RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 635 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-f) WIDTH_RING CEBR - 635 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1370 3459-3241 1889 1981 - 635 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 635071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.957 1.017 1.355 4.094 0.218 0.822 2 635012 1930 1981 52 2.354 0.873 1.312 4.796 0.264 0.597 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.323 0.369 0.315 3.524 0.207 0.533 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.553 0.422 0.596 2.849 0.234 0.395 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.587 0.847 0.527 2.085 0.244 0.876 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.933 0.451 2.067 7.616 0.332 0.433 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.521 0.635 0.588 2.284 0.180 0.828 8 635052 1914 1981 68 2.010 0.475 0.858 4.401 0.174 0.468 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.673 0.650 0.696 2.948 0.203 0.780 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.177 0.733 0.887 2.627 0.248 0.897 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.145 0.563 1.051 3.075 0.203 0.859 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.976 0.760 1.375 3.616 0.272 0.907 13 635081 1922 1981 60 2.452 1.079 1.005 3.524 0.252 0.724 14 635082 1915 1980 66 2.231 1.248 0.950 3.200 0.251 0.804 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.740 0.534 0.549 2.853 0.213 0.521 16 635092 1926 1981 56 2.100 0.514 -0.186 2.607 0.214 0.370 17 635101 1929 1981 53 2.284 0.711 0.903 3.829 0.168 0.746 18 635102 1922 1981 60 2.020 0.615 0.730 3.358 0.162 0.683 19 635111 1922 1981 60 2.494 1.294 0.827 2.452 0.198 0.866 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.994 0.849 0.541 2.928 0.250 0.750 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1889 TO 1981 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.776 0.732 0.847 3.433 0.224 0.693 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.489 0.267 0.466 1.208 0.041 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 62 1.849 0.680 0.842 3.138 0.216 0.748 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.744 0.337 0.459 0.985 0.050 0.316 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.933 0.369 -0.186 2.085 0.162 0.370 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.422 0.524 0.569 2.738 0.201 0.527 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 2.166 0.861 1.028 3.723 0.250 0.843 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 2.494 1.294 2.067 7.616 0.332 0.907 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.492 0.247 0.018 -0.280 2.125 -0.102 0.938 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.102 SERIES 635032 AND 635111 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.938 SERIES 635062 AND 635072 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.501 SDEV 0.339 SERR 0.051 EPS 0.946 NSS 17.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 1.883 0.529 0.116 2.059 0.168 0.691 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.132 0.084 0.487 17 76 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 0.74 1.01 1.11 1.85 8.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 18. 49. 54. 73. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.684 0.601 0.578 0.560 0.545 0.558 0.566 0.499 0.458 0.493 PACF 0.684 0.250 0.197 0.141 0.111 0.143 0.125 -0.047 -0.033 0.109 95% C.L. 0.207 0.289 0.338 0.378 0.412 0.442 0.472 0.500 0.521 0.538 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.561 0.475 0.132 0.221 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 1 4.03046370 0.10820143 0.00000000 1.44622874 2 635012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01694229 2.80300903 3 635031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254291 1.41341615 4 635032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00570102 1.41012752 5 635041 1 2.91393971 0.02556267 0.00000000 0.40404138 6 635042 1 0.49034458 0.16328919 0.00000000 0.88331985 7 635051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01878428 2.40372133 8 635052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00236058 2.09173393 9 635061 1 2.07403350 0.03887257 0.00000000 1.02016413 10 635062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02783033 2.26213598 11 635071 1 1.82349193 0.03198039 0.00000000 0.40582141 12 635072 1 2.81941295 0.05010031 0.00000000 0.26949850 13 635081 1 4.74961662 0.24811870 0.00000000 2.17057109 14 635082 1 4.26910400 0.03643022 0.00000000 0.64531243 15 635091 1 1.83141947 0.02150551 0.00000000 0.63994682 16 635092 1 1.15384126 0.01868247 0.00000000 1.39102948 17 635101 1 2.08913350 0.06843174 0.00000000 1.74262047 18 635102 1 2.14540052 0.02415732 0.00000000 0.90124875 19 635111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06531064 4.48614120 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 1 3.06333518 0.03460269 0.00000000 0.61447966 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.345 1.639 6.732 0.212 0.491 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.999 0.338 0.903 4.270 0.259 0.530 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.280 0.449 3.263 0.204 0.539 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.266 0.621 2.947 0.229 0.370 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.002 0.344 0.924 5.207 0.242 0.570 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.485 2.447 9.722 0.325 0.397 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.012 0.290 1.168 5.325 0.178 0.673 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.237 0.956 4.288 0.171 0.454 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.258 0.994 5.425 0.198 0.430 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.145 0.715 3.318 15.255 0.249 0.686 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.003 0.274 0.184 2.614 0.202 0.533 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.012 0.331 0.743 3.852 0.266 0.526 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.358 0.851 4.331 0.247 0.587 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.003 0.348 1.728 8.545 0.245 0.438 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.248 1.792 8.917 0.210 0.360 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.232 0.127 2.345 0.211 0.306 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.218 0.454 3.420 0.165 0.504 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.204 0.961 4.686 0.157 0.451 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.043 0.323 1.469 4.972 0.201 0.605 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.285 1.882 11.323 0.249 0.129 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.011 0.319 1.181 5.872 0.221 0.479 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.033 0.113 0.784 3.315 0.040 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.288 0.959 4.829 0.211 0.498 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.003 0.091 1.001 4.003 0.048 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.999 0.204 0.127 2.345 0.157 0.129 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.253 0.682 3.636 0.200 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.003 0.344 1.684 7.638 0.248 0.555 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.145 0.715 3.318 15.255 0.325 0.686 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 635012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 635031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 635032 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 635041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 635042 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 635051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 635052 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 635061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 635062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 635071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 635072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 635081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 635082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 635091 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 635092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 635101 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 635102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 635111 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 0.995 0.315 1.552 6.194 0.211 0.459 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.995 0.306 0.709 3.546 0.257 0.394 3 635031 1912 1981 70 0.996 0.238 0.588 3.399 0.203 0.407 4 635032 1933 1981 49 0.998 0.244 0.516 2.997 0.227 0.239 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.994 0.324 1.123 5.821 0.241 0.522 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.993 0.423 2.332 9.495 0.324 0.329 7 635051 1889 1981 93 0.994 0.201 0.155 3.374 0.177 0.403 8 635052 1914 1981 68 0.999 0.232 1.132 4.784 0.170 0.430 9 635061 1906 1981 76 0.999 0.250 0.868 4.924 0.197 0.413 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.994 0.294 0.776 4.204 0.244 0.395 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.996 0.238 -0.059 2.423 0.199 0.410 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.995 0.272 -0.027 2.967 0.265 0.356 13 635081 1922 1981 60 0.992 0.297 0.215 2.812 0.246 0.396 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.998 0.309 0.791 4.331 0.245 0.393 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.998 0.233 1.688 8.828 0.209 0.300 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.999 0.226 -0.006 2.298 0.211 0.279 17 635101 1929 1981 53 0.998 0.201 0.440 3.808 0.166 0.434 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.999 0.198 0.879 4.428 0.157 0.428 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.997 0.202 0.381 2.590 0.199 0.218 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.996 0.262 1.496 9.376 0.248 0.039 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.996 0.263 0.777 4.630 0.220 0.362 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.002 0.056 0.635 2.251 0.040 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 0.996 0.247 0.743 4.006 0.211 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.004 0.073 0.830 2.390 0.048 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.992 0.198 -0.059 2.298 0.157 0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.994 0.229 0.298 2.982 0.198 0.315 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 0.998 0.302 1.127 5.373 0.245 0.421 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.999 0.423 2.332 9.495 0.324 0.522 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.401 0.166 0.012 -0.194 2.351 -0.004 0.753 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.004 SERIES 635012 AND 635041 52 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.753 SERIES 635101 AND 635102 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.295 SDEV 0.218 SERR 0.033 EPS 0.881 NSS 17.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.984 0.161 0.350 3.087 0.156 0.204 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.344 0.178 -0.017 22 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.46 1.01 1.07 1.53 9.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.202 -0.011 -0.115 -0.151 -0.106 -0.078 0.056 -0.002 -0.034 -0.010 PACF 0.202 -0.054 -0.106 -0.112 -0.063 -0.067 0.057 -0.062 -0.057 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.207 0.216 0.216 0.218 0.223 0.225 0.226 0.227 0.227 0.227 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.045 0.204 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.187 -0.079 -0.064 -0.137 -0.079 -0.107 0.107 0.018 -0.117 -0.115 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.187 2 0.210 -0.118 3 0.206 -0.112 -0.027 4 0.203 -0.127 0.000 -0.134 5 0.198 -0.127 -0.004 -0.126 -0.036 6 0.193 -0.143 -0.005 -0.142 -0.012 -0.120 7 0.210 -0.141 0.015 -0.141 0.007 -0.147 0.140 8 0.222 -0.153 0.016 -0.153 0.009 -0.159 0.157 -0.083 9 0.213 -0.136 -0.001 -0.152 -0.008 -0.157 0.141 -0.059 -0.108 10 0.201 -0.143 0.015 -0.170 -0.009 -0.175 0.141 -0.075 -0.084 -0.114 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 611.19 609.87 610.56 612.49 612.81 614.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 615.33 615.50 616.85 617.77 618.55 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.187 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.51 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.64 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.187 0.035 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 635011 1 0.221 0.461 2 635012 1 0.178 0.422 3 635031 1 0.178 0.413 4 635032 1 0.076 0.239 5 635041 1 0.288 0.523 6 635042 1 0.123 0.329 7 635051 1 0.167 0.408 8 635052 1 0.186 0.431 9 635061 1 0.175 0.416 10 635062 1 0.161 0.395 11 635071 1 0.198 0.417 12 635072 1 0.133 0.361 13 635081 1 0.195 0.399 14 635082 1 0.211 0.394 15 635091 1 0.092 0.303 16 635092 1 0.130 0.284 17 635101 1 0.218 0.437 18 635102 1 0.206 0.437 19 635111 1 0.062 0.219 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 635112 1 0.002 0.039 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.160 0.366 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 0.108 MEDIAN 1 0.176 0.403 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.075 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 0.039 LOWER HINGE 1 0.127 0.316 UPPER HINGE 1 0.202 0.426 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.288 0.523 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.280 1.115 5.862 0.258 0.046 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.275 0.259 3.269 0.320 -0.025 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.216 0.381 3.729 0.246 0.038 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.236 0.453 3.486 0.248 0.033 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.276 0.486 4.321 0.321 -0.074 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.400 2.534 11.917 0.373 0.042 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.183 -0.040 3.157 0.198 0.005 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.209 0.610 5.277 0.212 0.008 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.228 0.373 4.184 0.241 0.023 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.270 0.582 4.081 0.281 0.028 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.216 -0.147 3.034 0.236 0.066 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.253 -0.229 3.422 0.300 0.022 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.273 0.142 2.814 0.302 -0.079 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.284 1.276 5.416 0.278 0.092 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.222 1.307 6.878 0.240 -0.003 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.217 -0.301 2.623 0.243 0.069 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.181 0.594 3.851 0.186 0.075 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.178 1.106 5.083 0.173 0.058 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.197 0.241 2.776 0.218 0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.262 1.477 9.396 0.253 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.243 0.611 4.729 0.256 0.022 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.051 0.690 2.357 0.050 0.044 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.232 0.469 3.966 0.247 0.028 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.061 0.919 2.133 0.063 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.178 -0.301 2.623 0.173 -0.079 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.213 0.192 3.213 0.227 0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.274 1.111 5.346 0.290 0.052 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.400 2.534 11.917 0.373 0.092 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.462 0.128 0.009 -0.108 2.332 0.182 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.182 SERIES 635041 AND 635071 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 635031 AND 635032 49 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.372 SDEV 0.191 SERR 0.028 EPS 0.912 NSS 17.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.991 0.163 0.032 3.580 0.189 -0.147 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.326 0.148 -0.007 19 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.39 1.01 1.13 1.52 2.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.146 -0.045 -0.062 -0.075 -0.048 -0.107 0.121 0.001 -0.039 0.024 PACF -0.146 -0.067 -0.081 -0.104 -0.089 -0.156 0.053 -0.010 -0.066 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.207 0.212 0.212 0.213 0.214 0.215 0.217 0.220 0.220 0.220 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.078 -0.082 -0.095 -0.077 -0.101 0.110 0.013 -0.038 0.012 PACF -0.009 -0.078 -0.084 -0.104 -0.096 -0.134 0.072 -0.030 -0.063 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.209 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.215 0.218 0.218 0.218 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.992 0.164 0.391 3.090 0.160 0.161 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.159 -0.068 -0.109 -0.129 -0.112 -0.100 0.087 0.020 -0.036 -0.003 PACF 0.159 -0.096 -0.085 -0.107 -0.094 -0.102 0.084 -0.056 -0.062 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.207 0.213 0.214 0.216 0.219 0.222 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.225 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.036 0.161 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES