RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR012X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 635 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-f) DENSITY_MAXIMUM CEBR - 635 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1370 3459-3241 1889 1981 - 635 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 635071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.045 0.039 -1.430 5.956 0.022 0.648 2 635012 1930 1981 52 0.985 0.048 -0.323 2.439 0.033 0.558 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.001 0.058 -0.621 2.447 0.047 0.497 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.047 0.031 -0.682 2.804 0.018 0.632 5 635041 1898 1981 84 0.960 0.040 -1.305 4.821 0.036 0.332 6 635042 1926 1981 56 0.803 0.085 -0.661 3.636 0.097 0.349 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.005 0.056 -0.560 2.804 0.037 0.653 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.026 0.043 -1.645 6.502 0.042 0.168 9 635061 1906 1981 76 0.993 0.038 -1.134 5.110 0.034 0.134 10 635062 1905 1981 77 0.959 0.059 -0.440 2.582 0.059 0.260 11 635071 1915 1981 67 0.927 0.079 -0.702 3.284 0.077 0.341 12 635072 1906 1981 76 0.904 0.079 -0.397 2.847 0.089 0.073 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.013 0.035 -0.340 3.650 0.030 0.404 14 635082 1915 1980 66 0.990 0.072 -0.483 2.214 0.043 0.709 15 635091 1931 1981 51 0.943 0.067 -1.353 4.757 0.052 0.531 16 635092 1926 1981 56 0.911 0.055 -0.437 3.365 0.058 0.220 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.012 0.035 -2.182 11.252 0.032 0.152 18 635102 1922 1981 60 0.983 0.065 -1.192 4.308 0.041 0.661 19 635111 1922 1981 60 0.970 0.063 -0.879 3.892 0.061 0.338 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 0.983 0.070 -1.415 4.605 0.045 0.627 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1889 TO 1981 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.973 0.056 -0.909 4.164 0.048 0.414 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.056 0.017 0.518 2.058 0.021 0.205 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 62 0.984 0.057 -0.692 3.643 0.042 0.377 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.058 0.029 0.867 1.985 0.024 0.390 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.803 0.031 -2.182 2.214 0.018 0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 0.951 0.039 -1.329 2.804 0.034 0.240 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.009 0.068 -0.462 4.789 0.058 0.630 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.047 0.085 -0.323 11.252 0.097 0.709 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.027 0.226 0.016 0.214 2.561 -0.463 0.599 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.463 SERIES 635031 AND 635051 70 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.599 SERIES 635082 AND 635112 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.023 SDEV 0.307 SERR 0.046 EPS 0.297 NSS 17.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 0.983 0.024 -1.236 6.688 0.021 0.233 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.236 -0.267 0.322 34 59 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.47 1.01 1.20 1.67 3.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.81 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 18. 49. 54. 73. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.231 0.069 -0.006 0.066 0.078 0.066 0.117 0.043 0.009 -0.131 PACF 0.231 0.016 -0.026 0.076 0.051 0.032 0.100 -0.009 -0.013 -0.143 95% C.L. 0.207 0.218 0.219 0.219 0.220 0.221 0.222 0.225 0.225 0.225 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.054 0.232 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00133431 0.99837166 2 635012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249722 0.91920817 3 635031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158394 0.94505590 4 635032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027347 1.03989792 5 635041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006763 0.96239817 6 635042 1 0.15028261 0.31689063 0.00000000 0.79619533 7 635051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091806 1.04830992 8 635052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011795 1.02965760 9 635061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040232 0.97753686 10 635062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107340 1.00134313 11 635071 1 0.13728297 0.07261817 0.00000000 0.90024191 12 635072 1 0.13313475 0.04219366 0.00000000 0.86520940 13 635081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060378 0.99508476 14 635082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008058 0.98760372 15 635091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00225792 0.88403922 16 635092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018182 0.90588963 17 635101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078536 0.99105948 18 635102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00248652 0.90766102 19 635111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002445 0.96958756 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00226818 1.04444849 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.027 -1.377 5.412 0.022 0.362 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.031 -0.786 4.034 0.032 -0.006 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.048 -0.950 4.418 0.046 0.269 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.029 -0.728 2.867 0.018 0.614 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.041 -1.237 4.618 0.036 0.326 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.103 -0.528 3.833 0.095 0.317 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.051 -0.505 3.276 0.036 0.559 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.042 -1.592 6.278 0.041 0.163 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.038 -1.121 4.969 0.034 0.086 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.056 -0.419 2.922 0.058 0.097 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.077 -0.756 3.776 0.077 0.200 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.080 -0.617 3.885 0.088 -0.128 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.033 -0.178 3.071 0.029 0.372 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.073 -0.488 2.250 0.042 0.699 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.062 -1.534 5.636 0.051 0.394 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.060 -0.534 3.528 0.057 0.217 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.032 -2.546 13.292 0.031 0.042 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.050 -0.937 5.298 0.040 0.369 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.065 -0.885 3.909 0.060 0.333 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.063 -0.767 3.604 0.044 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.053 -0.924 4.544 0.047 0.290 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.020 0.537 2.304 0.020 0.212 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.050 -0.777 3.897 0.042 0.322 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.028 0.648 1.732 0.024 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.027 -2.546 2.250 0.018 -0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.035 -1.179 3.402 0.033 0.130 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.064 -0.531 5.133 0.057 0.383 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.103 -0.178 13.292 0.095 0.699 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 635011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 635012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 635031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 635032 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 635041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 635042 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 635051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 635052 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 635061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 635062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 635071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 635072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 635081 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 635082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 635091 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 635092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 635101 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 635102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 635111 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 635112 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.021 -0.803 3.710 0.022 0.079 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.028 -0.929 4.231 0.032 -0.191 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.041 -1.435 5.601 0.046 -0.020 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.023 -0.613 3.331 0.018 0.450 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.038 -0.980 4.378 0.036 0.188 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.091 -0.796 4.024 0.094 0.131 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.043 -0.664 3.638 0.036 0.402 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.040 -1.704 6.610 0.041 0.066 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.036 -0.903 4.141 0.034 0.034 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.052 -0.379 3.035 0.058 -0.030 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.074 -0.703 3.702 0.077 0.137 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.078 -0.656 4.197 0.088 -0.171 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.027 -0.137 4.684 0.029 0.032 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.051 -0.382 3.303 0.043 0.345 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.055 -1.572 5.586 0.052 0.198 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.054 -0.661 3.408 0.057 0.069 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.030 -2.864 14.591 0.031 -0.134 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.043 -1.631 7.575 0.040 0.145 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.058 -1.116 4.793 0.060 0.183 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.051 -0.305 5.201 0.044 0.293 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.047 -0.962 4.987 0.047 0.110 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.019 0.630 2.541 0.020 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.043 -0.800 4.214 0.042 0.105 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.022 0.641 1.724 0.024 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.021 -2.864 3.035 0.018 -0.191 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.033 -1.275 3.670 0.033 0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.055 -0.635 5.394 0.057 0.193 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.091 -0.137 14.591 0.094 0.450 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.039 0.151 0.011 0.318 3.439 -0.382 0.541 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.382 SERIES 635042 AND 635061 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.541 SERIES 635051 AND 635052 68 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.077 SDEV 0.185 SERR 0.028 EPS 0.594 NSS 17.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 1.002 0.020 -0.568 3.943 0.020 0.035 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.104 -0.087 0.121 45 48 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.74 1.24 1.03 1.17 2.41 7.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.20 0.00 0.80 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.035 -0.008 -0.161 -0.209 -0.088 -0.039 0.056 0.009 0.117 -0.149 PACF 0.035 -0.009 -0.160 -0.204 -0.088 -0.073 -0.014 -0.069 0.068 -0.187 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.213 0.222 0.223 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.227 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.073 -0.026 -0.136 -0.282 -0.091 -0.113 -0.040 0.064 0.098 -0.107 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.073 2 0.075 -0.032 3 0.071 -0.022 -0.132 4 0.036 -0.027 -0.113 -0.270 5 0.016 -0.036 -0.115 -0.267 -0.074 6 0.004 -0.077 -0.133 -0.273 -0.072 -0.154 7 -0.015 -0.086 -0.167 -0.289 -0.082 -0.153 -0.126 8 -0.022 -0.095 -0.172 -0.306 -0.091 -0.158 -0.127 -0.057 9 -0.022 -0.094 -0.171 -0.305 -0.090 -0.158 -0.127 -0.057 0.003 10 -0.022 -0.108 -0.202 -0.344 -0.113 -0.233 -0.169 -0.080 -0.003 -0.246 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 154.56 156.06 157.97 158.33 153.31 154.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 154.57 155.07 156.77 158.77 154.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.036 -0.027 -0.113 -0.270 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.47 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.46 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.036 -0.026 -0.115 -0.277 -0.013 0.027 0.064 0.078 0.002 -.0166 -0.027 -0.022 0.001 0.008 0.010 0.006 -0.001 -0.004 -0.003 -.0014 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 635011 4 0.094 0.084 0.040 -0.119 0.013 2 635012 4 0.119 -0.149 0.285 0.019 -0.102 3 635031 4 0.121 0.032 -0.299 0.131 -0.187 4 635032 4 0.248 0.459 0.042 -0.062 -0.044 5 635041 4 0.070 0.168 0.107 0.019 -0.001 6 635042 4 0.098 0.103 0.190 -0.077 -0.229 7 635051 4 0.226 0.412 -0.071 -0.093 -0.149 8 635052 4 0.150 0.029 -0.083 -0.075 -0.359 9 635061 4 0.112 0.074 -0.110 0.101 -0.313 10 635062 4 0.060 -0.024 -0.222 0.045 -0.054 11 635071 4 0.077 0.122 0.208 -0.082 -0.064 12 635072 4 0.051 -0.166 -0.028 -0.115 0.066 13 635081 4 0.046 0.020 0.095 0.185 -0.037 14 635082 4 0.192 0.375 -0.093 0.014 -0.231 15 635091 4 0.075 0.237 -0.131 0.072 -0.055 16 635092 4 0.016 0.069 -0.058 -0.035 -0.070 17 635101 4 0.032 -0.130 0.039 0.025 -0.047 18 635102 4 0.109 0.119 0.257 -0.097 -0.190 19 635111 4 0.095 0.155 0.007 -0.094 -0.214 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 635112 4 0.194 0.295 -0.058 -0.143 -0.100 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.109 0.114 0.006 -0.019 -0.118 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 0.175 0.154 0.092 0.112 MEDIAN 4 0.096 0.094 -0.010 -0.048 -0.085 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.071 0.177 0.189 0.128 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.016 -0.166 -0.299 -0.143 -0.359 LOWER HINGE 4 0.065 0.025 -0.088 -0.094 -0.202 UPPER HINGE 4 0.136 0.202 0.101 0.035 -0.045 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.248 0.459 0.285 0.185 0.066 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 635011 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.021 -0.832 3.575 0.022 0.005 2 635012 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.026 -0.853 4.016 0.028 -0.009 3 635031 1912 1981 70 1.000 0.038 -1.392 6.434 0.042 -0.011 4 635032 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.021 -0.646 4.255 0.022 -0.010 5 635041 1898 1981 84 1.000 0.037 -0.900 4.009 0.039 -0.001 6 635042 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.087 -1.088 4.191 0.096 -0.002 7 635051 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.038 -0.834 4.313 0.042 -0.021 8 635052 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.037 -1.305 5.468 0.040 -0.029 9 635061 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.034 -0.925 4.112 0.033 -0.005 10 635062 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.051 -0.336 3.114 0.055 0.005 11 635071 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.072 -0.845 4.218 0.078 -0.008 12 635072 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.076 -0.585 4.119 0.081 -0.003 13 635081 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.026 -0.218 5.502 0.029 -0.007 14 635082 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.046 -0.341 3.048 0.050 0.000 15 635091 1931 1981 51 1.000 0.054 -1.220 5.029 0.056 0.007 16 635092 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.054 -0.730 3.401 0.059 0.004 17 635101 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.029 -2.777 14.742 0.029 0.006 18 635102 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.040 -1.521 6.825 0.042 -0.005 19 635111 1922 1981 60 1.000 0.055 -0.761 3.533 0.063 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 635112 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.047 -0.325 5.242 0.051 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.044 -0.922 4.957 0.048 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.018 0.567 2.520 0.020 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.039 -0.839 4.204 0.042 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.022 0.539 1.563 0.026 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.021 -2.777 3.048 0.022 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 54 1.000 0.031 -1.154 3.792 0.031 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.054 -0.615 5.355 0.057 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.087 -0.218 14.742 0.096 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.030 0.150 0.011 0.390 3.261 -0.356 0.466 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.356 SERIES 635032 AND 635112 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.466 SERIES 635051 AND 635052 68 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 45. RBAR 0.071 SDEV 0.191 SERR 0.028 EPS 0.574 NSS 17.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 1.002 0.020 -0.461 3.709 0.022 -0.152 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.033 -0.026 0.058 48 45 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.34 1.00 1.18 2.51 11.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.150 0.038 -0.082 -0.117 -0.036 -0.069 0.027 0.012 0.154 -0.154 PACF -0.150 0.016 -0.076 -0.145 -0.076 -0.093 -0.023 -0.015 0.131 -0.141 95% C.L. 0.207 0.212 0.212 0.214 0.216 0.217 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.222 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.017 -0.007 -0.007 -0.068 -0.091 -0.022 0.017 0.146 -0.146 PACF -0.013 -0.017 -0.008 -0.008 -0.068 -0.093 -0.028 0.012 0.145 -0.151 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.215 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.006 -0.013 -0.017 -0.007 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1981 93 1.002 0.020 -0.384 3.710 0.021 0.090 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.089 -0.025 -0.137 -0.279 -0.115 -0.030 0.052 0.104 0.135 -0.124 PACF 0.089 -0.033 -0.133 -0.263 -0.092 -0.056 -0.021 0.002 0.076 -0.172 95% C.L. 0.207 0.209 0.209 0.213 0.228 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.233 0.237 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES