RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 684012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1777 1777 / 1938 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 684051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1901 1905 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 684072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1939 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 684081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1873 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 684091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1852 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.169 0.105 3.076 14.874 0.300 0.545 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.141 0.073 1.631 5.657 0.258 0.713 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.162 0.081 1.642 6.088 0.188 0.823 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.126 0.054 3.560 24.981 0.192 0.684 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.153 0.093 1.712 6.032 0.229 0.766 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.200 0.095 1.028 3.797 0.273 0.654 7 684041 1734 1983 250 0.151 0.090 1.837 6.457 0.234 0.788 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.158 0.139 7.122 75.641 0.213 0.649 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.138 0.109 3.220 15.736 0.245 0.775 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.144 0.079 2.260 8.583 0.240 0.650 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.251 0.207 3.565 23.766 0.324 0.553 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.238 0.168 2.340 8.861 0.187 0.867 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.166 0.089 4.534 32.224 0.199 0.528 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.153 0.086 2.141 8.968 0.197 0.833 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.152 0.205 6.680 56.244 0.197 0.817 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.162 0.113 2.445 9.143 0.202 0.893 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.175 0.122 4.462 29.960 0.290 0.295 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.151 0.082 2.163 9.084 0.300 0.650 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.150 0.152 6.287 52.754 0.256 0.665 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.174 0.073 2.688 14.206 0.219 0.593 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.158 0.084 1.778 5.597 0.241 0.758 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.216 0.142 3.018 16.258 0.307 0.512 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.171 0.102 3.355 21.257 0.252 0.660 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.159 0.099 2.800 14.440 0.249 0.723 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 248 0.167 0.110 3.139 19.609 0.241 0.683 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.030 0.040 1.631 18.359 0.041 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.158 0.097 2.744 14.323 0.240 0.675 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.021 0.047 1.574 16.853 0.065 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.126 0.054 1.028 3.797 0.187 0.295 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 0.151 0.083 1.989 7.520 0.201 0.621 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 0.173 0.130 3.563 24.373 0.266 0.781 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 0.251 0.207 7.122 75.641 0.324 0.893 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.500 0.191 0.011 -0.400 2.813 -0.049 0.856 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.049 SERIES 684011 AND 684061 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.856 SERIES 684042 AND 684081 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.341 0.360 0.436 0.257 0.329 0.276 0.218 0.341 SDEV 0.207 0.215 0.228 0.193 0.177 0.191 0.199 0.204 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.922 0.931 0.949 0.892 0.922 0.901 0.870 0.925 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.169 0.099 2.310 9.059 0.149 0.874 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.703 0.402 -0.016 202 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.44 2.79 1.00 1.44 4.23 50.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.871 0.828 0.765 0.750 0.735 0.729 0.724 0.728 0.704 0.673 PACF 0.871 0.288 0.005 0.165 0.120 0.090 0.088 0.114 -0.038 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.122 0.194 0.241 0.275 0.304 0.329 0.353 0.374 0.395 0.413 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.837 0.513 0.427 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 1 0.32512826 0.06516675 0.00000000 0.15072614 2 684012 1 0.31874973 0.06364288 0.00000000 0.12277079 3 684021 1 0.28181955 0.01717809 0.00000000 0.09803011 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041039 0.17131400 5 684031 1 0.29678145 0.01635329 0.00000000 0.08240674 6 684032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077726 0.29527703 7 684041 1 0.32099724 0.02054168 0.00000000 0.08994021 8 684042 1 0.45731330 0.03485423 0.00000000 0.10701235 9 684051 1 0.43082595 0.03499375 0.00000000 0.08822715 10 684052 1 0.23852831 0.02590175 0.00000000 0.10861476 11 684061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173598 0.44241884 12 684062 1 0.45843852 0.01275550 0.00000000 0.09450616 13 684071 1 0.33297431 0.05608254 0.00000000 0.14315128 14 684072 1 0.31440160 0.02194736 0.00000000 0.09369093 15 684081 1 0.71323591 0.03633511 0.00000000 0.07862241 16 684082 1 0.47310475 0.02991763 0.00000000 0.10319972 17 684091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051404 0.23855275 18 684092 1 0.23527007 0.02509074 0.00000000 0.11114807 19 684101 1 0.46598709 0.02963070 0.00000000 0.08903600 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 1 0.28915188 0.05813538 0.00000000 0.15324342 21 684111 1 0.29705381 0.02096870 0.00000000 0.10370080 22 684112 1 0.33855489 0.00938474 0.00000000 0.08560778 23 684121 1 0.39137217 0.03651723 0.00000000 0.12995309 24 684122 1 0.34765872 0.02418425 0.00000000 0.10567179 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.597 4.566 28.050 0.298 0.442 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.409 1.911 8.119 0.259 0.505 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.230 1.030 5.085 0.188 0.347 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.002 0.340 3.124 22.137 0.191 0.563 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.001 0.364 2.449 11.490 0.228 0.550 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.007 0.399 1.003 3.843 0.273 0.556 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.293 2.427 13.754 0.233 0.300 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.997 0.394 3.490 24.563 0.209 0.545 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.003 0.338 1.737 9.560 0.245 0.402 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.385 2.951 17.368 0.239 0.412 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.020 0.559 2.112 11.615 0.324 0.476 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.007 0.392 1.490 6.233 0.187 0.725 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.334 1.921 12.115 0.199 0.458 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.999 0.253 1.659 9.350 0.194 0.349 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.007 0.339 3.497 24.680 0.198 0.487 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.002 0.269 0.657 3.037 0.202 0.501 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.008 0.632 4.373 32.997 0.294 0.283 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.371 1.655 7.677 0.298 0.342 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.004 0.376 4.097 31.954 0.255 0.350 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.307 3.694 32.901 0.217 0.287 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.268 2.126 13.601 0.240 0.190 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.431 2.180 10.598 0.305 0.328 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.999 0.333 1.855 10.538 0.251 0.379 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.999 0.329 2.989 22.440 0.248 0.289 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.002 0.373 2.458 15.571 0.241 0.419 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.005 0.101 1.080 9.490 0.041 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.352 2.153 11.865 0.240 0.407 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.004 0.078 1.609 14.767 0.065 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.997 0.230 0.657 3.037 0.187 0.190 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.318 1.698 8.734 0.200 0.335 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.004 0.396 3.307 23.501 0.266 0.503 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.020 0.632 4.566 32.997 0.324 0.725 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.996 0.392 2.511 13.085 0.298 0.239 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.994 0.383 2.225 10.268 0.259 0.444 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.219 0.960 4.879 0.188 0.290 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.996 0.308 2.911 20.000 0.191 0.510 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.997 0.305 1.952 8.825 0.228 0.408 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.989 0.318 0.793 3.806 0.273 0.369 7 684041 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.284 2.330 13.753 0.233 0.281 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.996 0.364 3.399 23.208 0.209 0.482 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.996 0.310 2.176 13.573 0.245 0.297 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.995 0.341 2.489 14.570 0.240 0.345 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.990 0.517 2.697 16.341 0.324 0.403 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.992 0.330 1.791 7.812 0.187 0.611 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.994 0.298 2.532 17.415 0.199 0.305 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.998 0.244 1.778 10.014 0.194 0.307 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.999 0.338 3.786 27.149 0.198 0.479 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.998 0.250 0.525 3.028 0.202 0.415 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.995 0.624 6.379 62.974 0.294 0.189 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.999 0.358 1.562 6.680 0.298 0.303 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.999 0.364 4.366 34.778 0.255 0.312 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.276 4.138 39.697 0.218 0.141 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.267 2.245 14.388 0.240 0.171 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.421 2.169 10.731 0.305 0.301 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.997 0.303 1.997 11.257 0.252 0.271 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.997 0.304 2.965 22.292 0.248 0.208 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 0.996 0.338 2.528 17.105 0.241 0.337 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.003 0.088 1.253 13.375 0.041 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.997 0.314 2.288 13.663 0.240 0.306 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.003 0.073 1.066 11.727 0.065 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.989 0.219 0.525 3.028 0.187 0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.995 0.291 1.872 9.419 0.201 0.276 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.998 0.364 2.938 21.146 0.266 0.411 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.624 6.379 62.974 0.324 0.611 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.238 0.115 0.007 0.394 3.309 -0.052 0.637 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.052 SERIES 684051 AND 684091 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.637 SERIES 684102 AND 684122 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.237 0.332 0.368 0.262 0.323 0.269 0.236 0.306 SDEV 0.190 0.211 0.204 0.194 0.174 0.190 0.197 0.190 SERR 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.876 0.923 0.933 0.895 0.920 0.898 0.881 0.914 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.963 0.168 1.822 11.138 0.146 0.300 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.503 0.338 -0.098 134 134 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.69 1.79 1.00 1.18 2.97 69.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.100 0.036 -0.012 0.027 -0.025 -0.073 -0.005 0.060 0.071 PACF 0.299 0.012 0.003 -0.026 0.041 -0.045 -0.062 0.039 0.067 0.035 95% C.L. 0.122 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.135 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.090 0.300 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.291 0.115 0.087 0.040 0.091 0.031 -0.045 0.009 0.070 0.070 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.291 2 0.281 0.033 3 0.279 0.019 0.049 4 0.280 0.019 0.049 -0.001 5 0.280 0.015 0.048 -0.023 0.080 6 0.281 0.015 0.049 -0.023 0.086 -0.022 7 0.280 0.020 0.047 -0.020 0.087 -0.004 -0.065 8 0.282 0.021 0.045 -0.019 0.085 -0.004 -0.074 0.033 9 0.280 0.026 0.045 -0.025 0.086 -0.007 -0.076 0.012 0.072 10 0.277 0.025 0.047 -0.025 0.084 -0.007 -0.077 0.012 0.063 0.033 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2223.75 2202.08 2203.79 2205.14 2207.14 2207.43 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2209.31 2210.18 2211.89 2212.49 2214.20 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.291 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.45 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.291 0.085 0.025 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 1 0.110 0.240 2 684012 1 0.200 0.444 3 684021 1 0.100 0.290 4 684022 1 0.262 0.511 5 684031 1 0.179 0.413 6 684032 1 0.206 0.373 7 684041 1 0.085 0.282 8 684042 1 0.233 0.483 9 684051 1 0.106 0.299 10 684052 1 0.121 0.346 11 684061 1 0.169 0.405 12 684062 1 0.401 0.611 13 684071 1 0.103 0.306 14 684072 1 0.116 0.310 15 684081 1 0.233 0.481 16 684082 1 0.186 0.417 17 684091 1 0.040 0.194 18 684092 1 0.092 0.303 19 684101 1 0.100 0.313 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 1 0.045 0.142 21 684111 1 0.032 0.172 22 684112 1 0.091 0.301 23 684121 1 0.082 0.271 24 684122 1 0.051 0.208 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.139 0.338 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.086 0.115 MEDIAN 1 0.108 0.308 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.105 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.032 0.142 LOWER HINGE 1 0.088 0.276 UPPER HINGE 1 0.193 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.401 0.611 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.381 2.163 11.581 0.345 -0.056 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.343 1.918 8.979 0.311 -0.026 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.209 0.988 5.386 0.220 -0.038 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.265 3.037 22.424 0.248 -0.020 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.277 1.611 7.135 0.286 -0.040 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.294 0.697 4.492 0.323 -0.106 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.273 2.288 13.832 0.267 -0.021 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.319 3.760 28.919 0.260 0.011 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.296 2.004 12.134 0.285 -0.038 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.320 2.686 17.024 0.281 -0.017 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.473 3.671 27.953 0.389 -0.029 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.261 0.925 7.624 0.267 -0.127 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.283 3.249 23.343 0.227 -0.031 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.232 1.960 11.657 0.230 -0.047 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.295 2.610 17.522 0.266 0.020 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.227 0.644 3.412 0.254 -0.052 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.612 7.054 72.544 0.321 -0.015 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.341 1.418 6.498 0.351 -0.007 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.346 4.116 34.403 0.299 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.273 4.203 40.414 0.235 -0.022 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.263 2.274 14.825 0.263 -0.008 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.402 2.348 12.057 0.349 0.005 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.291 1.928 10.677 0.286 -0.026 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.297 2.920 21.999 0.274 -0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.316 2.520 18.201 0.285 -0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.086 1.401 15.116 0.044 0.034 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.295 2.281 12.983 0.278 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.073 1.378 14.582 0.060 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.209 0.644 3.412 0.220 -0.127 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.269 1.765 8.301 0.257 -0.039 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.342 3.143 22.884 0.316 -0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.612 7.054 72.544 0.389 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.248 0.107 0.006 0.505 3.588 -0.022 0.638 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.022 SERIES 684051 AND 684091 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.638 SERIES 684102 AND 684122 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.231 0.373 0.398 0.257 0.286 0.253 0.274 0.282 SDEV 0.182 0.199 0.183 0.169 0.158 0.165 0.181 0.174 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.873 0.935 0.941 0.893 0.906 0.890 0.900 0.904 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.972 0.157 1.985 13.225 0.163 -0.040 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.474 0.302 -0.088 145 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.62 1.64 1.01 1.13 2.77 61.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.040 0.011 -0.016 -0.038 0.039 -0.005 -0.052 0.002 0.066 0.011 PACF -0.040 0.009 -0.015 -0.040 0.036 -0.001 -0.055 -0.002 0.070 0.013 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.009 -0.017 -0.038 0.037 -0.005 -0.053 0.003 0.067 0.017 PACF 0.000 0.009 -0.017 -0.038 0.038 -0.005 -0.055 0.003 0.071 0.013 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.972 0.164 1.811 11.289 0.143 0.292 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.291 0.086 0.002 -0.026 0.021 -0.010 -0.043 0.012 0.075 0.057 PACF 0.291 0.002 -0.026 -0.022 0.040 -0.028 -0.041 0.041 0.073 0.011 95% C.L. 0.122 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.085 0.292 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES