RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 684011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 684022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1793 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 684052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1783 1787 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 684062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1815 1819 / 1975 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 684101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1888 1892 / 1966 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 684102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1775 1779 / 1794 1800 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 684112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1773 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 684121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1825 1829 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.279 0.032 3.459 21.552 0.075 0.356 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.272 0.031 1.272 5.039 0.076 0.625 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.265 0.031 2.457 15.765 0.062 0.629 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.258 0.027 1.268 8.270 0.062 0.607 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.259 0.027 1.052 8.955 0.082 0.472 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.282 0.049 3.693 21.225 0.068 0.846 7 684041 1734 1983 250 0.254 0.027 1.695 11.348 0.076 0.402 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.264 0.028 1.817 8.867 0.074 0.513 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.280 0.019 0.537 4.156 0.060 0.345 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.280 0.025 2.214 12.380 0.066 0.522 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.252 0.028 0.673 2.914 0.068 0.669 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.250 0.029 1.700 8.405 0.059 0.737 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.288 0.038 2.783 13.886 0.080 0.436 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.299 0.022 1.342 6.150 0.052 0.569 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.267 0.037 2.184 10.217 0.079 0.655 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.260 0.025 0.853 5.184 0.070 0.509 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.291 0.025 1.323 8.208 0.054 0.545 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.298 0.036 1.954 8.993 0.062 0.704 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.271 0.037 3.326 18.022 0.065 0.735 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.275 0.031 0.516 3.449 0.070 0.676 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.274 0.025 -0.002 6.303 0.066 0.500 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.274 0.031 0.369 2.607 0.073 0.645 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.243 0.020 0.980 4.987 0.063 0.423 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.250 0.024 1.501 8.356 0.065 0.571 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 0.270 0.029 1.624 9.385 0.068 0.571 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.015 0.007 0.994 5.392 0.008 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.271 0.028 1.421 8.380 0.067 0.570 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 11 0.021 0.007 1.282 6.752 0.012 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 211 0.243 0.019 -0.002 2.607 0.052 0.345 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 244 0.259 0.025 0.917 5.112 0.062 0.486 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 0.280 0.031 2.199 11.864 0.074 0.662 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 0.299 0.049 3.693 21.552 0.082 0.846 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.394 0.163 0.010 -0.318 2.956 -0.135 0.785 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.135 SERIES 684081 AND 684102 228 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.785 SERIES 684041 AND 684042 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.396 0.402 0.429 0.417 0.370 0.365 0.351 0.261 SDEV 0.187 0.205 0.196 0.228 0.217 0.216 0.184 0.208 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.937 0.942 0.947 0.945 0.934 0.933 0.928 0.894 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.270 0.020 1.415 6.358 0.054 0.544 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.563 0.303 -0.056 91 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.57 1.00 1.12 1.68 10.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.542 0.537 0.450 0.445 0.416 0.441 0.335 0.349 0.346 0.285 PACF 0.542 0.345 0.117 0.124 0.089 0.134 -0.065 0.028 0.078 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.122 0.154 0.180 0.196 0.210 0.222 0.235 0.242 0.249 0.256 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.420 0.268 0.237 0.045 0.070 0.052 0.154 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008960 0.29046425 2 684012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008577 0.28279874 3 684021 1 0.06180471 0.01044003 0.00000000 0.24341732 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025102 0.28590521 5 684031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016624 0.27974361 6 684032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002654 0.28555068 7 684041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014520 0.27266315 8 684042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010705 0.27773651 9 684051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002563 0.28350884 10 684052 1 0.13749598 0.11200265 0.00000000 0.27544239 11 684061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023301 0.27727535 12 684062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020243 0.27311778 13 684071 1 0.11155360 0.04677929 0.00000000 0.27864292 14 684072 1 0.09750930 0.07395829 0.00000000 0.29395056 15 684081 1 0.14500369 0.07217430 0.00000000 0.26000968 16 684082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018691 0.28470841 17 684091 1 0.06640598 0.00978649 0.00000000 0.26616931 18 684092 1 0.09421209 0.01717675 0.00000000 0.27515906 19 684101 1 0.09986380 0.03133845 0.00000000 0.25820422 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 1 0.08280838 0.01682829 0.00000000 0.25493771 21 684111 1 0.15237296 0.00140952 0.00000000 0.14674364 22 684112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027232 0.30828395 23 684121 1 0.05693406 0.00438493 0.00000000 0.20860407 24 684122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010772 0.26415312 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.108 2.934 17.495 0.074 0.340 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.111 1.429 5.542 0.075 0.610 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.095 1.409 9.808 0.062 0.527 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.081 1.444 9.145 0.062 0.413 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.094 0.816 7.465 0.082 0.335 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.174 3.663 21.114 0.067 0.842 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.095 1.846 13.932 0.076 0.289 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.100 1.431 7.353 0.073 0.464 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.067 0.538 4.259 0.060 0.339 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.066 0.383 2.943 0.066 0.170 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.092 0.455 3.500 0.068 0.525 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.097 1.195 8.310 0.059 0.659 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.101 1.002 5.730 0.080 0.270 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.055 0.289 3.043 0.052 0.276 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.105 0.578 3.619 0.079 0.488 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.075 0.606 4.262 0.070 0.257 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.063 0.729 5.657 0.054 0.249 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.086 1.563 6.810 0.062 0.483 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.098 2.044 12.179 0.064 0.542 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.084 0.477 3.507 0.069 0.422 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.075 -0.508 9.467 0.066 0.272 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.087 0.526 3.279 0.073 0.380 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.066 0.613 4.111 0.062 0.161 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.090 1.396 7.915 0.064 0.513 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.090 1.119 7.519 0.067 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.023 0.892 4.709 0.008 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.091 0.909 6.270 0.067 0.396 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.024 0.906 5.442 0.012 0.245 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.055 -0.508 2.943 0.052 0.161 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.075 0.532 3.865 0.062 0.274 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.099 1.438 9.306 0.074 0.519 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.174 3.663 21.114 0.082 0.842 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.999 0.096 2.184 12.742 0.074 0.241 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.087 0.927 4.397 0.076 0.401 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.089 1.700 11.669 0.062 0.472 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.076 2.032 12.672 0.062 0.328 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 1.218 9.944 0.082 0.245 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.999 0.136 3.586 21.424 0.068 0.755 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.089 1.748 13.224 0.076 0.198 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.095 1.474 7.486 0.074 0.412 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.062 0.600 4.430 0.060 0.231 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.065 0.355 2.941 0.066 0.137 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.999 0.071 0.581 4.211 0.068 0.234 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.086 1.631 10.155 0.059 0.569 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.093 1.333 7.752 0.080 0.125 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.052 0.292 2.997 0.052 0.178 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.999 0.088 1.094 6.119 0.079 0.269 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.071 0.634 4.291 0.070 0.173 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.060 0.969 6.603 0.054 0.171 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.083 1.536 6.803 0.062 0.445 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.096 2.192 13.239 0.064 0.520 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.070 0.455 4.540 0.069 0.161 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.073 -0.540 9.916 0.066 0.247 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.077 0.431 3.552 0.073 0.229 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.065 0.613 4.011 0.062 0.134 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.999 0.080 1.558 9.338 0.065 0.393 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.081 1.192 8.102 0.068 0.303 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.017 0.851 4.500 0.008 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.082 1.156 7.144 0.067 0.243 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.019 1.075 6.568 0.012 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.052 -0.540 2.941 0.052 0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.070 0.590 4.344 0.062 0.176 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.089 1.665 10.912 0.074 0.406 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.136 3.586 21.424 0.082 0.755 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.348 0.123 0.007 0.185 3.046 0.040 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.040 SERIES 684032 AND 684052 245 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 684041 AND 684042 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.432 0.433 0.434 0.426 0.380 0.358 0.340 0.270 SDEV 0.175 0.183 0.199 0.216 0.215 0.194 0.168 0.171 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.945 0.948 0.948 0.947 0.936 0.931 0.925 0.899 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.997 0.050 0.793 4.313 0.052 0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.435 0.211 -0.151 113 155 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.49 1.01 1.09 1.58 10.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.106 0.085 -0.003 -0.015 -0.017 -0.012 -0.121 -0.092 0.007 -0.049 PACF 0.106 0.074 -0.019 -0.019 -0.012 -0.007 -0.119 -0.069 0.043 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.122 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.126 0.127 0.127 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 0.107 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.116 0.080 0.059 0.016 0.017 0.011 -0.127 -0.070 0.043 -0.025 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.116 2 0.108 0.067 3 0.105 0.063 0.044 4 0.105 0.063 0.044 0.000 5 0.105 0.062 0.043 -0.001 0.008 6 0.105 0.062 0.043 -0.001 0.008 0.005 7 0.106 0.063 0.043 0.004 0.016 0.019 -0.134 8 0.099 0.064 0.044 0.005 0.018 0.022 -0.129 -0.047 9 0.103 0.074 0.042 0.003 0.018 0.019 -0.133 -0.054 0.075 10 0.104 0.073 0.040 0.003 0.018 0.019 -0.133 -0.053 0.077 -0.017 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1551.87 1550.26 1551.04 1552.53 1554.53 1556.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1558.50 1555.68 1557.10 1557.60 1559.52 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.116 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.36 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.116 0.013 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 1 0.204 0.261 2 684012 1 0.224 0.401 3 684021 1 0.241 0.486 4 684022 1 0.118 0.344 5 684031 1 0.076 0.246 6 684032 1 0.597 0.759 7 684041 1 0.069 0.202 8 684042 1 0.208 0.429 9 684051 1 0.075 0.231 10 684052 1 0.031 0.141 11 684061 1 0.097 0.235 12 684062 1 0.373 0.572 13 684071 1 0.076 0.126 14 684072 1 0.034 0.178 15 684081 1 0.081 0.270 16 684082 1 0.055 0.177 17 684091 1 0.038 0.182 18 684092 1 0.237 0.447 19 684101 1 0.282 0.521 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 1 0.058 0.161 21 684111 1 0.117 0.248 22 684112 1 0.073 0.230 23 684121 1 0.020 0.138 24 684122 1 0.161 0.394 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.148 0.307 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.133 0.162 MEDIAN 1 0.089 0.247 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.152 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.020 0.126 LOWER HINGE 1 0.064 0.180 UPPER HINGE 1 0.216 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.597 0.759 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.092 2.190 12.857 0.088 -0.113 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.080 0.487 3.378 0.096 -0.109 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.077 1.520 11.586 0.083 -0.052 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.071 1.595 10.002 0.075 -0.011 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.086 1.102 9.601 0.093 -0.032 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.089 1.160 7.421 0.100 -0.171 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 1.764 13.571 0.087 -0.033 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.085 0.989 5.417 0.093 -0.081 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.061 0.512 4.287 0.069 -0.035 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.064 0.365 2.899 0.071 -0.013 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.069 0.320 4.194 0.078 -0.049 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.071 1.134 8.467 0.082 -0.147 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.092 1.346 8.202 0.087 -0.030 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.051 0.290 2.922 0.058 -0.009 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.085 0.942 4.881 0.091 -0.025 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.070 0.635 4.031 0.079 -0.029 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.059 0.956 6.252 0.061 -0.023 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.074 0.992 5.277 0.081 -0.095 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.081 0.861 7.541 0.087 -0.060 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.069 0.414 4.401 0.076 -0.029 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.071 -0.556 9.729 0.078 -0.060 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.075 0.411 3.582 0.084 -0.033 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.064 0.539 3.890 0.068 -0.007 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.074 1.628 9.984 0.080 -0.032 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.075 0.900 6.849 0.081 -0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.011 0.601 3.253 0.011 0.044 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.074 0.949 5.835 0.081 -0.033 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.016 0.803 5.553 0.012 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.051 -0.556 2.899 0.058 -0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.069 0.451 4.112 0.075 -0.071 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.085 1.253 9.665 0.088 -0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.092 2.190 13.571 0.100 -0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.409 0.100 0.006 0.237 3.309 0.133 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.133 SERIES 684021 AND 684112 249 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 684041 AND 684042 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.474 0.461 0.466 0.503 0.457 0.429 0.393 0.324 SDEV 0.152 0.162 0.178 0.183 0.182 0.159 0.155 0.150 SERR 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.960 0.953 0.948 0.939 0.920 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.998 0.050 0.503 3.310 0.060 -0.203 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.369 0.158 -0.105 104 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.67 1.00 1.07 1.74 5.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.203 0.035 -0.025 -0.019 0.001 0.043 -0.101 -0.058 0.055 -0.041 PACF -0.203 -0.006 -0.020 -0.029 -0.009 0.043 -0.088 -0.102 0.029 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.122 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.041 -0.203 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.010 -0.023 -0.026 0.005 0.025 -0.112 -0.072 0.039 -0.044 PACF -0.002 -0.010 -0.023 -0.026 0.005 0.024 -0.113 -0.074 0.038 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.124 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.998 0.049 0.637 3.855 0.051 0.112 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.112 -0.001 -0.024 -0.027 0.003 0.012 -0.116 -0.081 0.024 -0.045 PACF 0.112 -0.013 -0.023 -0.022 0.009 0.010 -0.121 -0.056 0.040 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.122 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.013 0.112 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES