RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 3.314 0.349 2.977 17.681 0.075 0.378 2 684012 1733 1983 251 3.201 0.367 1.229 5.156 0.072 0.645 3 684021 1734 1983 250 3.111 0.348 3.593 27.740 0.060 0.592 4 684022 1766 1983 218 3.009 0.282 1.754 11.947 0.056 0.592 5 684031 1734 1983 250 3.109 0.294 1.376 8.322 0.069 0.477 6 684032 1739 1983 245 3.338 0.557 3.613 19.520 0.060 0.868 7 684041 1734 1983 250 2.979 0.272 1.757 12.955 0.066 0.398 8 684042 1725 1983 259 3.096 0.303 2.942 18.134 0.061 0.551 9 684051 1733 1983 251 3.279 0.208 0.559 3.793 0.057 0.317 10 684052 1725 1983 259 3.283 0.256 2.199 12.184 0.059 0.476 11 684061 1765 1983 219 3.092 0.362 0.796 3.527 0.067 0.633 12 684062 1747 1983 237 2.911 0.360 1.865 8.265 0.050 0.844 13 684071 1734 1983 250 3.333 0.472 2.953 13.588 0.070 0.539 14 684072 1736 1983 248 3.473 0.218 1.709 7.844 0.045 0.543 15 684081 1717 1983 267 3.118 0.413 2.330 10.199 0.063 0.740 16 684082 1719 1983 265 3.088 0.284 0.846 4.407 0.058 0.670 17 684091 1734 1983 250 3.394 0.322 1.516 7.064 0.058 0.537 18 684092 1751 1983 233 3.506 0.401 1.593 6.339 0.060 0.683 19 684101 1728 1983 256 3.228 0.434 3.667 20.472 0.060 0.758 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 3.317 0.328 0.393 2.756 0.057 0.739 21 684111 1726 1983 258 3.250 0.255 0.708 4.274 0.058 0.547 22 684112 1735 1983 249 3.294 0.392 0.485 2.677 0.068 0.712 23 684121 1725 1983 259 2.909 0.226 1.147 6.378 0.056 0.532 24 684122 1716 1983 268 2.985 0.265 1.692 8.460 0.058 0.522 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 3.192 0.332 1.821 10.153 0.061 0.596 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.168 0.085 1.019 6.567 0.007 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 3.215 0.325 1.700 8.293 0.060 0.571 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.225 0.112 1.640 8.490 0.009 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 218 2.909 0.208 0.393 2.677 0.045 0.317 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 3.090 0.268 0.997 4.781 0.057 0.527 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 3.316 0.380 2.636 13.272 0.066 0.697 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 3.506 0.557 3.667 27.740 0.075 0.868 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.419 0.161 0.010 -0.321 2.826 -0.050 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.050 SERIES 684081 AND 684102 228 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 684071 AND 684101 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.407 0.389 0.470 0.483 0.419 0.418 0.457 0.386 SDEV 0.193 0.201 0.189 0.222 0.224 0.204 0.157 0.183 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.940 0.939 0.955 0.957 0.945 0.945 0.953 0.938 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 3.195 0.241 1.407 6.327 0.049 0.621 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.654 0.352 -0.840 110 158 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.76 1.00 1.10 1.86 10.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.619 0.596 0.558 0.519 0.493 0.528 0.373 0.390 0.412 0.333 PACF 0.619 0.345 0.190 0.099 0.071 0.168 -0.177 0.010 0.119 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.122 0.162 0.192 0.215 0.233 0.248 0.264 0.272 0.280 0.289 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.529 0.302 0.209 0.120 0.069 0.062 0.245 -0.151 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00101250 3.44843650 2 684012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138819 3.37606764 3 684021 1 1.13690460 0.05793036 0.00000000 3.03511167 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00246283 3.27871633 5 684031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171998 3.32461691 6 684032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030571 3.37572432 7 684041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180561 3.20568395 8 684042 1 0.53363669 0.00440417 0.00000000 2.77773857 9 684051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019370 3.30293226 10 684052 1 1.46036482 0.12842178 0.00000000 3.24198079 11 684061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00272727 3.39219165 12 684062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00318508 3.28961563 13 684071 1 1.52221382 0.03951925 0.00000000 3.18196273 14 684072 1 1.03571916 0.08991532 0.00000000 3.42827177 15 684081 1 1.86306453 0.06709029 0.00000000 3.01746082 16 684082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00253157 3.42469907 17 684091 1 0.82116616 0.00882685 0.00000000 3.06428075 18 684092 1 1.01582718 0.01092054 0.00000000 3.13985682 19 684101 1 1.25864220 0.02568480 0.00000000 3.03919673 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 1 0.96439874 0.01450831 0.00000000 3.03792739 21 684111 1 2.27146816 0.00103042 0.00000000 1.25682855 22 684112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00345324 3.72599196 23 684121 1 1.59023464 0.00141321 0.00000000 1.57906830 24 684122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098359 3.11725569 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.101 2.533 14.102 0.075 0.357 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.110 1.531 6.016 0.072 0.617 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 1.683 13.016 0.060 0.485 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.076 1.954 13.635 0.056 0.437 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.084 1.207 7.244 0.068 0.363 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.166 3.583 19.391 0.060 0.864 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.079 2.349 18.422 0.066 0.215 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.090 2.394 14.083 0.060 0.487 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.063 0.564 3.798 0.057 0.315 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.059 0.536 3.493 0.059 0.149 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.099 0.405 3.486 0.066 0.518 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.092 1.699 9.567 0.050 0.734 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.099 1.063 5.595 0.070 0.333 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.047 0.649 3.670 0.045 0.243 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.091 0.520 3.126 0.062 0.532 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.065 0.458 3.639 0.057 0.374 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.072 1.457 8.833 0.058 0.279 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.086 1.619 7.590 0.060 0.479 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.090 2.530 16.099 0.060 0.544 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.066 0.235 4.166 0.057 0.402 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.062 0.398 4.017 0.057 0.276 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.090 0.455 2.994 0.068 0.511 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.059 0.868 5.096 0.056 0.243 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.084 1.567 7.812 0.058 0.481 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.084 1.344 8.287 0.061 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.024 0.886 5.237 0.007 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.085 1.332 6.630 0.060 0.420 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.026 1.298 9.592 0.009 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.047 0.235 2.994 0.045 0.149 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.066 0.528 3.734 0.057 0.297 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.092 1.826 13.325 0.066 0.515 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.166 3.583 19.391 0.075 0.864 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.090 1.732 9.810 0.075 0.252 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.087 1.018 5.049 0.072 0.414 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.081 2.378 18.576 0.060 0.395 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.073 2.588 18.172 0.056 0.375 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.081 1.509 8.809 0.068 0.299 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.999 0.131 3.407 19.482 0.060 0.790 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.075 2.352 18.243 0.066 0.123 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.085 2.351 13.802 0.060 0.444 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.059 0.585 4.091 0.057 0.212 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.058 0.554 3.414 0.059 0.108 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.999 0.082 1.062 6.440 0.066 0.275 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.082 1.991 10.772 0.050 0.667 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.091 1.428 7.859 0.070 0.204 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.045 0.671 3.812 0.045 0.150 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.074 0.973 5.393 0.063 0.307 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.060 0.401 3.609 0.057 0.279 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.070 1.504 8.949 0.058 0.254 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.082 1.553 7.360 0.060 0.437 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.088 2.690 17.266 0.060 0.529 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.058 0.211 4.559 0.057 0.232 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.060 0.455 4.396 0.057 0.230 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.079 0.359 3.692 0.068 0.362 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.059 0.817 4.816 0.056 0.227 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.076 1.645 8.113 0.058 0.379 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.076 1.426 9.020 0.061 0.331 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.017 0.872 5.533 0.007 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.077 1.466 7.609 0.060 0.289 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.024 1.543 7.810 0.009 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.045 0.211 3.414 0.045 0.108 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.060 0.628 4.477 0.057 0.228 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.084 2.171 12.287 0.066 0.405 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.131 3.407 19.482 0.075 0.790 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.365 0.119 0.007 -0.050 2.862 0.038 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.038 SERIES 684012 AND 684032 245 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 684041 AND 684042 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.444 0.411 0.474 0.499 0.426 0.408 0.460 0.389 SDEV 0.189 0.182 0.189 0.210 0.221 0.184 0.142 0.156 SERR 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.948 0.944 0.956 0.960 0.947 0.943 0.953 0.939 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.997 0.047 0.624 4.038 0.048 0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.376 0.216 -0.163 147 121 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.89 1.00 1.11 2.00 10.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.143 0.060 0.057 -0.014 0.006 0.067 -0.142 -0.110 0.034 -0.059 PACF 0.143 0.040 0.043 -0.030 0.008 0.066 -0.163 -0.079 0.072 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.122 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.128 0.130 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.118 0.038 0.081 0.007 0.031 0.092 -0.182 -0.111 0.033 -0.055 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.118 2 0.115 0.025 3 0.113 0.016 0.075 4 0.114 0.017 0.076 -0.012 5 0.114 0.014 0.076 -0.015 0.028 6 0.112 0.016 0.070 -0.016 0.019 0.081 7 0.129 0.019 0.066 -0.002 0.022 0.104 -0.208 8 0.112 0.028 0.068 -0.002 0.027 0.106 -0.198 -0.078 9 0.117 0.039 0.062 -0.003 0.027 0.102 -0.199 -0.084 0.056 10 0.119 0.036 0.056 0.000 0.028 0.102 -0.197 -0.083 0.060 -0.034 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1519.45 1517.72 1519.55 1520.03 1522.00 1523.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1524.03 1514.20 1514.57 1515.72 1517.42 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.118 0.014 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 1 0.172 0.269 2 684012 1 0.209 0.415 3 684021 1 0.161 0.399 4 684022 1 0.158 0.387 5 684031 1 0.096 0.300 6 684032 1 0.648 0.792 7 684041 1 0.032 0.125 8 684042 1 0.240 0.464 9 684051 1 0.050 0.212 10 684052 1 0.021 0.110 11 684061 1 0.141 0.276 12 684062 1 0.483 0.668 13 684071 1 0.065 0.205 14 684072 1 0.031 0.150 15 684081 1 0.102 0.309 16 684082 1 0.099 0.282 17 684091 1 0.078 0.264 18 684092 1 0.227 0.439 19 684101 1 0.283 0.530 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 1 0.071 0.233 21 684111 1 0.107 0.231 22 684112 1 0.134 0.363 23 684121 1 0.057 0.237 24 684122 1 0.162 0.382 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.160 0.335 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.145 0.163 MEDIAN 1 0.121 0.291 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.122 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.021 0.110 LOWER HINGE 1 0.068 0.232 UPPER HINGE 1 0.191 0.407 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.648 0.792 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.086 1.687 9.745 0.088 -0.100 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.079 0.437 4.018 0.090 -0.088 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.074 2.553 22.531 0.072 0.017 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.067 2.242 18.118 0.066 0.025 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.077 1.581 9.032 0.079 -0.024 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.080 1.107 8.510 0.092 -0.188 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.074 2.376 18.756 0.070 -0.015 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.075 1.640 9.367 0.077 -0.090 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.057 0.478 3.947 0.063 -0.016 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.057 0.527 3.323 0.063 -0.009 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.079 1.143 9.015 0.078 -0.073 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.061 0.833 5.618 0.073 -0.170 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.089 1.398 8.527 0.078 -0.031 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.044 0.626 3.689 0.048 -0.014 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.071 0.934 5.046 0.072 -0.029 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.058 0.327 3.115 0.066 -0.042 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.068 1.568 9.721 0.066 -0.033 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.074 0.989 6.104 0.076 -0.091 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.075 1.511 11.583 0.078 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.057 0.214 4.348 0.064 -0.032 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.058 0.497 4.724 0.065 -0.055 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.073 0.258 3.966 0.080 -0.018 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.057 0.702 4.621 0.062 -0.012 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.071 1.759 9.905 0.070 -0.055 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.069 1.141 8.222 0.072 -0.049 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.011 0.688 5.198 0.010 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.072 1.048 7.307 0.072 -0.031 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.018 1.099 5.550 0.013 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.044 0.214 3.115 0.048 -0.188 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.058 0.512 4.183 0.065 -0.080 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.076 1.611 9.733 0.078 -0.016 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.089 2.553 22.531 0.092 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.445 0.092 0.006 0.087 3.018 0.202 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.202 SERIES 684032 AND 684112 245 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 684041 AND 684042 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.497 0.472 0.515 0.582 0.516 0.470 0.500 0.449 SDEV 0.180 0.150 0.157 0.165 0.176 0.138 0.117 0.133 SERR 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.958 0.955 0.962 0.971 0.962 0.955 0.960 0.951 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.997 0.046 0.321 3.167 0.054 -0.183 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.287 0.153 -0.107 132 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.92 1.00 1.09 2.01 7.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.183 -0.020 0.058 -0.053 -0.007 0.135 -0.153 -0.078 0.103 -0.065 PACF -0.183 -0.055 0.046 -0.036 -0.021 0.130 -0.106 -0.126 0.053 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.122 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.132 0.132 0.134 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.037 -0.184 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.045 0.050 -0.047 0.008 0.114 -0.152 -0.093 0.082 -0.053 PACF -0.009 -0.045 0.049 -0.049 0.011 0.108 -0.148 -0.089 0.065 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.129 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.997 0.045 0.421 3.485 0.047 0.104 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.103 -0.027 0.041 -0.040 0.014 0.096 -0.148 -0.100 0.064 -0.047 PACF 0.103 -0.038 0.048 -0.051 0.027 0.087 -0.166 -0.064 0.069 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.128 0.129 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 0.104 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES