RUN: FRAN002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN027P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN027P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 629 1 Col de Sorba, Mt.Renoso LATEWOOD_PERCENT PINI - 629 2 France Austrian pine, black pine 1400 4204-912 1518 1980 - 629 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 629021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 629051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 629052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 629061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 629062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 629072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 629081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 629082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 629091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1664 1665 / 1707 1707 / 1720 1720 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 629092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1651 1651 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 629111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 3 GAPS / 1575 1575 / 1730 1730 / 1945 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 629112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1575 1575 / 1733 1734 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 629131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 629132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 629142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1823 1823 / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 629162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1803 1804 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 4.396 0.865 0.393 3.861 0.162 0.457 2 629012 1834 1980 147 3.346 0.771 0.178 3.786 0.170 0.559 3 629021 1872 1980 109 4.186 0.988 0.220 3.730 0.195 0.458 4 629022 1868 1980 113 5.112 0.957 -0.024 3.628 0.154 0.442 5 629031 1854 1980 127 3.797 0.695 0.069 3.006 0.163 0.441 6 629032 1852 1980 129 3.640 0.787 0.300 3.282 0.173 0.495 7 629041 1857 1980 124 4.883 0.931 -0.025 3.203 0.131 0.665 8 629042 1853 1980 128 4.004 0.863 0.212 2.340 0.143 0.683 9 629051 1862 1980 119 4.750 0.846 0.365 3.793 0.186 0.081 10 629052 1853 1980 128 4.198 1.112 0.039 2.531 0.237 0.346 11 629061 1848 1980 133 3.739 0.831 -0.191 3.431 0.183 0.445 12 629062 1848 1980 133 3.577 0.857 -0.026 3.392 0.197 0.444 13 629071 1767 1980 214 3.704 0.736 0.625 3.833 0.183 0.320 14 629072 1788 1980 193 3.833 0.741 -0.128 2.960 0.179 0.377 15 629081 1830 1980 151 4.291 0.965 -0.332 3.307 0.163 0.648 16 629082 1841 1980 140 4.759 0.928 0.470 3.297 0.139 0.589 17 629091 1526 1836 311 3.471 0.849 0.083 3.043 0.222 0.387 18 629092 1541 1890 350 3.574 0.771 0.487 3.206 0.195 0.358 19 629111 1518 1980 463 3.494 0.829 0.350 3.037 0.222 0.340 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 4.383 0.909 0.056 3.177 0.182 0.397 21 629121 1689 1980 292 3.452 1.227 0.898 3.455 0.216 0.727 22 629122 1791 1980 190 4.430 1.199 0.008 2.147 0.198 0.606 23 629131 1634 1980 347 4.161 0.929 0.558 3.815 0.189 0.402 24 629132 1622 1980 359 4.237 1.073 0.379 2.934 0.191 0.574 25 629141 1700 1943 244 3.534 0.893 0.273 2.711 0.237 0.360 26 629142 1711 1943 233 4.090 0.955 0.479 2.980 0.205 0.419 27 629151 1771 1980 210 4.592 1.210 0.556 4.215 0.225 0.390 28 629152 1761 1980 220 4.619 1.079 0.179 2.822 0.212 0.375 29 629161 1722 1980 259 2.961 0.868 0.298 2.647 0.214 0.575 30 629162 1763 1980 218 3.232 1.072 0.136 2.595 0.226 0.667 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1518 TO 1980 463 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 4.015 0.924 0.229 3.205 0.190 0.467 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.541 0.143 0.268 0.498 0.029 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 4.047 0.901 0.216 3.204 0.190 0.443 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.821 0.157 0.354 0.694 0.044 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 107 2.961 0.695 -0.332 2.147 0.131 0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 3.574 0.831 0.039 2.934 0.170 0.377 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 4.396 0.988 0.393 3.628 0.214 0.575 MAXIMUM VALUE 458 5.112 1.227 0.898 4.215 0.237 0.727 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.197 0.178 0.009 -0.294 3.213 -0.429 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.429 SERIES 629041 AND 629132 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 629161 AND 629162 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.192 0.278 0.200 0.181 0.114 0.112 0.298 0.418 0.330 0.230 SDEV 0.369 0.269 0.263 0.150 0.233 0.210 0.172 0.133 0.157 0.214 SERR 0.213 0.110 0.107 0.061 0.060 0.054 0.038 0.022 0.023 0.024 EPS 0.485 0.607 0.539 0.557 0.441 0.475 0.793 0.881 0.861 0.820 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.285 0.297 0.259 0.234 0.250 0.255 SDEV 0.193 0.149 0.184 0.204 0.177 0.204 SERR 0.019 0.015 0.016 0.011 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.868 0.895 0.901 0.896 0.903 0.902 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 3.845 0.519 -0.213 3.012 0.125 0.332 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.148 0.103 0.508 78 385 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.41 1.01 1.06 1.48 36.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 192. 131. 109. 128. 259. 463. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.331 0.257 0.244 0.243 0.141 0.140 0.093 0.088 0.098 0.073 PACF 0.331 0.165 0.136 0.122 -0.013 0.030 -0.019 0.009 0.040 0.003 95% C.L. 0.093 0.103 0.108 0.113 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.163 0.238 0.112 0.106 0.121 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 629011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00699385 4.80474377 2 629012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00715695 2.81664443 3 629021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01777622 5.16334391 4 629022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00149178 5.02718067 5 629031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170071 3.90569568 6 629032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148999 3.73646212 7 629041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01564151 3.90538955 8 629042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00912293 4.59280396 9 629051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110031 4.82000828 10 629052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01345671 3.34112096 11 629061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00641365 3.31675553 12 629062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038867 3.61010695 13 629071 1 2.21484351 0.00262915 0.00000000 2.01199722 14 629072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00678140 4.48879194 15 629081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01348591 3.27629685 16 629082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00411509 5.05817747 17 629091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103639 3.30085278 18 629092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095633 3.40681791 19 629111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062343 3.35388446 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 629112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00273137 4.98359203 21 629121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00590157 2.58788586 22 629122 1 2.16838217 0.09553470 0.00000000 4.31662941 23 629131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166110 4.44920111 24 629132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205150 4.60431767 25 629141 1 1.25718796 0.00202440 0.00000000 2.54337931 26 629142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00338094 3.69079423 27 629151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00286532 4.89381504 28 629152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00730722 5.42626667 29 629161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00581085 3.71649098 30 629162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01284641 4.65450954 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.192 0.675 3.932 0.161 0.403 2 629012 1834 1980 147 0.999 0.214 0.367 3.714 0.169 0.479 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.196 0.164 4.523 0.191 0.267 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.186 -0.059 3.739 0.152 0.431 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.182 0.044 3.044 0.162 0.431 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.217 0.392 3.442 0.172 0.495 7 629041 1857 1980 124 0.999 0.151 -0.301 2.872 0.130 0.426 8 629042 1853 1980 128 0.999 0.188 -0.370 3.096 0.142 0.554 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.179 0.361 3.626 0.190 0.043 10 629052 1853 1980 128 0.999 0.235 -0.013 2.565 0.234 0.215 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.215 -0.039 3.668 0.181 0.453 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.239 -0.046 3.379 0.194 0.448 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.184 0.660 4.916 0.182 0.184 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.170 0.116 3.803 0.178 0.142 15 629081 1830 1980 151 0.999 0.187 -0.182 3.784 0.163 0.436 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.192 0.456 3.117 0.140 0.556 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.244 0.093 3.008 0.223 0.362 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.213 0.414 2.951 0.194 0.352 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.235 0.290 2.845 0.222 0.321 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.196 0.251 3.875 0.181 0.314 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.001 0.320 0.661 3.129 0.215 0.633 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.264 0.094 2.328 0.197 0.576 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.218 0.583 4.221 0.190 0.373 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.247 0.333 2.976 0.190 0.556 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.249 0.254 2.660 0.236 0.345 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.227 0.483 3.227 0.206 0.363 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.264 0.743 4.752 0.224 0.375 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.219 0.767 4.747 0.211 0.218 29 629161 1722 1980 259 0.999 0.251 0.309 2.999 0.213 0.390 30 629162 1763 1980 218 0.999 0.232 0.326 3.009 0.224 0.277 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.217 0.261 3.465 0.189 0.381 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.035 0.302 0.673 0.029 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.216 0.299 3.303 0.190 0.383 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.051 0.412 0.804 0.044 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.999 0.151 -0.370 2.328 0.130 0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.188 0.044 2.999 0.169 0.314 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.239 0.456 3.803 0.213 0.453 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.001 0.320 0.767 4.916 0.236 0.633 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 629011 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 629012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 629021 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 629022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 629031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 629032 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 629041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 629042 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 629051 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 629052 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 629061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 629062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 629071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 629072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 629081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 629082 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 629091 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 629092 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 629111 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 629112 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 629121 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 629122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 629131 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 629132 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 629141 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 629142 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 629151 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 629152 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 629161 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 629162 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 0.999 0.154 0.448 3.238 0.161 0.080 2 629012 1834 1980 147 0.999 0.163 -0.004 3.621 0.168 0.158 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.194 0.224 4.838 0.191 0.242 4 629022 1868 1980 113 0.998 0.156 -0.031 3.202 0.152 0.220 5 629031 1854 1980 127 0.999 0.151 -0.193 3.514 0.162 0.161 6 629032 1852 1980 129 0.998 0.185 0.066 2.983 0.171 0.343 7 629041 1857 1980 124 0.999 0.137 -0.192 3.058 0.130 0.287 8 629042 1853 1980 128 0.996 0.138 -0.057 2.781 0.142 0.204 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.174 0.343 3.481 0.189 -0.011 10 629052 1853 1980 128 0.999 0.208 -0.254 2.849 0.234 0.044 11 629061 1848 1980 133 0.997 0.183 -0.003 3.286 0.181 0.276 12 629062 1848 1980 133 0.995 0.194 0.115 4.333 0.193 0.118 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.179 0.529 4.315 0.182 0.162 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.167 0.107 3.688 0.178 0.106 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.182 -0.036 3.827 0.163 0.387 16 629082 1841 1980 140 0.999 0.165 0.151 2.805 0.139 0.408 17 629091 1526 1836 311 0.999 0.238 0.119 3.175 0.223 0.331 18 629092 1541 1890 350 0.999 0.209 0.424 3.052 0.194 0.326 19 629111 1518 1980 463 0.999 0.219 0.311 3.159 0.222 0.213 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.195 0.255 3.894 0.181 0.310 21 629121 1689 1980 292 0.995 0.286 0.493 2.993 0.215 0.546 22 629122 1791 1980 190 0.996 0.232 0.081 2.802 0.197 0.434 23 629131 1634 1980 347 0.999 0.210 0.492 3.808 0.190 0.321 24 629132 1622 1980 359 0.997 0.223 0.305 3.080 0.190 0.456 25 629141 1700 1943 244 0.999 0.244 0.189 2.625 0.236 0.313 26 629142 1711 1943 233 0.999 0.214 0.518 3.469 0.206 0.268 27 629151 1771 1980 210 0.998 0.249 0.602 4.140 0.224 0.301 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.218 0.771 4.898 0.211 0.208 29 629161 1722 1980 259 0.998 0.233 0.470 4.017 0.213 0.285 30 629162 1763 1980 218 0.999 0.224 0.301 3.233 0.224 0.221 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.998 0.197 0.218 3.472 0.189 0.257 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.001 0.036 0.258 0.600 0.029 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 0.999 0.195 0.207 3.262 0.190 0.272 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.001 0.056 0.452 0.775 0.045 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.995 0.137 -0.254 2.625 0.130 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.998 0.167 -0.003 3.052 0.168 0.162 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.999 0.223 0.448 3.827 0.213 0.326 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.286 0.771 4.898 0.236 0.546 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.194 0.116 0.006 0.050 3.303 -0.108 0.584 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.108 SERIES 629012 AND 629142 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.584 SERIES 629081 AND 629082 140 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.180 0.280 0.201 0.173 0.120 0.115 0.303 0.411 0.326 0.244 SDEV 0.339 0.279 0.267 0.146 0.227 0.205 0.160 0.133 0.154 0.200 SERR 0.196 0.114 0.109 0.060 0.059 0.053 0.035 0.022 0.023 0.023 EPS 0.466 0.608 0.540 0.543 0.456 0.482 0.797 0.878 0.859 0.831 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.285 0.288 0.266 0.243 0.257 0.214 SDEV 0.179 0.153 0.170 0.182 0.166 0.175 SERR 0.017 0.015 0.015 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.868 0.891 0.905 0.901 0.906 0.880 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.994 0.121 -0.103 2.738 0.123 0.199 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.002 0.001 0.168 98 365 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.62 1.01 1.06 1.69 80.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.199 0.063 0.068 0.105 -0.005 -0.009 -0.064 -0.068 -0.068 -0.092 PACF 0.199 0.025 0.053 0.084 -0.047 -0.009 -0.072 -0.052 -0.038 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.093 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.040 0.199 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.160 0.002 0.085 0.076 -0.051 -0.033 -0.087 -0.116 -0.006 -0.069 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.160 2 0.164 -0.025 3 0.167 -0.040 0.091 4 0.162 -0.038 0.083 0.049 5 0.166 -0.032 0.080 0.060 -0.071 6 0.164 -0.031 0.082 0.060 -0.068 -0.019 7 0.163 -0.037 0.088 0.068 -0.071 -0.003 -0.095 8 0.154 -0.038 0.081 0.074 -0.063 -0.006 -0.081 -0.087 9 0.157 -0.035 0.082 0.076 -0.066 -0.009 -0.080 -0.093 0.037 10 0.160 -0.041 0.076 0.075 -0.071 -0.004 -0.074 -0.095 0.047 -0.068 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3327.36 3317.29 3319.00 3317.14 3318.03 3317.67 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3319.51 3317.27 3315.77 3317.14 3317.02 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.160 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.57 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.64 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.160 0.026 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 629011 1 0.006 0.080 2 629012 1 0.027 0.165 3 629021 1 0.063 0.248 4 629022 1 0.060 0.226 5 629031 1 0.028 0.162 6 629032 1 0.136 0.347 7 629041 1 0.123 0.292 8 629042 1 0.097 0.205 9 629051 1 0.013 -0.011 10 629052 1 0.002 0.044 11 629061 1 0.083 0.279 12 629062 1 0.027 0.122 13 629071 1 0.033 0.169 14 629072 1 0.012 0.108 15 629081 1 0.164 0.391 16 629082 1 0.188 0.418 17 629091 1 0.133 0.335 18 629092 1 0.124 0.328 19 629111 1 0.065 0.214 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 629112 1 0.111 0.310 21 629121 1 0.312 0.550 22 629122 1 0.190 0.436 23 629131 1 0.114 0.323 24 629132 1 0.230 0.457 25 629141 1 0.108 0.313 26 629142 1 0.072 0.268 27 629151 1 0.120 0.305 28 629152 1 0.051 0.210 29 629161 1 0.085 0.286 30 629162 1 0.050 0.222 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.094 0.260 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.072 0.126 MEDIAN 1 0.084 0.273 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.090 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 -0.011 LOWER HINGE 1 0.033 0.169 UPPER HINGE 1 0.124 0.328 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.312 0.550 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.154 0.433 3.245 0.166 -0.001 2 629012 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.160 -0.042 3.389 0.179 -0.008 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.188 0.300 3.971 0.209 0.004 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.152 -0.004 3.161 0.168 -0.016 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.149 -0.191 3.443 0.173 -0.006 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.174 0.198 3.191 0.200 -0.046 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.131 -0.031 3.335 0.154 -0.059 8 629042 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.135 0.024 2.462 0.159 -0.048 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.174 0.345 3.476 0.189 -0.001 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.208 -0.255 2.853 0.239 0.000 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.175 0.121 3.207 0.203 -0.022 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.192 0.127 4.452 0.204 -0.009 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.177 0.602 4.552 0.195 -0.004 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.166 0.096 3.766 0.187 -0.001 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.167 -0.176 3.416 0.192 -0.041 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.149 -0.160 2.549 0.172 -0.045 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.224 -0.089 3.306 0.260 -0.045 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.197 0.337 3.035 0.224 -0.043 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.214 0.319 3.399 0.246 -0.030 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.185 0.302 4.105 0.209 -0.039 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.238 0.379 3.282 0.270 -0.062 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.209 0.103 2.812 0.238 0.006 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.199 0.580 4.563 0.222 -0.035 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.199 0.147 2.977 0.233 -0.075 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.231 0.093 2.616 0.272 -0.032 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.206 0.439 3.775 0.230 0.004 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.237 0.706 4.872 0.257 -0.051 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.213 0.564 4.557 0.237 -0.016 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.223 0.523 4.070 0.241 -0.016 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.218 0.244 3.281 0.249 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.188 0.201 3.504 0.213 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.030 0.260 0.641 0.034 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.190 0.172 3.362 0.209 -0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.047 0.383 0.810 0.052 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 109 1.000 0.131 -0.255 2.462 0.154 -0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.166 -0.004 3.161 0.187 -0.045 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.213 0.379 3.971 0.239 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.238 0.706 4.872 0.272 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.214 0.116 0.006 -0.085 3.185 -0.160 0.588 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.160 SERIES 629011 AND 629151 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.588 SERIES 629141 AND 629142 233 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.115 0.203 0.155 0.146 0.175 0.149 0.335 0.438 0.346 0.276 SDEV 0.434 0.365 0.338 0.192 0.158 0.162 0.152 0.109 0.118 0.166 SERR 0.250 0.149 0.138 0.078 0.041 0.042 0.033 0.018 0.018 0.019 EPS 0.339 0.504 0.462 0.492 0.565 0.558 0.820 0.890 0.869 0.853 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.304 0.319 0.290 0.254 0.270 0.246 SDEV 0.160 0.136 0.152 0.160 0.154 0.170 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.878 0.905 0.914 0.906 0.912 0.898 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.997 0.118 -0.061 2.977 0.140 -0.108 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.025 -0.014 0.173 102 361 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.56 20.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.108 -0.020 0.016 0.111 -0.049 -0.010 -0.040 -0.031 -0.039 -0.072 PACF -0.108 -0.032 0.010 0.115 -0.024 -0.014 -0.050 -0.054 -0.043 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.013 -0.108 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.031 0.026 0.110 -0.039 -0.021 -0.045 -0.040 -0.051 -0.075 PACF -0.004 -0.031 0.026 0.110 -0.037 -0.015 -0.054 -0.053 -0.046 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.997 0.119 -0.058 2.751 0.124 0.153 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.153 0.001 0.042 0.108 -0.026 -0.033 -0.057 -0.058 -0.071 -0.083 PACF 0.153 -0.023 0.046 0.097 -0.058 -0.019 -0.059 -0.052 -0.047 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.093 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 0.153 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES