RUN: FRAN002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN027X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN027X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 629 1 Col de Sorba, Mt.Renoso DENSITY_MAXIMUM PINI - 629 2 France Austrian pine, black pine 1400 4204-912 1518 1980 - 629 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 629021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 629051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 629052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 629061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 629062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 629072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 629081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 629082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 629091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1664 1665 / 1707 1707 / 1720 1720 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 629092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1651 1651 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 629111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 3 GAPS / 1575 1575 / 1730 1730 / 1945 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 629112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1575 1575 / 1733 1734 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 629131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 629132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 629142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1823 1823 / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 629162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1803 1804 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 0.939 0.098 0.330 2.249 0.072 0.615 2 629012 1834 1980 147 0.914 0.103 -0.812 3.177 0.088 0.516 3 629021 1872 1980 109 0.968 0.089 -0.849 4.150 0.071 0.543 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.023 0.071 -1.113 4.507 0.058 0.397 5 629031 1854 1980 127 0.980 0.056 -0.833 3.780 0.053 0.313 6 629032 1852 1980 129 0.965 0.064 -0.461 2.718 0.060 0.408 7 629041 1857 1980 124 0.971 0.065 -1.127 4.736 0.061 0.389 8 629042 1853 1980 128 0.940 0.076 -0.818 3.577 0.069 0.444 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.012 0.051 -0.705 3.391 0.051 0.195 10 629052 1853 1980 128 0.958 0.061 -0.557 3.301 0.053 0.355 11 629061 1848 1980 133 0.952 0.083 -0.608 2.951 0.079 0.354 12 629062 1848 1980 133 0.972 0.084 -1.223 4.994 0.065 0.526 13 629071 1767 1980 214 0.889 0.087 -0.424 3.172 0.097 0.247 14 629072 1788 1980 193 0.901 0.089 -0.140 2.943 0.089 0.426 15 629081 1830 1980 151 0.926 0.082 -1.461 6.623 0.077 0.384 16 629082 1841 1980 140 0.954 0.073 -0.612 3.212 0.072 0.343 17 629091 1526 1836 311 0.857 0.104 -0.877 3.943 0.101 0.456 18 629092 1541 1890 350 0.875 0.094 -0.444 2.928 0.095 0.369 19 629111 1518 1980 463 0.842 0.077 -0.307 3.173 0.090 0.234 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 0.878 0.088 -0.574 3.554 0.091 0.377 21 629121 1689 1980 292 0.846 0.083 -0.148 2.897 0.096 0.263 22 629122 1791 1980 190 0.862 0.073 -0.559 3.714 0.075 0.373 23 629131 1634 1980 347 0.983 0.090 -0.512 2.598 0.083 0.347 24 629132 1622 1980 359 0.994 0.093 -0.898 3.527 0.077 0.461 25 629141 1700 1943 244 0.981 0.089 -0.618 3.332 0.066 0.562 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.108 -1.539 6.005 0.068 0.638 27 629151 1771 1980 210 0.981 0.116 -1.543 5.545 0.067 0.729 28 629152 1761 1980 220 0.943 0.071 -0.148 3.050 0.067 0.355 29 629161 1722 1980 259 0.914 0.094 -0.647 3.305 0.089 0.353 30 629162 1763 1980 218 0.950 0.095 -0.735 3.741 0.099 0.253 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1518 TO 1980 463 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.939 0.084 -0.699 3.693 0.076 0.408 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.051 0.016 0.424 1.012 0.015 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 0.951 0.085 -0.632 3.361 0.074 0.381 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.080 0.021 0.416 0.893 0.023 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.842 0.051 -1.543 2.249 0.051 0.195 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.901 0.073 -0.877 3.050 0.066 0.347 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.980 0.094 -0.461 3.943 0.089 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 458 1.023 0.116 0.330 6.623 0.101 0.729 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.361 0.185 0.009 -0.627 3.921 -0.370 0.833 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.370 SERIES 629011 AND 629112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.833 SERIES 629161 AND 629162 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.055 0.253 0.231 0.288 0.416 0.430 0.370 0.434 0.482 0.496 SDEV 0.290 0.291 0.289 0.295 0.248 0.223 0.307 0.222 0.121 0.146 SERR 0.167 0.119 0.118 0.120 0.064 0.058 0.067 0.037 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.186 0.575 0.584 0.696 0.814 0.845 0.841 0.888 0.921 0.937 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.539 0.487 0.469 0.441 0.455 0.373 SDEV 0.133 0.140 0.130 0.164 0.165 0.183 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.951 0.951 0.958 0.957 0.959 0.941 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.923 0.058 -0.645 3.398 0.063 0.202 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.010 0.006 0.080 74 389 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.78 1.00 1.05 1.83 116.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 192. 131. 109. 128. 259. 463. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.201 0.166 0.161 0.161 0.099 0.084 0.024 0.089 0.086 0.050 PACF 0.201 0.131 0.111 0.101 0.025 0.019 -0.039 0.056 0.047 0.005 95% C.L. 0.093 0.097 0.099 0.101 0.103 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.079 0.149 0.101 0.095 0.102 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 629011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00174866 0.83701348 2 629012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026049 0.89426148 3 629021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160192 1.05488503 4 629022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00102111 1.08094656 5 629031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001213 0.98116988 6 629032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025045 0.94891471 7 629041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046319 0.99975610 8 629042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001130 0.94080710 9 629051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040628 1.03617692 10 629052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006063 0.96186757 11 629061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014274 0.94290560 12 629062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046561 0.94109976 13 629071 1 0.25824136 0.00367554 0.00000000 0.71037805 14 629072 1 0.23726609 0.00807718 0.00000000 0.78128821 15 629081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000582 0.92695880 16 629082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053917 0.99256480 17 629091 1 0.12998860 0.00811906 0.00000000 0.80963129 18 629092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036673 0.93982267 19 629111 1 0.11034214 0.01243791 0.00000000 0.82294738 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 629112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026526 0.93575519 21 629121 1 0.09614448 0.01990568 0.00000000 0.82949549 22 629122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035355 0.82844615 23 629131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000899 0.98090208 24 629132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033991 1.05461276 25 629141 1 0.25818458 0.00557710 0.00000000 0.83994895 26 629142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098287 1.11367142 27 629151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00114328 1.10175943 28 629152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001895 0.94486672 29 629161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041287 0.96730268 30 629162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079805 1.03817523 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.082 -0.023 2.290 0.072 0.377 2 629012 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.112 -0.781 2.993 0.087 0.513 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.077 -0.798 3.853 0.073 0.295 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.062 -0.809 4.046 0.058 0.222 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.057 -0.832 3.783 0.052 0.310 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.065 -0.480 2.565 0.060 0.387 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.065 -0.962 4.208 0.061 0.339 8 629042 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.081 -0.825 3.591 0.068 0.441 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.048 -0.507 3.099 0.052 0.105 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.063 -0.592 3.374 0.054 0.336 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.087 -0.585 2.880 0.080 0.347 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.084 -0.947 4.320 0.064 0.509 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.088 -0.416 3.560 0.096 0.051 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.080 -0.231 3.078 0.088 0.158 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.088 -1.472 6.685 0.077 0.374 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.073 -0.479 3.367 0.072 0.267 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.116 -0.943 3.965 0.099 0.416 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.099 -0.324 2.954 0.095 0.262 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.086 -0.476 3.181 0.091 0.156 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.093 -0.477 3.274 0.091 0.280 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.094 -0.242 3.009 0.096 0.201 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.081 -0.501 3.695 0.075 0.321 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.092 -0.500 2.569 0.083 0.362 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.088 -0.661 3.336 0.077 0.381 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.072 -1.070 4.789 0.066 0.307 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.091 -1.318 6.624 0.069 0.536 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.100 -1.110 5.140 0.067 0.605 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.075 -0.147 3.041 0.067 0.352 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.097 -0.876 4.024 0.089 0.275 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.086 -0.777 3.777 0.099 -0.035 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.083 -0.672 3.702 0.076 0.315 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.015 0.338 1.025 0.015 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.085 -0.627 3.467 0.074 0.329 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.019 0.399 0.984 0.023 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 109 1.000 0.048 -1.472 2.290 0.052 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.073 -0.876 3.041 0.066 0.262 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.092 -0.477 4.024 0.089 0.381 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.116 -0.023 6.685 0.099 0.605 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 629011 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 629012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 629021 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 629022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 629031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 629032 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 629041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 629042 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 629051 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 629052 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 629061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 629062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 629071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 629072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 629081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 629082 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 629091 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 629092 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 629111 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 629112 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 629121 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 629122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 629131 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 629132 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 629141 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 629142 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 629151 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 629152 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 629161 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 629162 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.074 -0.128 2.537 0.072 0.241 2 629012 1834 1980 147 0.999 0.087 -0.446 3.094 0.087 0.191 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.072 -0.667 3.507 0.073 0.179 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.058 -0.994 4.696 0.058 0.134 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.054 -0.813 3.881 0.052 0.241 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.057 -0.658 2.937 0.060 0.200 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.063 -0.628 3.506 0.061 0.283 8 629042 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.070 -0.541 2.870 0.068 0.282 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.045 -0.567 3.163 0.052 -0.010 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.058 -0.591 3.195 0.054 0.238 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.074 -0.543 2.704 0.080 0.108 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.069 -0.471 3.270 0.065 0.294 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.087 -0.446 3.609 0.097 0.020 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.079 -0.291 3.102 0.088 0.124 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.081 -1.283 5.643 0.077 0.244 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.070 -0.326 3.334 0.072 0.200 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.112 -0.933 3.952 0.099 0.367 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.097 -0.359 3.139 0.095 0.223 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.085 -0.506 3.290 0.091 0.127 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.090 -0.538 3.302 0.091 0.217 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.092 -0.157 3.093 0.096 0.171 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.076 -0.270 3.887 0.075 0.196 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.089 -0.533 2.829 0.083 0.324 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.077 -0.677 3.579 0.077 0.202 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.072 -1.075 4.798 0.066 0.292 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.083 -1.415 7.346 0.069 0.420 27 629151 1771 1980 210 0.999 0.078 -1.091 4.898 0.067 0.355 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.068 -0.296 3.004 0.067 0.231 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.087 -0.829 3.767 0.089 0.106 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.085 -0.750 3.716 0.099 -0.055 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.076 -0.627 3.655 0.076 0.205 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.014 0.317 0.988 0.015 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.077 -0.555 3.318 0.074 0.210 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.017 0.367 0.787 0.023 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.999 0.045 -1.415 2.537 0.052 -0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.069 -0.813 3.094 0.066 0.134 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.087 -0.446 3.881 0.089 0.282 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.112 -0.128 7.346 0.099 0.420 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.385 0.142 0.007 -0.593 3.095 -0.061 0.751 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.061 SERIES 629062 AND 629092 43 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.751 SERIES 629161 AND 629162 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.042 0.260 0.257 0.278 0.436 0.431 0.366 0.439 0.480 0.485 SDEV 0.282 0.290 0.290 0.288 0.223 0.225 0.306 0.199 0.122 0.140 SERR 0.163 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.058 0.058 0.067 0.033 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.148 0.585 0.618 0.686 0.826 0.845 0.839 0.890 0.921 0.935 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.554 0.485 0.473 0.456 0.473 0.388 SDEV 0.116 0.137 0.121 0.147 0.155 0.159 SERR 0.011 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.953 0.950 0.959 0.960 0.962 0.945 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 1.002 0.058 -0.673 3.555 0.062 0.082 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.154 -0.075 0.134 135 328 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.89 1.01 1.09 1.98 34.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.082 0.065 0.058 0.048 -0.034 -0.044 -0.085 -0.017 -0.006 -0.047 PACF 0.082 0.058 0.049 0.036 -0.048 -0.046 -0.080 0.003 0.013 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 0.082 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.069 0.078 0.058 0.117 -0.036 -0.021 -0.042 -0.091 0.010 -0.098 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.069 2 0.064 0.073 3 0.060 0.070 0.049 4 0.055 0.063 0.042 0.106 5 0.061 0.065 0.046 0.109 -0.058 6 0.059 0.069 0.048 0.111 -0.055 -0.035 7 0.058 0.067 0.052 0.113 -0.052 -0.032 -0.044 8 0.053 0.064 0.048 0.124 -0.048 -0.026 -0.039 -0.092 9 0.057 0.065 0.049 0.126 -0.053 -0.028 -0.042 -0.095 0.040 10 0.061 0.057 0.045 0.124 -0.057 -0.018 -0.038 -0.089 0.045 -0.082 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2684.11 2683.91 2683.42 2684.32 2681.09 2681.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2682.99 2684.07 2682.10 2683.34 2682.19 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.064 0.073 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.01 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.02 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.064 0.077 0.010 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 629011 2 0.163 0.161 0.331 2 629012 2 0.109 0.188 0.032 3 629021 2 0.047 0.179 0.002 4 629022 2 0.023 0.136 -0.013 5 629031 2 0.082 0.205 0.156 6 629032 2 0.082 0.163 0.185 7 629041 2 0.087 0.271 0.055 8 629042 2 0.102 0.255 0.123 9 629051 2 0.007 -0.009 0.023 10 629052 2 0.090 0.219 0.109 11 629061 2 0.059 0.084 0.220 12 629062 2 0.135 0.233 0.217 13 629071 2 0.041 0.017 0.170 14 629072 2 0.045 0.111 0.114 15 629081 2 0.100 0.198 0.193 16 629082 2 0.051 0.210 -0.052 17 629091 2 0.192 0.291 0.215 18 629092 2 0.104 0.182 0.185 19 629111 2 0.030 0.121 0.046 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 629112 2 0.090 0.179 0.177 21 629121 2 0.042 0.156 0.089 22 629122 2 0.043 0.205 -0.036 23 629131 2 0.113 0.300 0.075 24 629132 2 0.048 0.189 0.071 25 629141 2 0.129 0.245 0.163 26 629142 2 0.222 0.392 0.070 27 629151 2 0.130 0.369 -0.035 28 629152 2 0.060 0.224 0.047 29 629161 2 0.022 0.098 0.092 30 629162 2 0.004 -0.055 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.082 0.184 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.053 0.098 0.093 MEDIAN 2 0.082 0.188 0.090 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.066 0.097 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.004 -0.055 -0.052 LOWER HINGE 2 0.043 0.136 0.032 UPPER HINGE 2 0.109 0.233 0.177 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.222 0.392 0.331 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.068 -0.092 2.498 0.077 0.009 2 629012 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.085 -0.457 3.065 0.096 -0.008 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.071 -0.612 3.526 0.079 0.000 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.058 -1.020 5.035 0.062 0.001 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.052 -0.583 3.282 0.057 -0.004 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.055 -0.653 3.055 0.064 -0.018 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.060 -0.467 3.407 0.070 -0.006 8 629042 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.067 -0.424 2.960 0.077 -0.016 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.045 -0.563 3.165 0.052 -0.002 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.056 -0.433 3.240 0.060 -0.019 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.071 -0.411 2.559 0.082 -0.003 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.065 -0.236 2.950 0.072 -0.017 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.085 -0.398 3.430 0.097 -0.017 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.078 -0.325 3.022 0.094 -0.015 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.077 -1.129 5.159 0.084 0.013 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.068 -0.265 3.226 0.077 0.005 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.101 -0.620 3.229 0.114 -0.025 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.093 -0.370 3.217 0.105 -0.027 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.084 -0.499 3.203 0.096 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.086 -0.533 3.124 0.099 -0.020 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.090 -0.137 2.989 0.103 0.006 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.074 -0.287 3.684 0.082 -0.002 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.084 -0.669 3.373 0.095 -0.005 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.076 -0.671 3.772 0.084 -0.003 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.068 -1.074 4.817 0.075 -0.024 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.075 -0.983 5.298 0.081 -0.014 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.073 -1.083 5.394 0.078 0.002 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.066 -0.416 3.088 0.074 -0.005 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.087 -0.819 3.748 0.092 0.005 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.085 -0.772 3.797 0.096 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.073 -0.567 3.544 0.083 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.013 0.281 0.790 0.015 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.074 -0.516 3.234 0.082 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.019 0.274 0.683 0.022 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 109 1.000 0.045 -1.129 2.498 0.052 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.066 -0.671 3.065 0.074 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.085 -0.398 3.748 0.096 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.101 -0.092 5.394 0.114 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.412 0.130 0.006 -0.450 2.943 0.020 0.756 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.020 SERIES 629031 AND 629092 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.756 SERIES 629161 AND 629162 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.016 0.216 0.206 0.248 0.492 0.498 0.406 0.480 0.490 0.513 SDEV 0.377 0.354 0.394 0.357 0.182 0.186 0.266 0.158 0.107 0.133 SERR 0.218 0.144 0.161 0.146 0.047 0.048 0.058 0.026 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.062 0.525 0.548 0.652 0.856 0.877 0.861 0.905 0.924 0.941 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.583 0.513 0.459 0.461 0.504 0.429 SDEV 0.105 0.117 0.120 0.141 0.144 0.146 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.958 0.955 0.957 0.960 0.966 0.953 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 1.002 0.057 -0.719 3.747 0.068 -0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.171 -0.086 0.141 150 313 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.98 1.00 1.09 2.07 31.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.109 -0.078 0.040 0.041 -0.017 -0.039 -0.087 -0.007 0.016 -0.039 PACF -0.109 -0.091 0.021 0.042 -0.002 -0.036 -0.103 -0.037 -0.001 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.093 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 -0.119 -0.091 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.006 0.025 0.035 -0.021 -0.051 -0.097 -0.024 0.001 -0.044 PACF 0.002 0.006 0.025 0.035 -0.022 -0.052 -0.099 -0.024 0.007 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 1.002 0.057 -0.710 3.745 0.062 0.074 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.073 0.088 0.035 0.037 -0.027 -0.058 -0.104 -0.038 -0.014 -0.053 PACF 0.073 0.083 0.023 0.026 -0.037 -0.061 -0.095 -0.016 0.011 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.013 0.067 0.083 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.56 MINUTES