 1.389 5.156 0.054 0.272 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.062 1.283 6.506 0.054 0.308 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.053 0.879 6.042 0.050 0.185 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.007 1.039 4.041 0.007 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.053 0.809 4.811 0.049 0.219 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.008 1.156 3.550 0.005 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.038 -0.798 2.897 0.035 -0.072 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.048 0.149 3.379 0.047 0.064 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.057 1.305 6.928 0.052 0.274 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.068 3.390 18.837 0.071 0.501 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.237 0.154 0.011 -0.173 2.960 -0.167 0.686 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.167 SERIES 635082 AND 635092 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.686 SERIES 635032 AND 635051 49 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.238 SDEV 0.160 SERR 0.024 EPS 0.846 NSS 17.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.998 0.041 1.552 7.814 0.042 -0.022 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.122 0.054 -0.017 32 61 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.55 1.01 1.07 1.62 7.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 -0.009 -0.061 -0.208 -0.207 -0.104 -0.034 0.040 0.165 0.060 PACF -0.022 -0.010 -0.062 -0.212 -0.232 -0.154 -0.109 -0.073 0.040 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.217 0.225 0.227 0.228 0.228 0.233 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.157 0.023 -0.109 -0.335 -0.218 -0.210 -0.003 0.028 0.153 0.057 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.157 2 0.157 -0.002 3 0.157 0.016 -0.115 4 0.121 0.021 -0.066 -0.311 5 0.077 0.011 -0.063 -0.294 -0.143 6 0.048 -0.046 -0.076 -0.292 -0.128 -0.196 7 0.042 -0.050 -0.085 -0.294 -0.130 -0.195 -0.033 8 0.038 -0.075 -0.102 -0.332 -0.141 -0.201 -0.027 -0.128 9 0.039 -0.075 -0.100 -0.330 -0.137 -0.200 -0.026 -0.128 0.012 10 0.041 -0.093 -0.103 -0.359 -0.156 -0.247 -0.041 -0.139 0.017 -0.144 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 272.12 271.80 273.80 274.56 267.07 267.14 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 265.49 267.39 267.86 269.85 269.91 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.53 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.157 0.025 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 635011 1 0.049 0.221 2 635012 1 0.060 0.246 3 635031 1 0.059 0.239 4 635032 1 0.014 0.111 5 635041 1 0.167 0.406 6 635042 1 0.042 0.044 7 635051 1 0.010 0.018 8 635052 1 0.077 0.195 9 635061 1 0.162 0.386 10 635062 1 0.055 0.219 11 635071 1 0.011 0.100 12 635072 1 0.011 -0.030 13 635081 1 0.088 0.279 14 635082 1 0.073 0.271 15 635091 1 0.254 0.504 16 635092 1 0.004 -0.057 17 635101 1 0.026 0.084 18 635102 1 0.012 -0.072 19 635111 1 0.077 0.272 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 635112 1 0.103 0.309 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.068 0.187 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 0.159 MEDIAN 1 0.057 0.220 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.069 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.004 -0.072 LOWER HINGE 1 0.013 0.064 UPPER HINGE 1 0.082 0.275 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.254 0.504 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.047 -0.350 3.236 0.054 -0.001 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.047 -0.457 4.188 0.054 -0.002 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.049 0.730 3.306 0.055 0.013 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.048 -0.469 3.721 0.053 -0.005 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.047 -0.078 2.973 0.049 0.005 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.046 0.950 6.044 0.046 0.008 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.050 1.262 8.383 0.049 -0.002 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.055 1.212 6.817 0.054 0.038 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.057 0.429 3.695 0.059 0.049 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.055 0.864 4.815 0.058 -0.018 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.048 1.337 5.232 0.054 0.004 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.068 1.131 6.073 0.070 -0.003 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.043 -0.524 3.672 0.051 0.027 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.052 0.340 3.107 0.059 -0.005 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.046 2.784 14.770 0.047 -0.008 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.057 2.540 13.551 0.050 0.002 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.056 3.487 19.353 0.050 0.011 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.038 0.151 2.875 0.045 0.006 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.060 1.791 6.624 0.059 0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.059 1.324 6.532 0.064 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.052 0.923 6.448 0.054 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.007 1.118 4.464 0.006 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.050 0.907 5.023 0.054 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.010 1.295 3.231 0.009 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.038 -0.524 2.875 0.045 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.047 0.036 3.489 0.050 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.057 1.331 6.720 0.059 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.068 3.487 19.353 0.070 0.049 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.241 0.147 0.011 -0.253 3.055 -0.172 0.665 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.172 SERIES 635031 AND 635092 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.665 SERIES 635032 AND 635051 49 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.253 SDEV 0.152 SERR 0.023 EPS 0.856 NSS 17.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.998 0.040 1.492 7.853 0.045 -0.160 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.133 0.057 -0.023 30 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.77 1.01 1.03 1.80 7.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.158 -0.005 -0.026 -0.165 -0.139 -0.076 -0.029 0.001 0.176 0.011 PACF -0.158 -0.030 -0.032 -0.179 -0.209 -0.167 -0.122 -0.111 0.068 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.207 0.212 0.212 0.213 0.218 0.222 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.229 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.026 -0.159 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.035 -0.055 -0.200 -0.186 -0.108 -0.042 0.025 0.187 0.033 PACF -0.003 -0.035 -0.055 -0.203 -0.203 -0.154 -0.114 -0.082 0.077 -0.060 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.216 0.223 0.225 0.226 0.226 0.232 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.998 0.040 1.419 7.141 0.038 0.147 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.145 -0.026 -0.092 -0.241 -0.236 -0.147 -0.055 0.046 0.193 0.062 PACF 0.145 -0.048 -0.084 -0.223 -0.193 -0.138 -0.098 -0.052 0.074 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.207 0.212 0.212 0.214 0.225 0.235 0.239 0.240 0.240 0.247 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES