RUN: GREE001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GREE005W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GREE005W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 652 1 Olympos Oros WIDTH_RING PILE - 652 2 Greece Bosnian pine, greybark pine, pino loricato 2250 4005-2225 158 652 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 652031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1766 1766 / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 652062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 652101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1832 1832 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 652141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 652142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.339 0.764 0.756 2.591 0.195 0.887 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.565 0.637 1.132 3.938 0.230 0.713 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.116 0.658 1.032 3.776 0.225 0.832 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.058 0.587 1.153 3.879 0.238 0.800 5 652031 1583 1981 399 0.864 0.572 1.710 7.086 0.255 0.866 6 652032 1595 1981 387 0.831 0.507 0.893 2.975 0.228 0.889 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.326 0.345 0.211 2.699 0.180 0.662 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.137 0.326 1.053 5.461 0.177 0.662 9 652051 1883 1981 99 2.047 0.571 -0.218 2.579 0.154 0.749 10 652052 1859 1981 123 2.018 0.564 0.006 3.159 0.239 0.438 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.062 0.672 1.065 3.601 0.217 0.890 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.203 0.664 1.604 5.695 0.216 0.860 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.411 0.500 1.086 4.045 0.230 0.661 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.433 0.623 0.935 3.415 0.220 0.804 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.894 0.615 1.406 6.814 0.192 0.650 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.832 0.856 0.902 2.757 0.210 0.820 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.500 0.363 -0.066 2.861 0.159 0.628 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.295 0.294 0.750 3.416 0.152 0.609 19 652101 1807 1981 175 0.889 0.336 1.652 6.598 0.211 0.721 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.126 0.398 1.244 5.851 0.188 0.762 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.934 0.364 1.035 4.423 0.152 0.310 22 652112 1942 1981 40 2.059 0.348 0.240 2.626 0.150 0.305 23 652121 1941 1981 41 2.171 0.511 -0.545 2.920 0.157 0.713 24 652122 1937 1981 45 2.271 0.512 -0.077 2.012 0.164 0.629 25 652131 1928 1981 54 2.191 0.576 -0.140 3.250 0.203 0.617 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.913 0.530 0.327 3.935 0.179 0.686 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.569 0.701 1.045 4.296 0.215 0.837 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.332 0.510 0.921 3.937 0.210 0.754 29 652151 1594 1981 388 0.840 0.342 1.251 5.689 0.225 0.748 30 652152 1609 1981 373 0.906 0.355 0.574 3.360 0.247 0.705 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1583 TO 1981 399 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.471 0.520 0.765 3.988 0.201 0.707 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.457 0.147 0.599 1.376 0.032 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.375 0.521 0.928 3.689 0.210 0.717 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.797 0.260 0.892 1.502 0.048 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 36 0.831 0.294 -0.545 2.012 0.150 0.305 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.116 0.363 0.240 2.920 0.177 0.650 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.913 0.623 1.132 4.423 0.225 0.820 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 2.271 0.856 1.710 7.086 0.255 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.353 0.272 0.013 -0.510 2.843 -0.541 0.849 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.541 SERIES 652071 AND 652121 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.849 SERIES 652021 AND 652061 289 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.408 0.564 0.329 0.423 0.303 0.364 0.448 0.483 0.408 0.441 SDEV 0.267 0.192 0.251 0.175 0.226 0.210 0.230 0.167 0.249 0.267 SERR 0.109 0.078 0.079 0.038 0.038 0.028 0.024 0.014 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.750 0.870 0.776 0.870 0.825 0.889 0.935 0.949 0.936 0.947 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.454 0.327 0.387 SDEV 0.211 0.216 0.181 SERR 0.013 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.952 0.923 0.945 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 1.241 0.327 0.402 3.022 0.166 0.667 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.532 0.369 0.057 117 282 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.57 1.00 1.11 1.69 4.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 166. 37. 123. 289. 399. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.665 0.562 0.467 0.440 0.398 0.302 0.227 0.215 0.210 0.222 PACF 0.665 0.214 0.058 0.112 0.048 -0.089 -0.057 0.055 0.046 0.073 95% C.L. 0.100 0.137 0.159 0.172 0.183 0.191 0.196 0.199 0.201 0.203 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.470 0.523 0.214 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 1 2.65769958 0.01033994 0.00000000 0.35352162 2 652012 1 1.70755100 0.01697168 0.00000000 1.10572398 3 652021 1 2.16860819 0.00753434 0.00000000 0.23652187 4 652022 1 1.93106258 0.00464010 0.00000000 0.08024649 5 652031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00310651 1.48511970 6 652032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00366341 1.54137349 7 652041 1 0.63227004 0.00919923 0.00000000 1.08642983 8 652042 1 0.80809963 0.00709285 0.00000000 0.80675697 9 652051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00434372 1.83028865 10 652052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00498278 1.70887244 11 652061 1 2.28068304 0.00716111 0.00000000 0.11650261 12 652062 1 1.86755645 0.01035655 0.00000000 0.60227311 13 652071 1 1.36103702 0.02518315 0.00000000 1.17168176 14 652072 1 1.86237109 0.01213330 0.00000000 0.83970594 15 652081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00215985 1.69870019 16 652082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01149662 2.92945361 17 652091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079802 1.44876230 18 652092 1 0.77716821 0.00466579 0.00000000 0.76406550 19 652101 1 1.50778449 0.07933424 0.00000000 0.78469676 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 1 1.01723814 0.03333502 0.00000000 0.98514891 21 652111 1 0.73438454 0.09147137 0.00000000 1.73386431 22 652112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087148 2.07661533 23 652121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02495993 1.64657319 24 652122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02734387 1.64197981 25 652131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00464494 2.06337523 26 652132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01708138 1.44341016 27 652141 1 2.39019060 0.03593950 0.00000000 1.25311685 28 652142 1 1.69289184 0.04173632 0.00000000 1.14492035 29 652151 1 0.66429353 0.00774378 0.00000000 0.63085371 30 652152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107989 1.10759616 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.001 0.286 -0.383 3.475 0.195 0.632 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.273 0.074 3.359 0.229 0.476 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.005 0.348 0.256 3.030 0.224 0.686 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.004 0.352 0.519 3.037 0.237 0.624 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.002 0.451 1.636 7.472 0.255 0.722 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.059 0.482 2.190 9.781 0.228 0.763 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.241 0.636 4.018 0.180 0.569 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.220 0.382 3.145 0.177 0.480 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.278 -0.006 2.636 0.153 0.742 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.999 0.266 -0.045 2.918 0.237 0.395 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.007 0.359 0.138 2.738 0.217 0.712 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.346 1.159 5.308 0.214 0.684 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.275 0.845 3.796 0.229 0.464 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.280 0.281 2.739 0.220 0.548 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.318 1.295 5.960 0.191 0.639 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.016 0.325 0.758 3.552 0.210 0.657 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.241 -0.070 2.885 0.158 0.617 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.199 0.252 3.156 0.151 0.515 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.252 0.288 3.026 0.210 0.446 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.286 0.543 3.308 0.187 0.676 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.160 0.546 3.455 0.147 0.183 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.169 0.256 2.688 0.146 0.302 23 652121 1941 1981 41 0.999 0.198 -0.364 2.988 0.154 0.545 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.167 0.327 3.655 0.161 0.251 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.264 -0.047 3.022 0.200 0.605 26 652132 1928 1981 54 0.999 0.245 0.526 3.271 0.175 0.648 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.320 0.411 3.426 0.212 0.680 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.300 0.425 3.626 0.210 0.614 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.327 0.347 3.296 0.224 0.649 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.358 0.218 2.992 0.246 0.669 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.003 0.286 0.446 3.725 0.199 0.573 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.011 0.075 0.550 1.537 0.032 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.279 0.337 3.283 0.210 0.620 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.001 0.086 0.408 0.634 0.049 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.999 0.160 -0.383 2.636 0.146 0.183 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.241 0.138 2.992 0.175 0.480 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.327 0.546 3.626 0.224 0.676 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.059 0.482 2.190 9.781 0.255 0.763 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 652012 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 652021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 652022 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 652031 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 652032 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 652041 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 652042 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 652051 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 652052 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 652061 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 652062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 652071 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 652072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 652081 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 652082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 652091 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 652092 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 652101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 652111 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 652112 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 652121 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 652122 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 652131 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 652132 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 652141 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 652142 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 652151 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 652152 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 0.996 0.271 -0.464 3.561 0.195 0.593 2 652012 1771 1981 211 0.999 0.269 0.176 3.611 0.229 0.450 3 652021 1693 1981 289 0.995 0.313 0.207 3.090 0.224 0.636 4 652022 1647 1981 335 0.994 0.314 0.508 3.497 0.237 0.547 5 652031 1583 1981 399 0.988 0.366 1.319 6.675 0.255 0.619 6 652032 1595 1981 387 0.994 0.314 0.501 3.075 0.227 0.599 7 652041 1723 1981 259 0.996 0.191 0.178 2.987 0.180 0.335 8 652042 1678 1981 304 0.997 0.195 0.446 3.864 0.177 0.333 9 652051 1883 1981 99 0.992 0.205 0.023 2.482 0.151 0.582 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.997 0.240 -0.072 3.161 0.237 0.299 11 652061 1687 1981 295 0.993 0.321 -0.009 2.676 0.217 0.653 12 652062 1698 1981 284 0.999 0.341 1.174 5.435 0.214 0.674 13 652071 1760 1981 222 0.999 0.269 0.738 3.502 0.229 0.446 14 652072 1738 1981 244 0.997 0.253 0.358 3.334 0.220 0.435 15 652081 1802 1981 180 0.996 0.286 1.160 5.675 0.190 0.579 16 652082 1792 1981 190 0.996 0.254 0.106 2.901 0.209 0.496 17 652091 1854 1981 128 0.998 0.234 -0.018 3.051 0.158 0.595 18 652092 1808 1981 174 0.998 0.180 -0.039 3.306 0.151 0.429 19 652101 1807 1981 175 0.999 0.225 0.251 3.446 0.210 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 0.998 0.248 0.279 3.105 0.187 0.575 21 652111 1945 1981 37 0.999 0.141 0.580 3.741 0.146 -0.023 22 652112 1942 1981 40 0.998 0.145 0.099 3.094 0.146 0.093 23 652121 1941 1981 41 0.997 0.167 -0.111 4.043 0.153 0.400 24 652122 1937 1981 45 0.999 0.161 0.344 3.991 0.160 0.211 25 652131 1928 1981 54 0.997 0.213 0.122 3.035 0.194 0.370 26 652132 1928 1981 54 0.994 0.201 0.471 3.794 0.175 0.491 27 652141 1777 1981 205 0.999 0.313 0.571 4.043 0.212 0.665 28 652142 1765 1981 217 0.998 0.277 0.514 4.252 0.210 0.568 29 652151 1594 1981 388 0.999 0.321 0.303 3.262 0.224 0.642 30 652152 1609 1981 373 0.997 0.348 0.241 3.114 0.246 0.648 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.997 0.253 0.332 3.627 0.199 0.475 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.003 0.063 0.393 0.902 0.033 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.997 0.253 0.265 3.390 0.210 0.522 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.003 0.112 0.409 0.774 0.049 0.228 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.988 0.141 -0.464 2.482 0.146 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.996 0.201 0.099 3.090 0.175 0.370 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 0.999 0.313 0.508 3.864 0.224 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 0.999 0.366 1.319 6.675 0.255 0.674 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.300 0.184 0.009 -0.365 2.697 -0.196 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.196 SERIES 652121 AND 652151 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 652121 AND 652122 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.412 0.545 0.351 0.440 0.311 0.368 0.359 0.361 0.363 0.443 SDEV 0.252 0.204 0.240 0.181 0.223 0.233 0.202 0.195 0.235 0.250 SERR 0.103 0.083 0.076 0.039 0.037 0.031 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.753 0.861 0.793 0.878 0.831 0.891 0.908 0.919 0.924 0.947 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.476 0.354 0.412 SDEV 0.186 0.201 0.164 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.955 0.931 0.950 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.982 0.204 0.195 3.175 0.171 0.472 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.229 0.106 0.107 116 283 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.57 1.00 1.10 1.67 9.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.471 0.344 0.224 0.177 0.072 -0.079 -0.192 -0.213 -0.254 -0.220 PACF 0.471 0.156 0.019 0.038 -0.064 -0.169 -0.159 -0.062 -0.089 0.004 95% C.L. 0.100 0.120 0.130 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.139 0.143 0.147 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.242 0.398 0.156 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.375 0.317 0.224 0.175 0.109 -0.086 -0.165 -0.146 -0.275 -0.187 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.375 2 0.298 0.205 3 0.285 0.186 0.064 4 0.283 0.180 0.054 0.034 5 0.283 0.180 0.056 0.038 -0.012 6 0.281 0.188 0.068 0.075 0.046 -0.206 7 0.247 0.196 0.080 0.086 0.076 -0.160 -0.162 8 0.244 0.192 0.081 0.088 0.078 -0.156 -0.156 -0.023 9 0.240 0.165 0.055 0.101 0.093 -0.142 -0.123 0.019 -0.172 10 0.245 0.164 0.058 0.105 0.091 -0.145 -0.125 0.014 -0.179 0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3269.13 3210.72 3195.60 3195.97 3197.51 3199.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3184.18 3175.58 3177.37 3167.35 3169.00 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.298 0.205 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.66 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.298 0.294 0.149 0.105 0.062 0.040 0.024 0.015 0.010 0.0060 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 652011 2 0.436 0.390 0.345 2 652012 2 0.262 0.333 0.261 3 652021 2 0.422 0.564 0.122 4 652022 2 0.315 0.511 0.077 5 652031 2 0.415 0.497 0.203 6 652032 2 0.395 0.467 0.225 7 652041 2 0.168 0.261 0.225 8 652042 2 0.127 0.306 0.102 9 652051 2 0.352 0.512 0.122 10 652052 2 0.094 0.281 0.064 11 652061 2 0.450 0.538 0.181 12 652062 2 0.489 0.511 0.244 13 652071 2 0.256 0.329 0.264 14 652072 2 0.240 0.333 0.235 15 652081 2 0.352 0.501 0.136 16 652082 2 0.291 0.390 0.222 17 652091 2 0.389 0.461 0.226 18 652092 2 0.222 0.371 0.137 19 652101 2 0.110 0.294 0.074 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 652102 2 0.376 0.428 0.257 21 652111 2 0.022 -0.027 -0.134 22 652112 2 0.013 0.089 0.067 23 652121 2 0.203 0.464 -0.158 24 652122 2 0.069 0.243 -0.146 25 652131 2 0.320 0.529 -0.421 26 652132 2 0.263 0.565 -0.146 27 652141 2 0.457 0.566 0.151 28 652142 2 0.345 0.478 0.164 29 652151 2 0.433 0.567 0.126 30 652152 2 0.446 0.519 0.202 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.291 0.409 0.114 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.139 0.144 0.165 MEDIAN 2 0.318 0.462 0.144 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.212 0.183 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.013 -0.027 -0.421 LOWER HINGE 2 0.203 0.329 0.074 UPPER HINGE 2 0.415 0.512 0.225 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.489 0.567 0.345 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.204 -0.106 3.454 0.236 -0.034 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.232 -0.322 3.708 0.267 -0.022 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.238 0.004 3.491 0.268 -0.004 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.260 0.169 3.687 0.284 -0.009 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.000 0.280 0.737 5.522 0.308 0.011 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.000 0.244 0.200 3.748 0.274 -0.005 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.175 -0.045 2.956 0.204 -0.023 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.182 0.166 3.283 0.206 -0.011 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.165 -0.223 3.383 0.184 -0.009 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.228 -0.234 3.119 0.264 0.000 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.238 -0.232 3.928 0.280 -0.005 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.244 0.460 3.996 0.272 -0.002 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.232 0.072 2.913 0.262 0.000 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.221 -0.113 3.287 0.256 0.019 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.231 1.287 9.691 0.232 -0.010 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.214 -0.206 3.681 0.245 -0.017 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.183 0.197 4.772 0.197 -0.012 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.161 -0.125 3.626 0.179 -0.022 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.213 0.040 3.375 0.244 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.195 0.197 3.024 0.223 -0.002 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.140 0.542 3.696 0.142 0.009 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.144 0.034 3.228 0.152 0.002 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.151 0.050 3.108 0.187 -0.022 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.156 0.377 4.240 0.181 -0.010 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.177 0.047 2.552 0.215 -0.063 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.173 0.723 3.987 0.185 0.017 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.231 0.321 4.158 0.262 -0.002 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.225 0.317 3.460 0.252 0.000 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.241 0.046 3.204 0.279 0.001 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.259 0.137 3.144 0.296 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.208 0.151 3.781 0.235 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.038 0.345 1.260 0.044 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.217 0.061 3.475 0.244 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.062 0.423 0.724 0.071 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.140 -0.322 2.552 0.142 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.175 -0.106 3.204 0.197 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.238 0.317 3.928 0.268 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.000 0.280 1.287 9.691 0.308 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.370 0.186 0.009 -0.666 2.611 -0.190 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.190 SERIES 652061 AND 652121 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 652121 AND 652122 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.510 0.585 0.424 0.468 0.453 0.466 0.492 0.480 0.481 0.565 SDEV 0.157 0.109 0.149 0.114 0.129 0.135 0.102 0.112 0.128 0.126 SERR 0.064 0.045 0.047 0.025 0.021 0.018 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.819 0.879 0.839 0.889 0.900 0.925 0.945 0.949 0.952 0.967 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.542 0.425 0.499 SDEV 0.119 0.138 0.109 SERR 0.007 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.965 0.948 0.965 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.993 0.170 -0.224 3.365 0.201 -0.061 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.182 0.075 0.077 103 296 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.58 1.00 1.11 1.69 38.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.060 -0.062 -0.033 0.079 0.069 -0.080 -0.123 -0.038 -0.094 -0.019 PACF -0.060 -0.066 -0.041 0.071 0.075 -0.063 -0.122 -0.067 -0.135 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.105 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 0.002 -0.032 0.074 0.059 -0.082 -0.135 -0.061 -0.110 -0.037 PACF -0.003 0.002 -0.032 0.074 0.060 -0.084 -0.134 -0.065 -0.128 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.105 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.003 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.993 0.186 0.070 3.253 0.170 0.365 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.364 0.312 0.143 0.132 0.041 -0.102 -0.194 -0.186 -0.229 -0.187 PACF 0.364 0.207 -0.027 0.039 -0.036 -0.168 -0.153 -0.044 -0.096 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.100 0.113 0.121 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.128 0.131 0.135 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.171 0.289 0.207 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES