RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 635 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-f) LATEWOOD_PERCENT CEBR - 635 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1370 3459-3241 1889 1981 - 635 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 635071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 5.160 1.114 0.366 3.595 0.199 0.303 2 635012 1930 1981 52 5.358 0.959 -0.461 2.623 0.192 0.213 3 635031 1912 1981 70 3.978 1.133 -0.089 3.086 0.263 0.309 4 635032 1933 1981 49 4.992 1.054 1.025 3.604 0.169 0.468 5 635041 1898 1981 84 4.203 1.231 0.398 3.552 0.242 0.485 6 635042 1926 1981 56 3.413 0.910 0.900 4.176 0.236 0.295 7 635051 1889 1981 93 2.949 0.699 0.818 3.052 0.199 0.393 8 635052 1914 1981 68 3.521 0.886 0.746 4.374 0.261 0.132 9 635061 1906 1981 76 3.494 0.914 1.065 4.272 0.239 0.312 10 635062 1905 1981 77 3.542 0.874 0.282 2.497 0.176 0.530 11 635071 1915 1981 67 3.159 0.698 0.820 4.787 0.220 0.233 12 635072 1906 1981 76 3.209 0.980 0.547 2.964 0.291 0.219 13 635081 1922 1981 60 3.419 0.825 0.493 2.831 0.251 0.172 14 635082 1915 1980 66 4.180 1.139 0.302 3.254 0.248 0.233 15 635091 1931 1981 51 2.239 0.743 1.172 4.729 0.237 0.583 16 635092 1926 1981 56 2.132 0.575 1.141 5.261 0.274 0.219 17 635101 1929 1981 53 2.833 0.628 0.969 3.888 0.234 0.052 18 635102 1922 1981 60 2.823 0.678 1.315 5.354 0.242 0.052 19 635111 1922 1981 60 2.849 1.065 3.309 17.237 0.256 0.398 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 3.096 1.020 1.888 6.585 0.244 0.489 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1889 TO 1981 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 3.527 0.906 0.850 4.586 0.234 0.304 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.891 0.189 0.778 3.156 0.032 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 62 3.416 0.912 0.819 3.746 0.241 0.299 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 1.180 0.338 0.721 1.689 0.044 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 49 2.132 0.575 -0.461 2.497 0.169 0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 2.899 0.721 0.382 3.069 0.209 0.216 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 4.079 1.059 1.103 4.758 0.254 0.433 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 5.358 1.231 3.309 17.237 0.291 0.583 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.318 0.161 0.012 -0.253 3.040 -0.198 0.671 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.198 SERIES 635041 AND 635051 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.671 SERIES 635091 AND 635092 51 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.326 SDEV 0.161 SERR 0.024 EPS 0.895 NSS 17.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 3.368 0.612 0.510 4.642 0.168 0.282 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.371 0.292 -0.022 14 79 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.61 1.01 1.06 1.67 123.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 18. 49. 54. 73. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.279 0.114 0.201 0.154 0.045 0.010 -0.026 0.109 0.089 0.104 PACF 0.279 0.039 0.173 0.061 -0.030 -0.036 -0.062 0.135 0.047 0.097 95% C.L. 0.207 0.223 0.225 0.233 0.237 0.238 0.238 0.238 0.240 0.241 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.079 0.279 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01140556 4.76080561 2 635012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00604499 5.19807720 3 635031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01875129 3.31190062 4 635032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02694796 4.31874990 5 635041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02513536 3.13508034 6 635042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032365 3.40345454 7 635051 1 1.15556240 0.02053988 0.00000000 2.43862152 8 635052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00653739 3.29534245 9 635061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01787751 2.80566311 10 635062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02502839 2.56597066 11 635071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00479207 2.97286582 12 635072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01126384 2.77515793 13 635081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00758016 3.18763852 14 635082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00957562 3.85951972 15 635091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03453122 1.34081566 16 635092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01650649 1.66135061 17 635101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00378487 2.73044991 18 635102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158044 2.77479649 19 635111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01084357 2.51827121 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01781406 2.61486936 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.213 0.553 4.204 0.196 0.264 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.178 -0.454 2.640 0.189 0.209 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.999 0.283 0.564 3.608 0.259 0.204 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.196 1.113 3.767 0.165 0.392 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.999 0.260 0.490 3.244 0.239 0.305 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.267 0.894 4.150 0.232 0.290 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.215 0.860 4.342 0.197 0.277 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.248 0.722 4.412 0.257 0.119 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.233 1.022 5.045 0.237 0.157 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.191 0.687 3.029 0.174 0.252 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.223 0.900 4.727 0.212 0.247 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.999 0.296 0.647 3.082 0.287 0.181 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.237 0.432 2.785 0.247 0.141 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.272 0.444 3.292 0.244 0.206 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.002 0.234 0.424 2.717 0.229 0.205 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.001 0.230 0.178 3.055 0.269 0.006 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.218 0.779 3.507 0.229 0.041 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.239 1.263 5.237 0.238 0.048 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.347 2.558 12.970 0.252 0.364 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.303 1.529 5.725 0.239 0.423 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.244 0.780 4.277 0.230 0.217 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.001 0.042 0.590 2.231 0.032 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.236 0.704 3.687 0.237 0.208 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.053 0.495 1.501 0.045 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.999 0.178 -0.454 2.640 0.165 0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.217 0.467 3.068 0.205 0.149 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.270 0.961 4.569 0.249 0.283 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.002 0.347 2.558 12.970 0.287 0.423 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 635012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 635031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 635032 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 635041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 635042 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 635051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 635052 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 635061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 635062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 635071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 635072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 635081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 635082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 635091 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 635092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 635101 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 635102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 635111 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.998 0.197 0.909 5.259 0.195 0.122 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.999 0.172 -0.395 2.657 0.189 0.123 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.997 0.242 1.068 4.944 0.259 -0.141 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.997 0.163 0.928 3.183 0.163 0.188 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.997 0.242 0.468 2.987 0.238 0.192 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.998 0.251 0.812 3.827 0.230 0.241 7 635051 1889 1981 93 0.998 0.196 0.825 4.747 0.197 0.139 8 635052 1914 1981 68 0.999 0.243 0.756 3.961 0.257 0.078 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.229 0.991 4.944 0.236 0.132 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.183 0.584 2.777 0.174 0.205 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.999 0.219 1.041 4.930 0.212 0.218 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.998 0.262 0.452 2.762 0.285 0.027 13 635081 1922 1981 60 0.999 0.233 0.451 2.780 0.247 0.104 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.998 0.255 1.134 5.173 0.246 0.065 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.999 0.220 0.319 3.043 0.229 0.145 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.999 0.212 0.008 2.679 0.270 -0.175 17 635101 1929 1981 53 0.999 0.213 0.690 3.378 0.228 -0.006 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.998 0.224 1.414 5.629 0.238 -0.072 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.995 0.291 1.535 6.824 0.252 0.227 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.997 0.288 1.360 5.182 0.237 0.386 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.998 0.227 0.768 4.083 0.229 0.110 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.001 0.034 0.471 1.239 0.032 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 0.998 0.226 0.819 3.894 0.237 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.002 0.042 0.595 2.175 0.045 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.995 0.163 -0.395 2.657 0.163 -0.175 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.998 0.204 0.460 2.884 0.204 0.046 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 0.999 0.247 1.055 5.059 0.249 0.198 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.291 1.535 6.824 0.285 0.386 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.325 0.141 0.010 0.041 3.147 -0.088 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.088 SERIES 635071 AND 635091 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 635101 AND 635102 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.311 SDEV 0.135 SERR 0.020 EPS 0.888 NSS 17.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.988 0.153 0.986 5.120 0.163 0.031 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.244 0.143 0.026 28 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.23 1.00 1.06 1.29 2.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.031 -0.107 0.005 -0.077 -0.140 -0.099 -0.122 0.032 0.008 0.030 PACF 0.031 -0.108 0.012 -0.090 -0.135 -0.114 -0.157 0.000 -0.057 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.215 0.217 0.220 0.220 0.220 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.010 -0.087 0.075 -0.121 -0.217 -0.135 -0.051 0.111 0.051 0.030 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.010 2 0.011 -0.087 3 0.018 -0.088 0.078 4 0.028 -0.100 0.080 -0.133 5 0.001 -0.083 0.060 -0.127 -0.204 6 -0.034 -0.105 0.070 -0.141 -0.204 -0.171 7 -0.049 -0.122 0.058 -0.136 -0.213 -0.174 -0.084 8 -0.040 -0.105 0.079 -0.122 -0.219 -0.161 -0.079 0.100 9 -0.041 -0.104 0.081 -0.119 -0.217 -0.163 -0.078 0.101 0.013 10 -0.041 -0.101 0.080 -0.123 -0.222 -0.165 -0.076 0.098 0.012 -0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 563.38 565.37 566.66 568.10 568.44 566.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 565.72 567.06 568.12 570.11 572.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 635011 0 0.015 2 635012 0 0.017 3 635031 0 0.020 4 635032 0 0.036 5 635041 0 0.038 6 635042 0 0.060 7 635051 0 0.019 8 635052 0 0.006 9 635061 0 0.018 10 635062 0 0.042 11 635071 0 0.048 12 635072 0 0.001 13 635081 0 0.011 14 635082 0 0.004 15 635091 0 0.021 16 635092 0 0.032 17 635101 0 0.000 18 635102 0 0.005 19 635111 0 0.052 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 635112 0 0.157 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.035 MEDIAN 0 0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.009 UPPER HINGE 0 0.040 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.157 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.197 0.909 5.259 0.194 0.122 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.172 -0.395 2.657 0.189 0.123 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.242 1.068 4.944 0.258 -0.141 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.163 0.928 3.183 0.163 0.188 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.242 0.468 2.987 0.237 0.192 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.251 0.812 3.827 0.229 0.241 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.196 0.825 4.747 0.196 0.139 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.243 0.756 3.961 0.257 0.078 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.229 0.991 4.944 0.236 0.132 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.183 0.584 2.777 0.174 0.205 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.219 1.041 4.930 0.212 0.218 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.262 0.452 2.762 0.284 0.027 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.233 0.451 2.780 0.247 0.104 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.255 1.134 5.173 0.245 0.065 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.220 0.319 3.043 0.228 0.145 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.212 0.008 2.679 0.269 -0.175 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.213 0.690 3.378 0.228 -0.006 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.224 1.414 5.629 0.237 -0.072 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.291 1.535 6.824 0.250 0.227 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.288 1.360 5.182 0.237 0.386 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.227 0.768 4.083 0.229 0.110 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.034 0.471 1.239 0.032 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.226 0.819 3.894 0.237 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.042 0.595 2.175 0.044 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.163 -0.395 2.657 0.163 -0.175 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.204 0.460 2.884 0.204 0.046 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.247 1.055 5.059 0.249 0.198 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.291 1.535 6.824 0.284 0.386 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.325 0.141 0.010 0.041 3.147 -0.088 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.088 SERIES 635071 AND 635091 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 635101 AND 635102 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.311 SDEV 0.135 SERR 0.020 EPS 0.888 NSS 17.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.989 0.153 0.986 5.118 0.163 0.032 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.245 0.143 0.026 27 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.23 1.01 1.07 1.29 2.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 -0.107 0.005 -0.077 -0.140 -0.100 -0.121 0.032 0.008 0.030 PACF 0.032 -0.108 0.012 -0.091 -0.135 -0.115 -0.156 0.000 -0.057 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.215 0.217 0.220 0.220 0.220 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.989 0.153 0.986 5.118 0.163 0.032 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 -0.107 0.005 -0.077 -0.140 -0.100 -0.121 0.032 0.008 0.030 PACF 0.032 -0.108 0.012 -0.091 -0.135 -0.115 -0.156 0.000 -0.057 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.215 0.217 0.220 0.220 0.220 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES