RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.850 0.306 0.836 3.571 0.208 0.710 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.724 0.290 0.616 2.564 0.241 0.711 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.923 0.335 0.870 3.555 0.196 0.734 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.772 0.229 0.582 2.907 0.197 0.646 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.736 0.374 1.863 6.952 0.249 0.651 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.798 0.405 1.011 3.662 0.244 0.770 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.065 0.453 1.516 5.806 0.210 0.713 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.007 0.459 1.287 4.531 0.216 0.799 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.834 0.491 1.713 5.655 0.224 0.803 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.872 0.380 1.139 5.309 0.216 0.741 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.287 0.444 1.484 6.528 0.179 0.709 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.201 0.479 0.728 3.438 0.225 0.737 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.721 0.313 1.721 7.430 0.216 0.716 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.766 0.267 1.318 7.213 0.197 0.609 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.886 0.535 1.909 6.080 0.202 0.862 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.943 0.399 1.839 6.983 0.187 0.811 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.763 0.238 0.657 3.974 0.210 0.584 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.725 0.215 0.232 3.246 0.217 0.591 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.893 0.386 2.211 8.960 0.211 0.652 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.849 0.231 0.639 4.072 0.207 0.539 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.887 0.428 2.266 10.815 0.192 0.765 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.344 1.728 7.223 0.207 0.587 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.060 0.420 1.126 4.402 0.204 0.733 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.065 0.434 1.532 5.771 0.230 0.735 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 0.901 0.369 1.284 5.444 0.212 0.705 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.153 0.092 0.561 2.062 0.017 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.879 0.383 1.302 5.482 0.210 0.715 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.234 0.141 0.942 3.351 0.021 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.721 0.215 0.232 2.564 0.179 0.539 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.769 0.298 0.782 3.616 0.200 0.649 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.003 0.439 1.724 6.968 0.220 0.753 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.287 0.535 2.266 10.815 0.249 0.862 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.549 0.208 0.013 -0.882 3.217 -0.064 0.901 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.064 SERIES 684022 AND 684061 218 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.901 SERIES 684011 AND 684012 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.496 0.488 0.469 0.514 0.583 0.512 0.459 0.592 SDEV 0.213 0.180 0.152 0.148 0.178 0.260 0.239 0.212 SERR 0.016 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.016 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.957 0.958 0.955 0.962 0.971 0.962 0.953 0.972 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.943 0.387 1.697 5.802 0.168 0.797 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.698 0.251 0.027 128 140 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.73 1.00 1.15 1.88 7.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.794 0.777 0.754 0.758 0.757 0.738 0.681 0.670 0.659 0.649 PACF 0.794 0.395 0.215 0.211 0.171 0.071 -0.110 -0.028 0.005 0.011 95% C.L. 0.122 0.184 0.228 0.262 0.293 0.321 0.345 0.365 0.383 0.399 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.777 0.221 0.160 0.092 0.156 0.193 0.139 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 1 0.77808720 0.03237732 0.00000000 0.76053178 2 684012 1 0.78578496 0.05152247 0.00000000 0.66505510 3 684021 1 1.02465451 0.04339543 0.00000000 0.83027238 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193229 0.56029469 5 684031 1 1.18948114 0.02810547 0.00000000 0.56939369 6 684032 1 1.03122663 0.02247349 0.00000000 0.61376971 7 684041 1 1.43498981 0.01615378 0.00000000 0.71880174 8 684042 1 1.44494760 0.02139431 0.00000000 0.75073475 9 684051 1 1.89524591 0.03141455 0.00000000 0.59703857 10 684052 1 1.08226550 0.01318519 0.00000000 0.56710178 11 684061 1 1.18967307 0.01897330 0.00000000 1.00747728 12 684062 1 1.18954217 0.02283166 0.00000000 0.98495436 13 684071 1 1.06720817 0.02492769 0.00000000 0.55249602 14 684072 1 0.69331354 0.00827581 0.00000000 0.47314858 15 684081 1 1.87582815 0.02248579 0.00000000 0.57793570 16 684082 1 1.46307671 0.02854467 0.00000000 0.75226539 17 684091 1 0.27041873 0.02508180 0.00000000 0.72097486 18 684092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105820 0.60099751 19 684101 1 1.55128527 0.04155996 0.00000000 0.75017810 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152148 0.67478126 21 684111 1 1.70164990 0.03147763 0.00000000 0.68032879 22 684112 1 1.10068858 0.03608635 0.00000000 0.87827349 23 684121 1 1.19912028 0.02576855 0.00000000 0.88260329 24 684122 1 1.76790965 0.04289045 0.00000000 0.91466343 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.999 0.305 0.473 3.050 0.208 0.618 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.999 0.365 0.679 3.054 0.240 0.671 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.299 0.411 2.527 0.195 0.658 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.247 0.350 3.035 0.196 0.485 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.322 0.583 3.109 0.248 0.474 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.999 0.411 0.777 3.360 0.243 0.744 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.238 0.250 3.481 0.210 0.361 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.288 0.029 2.769 0.215 0.609 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.345 0.532 3.468 0.223 0.642 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.307 0.582 3.591 0.215 0.607 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.244 0.594 3.247 0.179 0.548 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.326 0.257 2.604 0.224 0.663 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.259 0.096 3.499 0.215 0.447 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.257 0.252 3.313 0.196 0.458 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.001 0.297 0.460 3.196 0.201 0.618 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.237 0.102 2.841 0.187 0.504 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.301 0.561 3.484 0.209 0.583 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.001 0.291 0.501 4.212 0.216 0.548 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.251 0.298 2.813 0.211 0.404 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.001 0.248 0.566 4.020 0.206 0.448 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.250 0.404 3.089 0.192 0.546 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.245 0.402 2.971 0.206 0.414 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.308 0.763 3.766 0.203 0.614 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.267 0.157 2.930 0.229 0.453 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.288 0.420 3.226 0.211 0.547 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.044 0.208 0.417 0.017 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.289 0.435 3.153 0.209 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.058 0.319 0.532 0.021 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.237 0.029 2.527 0.179 0.361 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.249 0.255 2.951 0.199 0.455 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.307 0.574 3.482 0.219 0.618 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.001 0.411 0.777 4.212 0.248 0.744 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.996 0.254 0.371 3.143 0.208 0.464 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.996 0.295 0.545 3.205 0.240 0.502 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.997 0.230 0.141 3.083 0.195 0.429 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.245 0.383 3.001 0.196 0.476 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.280 0.444 3.792 0.247 0.312 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.990 0.285 0.279 2.909 0.243 0.435 7 684041 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.233 0.176 3.411 0.210 0.337 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.998 0.271 -0.075 2.799 0.215 0.544 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.990 0.271 0.117 3.370 0.223 0.438 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.995 0.272 0.511 3.727 0.215 0.494 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.998 0.231 0.536 3.146 0.179 0.496 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.996 0.305 0.197 2.640 0.224 0.621 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.253 0.158 3.751 0.214 0.418 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.998 0.243 0.354 3.877 0.196 0.384 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.998 0.241 -0.080 3.138 0.201 0.396 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.999 0.218 -0.047 2.954 0.187 0.405 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.996 0.270 0.608 4.094 0.209 0.495 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.996 0.259 0.319 4.213 0.216 0.428 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.999 0.238 0.184 2.768 0.211 0.335 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.237 0.448 4.058 0.206 0.406 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.998 0.234 0.316 2.996 0.192 0.470 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.242 0.501 3.187 0.206 0.398 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.993 0.270 0.713 3.817 0.203 0.496 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.998 0.246 0.134 3.102 0.229 0.340 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 0.997 0.255 0.301 3.341 0.211 0.438 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.003 0.023 0.216 0.459 0.017 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.998 0.250 0.317 3.167 0.210 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.003 0.034 0.325 0.773 0.021 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.990 0.218 -0.080 2.640 0.179 0.312 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.996 0.237 0.149 2.999 0.199 0.397 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.999 0.271 0.474 3.771 0.219 0.494 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 0.999 0.305 0.713 4.213 0.247 0.621 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.477 0.106 0.006 0.041 3.496 0.128 0.835 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.128 SERIES 684051 AND 684121 251 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.835 SERIES 684011 AND 684012 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.454 0.428 0.427 0.560 0.604 0.541 0.510 0.563 SDEV 0.162 0.178 0.152 0.127 0.151 0.220 0.215 0.180 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.013 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.950 0.947 0.947 0.968 0.973 0.966 0.962 0.969 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.990 0.180 0.149 2.822 0.168 0.297 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.266 0.078 0.102 111 157 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.34 1.00 1.08 1.42 4.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.145 0.138 0.168 0.163 0.139 -0.017 0.060 0.061 0.001 PACF 0.296 0.062 0.088 0.110 0.082 0.055 -0.117 0.054 0.004 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.122 0.132 0.135 0.137 0.140 0.143 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.091 0.296 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.303 0.124 0.134 0.158 0.151 0.155 0.007 0.066 0.077 -0.004 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.303 2 0.292 0.036 3 0.288 0.008 0.096 4 0.279 0.007 0.067 0.099 5 0.271 0.002 0.067 0.078 0.076 6 0.265 -0.005 0.061 0.078 0.054 0.082 7 0.273 0.001 0.069 0.084 0.054 0.107 -0.097 8 0.279 -0.005 0.066 0.079 0.050 0.107 -0.113 0.056 9 0.278 -0.004 0.065 0.078 0.049 0.106 -0.112 0.053 0.012 10 0.279 0.000 0.057 0.085 0.052 0.112 -0.108 0.053 0.030 -0.065 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2253.52 2229.75 2231.41 2230.93 2230.27 2230.70 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2230.92 2230.37 2231.52 2233.48 2234.33 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.303 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.17 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.09 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.303 0.092 0.028 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 1 0.225 0.469 2 684012 1 0.256 0.506 3 684021 1 0.197 0.431 4 684022 1 0.231 0.477 5 684031 1 0.124 0.313 6 684032 1 0.222 0.436 7 684041 1 0.141 0.337 8 684042 1 0.313 0.545 9 684051 1 0.224 0.439 10 684052 1 0.248 0.495 11 684061 1 0.247 0.496 12 684062 1 0.406 0.621 13 684071 1 0.214 0.418 14 684072 1 0.155 0.384 15 684081 1 0.182 0.401 16 684082 1 0.175 0.410 17 684091 1 0.249 0.496 18 684092 1 0.189 0.430 19 684101 1 0.113 0.335 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 1 0.168 0.406 21 684111 1 0.248 0.472 22 684112 1 0.162 0.398 23 684121 1 0.258 0.498 24 684122 1 0.117 0.340 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.211 0.440 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.066 0.073 MEDIAN 1 0.218 0.434 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.083 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.113 0.313 LOWER HINGE 1 0.165 0.400 UPPER HINGE 1 0.248 0.496 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.406 0.621 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.224 0.264 3.515 0.252 -0.040 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.254 0.347 3.293 0.286 -0.008 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.208 0.335 3.116 0.235 -0.053 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.215 0.369 2.941 0.236 -0.032 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.266 0.273 4.114 0.289 -0.051 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.257 0.048 3.109 0.300 -0.085 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.219 -0.139 3.480 0.247 -0.059 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.227 0.076 3.450 0.268 -0.083 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.244 0.422 4.029 0.268 -0.084 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.236 0.413 3.941 0.257 -0.029 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.200 0.363 3.947 0.227 -0.019 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.239 0.058 3.332 0.286 -0.112 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.230 0.321 3.847 0.255 -0.091 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.224 0.722 5.498 0.232 -0.036 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.220 -0.100 3.470 0.243 -0.068 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.199 0.014 2.804 0.224 -0.042 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.234 0.598 4.527 0.257 -0.030 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.234 0.286 4.118 0.252 -0.032 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.224 0.114 3.191 0.240 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.216 0.219 4.028 0.236 0.025 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.206 0.137 3.141 0.233 -0.086 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.222 0.377 3.157 0.247 -0.023 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.234 0.568 3.608 0.250 -0.058 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.232 0.081 3.252 0.260 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.228 0.257 3.621 0.253 -0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.017 0.215 0.594 0.021 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.226 0.279 3.475 0.251 -0.041 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.017 0.295 0.814 0.028 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.199 -0.139 2.804 0.224 -0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.218 0.078 3.174 0.236 -0.076 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.235 0.373 3.988 0.264 -0.026 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.266 0.722 5.498 0.300 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.558 0.073 0.004 0.411 3.396 0.397 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.397 SERIES 684041 AND 684092 233 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 684011 AND 684012 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.551 0.516 0.553 0.637 0.626 0.585 0.592 0.576 SDEV 0.114 0.122 0.109 0.100 0.120 0.147 0.141 0.123 SERR 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.966 0.962 0.967 0.977 0.976 0.971 0.972 0.970 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.995 0.172 0.007 2.973 0.203 -0.162 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.238 0.068 0.080 104 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.37 1.00 1.05 1.42 11.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.162 -0.020 0.038 0.074 0.059 0.095 -0.120 0.055 0.051 -0.017 PACF -0.162 -0.047 0.028 0.086 0.091 0.129 -0.088 0.011 0.035 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.122 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 -0.162 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.041 0.049 0.094 0.090 0.089 -0.102 0.046 0.060 -0.017 PACF -0.008 -0.041 0.049 0.093 0.097 0.099 -0.102 0.033 0.027 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.128 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.995 0.177 0.166 2.819 0.166 0.293 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.292 0.075 0.103 0.147 0.145 0.103 -0.045 0.043 0.060 -0.010 PACF 0.292 -0.011 0.092 0.102 0.080 0.036 -0.113 0.064 0.002 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.122 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.136 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.085 0.292 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES